WELCOME TO MID-SEASON
We’ve arrived!
The 2025 midway point is essentially here for the upper echelon of College Hoops. Power programs are sitting near or at 16 of their 31 games, so I’d argue that 50% or more of the season-long data is ready for review.
We are experiencing a sport-shifting season in many ways. The Big 12 has had the upper hand on all other leagues for the majority of the past decade. A major reason was the combination of having blue blood (Kansas) to allow other competing programs to build stronger programs themselves and the league remaining smaller in size than the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC. Well, I’m sorry to share that those days of having an edge are over with the Big 12 becoming the Big 16 this year, and losing the annual quality of Texas and Oklahoma.
The SEC (16) and Big Ten (18) are also massive in quantity and quality. Half of their league members will naturally be around or above .500 in the conference by the season’s end. This creates a vacuum of bids for these super leagues and arguably guarantees a large cluster of bids for these two leagues. That’s the case thus far in 2025 with the SEC having a superior non-conference.
Based on non-conference, an argument could be made for the SEC to have 14 of 16 members dancing. However, this notion of 14 teams getting in from the same league is pure fantasyland. Simple math tells us, that teams will accumulate losses within the league schedule. It is an unbalanced schedule in leagues as big as the SEC or bigger, much like non-conference resumes are unbalanced. However, I can not nor should not project a 6-12 SEC team or worse for inclusion into the field. A prospective NCAA hopeful would need to be at least six games over .500 in non-conference to offset that win percentage, and even so the committee would likely have better candidates. A 7-11 league team can be realistically selected (2019 Oklahoma, 2022 Iowa State, and 2023 West Virginia), but NCSOS strength will be critical, as the Big 12 learned several times over in recent history. It should also be noted that the Big 12 expanded last year and nobody below 9-9 in conference had the goods to get in.
Oklahoma (2024) was in a strong position to get in last year until four to five bid steals occurred during Championship Week, and in the end, the Sooners couldn’t complain because of an 8-10 showing in league play and a 12-12 record in meaningful games, despite no bad losses.
For Illustration Purposes: 2024 Oklahoma had a combined 12-12 record in meaningful games. Just 4-12 however in its toughest 16 contests, and the committee ultimately left them behind.
And here are the 2024 Big 12 Standings, last season’s top league in America:
Nobody made it in that finished under .500 which is a cautionary tale for this year’s super conferences. Particularly teams that didn’t have strong non-conference schedules. Early warning signs are flashing bright red this season for Vanderbilt (330 NCSOS) and Maryland (314 NCSOS).
All this being said, the SEC has had a historic start to the year as a collective whole.
The most bids ever to a conference were the 11 bids rewarded to the Big East in 2011. I do believe the SEC would max out at 11 despite some potential of 12-13 belonging in the field. And as we saw in the Big 12 last year, some teams will naturally not play well or come apart (as happens in almost every year). So let’s see how the dust settles in eight weeks. I will go ahead and run with 11 bids today (Mizzou going to Dayton). I believe it would be a big achievement for the league to get 11 in, despite the ambitious expectations right now.
BUBBLES FOR DAYS
January calls for a month of hope, more than a time of regret. For the power conference teams, there are tons of more opportunities at the highest level to reverse the course of its season or to improve to a better seed.
For those in traditional one-bid leagues, congratulations on making it this far! It’s truly an achievement, now you have to just keep doing it for two more months with no stumbling.
Today’s bubble had no shortage of contestants. Eight of the 26 realistic hopefuls found a home in the bracket. Those that missed the cut had some common themes that need work:
Have not beaten a team in the projected field: SMU, Texas, Vanderbilt, Indiana
Have not won a road game in the top two quadrants: Maryland, Dayton, SMU, Wake Forest
Under .500 in meaningful games (non-Q4): Ohio State, Arkansas, Texas, Cincinnati, Villanova
For UC San Diego, it has been an incredible story. The Tritons’ home loss to Seattle U. is still sitting in Quad 4 and it hurt to lose that one by 13. Otherwise, UCSD is one of the great stories in the sport. First-year eligible for the NCAAs after just concluding its four-year D1 transitional period. A bevy of former D2 and under-recruited stars make up the rotation and a healthy dose of ball protection. It’s a wonderfully run system under Eric Olen that I saw firsthand as they won the Boardwalk Battle in November. The Tritons have a golden road win at Utah State and back that up with a Q2 road win at UCSB. The Big West offers one more swing at UC Irvine on February 8th to give UCSD another likely Q1 opportunity. UCSD just missed the cut today. This could be a terrific WAB (Wins Above Bubble) case study, which unfortunately has the Tritons at 56th this morning.
The combo of Mizzou, Iowa, UCF, and Creighton make up the quartet forecasted to Dayton. They each have issues for different reasons but were better options based on merits than the teams highlighted above.
bRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1: MVC (Bradley). The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: Maryland, UC San Diego, Indiana, Wake Forest
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Vanderbilt, Ohio State, Arkansas, Texas
