Bracket Summary
Welcome to the first of hopefully several Bracketology exercises for the 2020-21 season! This bracket build was like no other, as you may have suspected. All we know thus far is 68 teams are heading to the NCAA Tournament in the State of Indiana. We presume the sites are mostly going to be in Indianapolis, so that is represented in the bracket today. As the NCAA Selection Committee rolls out more information, we will adjust the bracketing forecasts accordingly.
How was the Preseason Bracket Built?
Several factors go into selecting the 68 teams. This season the Ivy League decided not to participate. So we are now looking at 31 Conferences with each tournament champion receiving an automitic bid to the tournament, instead of 32. That means 37 at-large bids are available for the most deserving teams as selected by the NCAA Selection Committee.
Removing the geography from the bracket projections during this exercise, felt bizarre - like something was completely off. I’ve been at this for a long time and so was especially different. What I found was, we don’t know which games get actually played and which ones get cancelled, and that is likely going to be the case all year. Like Texas and Stanford are both going to play in Asheville’s Maui Invitational, but no guarantee they play there. We will also see ad-hoc non-conference games in the next month, and perhaps all season long. It could create a new set of variables and opportunities for bubble teams that had their non-conference games lost.
Several hours of zoom interviews, reading, podcasts, texting, calls, and more have gone into the past offseason. Based on every piece of info gathered, this bracket represents my best for what the season could bring us.
I put a special emphasis on coaching pedigree and teams who play good defense. You can probably tell by Virginia being a projected 1-seed. But there are several other factors going into the projections including: percieved talent, how the pieces of a roster fit, efficiency analytics, historical research on like-teams, and others. What we do here is consistently think about all factors that can and will impact a season and/or a tournament resume.
The projected bubble means several tough decisions for who’s in and who’s out. Northern Iowa was a late removal from the projected field, due to a COVID-19 issue that hurt their roster this week. There are a handful of teams like Marquette and Syracuse that are real difficult to make determinations on. Should be a wild ride as always, but even more so in this unparalelled campaign.
In Part 2 of our preview, we projected Bradley to win Arch Madness again this season. Which means we are starting the Bracketology season with one bid theif.
Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Bradley)
FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Northern Iowa, Arkansas, Marquette, South Carolina
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Purdue, SMU, UNC-Greensboro, Syracuse
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