WEEKEND RECAP
Arizona fell at home to Texas Tech, and it was fairly simple to move both Michigan, which has only one loss, and Duke, which lost to Texas Tech in NYC, above them. Duke outclasses Arizona in wins against the field (10-9), Quad 1A heavy-hitting wins (6-4), and Quad 1 wins overall (10-9). The Red Raiders split with Houston, beat Duke, and won at Arizona. It’s a trio of wins hard to ignore. They don’t have a perfect resume by any means, but it’s enough to place them as a 3-seed.
Purdue took an important step forward by blowing out Iowa on the road. Interestingly, the Boilers have home losses to both Illinois and Iowa State. However, the Boilermaker body of work is clearly more fulfilling than the other two. Road wins at Alabama, Wisconsin, Iowa, and USC are an impressive collection. They also beat Texas Tech in the Bahamas, a win blossoming for extra credit today.
Virginia and Alabama are in a virtual tie for the final spot in the Top 16. The Cavs notched a neutral court win over Ohio State, another solid non-conference result against a big conference opponent. The Cavs only have three total losses, which helped break a somewhat of a tie here. Bama has wins over Illinois and St. John’s, no matter what Bediako stipulation you prefer to insert. I happen to believe that Bediako’s fiasco will be a non-factor. Alabama AD Greg Byrne is once again on the selection committee, and I fully expect him to calm any concerns. He’s a sharp veteran in that room.
BYU’s news yesterday of Richie Saunders tearing his ACL likely limits the heights for the Cougars on the floor. He is their most important floor spacer, a veteran leader, and a guy who can get buckets. It stings, and the Cougars almost lost a home game to Colorado after he went down early in the game. I will continue to evaluate the Cougars as the next weeks go by.
Wisconsin had a monster week. Be sure to read more about them over at Basket Under Review, as they have earned National Team of the Week honors. The wins at Illinois and over Michigan State have the Badgers in a safe space as a 7-seed today.
Bubble shakeups include a welcome to the field for TCU, breaking through slightly above Missouri. Tigers were blown out at home by Texas. Horns are up to a 9-seed. The Frogs won at Oklahoma State. Missouri has a losing record away from home and two home losses to Georgia and Texas. It has painted a concerning picture. Texas A&M continues to slip as well, taking some of the luster away from the Tigers’ win there.
Conference races were headlined by the Ivy League showdown between Yale and Harvard, which became an instant classic. Yale ultimately prevailed in OT and left Cambridge with the Ivy League lead. Hawai’i, California Baptist, Portland State, East Tennessee State, Wright State, Bethune-Cookman, and LIU all lost this weekend but maintained their edge in the conference races. Appalachian State was not as fortunate. The Mountaineers loss, combined with a miracle South Alabama comeback, puts the Jaguars in the projected field.
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: Missouri, New Mexico, Virginia Tech, Ohio State
NEXT TEAMS OUT: California, VCU, Seton Hall, West Virginia
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