MID-WEEK SUMMARY
An eventful week for a variety of reasons. The naked eye would unlikely be able to catch the reasons for bubble shifting as an example. Also, a top-seed shift with Houston inching closer to the top.
-Much to my surprise, there was enough evidence in the several comparisons to feel that Houston has earned the second overall spot on the seed list slightly over UConn. You can argue both teams for a variety of reasons. The Cougars got the nod due to more overall wins (8) against NCAA competition and high-end road wins over BYU, Baylor, and Texas all look stronger than Monday. UConn (6 wins vs. NCAA-level teams) still do not own a road win at a sure-fire NCAA-bound squad. Just enough heavyweight to tip the scales to the Cougars.
-Kansas took the home loss to BYU. Yet, the overall damage the Jayhawks have already acquired is still strong enough to stay a two-seed. Nine current NCAA-projected teams have lost to KU.
- Auburn is slipping further after finding themselves just 1-7 vs. the top quadrant. Performance-wise the Tigers are demolishing the competition, just do not have the resume to fully back it up. Auburn remains a four-seed but has slipped to 16th overall on the big board.
- BYU is the big big winner this week. Acquiring the piece of Gold it so desperately needed. An away win against tourney competition. The Cougars came into the matchup just 1-6 in true road games against quality (top two quad) competition. The updated 2-6 record isn’t great by any means, but getting this win at Phog Allen, and becoming the first team to win there all season certainly changes the game.
-South Carolina continues to pound the resume with more road wins after winning at Ole Miss. It is really impressive and probably worthy of being a 5-seed today. I believe this is an area of seeding where at least some committee members may value performance/power rankings a little extra, so I’ll continue to hedge with the Gamecocks as a six. Big game with Florida visiting tomorrow.
- Nevada’s win at Colorado State was filled with drama. The big picture for the Pack was the impact it made to its tournament chances. The result gave Nevada a sweep of the Rams, and now six Q1 wins for Nevada. They have played themselves well away from the bubble and up the the 7-seed area.
- Big 12 messiness clouded the eight/nine lines with the quartet of TCU/Texas Tech/Oklahoma/Texas. With Houston as 1-seed, this created a bracketing exception. Oklahoma ultimately was eligible to join Houston in the same pod. Because the two are only scheduled to play one time this season.
- Gonzaga passed the first of two road tests last night with flying colors in the NBA’s Chase Center. A showstopper of a win still leaves room for Gonzaga to improve. A big one with Saint Mary’s is part two tomorrow. But the Bulldogs woke up feeling great today.
- The bubble brought consequences to both Providence and Wake Forest for now. The Friars were not expected to beat Marquette by any means. However, that loss makes them a dreaded 8-10 in meaningful games and would leave them in a bad spot. A 2-1 finish for PC is reasonable and can get them right back onto the right side. For Wake, the loss at Notre Dame was another road thorn. The Deacs now have a 3-10 record away from Winston-Salem and a grotesque 1-8 away record in nine opportunities against top-two quadrant opposition.
James Madison and Princeton continue to win and be available for selection. They are today’s beneficiaries of Wake and Providence’s shortcomings. The Utah Utes are right there as well, but similar pain in its road record and resume rating leaves more work to be done.
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: Providence, Utah, Wake Forest, Memphis
NEXT TEAMS OUT: St. John's, Colorado, Ole Miss, Kansas State
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