Bracketology 02.26.21

BRACKET NOTES
Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.

- Depsite the loss last night, Ohio State remained secure as the final one-seed. Aiding the Buckeyes were losses by Alabama, Illinois and Iowa this week. Villanova has played fewer games, but should they continue to win and win the Big East Tournament, I can envision the Wildcats taking the fourth one-seed by Selection Sunday. On the two-seed line, I have West Virginia trading places with Iowa. It actually wasn’t as simple as I had expected. Despite losing last night convincingly, Iowa actually saw their resume improve somewhat. The Hawkeye road win at Michigan State now means more because the Spartans are on the board (more on them in a minute). The comparison between WV and the Hawkeyes is a narrow one. Ultimately I tilt to the Mountaineers due to stronger road wins (TTech, TX, OK St) and equal (eight) wins against the board as Iowa.

- The middle of the bracket (anywhere from 15-27 on the Big Board) is a complete mess. I am giving Tennessee the benefit of the doubt at number 15 due to the bracket reveal, although the resume says they belong lower. Arkansas has a really clean resume (nothing bad at all) and I think that earns them the final protected seed (16th overall) instead of Creighton - who has three ugly home losses in quad three.

- UCLA is the new leader of the Pac-12 following USC’s loss to Colorado. The Bruins still don’t have the greatest resume, but giving them a nudge here to the eight-seed line for being in first. San Diego State also took over first place in the Mountain West after winning the first leg over Boise State last night. That is just enough to push the Aztecs up to the nine-line. Boise State remains in relatively the same position for now, however getting swept would put the Broncos in some dangerous waters.

- Everyone’s favorite topic - the Bubble. Well, let’s start with Michigan State. Spartans have had a ridiculous week. Last Saturday, they won at Indiana. Then of course they beat Illinois and Ohio State at home this week, to completely turn things around. As things stand, the Spartans belong in the field. With losses from Seton Hall, Xavier, Stanford and others this week - the final spot was very difficult. I’m sticking with Richmond, who has the most impressive body of work away from home. As for Xavier and Stanford, I think the scales have tipped and they need to go get another tourney-caliber win to get back in the field. As for Georgia Tech and Duke, tons of upside with both here. G-Tech still has the home losses to Mercer and Georgia State that they cannot escape, perhaps one more key win flips their fate. Duke has the nice home wins over Virginia and Clemson, but they have nothing better than NC State on the road. Both GT and Duke face each other next week, so this could easily sort itself out on the court. Richmond is nowhere near comfortable in this final spot.

- The 13-seeds are stronger than ever today. Belmont took a tough loss last night at Eastern Kentucky, and that dropped the Bruins down into this seeding area. Nick Musczynski missed the game, however. Assuming he gets back to full strength, the Bruins are just as dangerous. Also, Furman joins the mix. The Paladins have tremendous upside with guys like Mike Bothwell, Noah Gurley and Clay Mounce. Not a team a four-seed would be excited to face. By now you should know about Toledo and UC Santa Barbara. UCSB has won 11-straight and posess P6-level talent. Gauchos’ PG Devearl Ramsey is second in the nation in assist to turnover ratio. Toledo throws a five-out attack at opposing defenses, which makes them incredibly difficult to defend as anyone on the floor can hit from deep. Let’s see if this quartet can get to the dance. If so, watch out.

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
MVC - Drake (own tie-breaker if both Bulldogs and Loyola-Chicago tie)
MWC - San Diego State
Pac-12 - UCLA
SoCon - Furman
Southland - Abilene Christian

Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly unlikely, annual average is 2.4 per season)

NCAA ALTERNATE TEAMS: Xavier, Stanford, Georgia Tech, Duke
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Indiana, Ole Miss, Minnesota, Utah State
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Bracketolgy 02.22.21

BRACKET NOTES
Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.

