Time to prepare you for another critical weekend! A very busy couple of days of important College Hoops action is right in front of us. With around 175 games happening between now and Sunday, refer to this guide as to which games mean the most in this week’s Bracket Watch.
Each week, the games previewed for this column are most clearly divided into three critical categories.
Heavyweight games: Games that will impact the top 16 teams on the seed list. Better known as protected seeds.
Bubble games: Games that will most influence teams inside or outside of the bubble.
Conference Leader games: The opportunity for the lead in any given league to change hands.
Our top five favorite games in each grouping were selected for the coming weekend.
Can anyone cool off Marquette? The Providence Friars and a Northeast Winter Storm will do their best this weekend.
HEAVYWEIGHT GAMES
5. Tennessee at Texas, Saturday, 8PM EST, ESPN
Rick Barnes returns to Austin! Great storylines for this one. Yet, the first thing that jumped off the page in the Coach Beard press conference on Thursday was that BEVO, the renowned football live mascot, was going to be making a special appearance for this game. I have no context on how rare this is, but it seems like a BIG deal. That factor combined with the Longhorns’ dominance over TCU on the road earlier this week, has me thinking Texas has all of the right momentum heading in. For Tennessee, they have outstanding predictive metrics going for them. Yet, they still lack any real substance away from Knoxville on their resume. The best win is still the North Carolina win back in November at the Mohegan Sun. UNC has since regressed into bubbleland. Both the Vols and Horns put the clamps down defensively, ranking in the Top 13 in Adj. Defensive Efficiency. A real key will be if Texas can avoid committing turnovers against a Tennessee team that is Top 10 nationally in forcing them. A lot of Orange for all in this primetime matchup and a key game for each squad’s resume.
Bevo is celebrating his 7th Birthday inside of a Hoops Arena? That’s the word on the street.
4. Ohio State at Purdue, Sunday, Noon EST, CBS
Purdue looks to be in great form coming off of a 83-73 dominant road win at Iowa on Thursday. Jaden Ivey returned to the lineup off the bench and looked his usual self - scoring 15 points and mostly filling the box score. Also, looking good for Purdue is playing in Mackey Arena, where the Boilermakers are 10-1 on the season with most wins being a typical blowout. The Ohio State Buckeyes enter this one by coming off a road victory of their own at Minnesota on Thursday. The Buckeyes had a nine-day break prior to Minnesota and looked fresh. The Buckeye-Boiler matchup presents a clash in the paint with Zach Edey/Trevion Williams going against EJ Liddell, Kyle Young, and Zed Key. We saw three of these matchups in ‘20-21, where it was these Buckeyes who eliminated Purdue in Overtime from the B1G Tournament. Boilers however swept the regular season series in two nail-biters. If this is anything like last year, expect it to come down to the wire. A Buckeye road win here would provide a resume game-changer. Currently, Ohio State’s best win away from home is Seton Hall (which has recently lost some of its luster).
3. Baylor at Alabama, Saturday, 4PM ET, ESPN
Inconsistency, Maturity, Chemisty all appear to be off for Bama coming off another disheartening loss at Georgia. The big gaping hole however, is three-point execution. They showed it vs. Gonzaga (13 makes - 38% success rate). But overall, the Tide are just under 31% on the season and that ranks 296th out of 358 squads. Baylor holds opponents to 29.4% makes, not good news on a key front. From last year's team. Bama lost Josh Primo/Jordan Bruner/Alex Reese - who combined to hit 99 triples. John Petty, Jr. also gone - made 77 triples by himself. That’s been harder to make up for then originally thought. On the good side, Tide are 9-1 in Coleman Coliseum (Elite wins over Houston, LSU, Tennessee), and this game should be electric. Baylor just got the services of Jeremy Sochan back and will be curious to see how much he can bring after playing 21 minutes in his return. Keep in mind - Baylor is undefeated when Sochan plays. Alabama will really need to rise to the occasion in order to be successful in this one.
2. Marquette at Providence, Sunday, 12:30 PM ET, FS1
You would be hard-pressed to find a matchup between two hotter teams than this. I don’t think any team has taken the nation by storm in recent weeks quite like the Marquette Golden Eagles. Winners of seven in a row, that list includes away wins at Villanova and at Seton Hall. A rare thing to see Marquette have so much success on the East Coast trips. Credit to HC Shaka Smart and the team he’s been able to build and get to gel. Marquette is ninth in the country in assists per game (17.6), that begins to show how effective they are at sharing the rock. Justin Lewis has exploded onto the scene during this streak, he has scored in double-figures in each game, avoids foul trouble and gets an adequate amount of rebounds. He’s been so analytically valuable to this Marquette team that KenPom now has him as the third highest-rated player in the Big East! The Friars also have a lot to brag about as well. This team is 17-2 and finds all kinds of ways to win despite missing AJ Reeves lately. In this matchup the Friars should be able to get to the foul line with regularity, and its a home game so that could really tilt to their advantage. Marquette will need to stick to what they do best to pull off another major road win: Protect the ball, find their teammates, take great shots. Should be a dandy at the Dunk.
