It’s time to prepare you for the Weekend! A very busy weekend of important College Hoops action is right in front of us. With 175 games happening between now and Sunday, refer to this guide as to which games mean the most in this week’s Bracket Watch.
Each week, the games previewed for this column are most clearly divided into three critical categories.
Heavyweight games: Games that will impact the top 16 teams on the seed list. Better known as protected seeds.
Bubble games: Games that will most influence teams inside or outside of the bubble.
Conference Leader games: The opportunity for the lead in any given league to change hands.
Our top five favorite games in each grouping were selected for the coming weekend.
Oscar Tschiebwe has been a rebounding maching in Lexington. They host the mighty Tennessee Vols on Saturday.
HEAVYWEIGHT GAMES
5. West Virginia at Kansas, SATURDAY, 2 PM EST, CBS
They say, “your season doesn’t really start until you win on the road.” For the West Virginia Mountaineers, that means it began when they were able to knock off UAB in Birmingham back on December 18th. Since then, WVU has had some cushy home wins over Youngstown State, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State (who did make them sweat a bit). The only road game? A 15-point unenthusiastic loss at Texas. Will Saturday be similar in Kansas? Could certainly be the case, but WVU does have the opportunity here to play on the national stage and pick up what would be considered an elite road win. For that alone, it’s worth tuning in. Also helping is the return of Taz Sherman, a real difference-maker for the Mountaineers. For Kansas, things have become very interesting lately. They fell at Texas Tech last weekend and barely rallied to beat Iowa State earlier this week. Can the Jayhawks right the ship? ICYMI - here are highlights and the final sequence between KU and Iowa State from Tuesday night:
4. Seton Hall at Marquette, SATURDAY, NOON EST, FS1
The Seton Hall Pirates simply couldn’t get out of a funk in a Thursday night loss at DePaul. Despite a wild rally late, the Pirates took a disappointing road loss. Now an early tip-off in Milwaukee against a hot Marquette team is here. No time to digest, just play hoops. The Pirates survived a classic one week ago in overtime vs. UConn. Kevin Willard’s group will need to tap into that level of effort in order to achieve a road win here. For Marquette, they’ve won three straight Big East games and all by double-digits. Things are really clicking currently and Tyler Kolek has been their motor on both sides of the ball. This shapes up to be an excellent matchup statistically as well. Marquette has been really efficient lately in taking good shots. Can they continue to do it against the #31-ranked eFG% defense that Seton Hall brings?
3. Texas at Iowa State, SATURDAY, 2 PM EST, ESPN+
Hilton Magic. We’ve all seen it, we’ve missed it, and the question is - is it back? Iowa State has been one of the most intriguing stories of the young College Basketball season. We now find ourselves entering the meat of conference play and ISU is faced with a rugged Big 12 path to maintain its relevance in the national spotlight. Texas provides an opportunity not only to continue this Cyclone quest toward relevance but also to re-establish that Hilton Magic. The signs are all there with wins at home over Iowa and Texas Tech already in hand. For the Horns, a work in progress is unfolding. Part of the year one Coach Chris Beard experience is teaching his team toughness in challenging road environments. Texas has fallen short in other chances at Gonzaga, at Seton Hall, and even last week at Oklahoma State. This game represents a big chance to take a step forward as a program. Also, Tre Mitchell only played two minutes in the win this week over Oklahoma, keep an eye on his health.
Creighton F Ryan Hawkins’ game has converted beautifully from D2 to D1
2. Creighton at Xavier, SATURDAY, NOON EST, FOX
A national spotlight game for two of the Big East programs not located on the East Coast. Xavier’s home court has been a major weapon for the Muskateers all season long. Some of that was just watered down however by Villanova this week in a narrow loss. Creighton has an improving team that has already turned a lot of heads this season. The Jays feature a mix of young talent and old veterans (see Ryan Hawkins, a fifth-year, former D2 national champion who is getting an extra year to play and getting to do it on the big stage). Jays have had 10-days to ponder their shortcomings in a 34-point loss at Villanova and “get right” before heading to Cincinnati. No excuse for Creighton not to be emotionally invested in this one. A road win in this game would do wonders toward earning an at-large bid.
