Early Round Exits:
- UMass - The Minutemen have unbelievablly only won one game away from home all season, that was at Dayton over two months ago. They did knock off some good teams in Amherst, but I don't see them suddenly figuring it out and beating a La Salle team who they lost to by 15 a few weeks ago.
- Fordham - In the Rams last six games they did not come within single digits in any of them. Needless to say they finished in last for many reasons. Add in the fact that they have to play against GW in the Nation's Capital and you have a recipe for a quick trip.
Day 2 Exits:
- Dayton - The Flyers are a fantastic team in Dayton. If you've followed this blog all year, you'll know that we covered the Davidson-Dayton game back in January. Dayton also has one of my favorite players I've seen in person this year in Josh Cunningham, he is bulldozer down low. So what is the problem? The Flyers haven't won outside of Dayton since January 9th. VCU has a much shorter trip to Washington DC and I think the Dayton season ends here.
- La Salle - The Explorers make a great case for the 12/5 upset over GMU. In fact they just beat the Patriots two weeks ago. However, since then - GMU won a couple of nice road games against VCU and St. Joe's. Also, GMU is playing nearby in DC, giving them the extra boost. Should be a real close game.
- Saint Louis - SLU finished the year with a tough road trip to Duquesne and the Bonnies. Ended up losing a chance at earning a bye and landed as the number six seed. That leaves the Billikens a little tired and now in Washington DC to face the local GW Colonials. I think its a formula that results in an early exit for Travis Ford's crew.
- Duquesne - Keith Dambrot's Dukes have been really fun to follow this season. They started 5-2 in league including a couple of OT thrilling wins along the way. But the Dukes hit a serious wall and from that point on, they only won twice to finish at 7-11 in the A10. Now they face a Richmond team that finished pretty strong. Don't be surprised if Dambrot has the Dukes ready for a run, but I'll still pick them to lose here.
Gone in the Quarters:
- VCU - These Rams will come in pretty inspired after eliminating Dayton. But I don't think they can hang with what I believe will be a refocused Rhode Island team.
- George Mason - The Patriots swept the season series against Saint Joe's. The Pats are playing close to home as well, but I really like the trajectory of Saint Joe's. The Hawks have won six of seven including the blowout of URI and I think they bring too much momentum for GMU to handle.
- George Washington - Davidson and GW met twice earlier in the year and the Wildcats won by 27 and 29 points in those two games. That alone gives me no reason to try to pick an upset here. Nice little run for GW to play three times in front of the home folks.
- Richmond - Spiders come in on mini win streak, but prior to that they had lost five straight. I don't think they have the horses to take down the red hot Bonnies.
Semifinal Send Offs:
- Rhode Island - I am going with an upset pick here. I think after the beatdown Saint Joseph's gave Rhode Island last week, they will have the mental edge in this one. Just more of a gut feel after the way the Rams played last week. Rams end up being an 8/9 seed in the NCAA's.
- St. Bonaventure - Davidson was a really tough matchup for the Bonnies in both games this season. After the 3OT thriller last week, I think the Wildcats are ready to exact some revenge on the Bonnies. I think St. Bonaventure is still looking at an At Large bid however.
Championship Game:
Davidson over Saint Joseph's - I expect Davidson to ride the momentum of the Semifinal win over the Bonnies to cut down the nets in DC. I think they will wind up a 12th seeded team should this happen, ruining the dreams of another bubble team. Excellent run for Saint Joseph's, but I can't see them beating the Wildcats here. In the only previous matchup, Davidson won in blowout fashion, 91-62. Should be a fun Semifinal and Title Game in this league!