- Iowa made the leap from the three-seed line to the two-seed line to replace Oklahoma. Iowa has really performed at a high-level lately and most of the team sheet metrics for the Hawkeyes are tremendous. On paper, I personally prefer West Virginia by the slimist of margins. But the way the committee had Iowa higher than me on Bracket Reveal Saturday, I’m swallowing my pride and placing Iowa as the last two-seed. Keep in mind, if Iowa were to stay hot (they play at Michigan and at Ohio State this week), they could actually be on the one-line very soon. Big “if” though.

- Kansas secured a season sweep over Texas Tech. With no real negatives on the Jayhawks resume, that helps elevate KU above Creighton and Missouri for the final fourth-seed today. Jayhawks were placed in Gonzaga’s region however, which probably isn’t the greatest news.

- Arkansas continues to climb, despite having theiir game postponed on Saturday. The Hogs simply have nothing bad on their resume and the metrics have really swung in their favor lately, ranking in the Top 24 in all listed team sheet metrics (KPI, POM, SOR, BPI, SAG). Just enough juice to put them above a Clemson team still lacking a significant road win. That win at Mizzou is paying big seeding dividends for the Razorbacks right now.

- The 9-thru-11 lines are pretty messy. I also have Oregon mixed in with this bunch, UO is taking the final eight-seed for now. Maryland has the incredibly unbalanced resume, but also posess tremendous wins on the road - the committee likes this, especially for seeding. UCLA and North Carolina certainly have resume flaws in quadrant records, but a further look shows excellent SOR numbers and enough achieved on the road to be slightly above the rest of the pack. This is a razor thin group in general. Loyola-Chicago is a tempting team to move up above the likes of UNC or UCLA, but historically their profile warrants a lower seed due to the mostly empty calories in high-end wins. The 10-seed line provides the Ramblers a balanced projection within the ranges of possibilities, and the good news (if it happens) this is a much higher liklihood for the Ramblers to advance to the second weekend.

- Per usual, the final spots were very difficult to settle on. Trying to simulate a committee debate between Stanford and Minnesota is not simple, for example. Half the room can lean on Stanford’s ridiculous circumstances this season and the work they’ve done away from Maples Pavilion (nearly all of it). The other half of the room can argue about how the Gophers beat Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa (although 0-8 road record). For me it comes down to which team provided more reasons to leave them out? And right now, I think that’s Minnesota. Furthermore, the Gophers would lose out to St. Bonaventure in a similar debate, I believe.

TIEBREAKER MADNESS
Each league is taking their own approach to tiebreakers for their conference tournament seeding. And it’s more messy than many of you care to explore. I don’t blame you. I think I’ve managed to at least get a grip on a few of these and ideally the next couple of weeks will sort out most of the tough ties. The main focus today is on the Atlantic 10. St. Bonaventure and VCU are both 9-3, UMass is 6-2. They have matching win percentages. But the conference will prefer the team with the most games played, which knock UMass out of the running for number-one. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents Which became a ridiculous exercise in itself, I went clear down the A10 standings until finally landing on George Mason (who just beat VCU, but lost to the Bonnie) to determine that the top seed would be the Bonnies today.

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
ACC - Florida State
America East - UMBC
Atlantic 10 - St. Bonaventure
MAAC - Monmouth
Summit - South Dakota

Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (AAC, Wichita State)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Minnesota, UConn, Richmond, Duke
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Saint Louis, Georgia Tech, St. John's, Utah State
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Bracketology 02.19.21

BRACKET NOTES - Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.

- Oklahoma has temporarily benefited with the Houston loss to Wichita State. The Sooners, West Virginia and Iowa are now positioned above Houston in seeding order. OU comes in as the final two-seed today and matched up with Southland leaders, Sam Houston State, which is a fun Southwest flavored opener. Houston is still fairly safe as a three-seed and have a stronger resume than Virginia at this point. Today, the Cougars draw a matchup against Colgate.

