Bracketology

Bracketology 02.10.25

WEEKEND SUMMARY - UPPER ECHELON

Programming Note: I will be on the FIELDING THE 68 Live Show later today at 5PM ET, be sure to tune in for a deeper breakdown on the majority of at large level teams. You should be able to watch it right from here:

The story at the top, is the Florida Gators. The Gators critical win at Auburn has turned the race for a 1-seed into a five-horse race. Florida tightened the gap significantly with the strong group of four we had on Friday - Auburn/Duke/Alabama/Tennessee.

Duke also fell to Clemson on the road, and they are now coming up short in direct comps against Alabama.

That left Duke, Tennessee, and Florida for the final two 1-Seeds. Ultimately the heavy road win volume for the Vols and the Duke’s dominant performance-rankings kept them both up there at this point. Florida heads to Mississippi State tomorrow in another quality road opportunity, with a chance to impress once again.

Texas A&M left no doubt that they belong as a 2-seed. The Aggies impressed in another high quality road victory at Missouri.

Arizona exacted revenge on Texas Tech to split the season series. Both of these teams are performing at a high level, and are secure in 3-seed territory until further notice.

St. John’s earned the road win at UConn and it absolved remaining work the Red Storm had yet to exhibit. A road win over the field was needed to get firmly into protected seed range. Now its even better than expected as SJU won out on direct comparisons with teams like Kansas, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. That allowed the Red Storm to move all the way to a 3-seed.

WEEKEND SUMMARY - TROUBLING BUBBLE

I was at UC San Diego’s momentous road win at UC Irvine over the weekend, and one can hope that a committee member was there too or perhaps tuned in on ESPNU. The Tritons took a two-point halftime lead and ballooned into an 18-point road win over a Top 10 defense in America. UCSD now has two high level road wins, which is vital for bubble tiebreaker decisioning. UC Irvine remains in the field as the projected Big West AQ. UCSD was the last team in on Friday, and they will remain in the field as an at-large.

Wake Forest did what they needed to do, sweeping the Bay Area road trip. Demon Deacons are pretty clearly in at this point especially considering what the rest of the options on the bubble look like.

One kind of mess comes from power conference carnage. Ohio State and Texas keep yo-yoing back and forth with a .500 meaningful record or a couple games short (which they both are today). Buckeyes have seven games left, and need to win at least four of them. Their next three are at home. I still really like this squad and their pieces, so they could/should be right back into the field with a win over Washington on Wednesday.

As for Texas, I am less optimistic but the SEC provides nonstop opportunities. Same holds true for Arkansas. Hogs narrowly fell to Alabama, but its another sign that they’ve corrected a lot of early season struggles. More opportunities are coming quickly.

Another kind of mess is trying to sort out SMU, San Francisco, VCU, Boise State, and Santa Clara. The headaches begin with the ponies. I cannot believe they landed as the last team in today, but at the end of the day they are 8-2 in road/neutral games included a couple of true road wins in Q2. Which is better than San Francisco’s road damage thus far. The Dons win at Q3 LMU on Saturday helped, but still more work to do on that end of things. Dons have the Saint Mary’s home win, which is better than any team SMU has beat by a mile. SMU got the ultimate nod due to overall body of work, they’ve been perfect in games vs. non-NCAA level without a hiccup. Dons have losses to WSU, Bradley, and Santa Clara. Not bad losses in my view, but three non-NCAA teams as of now.

The surprise is VCU. The more I thought about their case to get in, the more I appreciated it. They are .500 or better at every category. The Q4 loss that hurts against Seton Hall, happened way before the Pirates had issues, and is somewhat explainable. Rams have won half of their challenging road games in the top two quads (Dayton, St. Joe’s, URI). Another road win at Loyola-Chicago is particularly interesting because it is the only Ramblers’ home loss all year. The other interesting point that VCU may want to add to its presentation is nobody has blown them out. I covered their loss at New Mexico that ended in a seven-point loss, and they played them hard. The bad loss to Seton Hall was in OT. Its worst loss, at Saint Louis, was by single digits.

