Teams in Bold are Projected Conference Champions. Conference Champions in their school color are newly projected league champions.
Seed List Notes:
1-4. Really hard to place Gonzaga. We will find out tomorrow. But these 4 teams are the clear #1 seeds in my book. At least I feel good about that.
5-8. Feeling mostly good about the #2 seeds too. Arizona is the most debatable of the bunch. I am looking at this as if the tournament started today. So that assumes Arizona wins the Pac-12, in which case they deserve that #2 seed.
9-10. I think Louisville, Oregon belong right here for now. Can't put them with the next group below in my book. And it's easy to make a case to be with the #2's.
11-19. This is pretty tough right now. Duke's win last night made it tougher. I am high on West Virginia because they've beaten two #1 seeds as of now. UCLA is tough to place right now, I am impressed by their win at Rupp. Butler is also tough to place, up and down team lately with a great overall resume.
20. Creighton is set here because of two reasons. Recent play combined with a strong resume. Can't make a case to be higher due to Watson's injury and can't knock them down to 3rd tier quite yet with their resume.
21-33. Xavier had a real nice road win in Omaha to sharpen their resume and move up a seed line. Maryland's loss at Penn State wasn't pretty at all, they dropped a seed line. SMU is a tough team to seed because they steamroll everyone but don't have an incredible resume. Big game for the Mustangs this weekend hosting Cincinnati. The three State schools of the Big 12 have outstanding road wins (KSU over Baylor, OK State over West Virginia, and ISU over KU) really solidifying their spot in the tournament today. Each need to be sure not to slip up at home and all will be in. And Northwestern has plenty of chances to make up for their loss to Illinois ahead, they are still in great shape.
34-43. TCU is a team I've enjoyed watching this year, they play hard and take care of the basketball. Good to see them get rolling lately. VCU has got to be the luckiest team in the country - to pull out their last two wins was a miracle or a conspiracy depending on your views. Nevertheless, they are winning the A-10 and building their profile. Syracuse remained hot by pulling out a huge last second road win at Clemson. Miami's profile is actually starting to compare favorably compared to most of the bubble as they picked up a key win over Virginia Tech. I moved Wichita State one spot above Middle Tennessee because the Shockers are obliterating tougher opposition lately and MTSU has a similar profile just without the sexy metrics.
44-47. Marquette has really dropped lately, just picking up too many losses. They have several chances ahead to climb back up. Illinois State has had too good of a year thus far to not get in. They seem like an ideal First Four team right now, another loss in the MVC and that likely changes. Michigan gets back into the field after demolishing rival Michigan State. They need to root for their rivals the rest of the way so that win continues to carry weight. And finally my last team in is Indiana. Holding on by a thread, but they still have a stronger resume than the teams on the outside looking in.
48-68. Simply using KenPom rankings. UNC-Wilmington is on the verge of At-Large discussion should they lose in the CAA tournament. Beginning next Friday I will breakdown this group more thoroughly.
Teams out. Rhode Island is close but they really need a signature win and might need two. Huge opportunity for the Rams tonight against Dayton. I can't put them in over a team like Indiana yet. Tennessee is getting very close as well, another key victory on the road would be huge for their resume and they still have South Carolina and Kentucky on the road. I like Texas Tech's profile despite the bleak RPI (87). They need to rack up a road win or two. Red Raiders get Kansas and Baylor at home next, great opportunities. Vanderbilt and Alabama are teams playing very well and could make a big final push. Watch out for them.
Enjoy the games this weekend!