Welcome back to Weekend Hoops Watch! One of our favorite columns is back for this busy weekend of important College Hoops action. Although we would regularly not kick-start this column until January, the eagerness to prepare for these games directly in front of us was simply too strong to not write about them.
By January, the games previewed for the column are most clearly divided into three categories.
Heavyweight games: Games that will impact the top 16 teams on the seed list. Better known as protected seeds.
Bubble games: Games that will most influence teams inside or outside of the bubble.
Conference Leader games: The opportunity for the lead in any given league to change hands.
Our top five favorite games in each grouping were selected for the coming weekend. For December only, I’ll focus on five under-the-radar games to highlight instead of conference games due to many teams still being in the thick of non-conference play.
Jeremy Sochan and the Baylor Bears host a blockbuster vs. Villanova this weekend.
HEAVYWEIGHT GAMES
5. Wisconsin at Ohio State Saturday NOON EST B1G Network
Badgers are a heavyweight? It sounds shocking based on preseason expectations right? The answer is yes for today, the Badgers are playing like heavyweights. They’ve played their way into this conversation. Johnny Davis has completely elevated his game after getting to spend the summer on the Team USA U19 FIBA team. Davis continues to hit big shot after big shot and demonstrates next-level athletic ability. The Badgers are coming off an emotionally charged 25-point comeback win at home vs. Indiana. Now the league demands them to travel to Columbus to take on an Ohio State team who defeated Duke at home. For the Buckeyes, EJ Liddell has once again asserted himself as an AA candidate himself and they are getting great production from Sophomore, Zed Key. If Wisconsin brings the right energy, this should be an excellent matchup. Ohio State takes really efficient shots, ranked 11th today in eFG%. Wisconsin is protecting the basketball at an elite clip, 8th in the country in TO% (13.0).
4. UCLA at Marquette Saturday 8:30 PM EST FS2
The major news for the Bruins is that Cody Riley made it back to practice this week. It appears that Riley will give it a go in this one. UCLA did not have much trouble with UNLV or Colorado since their tough night vs. Gonzaga, so this game should tell us a bit more on where they are at. For Marquette, Shaka’s first year is going about as well as hoped to date. The Golden Eagles are coming off a difficult away win at Kansas State and already beat Illinois and West Virginia this season. The Fiserv Forum will be rocking for this one. Marquette has been really good at getting to the foul line, will that continue? And can Marquette limit the second chances for UCLA on the offensive glass? Those will be key to an upset.
Update: UCLA at Marquette will start later today due to travel issues for the Bruins on Friday.
3. Arizona at Illinois Saturday 5 PM EST FOX
Well well well, FOX has themselves quite a double-header on Saturday. Nobody is hotter and scoring at a frenetic pace than Arizona. Tommy Lloyd’s team hasn’t scored less than 80 points in any game. The Cats are already #1 in NET rankings, the computer loves the blowout wins. The test for Arizona now comes in their second true road game of the year, that also includes two time zones of travel (always a big deal in College Basketball). Illinois has started to get back on track, primarily thanks to the red-hot Alphonso Plummer. Plummer knows some of these Arizona players well, as he is a transfer from Utah. Illinois will do their best to take their time on offense to limit possessions in this one. A massive key is Illinois ball protection, they currently have a high rate of turnovers and could be exposed if they let Arizona get running.
2. Houston at Alabama Saturday 10 PM EST ESPN2
Back on November 23rd, Houston lost a frustrating game in Las Vegas to Wisconsin by two. Since that day, the Cougars have been on a demolition path. Destructing the next four opponents by 29, 41, 66, and 32 point margins. That list included the Oregon win. Clearly, Coach Sampson has his team focused on all possessions regardless of score. UH will need that level of focus in order to pull off what would be a major road win in Tuscaloosa. The Tide are riding high after their big win in Seattle over Gonzaga. So many weapons on this Alabama team. However, this Houston matchup will likely not have a high pace and could play much more similarly to Bama’s game vs. Iona which ended in a low-scoring defeat.
1. Villanova at Baylor Sunday 3PM EST ABC
How did we get so lucky to have this many great matchups in a two-day span? This one is ELITE. Both Villanova and Baylor have national championship caliber rosters and coaches. Even further proof is in the pudding for Nova, despite the two gut-wrenching losses to Purdue and UCLA. The Cats have proven that on a possession-by-possession basis, they are an Elite team that can effectively score and defend. Baylor has shown really no flaws in their undefeated quest to date. They won the most difficult MTE at Atlantis which included a convincing win over Michigan State in the Final. Jeremy Sochan, LJ Cryer, and Kendall Brown have been even better than advertised. James Akinjo was a natural fit after his stellar season at Arizona last season. This matchup should give us great team basketball on all possessions and a thrilling game. The travel for Villanova might be a factor, but remember this: Villanova won at Texas on December 6th last season and played great. Cats will be ready.
