MOVEMENT NOTES
Arizona leads the nation with 14 Quad 1 wins, and eight of its 10 wins over NCAAT-caliber opponents occurred away from Tucson. If not for the ridiculously dominant seasons that Duke or Michigan are having, these Wildcats would be a slam dunk for the top overall team in the forecast. Keep that in mind in case Duke falls to UNC or Michigan were to slip up against the Spartans later this week.
Speaking of the Spartans! A tremendous road sweep of the Indiana schools last week beautified the MSU resume, and they are making their debut as a 2-seed in today’s bracket. Spartans received a lot of help from the Big 12’s carnage of late to make all of this a reality.
Texas Tech was the big story to end last week, well, last night’s home loss to TCU undid a good chunk of the progress gained by winning at Iowa State. The Horned Frogs suddenly seem like a team that will almost certainly dance now, despite a wild resume.
Alabama fell at Georgia and Nebraska fell at UCLA last night; no team really took the opportunity to capitalize. Kansas fell at Arizona State, and Gonzaga has nine days off. Arkansas plays Texas tonight, but that may not give them enough juice to crack the Top 16 since the game is at Bud Walton Arena. It seemed like Virginia would benefit from some of this chaos, but the reality is that the Cavs don’t have the elite resume wins that their primary competitors do (i.e., Texas Tech, KU, Bama). On the other end, Georgia is all the way up to a 7-seed with the win, and UCLA is out of Dayton danger.
St. John’s has three tournament-level wins this year, and two are against Villanova. The non-conference loss to Auburn is holding them down a bit these days, and the Red Storm have to live with the home loss to Providence for the duration. So, SJU remains stuck as a 6-seed.
Saint Mary’s will join the 6-seed party. The Gaels’ big week to finish off WCC play is paying major dividends. Gaels gained help from BYU losing again yesterday and Kentucky falling at Texas A&M. That gives SMC the edge over both for the time being.
UCF took its second straight disappointing home loss last night vs. Oklahoma State. That keeps the Cowboys alive in the at-large picture. OSU finishes with a massive opportunity vs. Houston at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Utah State was swept by UNLV. UCLA hammered Nebraska as noted above. The Bruins have bypassed UCF and USU on the board today, but all three of them are 9-seeds.
N.C. State continues to spiral in the wrong direction. The saving grace for the Pack is the great work in scheduling, and earlier performances cannot be undone. Road wins at Clemson and SMU, combined with home wins over North Carolina and VCU, still keeps NC State reasonably safe for now.
SMU, on the other hand, continues to lose ground. For the first time, the Mustangs are forecasted to play in Dayton as part of the First Four. Hosting Miami tonight and traveling to Florida State won’t be easy this weekend. The Ponies could really use a win in at least one of these games.
Auburn knocked off LSU last night. The Tigers’ entire tournament profile comes down to the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa this weekend. A win on the road will be a substantial boost and ensure that the Tigers do not go over 15 losses for the season. The 15-loss mark has never been breached by an at-large selection. Should Auburn fall, they are likely done with the At-Large experiment because that will mean a minimum of 16 losses once you include the SECT loss. This is it, Tigers, can you beat the rival this weekend?
Oklahoma State earned a season sweep of UCF. Things can get very interesting if the Cowboys beat Houston on Senior Day this weekend. Keep your eye on that one.
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BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: USC, Virginia Tech, California, Indiana
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Auburn, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, San Diego State
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