San Francisco was the odd team out, but would have been the next option today. Dons are listed third on the “First Four Out” because Ohio State and Texas are likely right back into the bracket if they win during the mid-week.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Ohio State, Texas, San Francisco, Arkansas

NEXT TEAMS OUT: BYU, North Carolina, Santa Clara, Boise State

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Bracketology 02.07.25

BUBBLE ISSUES

Today’s delay is largely due to a current crisis within the bubble picture. There are flaws everywhere. As Thursday night ended, I knew there was a high likelihood of taking Ohio State into the field following the Buckeye home win over Maryland, despite still being under .500 in games that mean something (non-Q4). That is because they are the only team that has won on the road at Mackey Arena, the seed list at the top says that it’s the sixth-best road win money can buy. Plus the wins over Kentucky and Texas away from home provide supplemental evidence to the committee’s favorite quote. “Who did you play? Where did you play? How did you do?”

What I did not anticipate was a surplus of bubble illnesses. Teams like Arkansas, USC, Xavier, and others are a win or more away from .500 and do not have a road win quite as heavy as Purdue like the Buckeyes do. The Razorbacks are the closest but Kentucky has endured multiple home losses. Despite the supreme nature that provided John Calipari his dream revenge triumph this past Saturday, it doesn’t pack the same punch that Ohio State’s win at Purdue packed.

Another issue is there are no projected bid thieves. It would be a surprise if none occurred next month.

With SMU, they have such a clear divide in results. Performing amazingly well in all games vs. non-NCAA forecasted squads. Yet, falling every time to the NCAA-level teams. There is no stamp of approval within the win set yet, despite the very impressive 8-2 road/neutral record.

Vanderbilt has its own special ailment with its non-conference strength of schedule at 329 of 364 teams, they don’t have a lot of hope to be selected if this close to the bubble. Its best road win remains LSU, which is solid but its not convincing enough to be “safe.”

San Francisco joins the party after snapping its 11-game losing streak against Saint Mary’s. It was a massive milestone for the Dons, who remain perfect at home. The Dons’ best road win is still Pepperdine, deep in Quad 3, and the best neutral win is over Quad 3 Loyola-Chicago. The Dons have a chance for stronger consideration, should they win at LMU tomorrow.

UCF, Arizona State, and Pittsburgh have clearly taken on too much water to continue floating on the good side of the bubble.

Indiana and North Carolina? Both are at least two good wins away.

Ahh! Santa Clara. We love the Broncos! The KPI has them #47. They are the ONLY team to win at McNeese and Gonzaga. So much to love! The problem is four subpar losses and the other models have punished the Broncos. I independently am fascinated by all of this, but I cannot expect the committee to agree on them being included.

Still searching for two teams at this point!

UC San Diego keeps resurfacing…BYU keeps resurfacing.

The Cougars took a loss at home to Arizona in a big spot earlier this week. Plenty of reasons exist to leave them out now. However, there is nothing deliberately leaving BYU out. So they are they stay in for today.

And for the final spot in the field, we’re going to be bold and take the Tritons. This team is one of two to win at Utah State this season, and of course, making all kinds of history in its first season eligible for the dance. The biggest issue with the choice is that after the Utah State road win, all other wins don’t show up until Quad 3. UCSD likely needs a win at UC Irvine tomorrow in round two of the Big West Showdown regardless. Congrats for today, Big West!

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, SMU, San Francisco

NEXT TEAMS OUT: UCF, Arizona State, USC, Xavier

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.04.25

Happy Tuesday everybody!

College Basketball delivered perhaps its most surprising Saturday to date. With a handful of teams winning that had 20% or less chance to win pregame, according to Ken Pomeroy. Namely, Kansas State. The Wildcats had a 5% chance to win at Hilton Coliseum, per the model, and not only achieved the win but outright dominated the Cyclones.

The Big XII delivered two stunners on Saturday with Texas Tech stunning Houston despite multiple ejections. The Red Raiders had less than a 20% analytical chance of winning the game, yet pulled off an amazing road win. They are the highest riser, and have achieved 3-seed status thanks to a perfect 5-0 true road record anchored by the Houston and BYU road wins. Texas Tech is the only team to win at BYU this year, and the only team to win at Houston this year. If that remains, what an impressive pair of bullet points for a resume.

I had several thoughts on at-large level teams in the bracket during Monday’s Fielding The 68 Show.

Here is the full episode:

MONDAY NIGHT RECAP

Iowa State is back in the news following a drubbing at the Phog, in a 69-52 setback. Back-to-back blowout losses to the Cyclones have changed the tone around where they stand. After further analysis, I feel confident that the ISU resume is not quite where Texas A&M or Houston is. This pushed ISU to the best of the 3-seeds for the forecast. Quite stunning for a team that was a one-seed a few days ago. They will get some much-needed rest now:

Kansas earns a third high-quality win. That did enough to win out in the comparison with Michigan State late in the evening. Kansas moves up to a 3-seed, Spartans are the highest of the 4-seeds.

