MID-WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
The Florida Gators broke through onto the 2-seed line for the first time in 2026. A fourth loss at home for Purdue sent the Boilermakers down the board. Purdue is now a projected 3-seed.
Today, there are five strong options for the four 3-seed slots. I’ll hold Gonzaga there above Kansas due to much stronger power numbers. GU has a road game at Saint Mary’s tomorrow, and a victory would give the Bulldogs the outright WCC Title along with a high Q1 win. Kansas heads to Arizona tomorrow with an even greater opportunity. We will take a deeper look on Sunday after the weekend dust begins to settle.
Alabama gains the final spot in the Top 16. The Crimson Tide is in an ultra-tight comparison with fellow SEC foes: Tennessee, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt. The Vols fell at Mizzou, which created an opening. Arkansas has a strong argument if the committee focuses on the H2H results among the four. The Hogs dominated Vandy and the Vols, while going to double OT at Bama. Easily the most impressive team in head-to-head action between the four options. The Hogs’ body of work does not have a road win stronger than LSU currently, and that remains their biggest issue for moving up.
Louisville missed another opportunity to impress. The Heels put the clamps down on the Cards early in the second half. The win for UNC made them the natural choice for the final 5-seed, while Louisville remains stuck as a 6-seed.
UCF made a ton of noise by completely dismantling BYU in its biggest road win of the year. The win likely makes the Knights an at-large team for just the second time in school history. Today, the Knights have climbed up to a 7-seed.
It was a rough week for the existing bubble hopefuls. USC, Santa Clara, Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Texas each had major opportunities to be firmly in the field, but they could not get it done. The Missouri Tigers were one of the few bright spots, earning a significant home win over Tennessee. Cal’s win over SMU was important as well. The Golden Bears are back in the field today. The naughty list includes Indiana, Auburn, and New Mexico, which lost games to non-NCAA-level opponents. Particularly worse for the Hoosiers, who fell at home to Northwestern.
San Diego State’s win over Utah State gives them the current inside track to the top-seed at the MWC Tournament. They are represented today as the Automatic Qualifier. Liberty has dropped two straight CUSA games and fell to a 13-seed. Tennessee State earned a key win at SEMO last night to enter the bracket as the projected OVC Tournament top-seed.
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BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1, San Diego State (Mountain West): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: USC, Virginia Tech, VCU, Indiana
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Auburn, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Seton Hall
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