Inside the Bracket

Quality Wins

One of the favorite topics for bracketologists this time of year is Quality Wins vs. Bad Losses.  My predictions are always based on guessing what the committee would do if the season ended today.  With that being said, I put slightly more weight on a Quality Win than a Bad Loss.  What I consider to be a Quality WIn, are wins against teams that are still in the realistic hunt for an At Large Bid.  Then comparing resumes as I work thru the Seed List to generate a final outcome.  This process must happen before every bracket update, because the bubble and tournament profiles are constantly shifting.  Below I've outlined some teams that stand out to me as teams that need to add more Quality Wins to achieve their goals.

  1. North Carolina - Yes, they beat Maryland (we will get to them shortly) at home.  Yes, they currently sit in 1st place in the ACC.  But besides that, what else have they done that warrants a #1 seed thus far?  Big opportunity this week to take care of Duke and Miami at home.  Win those two and they'll be close to a #1.  Also, the Heels have trips to Virginia and Duke before the ACC Tournament.  
  2. Dayton - The Flyers have had a tremendous season and are a lock to make the tournament.  They own a huge win over Iowa on a Neutral Court.  But also own an ugly loss to #244 La Salle. The biggest problem for Dayton is how bad the Atlantic 10 has been.  They dont have many chances to improve their current position.  Highest I can foresee them getting to is a #3 seed.
  3. Maryland - The home loss against Wisconsin last weekend was a long time coming for the Terps.  They've had several scares this season for Bad Losses and now have a home loss against one of the few teams they beat on the road.  Maryland has a very talented team, but they haven't meshed the way I expected them to earlier in preseason.  They still have big games @Purdue, @Indiana, and vs. Michigan on the schedule before B10 tournament time.  
  4. South Carolina - Gamecocks got a clutch win at Texas A&M ten days ago.  And now the Aggies have tanked, which isn't helping South Carolina's resume.  Even worse, they got blown out of their own gym against Kentucky when they had a big opportunity to add to their resume.  The Gamecocks should be safe, but another Quality Win would go a long way to guarantee it.
  5. Seton Hall - Here we go again with the Pirates back on the bubble.  Losing at home to Butler last week was rough.  Making matters worse, is the recent collapse of Wichita State.  That win is not carrying as much weight as it did two weeks ago.  They go to Georgetown and St. John's this week and can't afford to slip up.  Chances will come for Quality Wins next week against Providence and Xavier.