1. Tennessee at Kentucky, SATURDAY, 1 PM EST, ESPN
I am sure you have been aware of this one due to the ESPN hype machine. For once, we agree on this being a blockbuster matchup. Oscar Tschiebwe has been turning heads in Lexington with his astronomical rebounding numbers and sheer ability to move. Standing at 6’9 and built with little to no body fat, he is a specimen that is somewhat unfair for collegiate competition to try and contend with. His knowledge and film study combined with all of the athleticism, make him one of the great rebounders of this generation. Kentucky enters this game 11-0 at Rupp Arena, though the Wildcats have yet to face a top-tier talented team at home. That changes here, as Tennessee, with their crop of talent (both young and old) and skill, enter Rupp on Saturday. The Vols fell just short at Alabama (73-68) and lost at LSU, mostly down the stretch. What did they learn from those road experiences? I expect this game to establish a really fun flow to it, as neither team gets to the foul line frequently. Should be excellent high-lever viewing.
BUBBLE GAMES
Disclaimer: It’s still January. That means the Bubble has not formed whatsoever. It’s a daily moving target. Based on what we know today, these are the games that would have the biggest impact on the eventual bubble:
5. Oklahoma at TCU, SATURDAY, 4 PM EST, ESPN2
TCU remains one of the great mysteries of the Power 6 schools. One glance at the Horned Frogs record, tells you that they are 11-2. Pretty, pretty good. A deeper look under the hood will tell you that they have just two wins vs. Top 100 competition against Texas A&M and Kansas State. Two teams who aren’t exactly tournament locks. The Frogs were also blown out in November vs. Santa Clara in the SoCal Challenge. Home games against quality Big 12 teams will go a long way in determining how seriously the NCAA Selection committee should view them. For Oklahoma, they are in the midst of a Texas two-step road swing. The first leg wasn’t pretty in Austin the other night, so I’d expect a strong effort in this one from Porter Moser’s team. TCU loves creating second chances by crashing the offensive glass, OU has been pretty good at preventing this so far this year - could be a big factor to watch for.
4. Wake Forest at Virginia, SATURDAY, 4:30 PM EST, ESPN+
The Wake Forest dream of making a run to the NCAA’s maybe slipping on to thinner ice after the double-digit home loss vs. Duke on Wednesday. The Deacons now get their chance to add to their road resume at Virginia. This is a state that was already kind to the Deacs in their statement win at Virginia Tech by 19 in December. The ACC this season has so many Top 100 teams that just need help getting Q1 and Q2 wins. If a team like Wake or Virginia gets hot in these games, there is plenty of basketball to play their way in. Virginia has shown bright spots lately in their wins vs. Clemson, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech. A win vs. Wake won’t necessarily move the needle, but it will be supportive to the overall story UVA would like to tell: A team who can consistently win quality games in a power conference.
Peyton Willis and Jamison Battle have been fantastic finds in the transfer portal for Ben Johnson’s Gophers.
3. Iowa at Minnesota, SUNDAY, 2 PM EST, B1G Network
This is really about Minnesota last night. The Gophers have been a tremendous story. A team who was picked last in the B1G, only to come firing out to a 7-0 start and later to a 10-1 start. Now sitting at 10-3 and staring down a ton of difficult league games, it will be vital to demonstrate that the Gophers can stop the bleeding on their home court against a solid Iowa team. Iowa has the look of a tournament team and played very well on Thursday night in the second half to knock off Indiana. A road win here for Iowa would help continue their case as one of the upper echelon teams in the conference. The Hawkeyes are up to third in the nation in Adj. Offensive Efficiency, can the Gophers slow them down at all?
2. Alabama at Mississippi State, SATURDAY, 6 PM EST, SEC Network
The endless tour of big games for Alabama continues on. Due to Alabama’s ridiculous non-conference schedule which included the massive win over Gonzaga, and losses to tourney hopefuls Iona and Davidson - Alabama finds itself in this strange middle ground where everyone near the bubble should feel confident against them. Up next? The Mississippi State Bulldogs. A game they’ve got a find a way to win at home. MSU is right there near the proverbial bubble and is hopeful to have Tolu Smith available in this game. The Bulldogs do everything well offensively in the Four Factors, particularly offensive rebounding, where they are a top-15 squad. Resume-wise, they need help. The Bulldogs have yet to do a lot away from the Hump, and lost at home to Minnesota which may not age well. A win vs. the Tide will help them anchor off something more significant and give them confidence heading into the belly of SEC play.
