Bracketology

Bracketology 02.28.25

MID-WEEK NOTES

  • Florida’s loss to Georgia in Athens began the process of separting the elite six teams with 1-seed worthy resumes. The Gators still have terrific overall power numbers, but are the 6th team overall in resume, despite owning the best win in the country at Auburn. Alabama, Houston, and Tennessee each slid up one place to allow the Cougars to land as a 1-seed for the first time this season.

  • Sometimes having an easy win can be the best recipe. It paid off for Wisconsin, which destroyed poor Washington and watched Iowa State and Texas A&M suffer rough losses. The Cyclones were stunned at Oklahoma State, sinking them to a 4-seed for the first time all year. Texas A&M took a home loss to Vanderbilt, which isn’t ideal but at least Vandy is a clear tournament team now. The carnage yielded the Badgers back up to a 2-seed.

  • Missouri was able to finally breakthrough as a 4-seed, thanks to a four-game losing streak from Purdue and a 30-point win over South Carolina.

  • Louisville was a surprise leap to a 6-seed today, earning the 24th overall spot. The Cardinals do not have a ton of upper-echelon wins, but the style-points combined with a lack of losses are adding up.

  • For the first time this year, Baylor is excluded from the forecast. A warning was issued last week, but the Bears did not do anything to improve matters, losing once again at Cincinnati. The Bears are now 10-12 when you remove Q4 results (aka easy wins). To make matters worse, Josh Ojianwuna is out for the season. I believe this will be discussed among the committee. The Bears are 1-4 without him so far, an OT home win over bubbly West Virginia. BU has lost road games to Colorado and Cincinnati without him in this stretch. The good news is they host Oklahoma State tomorrow, which should help them get on track. Finishing at TCU (Frogs already won in Waco) and hosting Houston, will require another win as well. Dicey.

  • The ACC bubble is a mess. We have SMU, UNC, and/or Wake Forest. The Deacs of course lost at home to Virginia. WF’s third bad loss this month. It’s tough to stomach. SMU won at California and continues to hang around with a wildly good 10-2 record away from home. North Carolina has started to pick up some wins but remains 1-10 in their 11 hardest games and has the home Stanford loss to deal with. I do think one of these three will find its way into the field. We all know who the committee chairman is, and I will leave it at that.

  • Boise State and San Francisco provide interesting options, but I'm not convinced about either one quite yet. Boise State is playing much better and picking up NCAA-level wins, just defeating Utah State rather handily. San Francisco, of course, beat Boise State in a home game earlier in the season. The Dons also beat Saint Mary’s and just got a solid road win at Oregon State. Before the Dons' loss, the Beavers had only lost at home to Oregon and Saint Mary’s.

  • Georgia is a road win and an overall win short of being included. There is no precedent for including a team with only one road win (at Georgia Tech) or a losing record (9-11) in meaningful games. The Bulldogs finish with at Texas, at South Carolina, and home Vanderbilt. So the bid is right there for them to snatch long-term.

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

Several layers of bracket talk are coming soon! I’ll be on to discuss more teams and the overall tournament picture.

Begins Live February 28th at 5PM ET. Link will work for re-watching purposes as well. The panel, including me, will focus on mid-week changes and the bubble on today’s episode.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: San Francisco, Baylor, Georgia, George Mason

NEXT TEAMS OUT: North Carolina, UC Irvine, Wake Forest, Cincinnati

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.24.25

WEEKEND RECAP

  • We are at a crossroads. Six supreme teams are 1-seed worthy. With Auburn and Duke being the obvious picks. Then there are Florida, Alabama, Houston, and Tennessee with incredible resumes for various reasons. They all handled business this weekend and the two tailing teams achieved high-quality wins. Vols won at Texas A&M, and Houston held off Iowa State. It still was not quite enough to warrant a change at the top quite yet. After all, Florida has just three losses total and the best road win money can buy (at Auburn). And Alabama packs such a mean punch with its eight wins in Quad 1A (elite) and nine wins against the field. Houston will take the court in Lubbock tonight. An opportunity for the Cougars to further cloud up the picture. Save the date: March 5th. Florida at Alabama.

  • Quite the opposite happened with the next six teams from last Friday!

