WEEKEND RECAP
Top five teams in the land have been quite elite. The issue for today is that I can only project four of them to be top-seeds. The debate rages on between Michigan or Nebraska. The Wolverines are no longer #1 in either the NET or POM, but they are still clearly the second-most powerful squad per the predictive measures. Nebraska is hammering the committee with more quality wins. The win at Illinois is platinum-level good after the Illini stole the show and won at Purdue this past weekend. But, I found the exercise to be quite unconvincing, so I kept Michigan as the last top seed today. BTW- look who plays on Tuesday Night: Huskers at Wolverines!
The teams in the seed list from six to 14 are a cut above the next group. A complete re-evaluation was required work to determine how high Illinois, Michigan State, and Texas Tech should climb. On the flipside where does Houston, Purdue, Iowa State, BYU slot in? That was a fun re-grouping. By the time I made it to the 15th-best team (Kansas), there was a clear drop-off in resume quality.
From 16 to 33, seeding can arguably get messy. UCF for example, stellar resume, shaky power numbers. Saint Louis has a stellar set of power numbers, but no data that helps them from a resume perspective sans the lone loss on the season. The big results were Tennessee’s road win at Bama, North Carolina’s road win at Virginia, and Auburn’s loud victory at Florida.
The 34 to 46 group are all within a bad result or two of being out. USC helped itself out tremendously by winning at Wisconsin on Sunday to escape Crown Tournament danger. N.C. State’s win earlier last week at Clemson really got the Pack on the right side of the bracket. Utah State stopped the bleeding by winning on the road at Colorado State. Texas pounded Georgia, and despite the Horns have a losing record in its biggest opportunities, I am taking my 2025 selection learnings and reconfiguring to include Texas today. Virginia Tech missed out on a big chance by losing at Louisville, and the Hokies are right on the cliff now.
Bubble gainers also included Missouri, California, TCU, and Butler. Those four are making strides toward getting in, but aren’t quite there yet in terms of total body of work. George Mason, Seton Hall, Baylor, and LSU took losses that it will need some work to make up for.
Conference races got juicy over the weekend! Texas A&M took over the SEC lead by themselves at 6-1. Bucky Ball in Texas has been unstoppable in January. Houston’s loss to Texas Tech, hands the Big 12 race solely to Arizona for now. Cats are at BYU in a Monday showdown coming up. Belmont is now tied with Murray State for the lead in the Valley after the Racers fell to UNI on the road. The two have not met this season, Bruins have a stronger SOR and will replace Murray State in today’s projection. South Florida is back as the American rep. Bulls have wins over Tulsa and FAU, who project as USF Bulls’ primary threats in the AAC five-way tie for first place at two losses each. UT Arlington capitalized on another Utah Valley loss to become the WAC rep today.
FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE
Today is the season debut of another outstanding season of Fielding The 68. Every Monday and Friday at 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT. Live analysis and discussions about all teams in the mix for March Madness.
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: Missouri, California, George Mason, Stanford
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Santa Clara, TCU, Seton Hall, Butler
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