1. BYU at San Francisco, SATURDAY, 11 PM EST, CBS Sports Network
The WCC has been a great story in 2021-22. We are finally getting into a stretch where the four top teams are beginning to match up. BYU got a rough taste of Gonzaga’s medicine on Thursday night. Cougars had one of the top adjusted defenses in the country and found themselves allowing 110 points in a rough 26-point beating. I think that alone makes this a potentially dangerous game for San Francisco. BYU doesn’t want to go home 0-for-the road trip. USF has looked dynamite since the Loyola-Chicago loss, beating both San Diego and LMU by wide margins. The Dons have already passed good home tests against Fresno State, Nevada, and Davidson (NBA Arena). This should be a great chess match between Mark Pope and Todd Golden, where this may be the first time that the Dons have actually had the size advantage.
CONFERENCE LEADER GAMES
5. BIG SOUTH: Gardner-Webb at Longwood, SATURDAY, 3 PM EST, ESPN+
Tim Craft’s GWU Bulldogs have been heating up a late. Winners of five consecutive games, and a 3-0 start to Big South play, suddenly has the Bulldogs as the highest-rated Big South team in KenPom. D’Maurian Williams and Lance Terry have helped carry the scoring load and improved quite a bit from last season. They will take the four-and-a-half-hour bus ride northeast to Longwood. A hungry bunch of Lancers awaits. Longwood won their Big South opener in a thrilling OT game at Radford earlier this week. This game serves as the Conference home opener. Longwood comes in 20th nationally in O Reb% rate, which will be an interesting dynamic in this one. The Big South has gone to two divisions this season, but the winner of this figures to be the league representative in our initial bracket - coming next week!
Mixed reports on Chattanooga star David Jean-Baptiste, leaves the Mocs stellar season hanging in the balance.
4. SOCON: Furman at Chattanooga, 3 PM EST, CBS Sports Network
As pictured above, the headline for this game has shifted to the spotlight of one man: David Jean-Baptiste (14.6 PPG, 91% FT, 42% 3PT). The Mocs unexpectedly did not have his services in their stunning loss at Western Carolina. Mixed reports suggested that he was ineligible. IF that is a permanent deal, the outlook for Chattanooga and the entire SoCon changes quite a bit. Chattanooga has had a stellar year and has the most talented team in the SoCon at full strength. Furman (4-1 SoCon), another very talented team, visits Chattanooga (3-1 SoCon) on Saturday in a very cool showcase game for the conference. It is not often they are featured on a CBS property. The current league standings will tell you how the winner has a firm grip on the league race.
3. WCC: Gonzaga at Santa Clara, SATURDAY, 4 PM EST, NBC Sports Bay Area
Not that we believe there will be much of a race in the WCC, Gonzaga owns this league annually and this year appears to be no different - it’s still early enough to dream of some kind of race. Santa Clara is sitting out there still as an unbeaten team in the league and the first quality WCC team to host the Zags. Santa Clara had a very impressive start to the year, prior to star play Josip Vrankic catching a long-term Mono sickness. Lately, the Broncos have started to elevate their play again during blowout wins over San Jose State and Pacific. Gonzaga on the other hand is playing an NBA caliber of offense in scoring 117 vs. Pepperdine and 110 vs. BYU. For Santa Clara to have any chance, they need to make it a half-court game and take great shots. At any point, it can get away from them. Let’s at least hope for a quality game.
2. OVC: Murray State at Belmont, SATURDAY, 5 PM EST ESPN+
The hype for this one started early this week for these two schools who are both on their way to the Missouri Valley next season. If you missed the MM Field of 68 show, I was a guest this week and we discussed here:
The bottom line is this: Belmont will look to get easy looks both inside and outside. The Bruins will be comfortable on their home court. What can Murray State do to keep up and/or disrupt the Belmont flow? When Murray State has the rock, they will look to tenaciously attack offensive rebounds. Does that plan work? or just lead to additional run-outs by Belmont? Should be a fascinating high-level game and we get another version of this in February!
1. ATLANTIC 10: VCU at St. Bonaventure, FRIDAY, 7:30 PM EST ESPN2
A real showdown landed in our collective laps today with suddenly healthy VCU headed to St. Bonaventure. The big recent A10 news has been the recovery and play of Ace Baldwin. VCU has won six in a row since his return, and seven in a row overall. The Rams can establish themselves as the team to beat in the A10 with a road win in Olean tonight. St. Bonaventure is a team picked by virtually everyone to repeat as A10 champions and brought back the entire starting five. The Bonnies were recently hit with Covid though and finally returned to the court in a game earlier this week that was a real struggle at La Salle. Now they get to come home in front of their beloved and crazy fans. This just sets up as an incredible A10 matchup, going to enjoy it. The winner will join Davidson as the team to beat early on in conference play.
Enjoy the action this weekend everyone!
~Rocco Miller