  • Enter Michigan State. The Spartans did not see their name displayed at the February bracket preview. But they were mentioned as one of the next teams out by Bubba Cunningham, UNC AD, and committee chairman. Perhaps the exercise also served as a major wake-up call for the Spartans. They are 3-0 since with three critical victories. At Michigan on Friday, at Illinois, and at home against Purdue. They won each of these games by nine or more points, which clearly shows that they are in charge of the Big Ten race and becoming more appealing in seeding.

  • Saint Mary’s continues to climb. A night the program won’t forget as they handled Gonzaga in the Kennel, earning the season sweep, and clinching the WCC Title with two games to spare. Incredible stuff. Gaels are very close to that 5-seed line that they have landed on in recent years.

  • Oregon rallied late to win at Wisconsin and suddenly the sun is shining in Eugene despite it being the Winter. We all remember this team winning the first-ever Players Era event in Las Vegas. The Big Ten has been brutal at times, but this win helped considerably. The Ducks had four Q1 road wins, but all against non-NCAA projected teams. Now they have a fifth and a clear top-of-the-resume road win.

  • Bubble madness just continues. VCU sent George Mason into the at-large pool by taking over the A-10 race. That leaves us with no projected bid steals (unrealistic). And that means room for Indiana and Xavier, which I am not convinced on either but of course, both are coming off wins. I normally would not have Arkansas (who is two games under .500 in Q1-3 contests) included, but I am taking a shortcut! Arkansas hosts Texas on Wednesday, and I will have the winner in the field on Friday. So I felt it was logical to pencil in Arkansas as a placeholder for Friday. A true winner-in, loser-out game in Fayetteville coming this week.

  • Robert Morris has been scorching hot. The Colonials finally have reached the Horizon League mountain top! One win away from clinching a share of the trophy. RMU has won 12 of 13 and are one of the best stories in the nation.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: George Mason, Boise State, Texas, San Francisco

NEXT TEAMS OUT: UC Irvine, SMU, North Carolina, TCU

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.21.25

MID-WEEK NOTES

  • Alabama fell again, this time to Mizzou on the road. The Tide remains a 1-Seed, but for the first time, they are heading West.

  • Houston is inching closer to both Tennessee and Alabama. The perfect 8-0 true road record is sparkling and shiny. As is the Cougars’ performance dominance. They have a case now, based on those two unique factors. The Tennessee/Bama duo out-number the number of quality wins by a decent enough margin to hold on.

  • Arizona’s bounce-back win at Baylor gets them comfortable as a 3-seed for now

  • Mizzou stays a 5-seed, but just barely. At #17 overall on the seed list as of this moment. The Tigers got the big home win, but still own a 3-5 record away from Columbia. A couple of road wins should put them up to a protected seed soon. They still play Arkansas, Vandy, and Oklahoma on the road to work on their road win percentage.

  • BYU seems safe at the moment, they still do not have a ton on the road to be proud of, however. The Cougars’ 5-6 road/neutral record includes wins over Wyoming and NC State on “neutral courts.” Another road win around the West Virginia level (which was key!) would help solidify BYU for good. They have the Arizona schools on the road next and have a home run opportunity at Iowa State at the end of the season.

  • VCU/George Mason will finally meet tomorrow in Richmond. VCU will be the heavy favorite to win that one based on how ridiculous the Rams have been all year at home. That would enter GMU into the at-large discussion for our bi-weekly bracket forecast exercise here. Both teams have collected road wins that are not exactly easy to win, and also not above the bubble level road wins either. They mean something. However, how much it means when compared to the power conference sludge controlling the bubble is more guesswork than surefire absolutes. Let’s see how this A10 showdown plays out, and take it from there.

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

Back in the saddle today, join in for several layers bracket talk.

Begins Live February 21st at 5PM ET. Link will work for re-watching purposes as well. The panel, including me, will focus on mid-week changes and the bubble on today’s episode.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Atlantic-10): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Xavier, TCU, San Francisco, Ohio State

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Indiana, Georgia, UC Irvine, Arkansas

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.17.25

WEEKEND SUMMARY

Welcome to the home stretch of the regular season!