- Florida State made another big statement at home on Monday by beating Virginia. The only thing holding FSU back from getting higher than any of the Big 12 teams above them, is a lack of information on road games. FSU has the nice win at Louisville, but are just 1-2 overall. Until they can demonstrate a bit more away from home, it will be hard to reach the nirvana of the top eight or so.

- USC continues to steamroll through the Pac-12. The main thing holding the Trojans back is a lack of top-end opportunities.

- Maryland is back in the field after sweeping Nebraska. The Terps are now two games over .500 vs. D1 competition, but also have Rutgers on Sunday. Makes their case unique. Maryland has the top-end wins to skyrocket past the bubble in terms of seeding. You’ll notice they are a nine-seed today because of that. But they are on thin ice for selection still. A clear delineation between selection and seeding. In other words, Terps fans should not worry about Maryland playing in the First Four. They are either in with a nice seed or entirely out. Remaining schedule is favorable, so hopes and expectations are high here.

- Minnesota is the team that needs to be really looked at hard. The committee will always value what you do away from home, and selection committee Chairman Mitch Barnhardt confirmed this year is no different on the air. The Gophers are 0-8 on the road with only one true road game left, at Penn State in early March. Trying to simulate the discussion in the committee room about the Gophers is a fun thought. I think you can make strong cases for inclusion (wins over two number-one seeds and only team to beat Michigan thus far and over Iowa at the Barn), so the debate would be hot and heavy in that room. I see the Gophers still being invited for now, but very thin ice - for completely different reasons than Maryland.

- The first eight teams out: UConn, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis, Utah State, Richmond, Wichita State (in as AAC leader today), St. John’s and Ole Miss all have an argument right now to be included. I still believe Stanford’s resume with their ridiculous journey this year is still a notch above these eight in terms of achievement. So the Cardinal remain in the field.

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
America East - Vermont
American - Wichita State
Mountain West - Boise State
NEC - Wagner

Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (AAC, Wichita State)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: UConn, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis, Utah State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Richmond, St. John's, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech

THE DRAW - HEADLINERS

• (8) Louisville vs. (9) Indiana. Regional rivals, tons of history.

• First Four: Drake vs. North Carolina. Cinderella type story vs. Blue Blood program for a spot in the main bracket.

• (5) USC vs. (12) Belmont. Evan Mobley vs. Nick Musczynski in the paint. Andy Enfield coached in the same conference (ASUN) as Belmont back in 2011-12.

• (4) Florida State vs. (13) Wright State. Battle of two teams who can completely catch fire.

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Bracketology 02.16.21

Can you believe the first conference tournament will begin next Thursday, February 25th? Thats right. The Horizon League will kick off perhaps our longest “Championship Week” ever by hosting the 5 thru 12 seeds participating in play-in rounds. The league wisely added a buffer in case they need additional time for make up games. I don’t know that I’m ready for teams seasons to start ending so quickly, but it always happens so fast. All we can do is enjoy the ride.

BRACKET REVEAL RECAP
This past Saturday, the actual Selection Committee formalized their Top 16 teams and had Dan Gavitt alongside Mitch Barnhardt (Committee Chair) answer a few questions about the selections. Here at Bracketeer.org, we did pretty well. Had the Top 16 all identified correctly, and mainly thought more of Missouri than Oklahoma. Not a major miss there, as they were swapped between three and four seed lines. Here is how it went down:

Current #MarchMadness Top 16 Seeds!

1. Gonzaga
2. Baylor
3. Michigan
4. Ohio St.
5. Illinois
6. Villanova
7. Alabama
8. Houston
9. Virginia
10. West Virginia
11. Tennessee
12. Oklahoma
13. Iowa
14. Texas Tech
15. Texas
16. Missouri#BracketPreview pic.twitter.com/FQzZxQ1rea

— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) February 13, 2021

A main takeaway for me is that Oklahoma is strong in top-end wins (over Bama, at Texas and now adding at West Virginia). The Sooners also have important home wins over Kansas and West Virginia to go along with no bad losses. But OU is just 5-5 overall against the top quadrant and 6-5 against the top two. Missouri had wins at Tennessee and at Arkansas, to go along with big wins over Illinois, Bama and Oregon (neutral). Yet the Tigers have slipped against non-tournament foes (both Mississippi schools and Auburn). This tells me that the committee not only likes the top-end wins but they are also pay attention perhaps to who you lose to.