1. Kentucky at Kansas, Saturday, 6PM, ET, ESPN
This will be a well-hyped blockbuster coming to you in Primetime at the Phog. The Wildcats have looked sharp lately and hope to get Tyty Washington back in time for this key matchup. The ‘Cats really struggled without him earlier this week in an overtime win at home over Mississippi State. Conventional wisdom certainly favors the Jayhawks, especially if Tyty is missing. Kansas is coming off an exhausting double overtime thrilling win over Texas Tech. Do they have another war in their tank? Kentucky is really searching for an elite win to match their elite metrics, can they pull this one off?
BUBBLE GAMES
5. Virginia at Notre Dame, Saturday, 6PM ET, ACC Network
Two of a big batch of ACC teams hovering near the bubble, will square off in South Bend on Saturday evening. The Caviliers really need to perform well due to a current NET ranking of 96. Without going any further into UVA’s resume, that’s way too low for at-large worthy consideration. So if the Cavs are going to right the ship, they need to pack some punch to help their overall metrics too. Notre Dame comes in feeling slightly better than before, as the Irish are on a three-game win streak. Unfortunately a lot of these lower to mid-tier ACC wins are not moving the needle like they usually do. So the Irish are forced to keep on winning and drop one at home to Virginia would equal a giant step backwards. Pressure galore here. Virginia’s defense only ranks #102! It’s unbelievable to read that, but its true. So Notre Dame has a nice offensive edge on paper.
4. Boise State at Fresno State, Friday, 11PM ET, FS1
The Bulldogs get to host the red-hot Broncos on a late night national TV game. I saw these very Bulldogs knock off Utah State last week in my first visit to the Save Mart Center, and it was a great facility. The hope locally is for a real solid Friday night crowd. Boise State has been suffocating everyone lately, highlighted by the 42-37 rockfight win at San Diego State last weekend. An undertold story is what Freshman Tyson Degenhart has been able to bring to this Broncos club, seems like he takes the MWC Frosh of the Week Award each Monday. Broncos boast the 8th best adjusted defense in the land, and Fresno State loves to play physical. Should see a really intense battle here. Watch out for Orlando Robinson’s health. He hasn’t had to miss a game yet, but only logged 15 minutes in a tight win at New Mexico earlier in the week. Something to monitor closely.
Anthony Holland (Center) does it all for this Fresno State team. Watch for him to make key plays down the stretch.
3. LSU at TCU, Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN2
This section is all about the bubble. Can’t think of a more extreme bubble team today than TCU. And look what just landed in the Horned Frogs lap? The Big12/SEC Challenge against a great opponent! This is not only a great opportunity to land a Q1 win for the Frogs but also a chance to rescue their horrid non-conference strength of schedule (currently #334). TCU already has their work cut out for them in a rugged Big 12. I’ve been impressed by their wins at Iowa State and vs. Oklahoma. However, the blowout home loss vs. Texas was a warning sign earlier this week. In this LSU matchup, the Frogs will go up against the top-ranked adjusted defense. The Tigers could make life real difficult in the backcourt where they typically feast on opposing guards and cause poor decisions when it comes to shot-taking.
2. Michigan at Michigan State, Saturday, 12:30PM ET, CBS
The Michigan Wolverines have had a sideways season to say the least. Big expectations were in place for a team returning Hunter Dickinson, Eli Brooks, and a solid core plus the additions of DeVante Jones and Caleb Houstan. Things haven’t exactly gone according to plan in Ann Arbor. However, a big recent road win at Indiana and the subsequent win over Northwestern has restored a bit of cautious optimism. Let’s have a look at the current Resume:
You can see the Wolverines have struggled against the top two quadrants holistically. And just a .500 record (7-7) against the top three quadrants. Also, the Resume metrics (KPI & SOR) are in agreement that Michigan is below the at-large bar ranked 56th and 69th respectively. The good news? When you play in the mighty Big 10 things can change in a hurry. Michigan is a couple of huge wins away from being in the field. It can all begin in East Lansing this weekend.
1. West Virginia at Arkansas, Saturday, 2PM ET, ESPN 2
Does not get much more bubbly than this in the current moment. These two took completely different routes to get near the bubble. West Virginia has been “safe” for quite a while after a solid non-conference slate. Life in the Big 12 has hit them in the face though during a current four-game skid. Mountaineers were also home on Wednesday when they took a tough loss to Oklahoma and now have to travel to Fayetteville…where they will face a hot Arkansas team. The Razorbacks were unimpressive earlier in the campaign when they stumbled to an 0-3 SEC start. Since then, the Hogs are starting to get the Muss Buss rolling again and are on a five-game win streak highlighted by a marquee win at LSU. The road LSU win is doing wonders for the current resume, and this non-conference showcase game should really improve their other main concern: a 272nd ranked Non-Conference Strength of Schedule. Mountaineers certainly have their work cut out for them at Bud Walton Arena, will need to force turnovers early and get the Hogs out of rhythm early to have a good chance.
