TOP SEEDS
The week saw some notable results with both UConn and Arizona falling, but each bounced back into form over the weekend. The Kentucky Wildcats were the biggest story with an unstoppable 117-95 win over Alabama. The win knocked Alabama into a first-place SEC tie with Tennessee. For Kentucky, it served as a statement win coming off a road loss to LSU.
Kentucky’s exact placement is somewhat of a guess considering they were a forecasted 7-seed on the morning of the CBS Bracket Preview. Since then, two massive needle-movers occurred. The win at Auburn in convincing fashion and the high-octane demolition of Alabama. One thing appears clear, the four high-end wins (at Auburn, at Florida, vs. UNC in Atlanta, and vs. Bama) are more than than the zero for Illinois. The Illini were the simple choice to move to 17th overall and the top five seed.
Two-seeds all went undefeated. A North Carolina road win at Virginia helps close the gap between them and Arizona for the final 1-seed (West), but I believe Arizona still has just enough strength at the top of its resume to hold off the Heels. It’s narrow now.
The three seeds lost besides Iowa State. The Cyclones eventually put away West Virginia after a little bit of a scare. Bama’s loss at Kentucky, Baylor’s loss in OT to Houston, and Duke’s loss at Wake Forest were not bad losses at all, but ISU still has just enough to be perhaps the top choice among the group now.
Baylor recovered quickly with a Monday night win at TCU. The Bears now own four wins in high Q1A territory and that was their first on the road. The Bears are pushing hard for a 2-seed should someone slip above them.
Auburn and San Diego State remain in similar spots after holding serve, remaining as four-seeds. Creighton, however, fell at St. John’s to take its eighth loss of the year. The Jays have the strength in resume largely thanks to the emphatic win over UConn and an additional marquee home win over Alabama. On the road, Seton Hall is a quality road win, but the Jays didn’t get one of the elite wins (only Villanova is left on the road) and lost to UNLV and Colorado State (neutral) in games away from Omaha earlier. Creighton also owns home losses to NIT forecasted teams in Villanova and Butler, which is why their protected-seed status is not secure yet.
MIDDLE SEEDS
South Carolina’s win at Ole Miss provided further weight on an already impressive road resume. The Gamecocks find themselves at 9-3 in all games away from Columbia, with four of those being true road wins against the top two quads, headlined by the win at Tennessee. With an outstanding resume, it was impossible to keep them off the six-seed area after comparing them to squads like Washington State, Florida, and Texas Tech.
Speaking of WSU - the Cougars followed its major win at Arizona with a disappointing double-digit loss at Arizona State. Such is life in College Basketball. The Cougars now have a fourth loss in the Quad 2B or worse part of NET sorting. Otherwise, there is a lot to like still. A sweep of Arizona is still really attractive in this part of the seeding process and WSU settles in as a six-seed. Much excitement was offered my direction with the possibility of the Cougars being sent to Spokane. Unless something drastically changes, they will need to be a five-seed or higher for that dream to become reality due to the likely destinations for the first three seed lines going to other sites, leaving Spokane with all 4-13, 5-12 matchups as you’ll see in today’s forecast.
Mississippi State has played its way up to a seven-seed with superb play and some help from teams like Colorado State, FAU, and BYU all falling over the weekend. Outside of the road holes and Q4 loss to Southern, the Bulldogs have an excellent 8-6 record and now own Top 30 marks in the analytical tools when looking at resume and performance combined. I provided some deeper MSU Bulldog thoughts here with Justin Frommer, MSU reporter:
BUBBLE
Seton Hall is the big bubble winner at this stage of the season following wins over Xavier, St. John’s, and Butler to not only propel themselves above the cutline but also help put those three further away from being selected in the process. Now the Pirates get two home run swings at Creighton and at UConn this week. Should the Pirates falter twice, they will have 12 losses and need to clean up the final two home games vs. Villanova and lowly DePaul.
Gonzaga has its biggest week of WCC play ahead in the Bay Area. A jacked-up San Francisco Dons team is set to host the Bulldogs in the NBA’s Chase Center this Thursday Night. My understanding is this still qualifies as a true road game for Gonzaga. Two nights later, it is the annual finale at Saint Mary’s - which serves as an upside game for the bubble-ish Bulldogs. Gonzaga needs at least a split this week to remain in good standing and a sweep would allow them to ascend a bit up the seed list.
Michigan State took its fourth home loss on Sunday to Ohio State. It served as the Spartans’ fourth home loss this year and second in two weeks against non-NCAAT (Iowa) teams. The Spartans are also just 4-7 away from the Breslin Center. Plenty of ammunition for the committee to place them under the microscope. Talked a ton about this on Monday’s Fielding The 68 Show:
New Mexico’s home loss to Air Force was a stunner and a tough individual result to swallow. One of the great myths of Bracketology (largely due to the way TV attempts to describe it) is that singular results automatically knock a team out or put a team into the field. A complete re-evaluation is always required after new results come in and it’s based solely on the body of work of each at-large candidate. For the Lobos - two critical road games at Boise State and Utah State will mean more to its fate than this loss to Air Force. UNM needs to win one of them, no doubt, and of course, win the home finale over Fresno State.
Ole Miss is still on my immediate radar for two important reasons. One, they have Alabama this week at home, which is a shot at a much-needed Q1A victory. The other is that the Rebels have just one loss to a team outside of the projected field. This is a fact that is best-in-class across Bubble options.
Butler wins out against St. John’s, DePaul, and Xavier - I believe they are right back in. With 12 losses there is no room for error in these three I don’t believe since the two challenging games are in Hinkle.
Keep an eye on - Kansas State, Memphis, Pittsburgh, and Colorado - who are all looking at inside straights to make a late move to get in. Also, Utah and Oregon in the PAC have avenues too, but we are running out of time/chances. The Ducks could hit a home run with a win at Arizona. Easier said than done (unless you are WSU).
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: Ole Miss, James Madison, Princeton, Butler
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Utah, Memphis, Colorado, Pittsburgh
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