Houston and Virginia came in 8th and 9th respectively, same as where we had them. UH is lighter on opportunities and lost twice to non-tourney foes (Tulsa and ECU on the road). The Cougars do have strong metrics though and wins over Texas Tech on neutral court, a win over Boise State and a sweep of SMU. Virginia was missing, and still is missing a Quad 1A win to anchor with. The Cavs best win is at Clemson which is in 1B currently and they have a single non-tournament foe loss to San Francisco. UVA also is slightly below Houston in most metrics as well, and two games behind the Cougars in total record vs. top three quadrants. All of this was just enough, to keep Houston on the two-seed line.

How all of this impacts team comparisons down bracket remains somewhat of a mystery, but at least we have more information to work with than before. Besides, five of the 16 have already lost since the show. Other key confirmations where road wins and overall principles will be unaffected this season, despite no crowds and varying extremes in schedules/games played. Full speed ahead to March!

BRACKET NOTES - Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.

- Seed lines five thru eight went through a shake-up. I think USC is at a point where the need to be above teams like Kansas and Virginia Tech, because the Trojans are winning at a higher clip - especially on the road. And those wins matter. Arkansas picked up the perfect win for a team that had no bad on the resume, but was lacking a tourney-caliber win. Not only did the Hogs get that win, they got it on the road. In turn, the Razorbacks shot past the entire bubble picture and on to the eight-seed line.

- Loyola-Chicago took a leap of faith over the weekend, despite splitting at Drake. Allow me to explain, as this is an area often confused with the selection and seeding process. As of Friday, the Ramblers were my first team out. My view was that the resume needed a strong win to anchor with. Loyola has that now, and everything about their predictive metrics fly off the shelf. Ramblers are up to number 37 on the big board and can probably afford another loss, depending on who its against and by how much. Also, we have made the swift move to call the Ramblers the official MVC leader now. That leaves Drake hanging on to a spot in the play-in game.

- The final spot was really difficult between St. Bonaventure and UConn. I think there is a case to be made for each. Bonnies have a “clean” resume right now, no losses to frown on outside of the top two quadrants. UConn can’t boast that, but the Huskies do have better road wins and the injury case with Bouknight. We will stick with St. Bonaventure until further notice, but this is really tight. Also, remember that Utah State is currently stealing an at-large bid away. So if that were not happening, we would have room for both (not likely). Keep in mind, an average of 2.4 at-large bids per year are stolen during Championship Week. So hoping for none or one is typically unrealistic.

- New quality metrics teams are entering as Conference leaders today. Between Wright State, UCSB, and Colgate, we have a trio of talented rosters. If these three get in the tournament, entertainment value increases and 4/5 seeds are in for a scare or worse.

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
A10 - VCU
Big West - UC Santa Barbara
CAA - James Madison
CUSA - Western Kentucky
Horizon - Wright State
MVC - Loyola-Chicago
NEC - Mount St. Mary’s
Patriot - Colgate
Summit - North Dakota State

Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (MWC, Utah State)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: UConn, Richmond, Saint Louis, St. John's
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Ole Miss, Maryland, Georgia Tech, SMU
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Bracketology 02.12.21

Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
America East - UMBC
NEC - Bryant
SoCon - UNC Greensboro

Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 2 (Conference USA and MWC, UAB & Utah State)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Loyola-Chicago, Richmond, St. John's, Saint Louis
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Maryland, UConn, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @roccomiller8