CONFERENCE LEADER GAMES
5. Winthrop at Longwood, Saturday, 3PM ET, ESPN+
This one has been circled on Longwood’s calendar for a long time. The vaunted Winthrop Eagles come pay a visit to Farmville. Longwood’s season came to an end last year in the Big South Semifinals at the hands of Winthrop, a team who beat them three teams a year ago. Furthermore, Winthrop has won at Longwood’s Willett Hall six consecutive times and beat the Lancers 15 out of the past 16 times. To say this means a ton to Longwood, would be a gross understatement. One concern for the Lancers is this is their sixth game in 14 days, will fatigue be a factor? Leslie Nkereuwem came off the bench to pour in 24 points in the win over North Carolina A&T earlier this week, so perhaps Longwood has more heroes lined up and ready to surprise. Winthrop is coming off an OT thrilling win over USC Upstate. Winthrop was mostly left for dead, until a game-tying shot at the buzzer by Patrick Good got them to Overtime. That demoralized the opposing Spartans. Longwood comes in unbeaten in league and Winthrop has just the lone loss at High Point last week. This shapes up to be must watch Big South action.
4. Sam Houston at Seattle U., Saturday, 4PM ET, ESPN+
Okay, something has to give between these two:
This is an unlikely battle for the top of the WAC standings and I dare you to find two hotter teams than this. Seattle U. has an incredible story under Interim Head Coach Chris Victor and boasts two of the best players in the WAC in Damion Trammell and Cam Tyson. The Redhawks managed to sweep their Texas road trip (ACU + Tarleton) last week by protecting the ball well and knocking down foul shots at a high rate. They did more of the same earlier this week in a showcase win over Stephen F. Austin in the NHL’s Climate Pledge Arena. In this one, they will not have that luxury, as they are back to the much smaller Showare Center in Kent, WA. Could be good news for shooters however, as that venue has great sight lines. Sam Houston brings a high-major player in Savion Flagg (mentioned in Tweet above) and is on a six-game win streak that includes victories of the league’s best (NMSU + GCU). The entire Bearkats roster is doing a tenacious job at crashing the offensive glass. This matchup promises to be an interesting clash and the winner will land in Monday’s Bracket.
3. Jacksonville State at Liberty, Saturday 7PM ET, ESPN+
Yet another battle of conference unbeatens! Jacksonville State’s first year in the ASUN and under legendary coach Ray Harper is set to step foot on the campus of Liberty, where the ASUN Title has traditionally ran through. Will not be an easy task for the Gamecocks to slow down Darius McGhee and the Flames, but JSU is playing their best basketball of the season. JSU can snipe from deep and gets 40.3% of their production from beyond the arc. We all know that Liberty can stroke as well, they get 39.7% production from behind the three-point line themselves. The Gamecocks have had the more vulnerable defense throughout the season, however Harper teams play a variety of zones that tend to get stronger over time. We’ll see if Jacksonville State can go into Lynchburg and shock the world, will be a fun battle of bombs.
2. North Texas at Louisiana Tech, Saturday, 4PM ET, Stadium
Grant McCasland’s Mean Green are a perfect 4-0 in true road games this season. Pretty remarkable when you consider two of those wins were at really difficult venues in Wichita State and Western Kentucky. The Mean Green go for five on Saturday at LA Tech. These two teams are part of a current trio tied at 7-1 and boldly in charge of Conference USA. Louisiana Tech is one week removed from another home showdown vs. UAB, where the Bulldogs fell short. This UNT challenge will be much different, as the Mean Green take their time on each possession and play stellar defense compared to UAB’s blazing speed and quicker shots. Bulldogs may have revenge on their minds here as well. LA Tech was eliminated in the CUSA Tournament last season and Kenneth Lofton was held to just 10 points. Should be an excellent battle, and both teams will be rooting for UAB to lose when its over.
1. Loyola-Chicago at Drake, Sunday, 2PM ET, ESPN2
If you were around for any of the 2020-21 Missouri Valley season, you’ll know that it doesn’t get much better than this. Loyola-Chicago and Drake had their wars last year, that ultimately tilted to the Ramblers when push came to shove in the Arch Madness Championship Game. However, Drake’s split with LUC during the regular season proved to be huge as Drake was then selected as an at-large team into the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. This season hasn’t been as rose-colored for Drake. They’ve had several games come down to the wire. Winning three of their four OT games and avoiding near-disaster with a one-point win at Evansville. At this point their may not be enough chances left for Drake to get an at-large, but a win on Sunday over recent rival Loyola would put the Bulldogs in a first place tie at 7-2. The Ramblers have had a real strange stretch of league play where they struggled mightily in four recent games vs. Bradley, Valpo, Missouri State, and SIU. Amazingly the Ramblers dug themselves out of a hole in three of these four games. Still, its not the dominant Loyola team we saw in many games last season that elevated all the way into Top 10 KenPom status. Should be an excellent, competitive battle in Des Moines and on ESPN 2 which is great for the league.
Enjoy the action this weekend everyone!
~Rocco Miller