Colorado State is ready to take on their first of two SEC opponents. Vital games for the Rams resume.
GAMES THAT MAY HELP SHAPE THE BUBBLE
5. Texas A&M vs. TCU in Houston, TX Saturday 6:30 PM SEC Network
In a matchup of in-state mystery teams, both have tournament aspirations that are alive. This game serves as a nice resume win for the winner and some bragging rights. You cannot talk about the Aggies and Frogs without addressing what happened in the transfer portal this past summer. Emmanuel Miller and Cashius McNeilly both transferred from Texas A&M to TCU. McNeilly would later go back into the portal. But Miller has become a primary piece of Jamie Dixon’s lineup. And now Miller will face his former team in the Rockets’ Toyota Center. He will be highly motivated. The Frogs are coming off their best performance of the season over Utah, 76-62. As for the Aggies, they did pick up a win over Notre Dame on the final day of Maui in Vegas. Overall, they are 7-1 with the lone loss being to Wisconsin. Frogs also just have the one loss, so we have a lot to figure out on both sides. Should be an intense battle with two fiery head coaches (Buzz & Dixon).
4. Minnesota at Michigan Saturday 6:30 PM EST FS1
Added this game because the Gophers are trying to make a season out of this. Well, a win in Ann Arbor would garner serious attention. Gophers were able to open some eyes last weekend with an impressive win at Mississippi State (teaser, more on them soon). A home loss vs. Michigan State earlier in the week is their first setback of the Ben Johnson regime. How do they respond? Meanwhile, Michigan is on the path to “getting right” after manhandling San Diego State and Nebraska in consecutive games. So, the question is what can Minnesota do to slow down the Wolverines? Two things pop out on paper, the Gophers have been excellent in keeping teams off the foul line defensively. Also, Minnesota is fourth in the country at protecting the ball. If both of those trends continue - this will be a great battle.
3. BYU vs. Creighton in Sioux Falls, SD NOON EST FS1
The first thing that jumps out here is the early tip-off time of 11 AM Central. Creighton has limited travel and plays in the same time zone, so it’s a mini-edge to the Jays from that standpoint. Creighton has had mixed results with this super young and super talented roster early in the 21-22 campaign. All told, they are sitting at 7-2 with losses to Iowa State and Colorado State - not exactly bad at all. An opportunity here vs. a banged-up BYU club and what should be a packed Pentagon could springboard the season for the Jays. As for the Cougars, they are coming off an emotionally charged in-state win over Utah State:
Mark Pope needed to regroup his team after that to prepare for this unique game in the Pentagon. Gideon George is back in the rotation at BYU and that helps a lot, but missing Baxter will sting for a bit until the Cougars are fully adjusted. Creighton’s defense has really done well keeping opponents off the free-throw line, but can they keep BYU off the offensive glass?
2. Crosstown Shootout: Cincinnati at Xavier 8:30 PM FS1
One of the best rivalries in the sport, hands down. This game would have made one of my lists in any given season - just an incredible intensity and passion goes into this game annually. We do get the added bonus of Cincinnati being an early-looking bubble team and Xavier (who is finally healthy) playing like an NCAA team. The key will be can Cincinnati neutralize the weaponry of Xavier, and can they do it in the hostile Cintas Center? Furthermore, can the Bearcats improve on their shot selection? They’ve currently struggled in this area, ranking just 235th in eFG%.
1. Colorado State vs. Mississippi State in Fort Worth, TX Saturday 2 PM EST ESPNU
The unbeaten Rams looked unstoppable in a home win over Saint Mary’s and further legitimized themselves as not only a tournament contender but a team who could actually wear white in the first big dance game. CSU is about to embark on a couple of tests vs. SEC foes. That begins on Saturday on a neutral court vs. Ben Howland’s Mississippi State club. Interestingly, it is Mississippi State who may need the win more in this immediate moment. The Bulldogs dropped a home tilt to Minnesota and were beat in the Bahamas by Louisville. A win vs. CSU gets them right on track. For the Rams, they only get a couple of more opportunities outside of the Mountain West to add a resume win. The Bulldogs will have a real challenge trying to slow down the Rams effective and efficient offense, it really hums. Conversely, the Rams will be tasked with trying to limit second chances when the Bulldogs attack the offensive glass (13th in the nation in OReb’s).