Heading into Monday, you may have noticed that Pittsburgh was the last projected team in the field. It was not an easy choice because Pitt, Georgia, and UCF all had different qualities to like and dislike. The Panthers made all of the forecasting struggles disappear in two poor hours of basketball, resulting in a lop-sided home loss to Virginia. Knights somehow make their way back into the bracket for now.

McNeese and Norfolk State survived crazy endings to stay on top of the Southland and MEAC respectively. The Spartans Brian Moore, Jr. had this miraculous buzzer-beater to beat N.C. Central:

Southern survived in OT against Jackson State to remain a perfect 9-0 in SWAC play. Northern Colorado remains in charge of the Big Sky thanks to a rally in the second half to eventually bury Idaho State.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Arizona State, SMU, Ohio State, Indiana

NEXT TEAMS OUT: USC, UC San Diego, Pittsburgh, Xavier

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 01.31.25

Closing January with Moves!

Movement across the landscape since Monday. Here is a quick rundown of how things fell by Friday A.M.

  • Tennessee played its way off the 1-seed line but hosts Florida tomorrow

  • Houston jumped the shark and now has road wins at Kansas, West Virginia, and UCF to go along with ridiculous performance measures.

  • Kentucky adds another quality road win at Tennessee and bumps back into the top ten overall

  • Razor thin differences between teams 14 (Wisconsin) thru 21 (Memphis) and its the difference of a couple of seed lines right now.

  • Same for 22 (Texas Tech) thru 29 (Saint Mary’s). Some great performance teams are being compared to much stronger resume teams, creating some mud in the middle.

  • UConn and Gonzaga continue to fight a bad resume, and the Huskies may be in deeper danger if they cannot get back to full strength or if they take a couple of bad losses to add to the Colorado loss.

  • Bubble is dicey and uncomfortable. The way it should be! Most discomforting is the SEC getting 13 of 16 members into the dance. Although the margins for Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma are thin. Vanderbilt needs more road work.

    • Making things more uncomfortable is sub-.500 Ohio State (7-8 ) in meaningful games being included. The precedent here would require extraordinary wins, and I think Purdue on the road and Kentucky in MSG qualify by a smidge. It is close. Do not be deceived by the Buckeyes’ 10-seed. That was primarily a result of the secondary seeding process, where tOSU excels. Consider them the last team in.

  • Nebraska helped its case with the win over Illinois last night but remains 7-8 in meaningful games and does not have the road resume that Ohio State owns.

  • BYU needs road work. SMU needs higher-quality wins, but I remain impressed with the no-bad losses from the Mustangs.

  • Indiana and North Carolina are hanging around, clearly, both have massive games coming up next. Not picking them to win, but opportunity is all you can ask for when bubbled.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Nebraska, Indiana, BYU, Wake Forest

NEXT TEAMS OUT: SMU, UC San Diego, North Carolina, North Texas

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 01.28.25

What’s that smell? Is it a Groundhog? Is it going to be February by this weekend?!

Another full week and wild Big Monday are now in the books for our 2024-25 College Hoops journey together. As the data materialized, the mysteries have expanded.

  • Can the SEC break the record of 11 bids by a single conference?

  • Will the A-10, American, MVC, and Big West be limited to one participant each?

  • Do Auburn and Alabama have friends in Lexington? Will they root against each other in Lexington?

  • In a year where Seattle hosts the first two rounds, Gonzaga will not be there?

The list is quite long, and there are many mysteries about what March may look like. You came here today to better understand what it would look like if the year ended this morning.

TOP SEEDS

Over the past 60 or so hours, our tightest battle at the top has withstood a flood. Iowa State and Tennessee may be even closer together now, then they were on Friday.

In summary, Iowa State had the edge after Saturday’s rally to pummel Arizona State late. That is because Tennessee fell just shy in a rock fight at Auburn. The combined results added to the body of work of both programs clearly favored the 17-2 Cyclones. Those Cyclones were well on their way to even greater Seed List heights with under three seconds left last night in Tucson. Then this happened:

From that point on, Arizona polished off an 11-point OT win. A stunned Cyclones team got on a plane back to Ames late last night.

