A Look Back at 2019:
Around this time of year I find it very useful to take a look back at lessons learned from previous selection committees. The NET era began in the 2018-19 season, thus we only have one true season to do an apples to apples comparison with. Among the snubs of the 2019 NCAA field were two teams I’d like to highlight, TCU and Texas. A rather fascinating duo at surface level, considering they were both members of the Big XII, the top-rated conference last season. So, why did the committee leave these teams out? Why were so many bracketologists wrong about TCU (including Rocco)? Let’s dive in…
2019 Texas
First, here is the 2019 Texas Resume via Warren Nolan, please note that Texas won the NIT and the NIT results are included below post Selection Sunday:
The Horns were projected by many for most of the season to be a tournament team. Texas had big wins under their belt over North Carolina (N), Purdue (H), Kansas State (A), and Kansas (H). The one piece of criteria in which folks overlooked, is a simple yet important detail. The amount of total losses the Longhorns racked up over the year and in the ultra competitive Big 12 Conference - 16 total. No team with over 15 losses in a season has been selected as an At-Large. Texas would have broken the model, but did not. This was a clear message from the committee that the 16+ loss mark is a deal-breaker.
2019 TCU
Our next case-study requires a bit more deep-diving to really get to the outcome. This is the resume of the 2018-19 TCU Horned Frogs, another team who made a run to the NIT Final Four. So please disregard the late March/early April results:
Before we dig in, here is the complete 1-68 Seed List from last year for your review. You will recall that Belmont, Temple, Arizona State and St. John’s were the last four teams selected and it was also announced that the first team out was UNC-Greensboro.
How can this occur when 182/195 bracketologists on the Bracket Matrix projected TCU in the field, you ask?
Let’s take a closer look. TCU was just 3-9 against the top quadrant with one win in Q1A (At Iowa State). The At Texas win was in the NET 40’s on Selection Sunday, making that win a Q1B win at time of selections. The Frogs were 6-4 against Q2 (removing the NIT wins). They only had two true road wins during the season (Iowa State, SMU). The three neutral court wins came against teams well outside of the field (USC, Ind. State, Bucknell). And they contributed three total home wins over the field (ISU, Florida, and Baylor).
Given the above information, I think TCU’s fate boiled down to two main sticking points.
1) Winning pct. against the top two Quadrants: 3-9 vs Q1, 9-13 vs. top 2 Q’s.
2) Did not accomplish enough away from home. The Frogs had 10 true road opportunities in the top two quadrants and only won twice (Iowa State, SMU. Only Iowa State made the field).
So, how does this apply to 2020?
Some of you may know where I am going with this, and if you said the 2020 Big Ten Conference, you are correct. The Big 10 has more teams (14) than the Big 12 (10), and that basic fact adds even more complexity than we faced in 2019. The decisions and precedents set last year are more than likely to have impacts on a multiple Big Ten programs on March 15th. Let’s take a look at who they might be.
Compares to 2019 Texas (16 losses):
1) Purdue: 14-12 overall record. Remaining Games: At Wisconsin, At Iowa. Home: Michigan, Indiana, Rutgers. Boilermakers have to go at least 3-2 here. A third loss means they will hit 16 losses in the Big 10 Tournament.
2) Minnesota: 12-12 overall record. Remaining Games: At NW, At Wisconsin, At Indiana. Home: Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska. Gophers do not have the same level of wins as Purdue, they need to go 4-2 or 5-1 to have any chance from here.
3) Indiana: 16-9 overall record. Remaining Games: At Minnesota, At Purdue, At Illinois. Home: Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Hoosiers do not have the resume strength without some of these wins. It’s all on the line for the Hoosiers here, they will need to win at least two games mathematically - but likely need three or four of these wins.
4) Wisconsin: 15-10 overall record. Remaining Games: At Michigan, At Indiana. Home: Purdue, Rutgers, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Badgers have a great current resume, but a late collapse would be the best comp to Texas of these four teams. Badgers still need to get at least two wins to be anywhere near safe.
You can see above that the 20-game conference schedule of the Big Ten makes it a nearly impossible mathematical possibility for the league to send over 11 members to the NCAA’s, even in a year like this one. Nine is the most likely number based on what we know thus far.
Compares to 2019 TCU (rough Quad records, and/or lack of wins away from home):
1) Purdue: Again the Boilers are in double-danger based on what we know. They are 3-9 vs Quad 1 (one win over Q1A), 7-10 against the top two Quads, and two additional losses in Quad 3 to add to the concern.
2) Minnesota: 4-10 vs. Q1/6-12 vs. Top 2 Q’s. Gophers have a lot of work to do.
3) Indiana: 4-7 vs. Q1/6-9 vs. Top 2 Q’s. Also Hoosiers lack any road wins over any Q1 or Q2 opponents. Two neutral court wins over UConn and Notre Dame give Indiana something to build on, but a true road win is likely needed down the stretch.
4) Rutgers: 2-6 vs. Q1/7-7 vs. Top 2 Q’s. It is well-known at this point that the Scarlet Knights need another win or two away from home. The only one to speak of is at Q3 Nebraska thus far.
In summary, both 2019 Texas and 2019 TCU will continue to be relavant examples for the rest of the 2020 Big 10 season and something to keep in mind while watching the string play out.
Bracketology Notes:
- Our rock steady top four, has become a rock steady top seven. Duke, Dayton, and Maryland are stabilizing in the five, six, and seven spots respectively. Teams in the 8-20 positions is where things get pretty difficult. Florida State found themselves as the eighth team selected, but mainly due to Seton Hall, Louisville, West Virginia, and Auburn all losing over the weekend. It made FSU practically the last man standing. You factor those four teams losing over the weekend combined with more impressive wins from Creighton, Penn State, and Kentucky plus a resurgence from Oregon and you start to comprehend the chaos in this area of the Seed List. I’ll admit I am slowly bringing Penn State up based solely on the negative Bracket Preview information we witnessed. Despite that, it is enough to get the Nittany Lions into the final 3-seed position today.
- Ohio State and Michigan have had rollercoaster campaigns in 2019-20, but have recently stepped it up. The Buckeyes beat up Purdue over the weekend and Michigan took care of Indiana with ease. Arizona also pulled off a Bay Area road sweep, and their NET is up to 8th besides a somewhat unparallel resume.
- Speaking of Bay Area sweeps, the Arizona State Sun Devils pulled it off themselves. ASU now posseses six true road wins and the resume continues to improve and they have finally cracked the top 50 in NET. Bobby Hurley’s bunch is getting hot at the right time. Tomorrow night will be massive in the SoCon as ETSU hosts Furman. Each team has just two losses in conference, with Furman currently holding the tiebreaker. The Paladins have been a projected bid-stealer here for the past couple of weeks, this is an opportunity to really gain separation. I will be reporting live from ETSU tomorrow for this one, follow along here at Bracketeer.org.
- Cincinnati was able to survive at East Carolina on Sunday, giving them control of the American. With Arkansas and NC State losing over the weekend, Cincy now has the resume to be invited to the dance regardless. The two at-large spots now belong to Georgetown and Richmond. The Hoyas were phenomenal in their win on the road at Butler and now have a worthy body of work that warrants selection. Richmond picked up the final bid after a narrow comparison against Utah State. The Spiders win over Wisconsin, at URI, and overall body of work was barely enough.
New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
AAC - Cincinnati
ACC - Duke
MAAC - Siena
MEAC - Norfolk State
Pac-12 - Oregon
SEC - Kentucky
Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Furman)
FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Utah State, Purdue, Alabama, Mississippi State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Stanford, NC State, Arkansas, South Carolina
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