With the initial committee meetings in the books and the first hint of how the committee is viewing the top of the board, it’s time to adjust.

Upon review, no major surprises. An encouraging sign. Yet, still room to brush up on how they may see a few teams:

Purdue - The Boilermakers were a clean 2-seed for the committee, as you see above. I had them below Iowa State and as a 3-seed due to having an additional loss, but it was close. Now the Boilers have two additional losses when compared to the Cyclones, and are a clear 3-seed.

Wisconsin - The Committee was high on the Badgers and Greg Gaard’s bunch made them look wise by winning the game as mentioned earlier in Mackey. Now, the Badgers have a strong case to be the final 2-seed.

Arizona - A tad lower than we thought but ultimately the Wildcats were the last of the 3-seeds. Then, they of course took a home loss to Houston, furthering the complexities of a very-high caliber Wildcats team that owns a middling resume.

St. John’s - Included in the Top 16, Bracketeer had the Johnnies #17. So very close, and as the leaders of the Big East, I am kind of glad from the conference leader perspective to see SJU included. They go out and take care of Creighton on Sunday. Now a very secure 4-seed here.

Ole Miss - My biggest surprise of the reveal. Not that the Rebels were not included - it was in the part where NCAA Tournament Chairman, Bubba Cunningham, listed others considered. There was zero mention of the Rebs. A team with road wins over Alabama and Louisville at the top of its resume, I was pretty surprised. Like others above, things became more complicated with the Egg Bowl loss at home.

All and all, nothing major compared to other years. I believe the forecast is tweaked and ready to expand these decisions out for a full field.

CASE OF THE MONDAY's ON THE bUBBLE

The bubble picture is being dictated by the power conference contenders. They take on losses and make it more difficult to select them based on committee precedent since 2019 (when the NET era began).

Ohio State is the ultimate teeter-totter team. Now sitting at 15-11 overall. When you remove its Q4 results, they are a 9-11 ballclub. That is a non-starter for being selected based on previous committee decisions as documented here several times before.

That Ohio State type of resume applies to SEC bubble hopefuls in Texas, Arkansas, and Georgia as well. This created a deeper level of searching for today’s final team. There are assurances and securities with the first 36 at-large teams, but finding that 37th team proved to be more challenging than I’ve seen all season, today.

The options were Indiana, San Francisco, Xavier, Santa Clara, North Carolina, or an SMU team that just tripped at home vs. Wake Forest. It was simple to dismiss the Ponies. IU and UNC have taken a high percentage of losses in many at-bats against high-level teams.

Santa Clara has such an intriguing set of road wins, headlined by Gonzaga and McNeese (the only team to win in either building). But the surplus of subpar losses for the Broncos is a killer and it’s difficult to see the committee getting aligned on them.

That left us with San Francisco or Xavier. The Musketeers have won at Marquette and own home wins over UConn and Wake Forest. A higher-end top of the resume than the Dons. The issue is they are still slightly below .500 with 10 combined losses in Quads 1 & 2A and only nine wins against teams in the top three.

San Francisco has the lone home win over Top 20 Saint Mary’s. An impressive and meaningful result to get into the discussion, but it was still at home, where the Dons are still undefeated. The issue is road wins are not quite there with the LMU and Pepperdine efforts being at the top. The win over Loyola-Chicago in Milwaukee has not carried the weight it once appeared to have.

After chewing on all of the above for likely way too long, Xavier enters the field as the final team in. They also have a manageable last five games left and should they handle business, I believe they will be in - making the forecast a little more realistic.

The Dons finish with two key games out of three, facing Oregon State on the road and Gonzaga in the NBA’s Chase Center. Certainly, a split is required, and perhaps a sweep can get the Dons over the hump for good.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2 (A-10, Big West): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Ohio State, Arkansas, Texas, San Francisco

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Indiana, SMU, Georgia, Santa Clara

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.14.25

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

Begins Live February 14th at 5PM ET. Link will work for re-watching purposes as well. We will focus on the Top 16 Bracket Reveal on today’s episode.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2 (A-10, Big West): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Wake Forest, Georgia, SMU, San Francisco

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Indiana, Texas, Xavier, Boise State

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

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