A lot to process following one result, and in the end it goes down as part of the ISU story, a win became a loss. Bridging the gap even closer with Tennessee. Ultimately, the decision to stick with the Cyclones within today’s forecast is the right one based on what we understand about both teams. Iowa State has a slightly better high-end road record (4-2) despite than loss than the Vols (3-3) and slightly better records in each quadrant breakdown, despite each team having three losses overall. This race for the final 1-seed has been good theatre and should only continue with Tennessee hosting Kentucky tonight.

The other really big mover was Houston. A team who had all of the signs to be a top team nationally and dominant performances, still lacked any kind of heavyweight win after falling short in Vegas. Nobody could have predicted they would win in such a momentous fashion at Phog Allen Fieldhouse. The final stretch required missed free throws, a steal, extremely difficult threes, and more:

Houston woke up on Sunday with the high quality road win it was searching for and its best win of the season by a mile. The Cougars will continue to fill out its resume as we go along in the Big XII. The scariest part is that they already have the credentials to be on the 2-seed line.

MIDDLE SEEDS

Arizona’s win over Iowa State gave it a shot in the arm. That shot included a boost above a few teams in the Tuesday AM re-boot of building the seed list. Cats are a 5-seed.

Maryland may have had the best week of anyone. Blowing out shorthanded Illinois in Champaign, and handing Indiana a brutal blow in the closing moments in Bloomington. Road concerns have evaporated for now in College Park.

Missouri picked up another quality win over Ole Miss. The Tigers have come together as a team quite nicely, and are winning games through ball movement and elite spacing. The results have them creeping up the board right now, and with the road win at Florida already possessed - this could be a team who rapidly rises with continued consistent high-level play

BUBBLE

The SEC continues to do things to my forecast that are unprecedented. This time around it is Georgia who goes under the microscope. The conference has 13 at large worthy teams in a 16-team league. Even Arkansas and LSU can still wake up and make a run. So its complicated to forecast this out. I took a peak at KenPom projections, who still has most of the bubble hopefuls (besides LSU/Ark) going 7-11, 8-10, or 9-9. In each individual scenario, the team in question (primarily looking at Oklahoma, Texas, Vandy, and Georgia right now) still had a “selectable” resume. Maintaining a .500 record in meaningful games (which deducts Q4 results).

Human nature suggests that one, two, or more teams will hit a wall to make this easy. Or perhaps a scandal or a new coaching search rumor? Anything?! So far it hasn’t become clear. With Georgia specifically, they’ve become the 13th team in the pecking order. I like what I’ve seen from them in fairness. The Bulldogs are missing a decent road win. Its only road win is a Q3 win at rival Georgia Tech, who is having a rough go (currently 148th in NET). UGA lost all five of its hardest games in Quad 1A and added an Arkansas loss last week. There is enough reason to pick them apart in a committee setting where other conference commissioners may be less enthused about a 13-bid SEC. Combine that with the fact that losses are coming to the big picture Bubble in the SEC, it felt okay to exclude the Bulldogs today.

That’s because Wake Forest and Arizona State do have quality road wins! Especially ASU, who won at West Virginia earlier this month, and own wins over Saint Mary’s and New Mexico away from home. Give me a squad like the Sun Devils who has the proof away from home! In Wake’s case, they do own the Quad 1A win over Michigan at this moment and match UGA’s “no bad losses”. The 5-4 Away/Neutral record for the Demon Deacons is also a tad more impressive that Georgia’s 3-5 record here, although the competition levels are different.

CONFERENCE RACES

Big change occured on Monday with South Alabama stunningly losing at UL Monroe.

This allows the Red Wolves of Arkansas State to re-emerge into the Forecast. Arkansas State had a very strong non-conference effort, highlighted by the win at Memphis. This version of ASU belongs as one of the coveted 12-seeds, and that pushed Samford to a 13-seed, and pushes Utah Valley to a 14-seed.

The Jacksonville Dolphins (ASUN) and Cleveland State Vikings (HLMBB) are amazingly running through their leagues right now. JU has won seven straight to suddenly emerge as the lead fish in a league where Lipscomb and North Alabama are getting most of the attention. Similar vibes at Cleveland State, who was mostly looked at as an after-thought in preseason. CSU has been a model of consistent winning for almost two full months, during this 12-game win streak.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1: MVC (Bradley). The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Georgia, North Carolina, SMU, Indiana

NEXT TEAMS OUT: North Texas, BYU, Ohio State, Xavier

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

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