Will the Anteaters build on their wins over Santa Clara and Boise State, when they visit Fresno this weekend?
CRUCIAL UNDER THE RADAR GAMES
5. Cal Baptist at UC Riverside Saturday 7 PM EST ESPN+
The Battle of Riverside seems to get more important by the year. Locally this is a big one ever since CBU entered the D1 ranks four years ago. Last season unfortunately this newish local rivalry was postponed. In 2019-20, CBU defended the home court and beat UCR by 12. Since that time, the Highlanders have improved considerably and are one of the top programs in the Big West under Mike Magpayo. The Lancers have continued to progress under the guidance of Rick Croy. The Lancers are off to an 8-1 start. All eight of those wins were at the friendly confines of CBU Events Center. Now CBU is going cross town to UC Riverside’s SCR Arena where it should be a fun atmosphere. The Highlanders really pride themselves on defense but have been sloths on offense. Perhaps the CBU defense can help a bit, Lancers are one of the worst D1 teams at forcing turnovers. Such a contrasting style of ways these teams succeed.
4. Morehead State at East Tennessee State Saturday 4 PM EST ESPN+
Two of the stronger teams in the OVC and SoCon are set to do battle this Saturday in Johnson City. ETSU got a lot of attention after winning the Naples Invitational Tournament last month. Desmond Oliver has only been on the job for ETSU for a handful of months, yet was still able to keep both of the Brewers (Ty and Ledarrius) in the fold. His team is now sitting at 6-3 and performing like a Top 25 mid-major team. Morehead State started the season on a rough note, taking blowout losses to Auburn and UAB. The defending OVC Tourney champs have responded well lately, however, by winning their last four in a row and the Arkansas State MTE. The Eagles still have star player Johni Broome playing great basketball and appear to be ready for another run in the OVC.
3. Yale vs. Iona in Brooklyn, NY Sunday 8 PM EST FLOHoops
First, let’s hope this game happens. Just before press time, Rick Pitino had this to say, via Twitter:
Assuming the game is still on, Iona will be scrapping a bunch of under-the-weather Gaels together to get a victory. At this point, if you are Iona, you just need to keep winning. The Gaels of course, already have an elite win in hand over Alabama on the resume. As for Yale, this is an exciting opportunity to play at Barclay’s Center and get a big win as they approach Ivy League play. Yale protects the ball at a superb rate and that should keep them in it throughout the game. On the flipside, Iona gets to the charity stripe early and often. There doesn’t appear to be a sign of Yale preventing that in this one.
2. Liberty vs. Stephen F. Austin 7 PM EST FloHoops
This one has been circled since the late spring when the Hall Of Fame announced their Dallas/FW event details. Both the Flames and Lumberjacks have done damage in March over the past decade and created memories for their burgeoning fan bases. So this game is quite fun. The Flames have started to right the ship after a stunning loss to Manhattan last month, by blowing out Missouri in a home feature game. For SFA, they too are shaking off a rare home loss to South Dakota State a month ago. With the jury out on both schools, this is an important game for each side. Look for the Lumberjacks to really crank up the defensive pressure against Liberty in front of their semi-home crowd. SFA also should have their way on the offensive glass. What keeps the Flames in it here, is their top-notch eFG% (54.0).
1. UC Irvine at Fresno State 7 PM EST MOUNTAIN WEST NETWORK
The West Coast has been fortunate in the early going. Several programs appear to be in the mix and improved in general. On top of that, teams from the Mountain West, WCC, and Big West are scheduling each other early and often. Here we have yet another intriguing matchup as Fresno State (who had San Francisco on the ropes momentarily this week) hosting UC Irvine. To add more to the scene, the City of Fresno has experienced rare freezing weather this week. So let us hope this game is played with no interruptions and the Anteaters can travel safely to and from the Save Mart Center.
In this matchup, look for a tremendous interior matchup between Orlando Robinson and Collin Welp. Two elite players in the west and similar heights. Robinson of course, will be more mobile and out on the perimeter at times. But seeing them go for rebounds and in the screen game will be fascinating. The Bulldogs are a Top 100 program defensively in all of the four factors (ORebs allowed, forcing turnovers, defending shots, and keeping opponents off the foul line). That’s really impressive. UC Irvine is elite, however, when it comes to defending jump shots and limiting second-chance points. Eaters are one of the best in the nation in those areas, and in general UC Irvine is the tallest team in the Big West by a mile. It’s a matchup issue for most, if not all. Jemarl Baker of Fresno State will be in his second game back, curious to see his usage rates in this one.
Enjoy the action this weekend everyone!
~Rocco Miller