WEEKEND RECAP
We are at a crossroads. Six supreme teams are 1-seed worthy. With Auburn and Duke being the obvious picks. Then there are Florida, Alabama, Houston, and Tennessee with incredible resumes for various reasons. They all handled business this weekend and the two tailing teams achieved high-quality wins. Vols won at Texas A&M, and Houston held off Iowa State. It still was not quite enough to warrant a change at the top quite yet. After all, Florida has just three losses total and the best road win money can buy (at Auburn). And Alabama packs such a mean punch with its eight wins in Quad 1A (elite) and nine wins against the field. Houston will take the court in Lubbock tonight. An opportunity for the Cougars to further cloud up the picture. Save the date: March 5th. Florida at Alabama.
Quite the opposite happened with the next six teams from last Friday!
Enter Michigan State. The Spartans did not see their name displayed at the February bracket preview. But they were mentioned as one of the next teams out by Bubba Cunningham, UNC AD, and committee chairman. Perhaps the exercise also served as a major wake-up call for the Spartans. They are 3-0 since with three critical victories. At Michigan on Friday, at Illinois, and at home against Purdue. They won each of these games by nine or more points, which clearly shows that they are in charge of the Big Ten race and becoming more appealing in seeding.
Saint Mary’s continues to climb. A night the program won’t forget as they handled Gonzaga in the Kennel, earning the season sweep, and clinching the WCC Title with two games to spare. Incredible stuff. Gaels are very close to that 5-seed line that they have landed on in recent years.
Oregon rallied late to win at Wisconsin and suddenly the sun is shining in Eugene despite it being the Winter. We all remember this team winning the first-ever Players Era event in Las Vegas. The Big Ten has been brutal at times, but this win helped considerably. The Ducks had four Q1 road wins, but all against non-NCAA projected teams. Now they have a fifth and a clear top-of-the-resume road win.
Bubble madness just continues. VCU sent George Mason into the at-large pool by taking over the A-10 race. That leaves us with no projected bid steals (unrealistic). And that means room for Indiana and Xavier, which I am not convinced on either but of course, both are coming off wins. I normally would not have Arkansas (who is two games under .500 in Q1-3 contests) included, but I am taking a shortcut! Arkansas hosts Texas on Wednesday, and I will have the winner in the field on Friday. So I felt it was logical to pencil in Arkansas as a placeholder for Friday. A true winner-in, loser-out game in Fayetteville coming this week.
Robert Morris has been scorching hot. The Colonials finally have reached the Horizon League mountain top! One win away from clinching a share of the trophy. RMU has won 12 of 13 and are one of the best stories in the nation.
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: George Mason, Boise State, Texas, San Francisco
NEXT TEAMS OUT: UC Irvine, SMU, North Carolina, TCU
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