Inside the Bracket

FINAL Big Board 2020 Season

Big Board 03.11.20

Last night brought us new conference champions from the Summit, WCC, CAA, and NEC. All four teams (NDSU, Gonzaga, Hofstra, and Robert Morris) were the top seed. That means very little changes to the Big Board over the past 24 hours. You’ll notice a few ordering adjustments have been made, but no teams changed seed lines overall.

BIG BOARD is reflected on the latest bracket:

Big Board 03.09.20

Monday can throw the best of us curveballs, and I am no exception to the rule. However, here is today’s projected Big Board. Look for a full bracket on Tuesday.

BIG BOARD

Big Board Update 03.07.20

Quick Pre-Saturday update before a very busy weekend ahead.

BIG BOARD

Big Board 03.06.20

BIG BOARD is reflected in today’s bracket prediction:

Quick Analysis - Big Board 03.04.20

The events of Tuesday Night required a quick reconstruction of the Big Board heading into Wednesday. We saw Purdue, Texas, Tennessee, and Rutgers walk away with significant wins. Marquette, Kentucky, Maryland, Penn State, and others had rough performances.

Board Shifts:

Rutgers continues to give me migraines on selection. I am going to slot them in today because they do have an impressive list of home wins. However, the Scarlet Knights are nowhere near safe. Major bubble game coming this weekend at Purdue
Purdue stays out of the projected field. There is no point in projecting both the Boilers and Rutgers into the field together. We know they face each other next and the loser of that game will likely be on the outside looking in. If the loser is Purdue, they are likely eliminated from at-large consideration. No team wtih 16 losses has been selected as an at-large in history.
Michigan State was a major mover again after winning at Penn State. Sparty comes in on the 3-seed line this morning. They are finally playing like the preseason #1 team. And their timing couldn’t be better. A regular season Big Ten Championship is within reach.
Texas enters the field after a major stunner in Norman last night. If you missed it, the clip is below. Matt Coleman banked in an off-balance three pointer to win the game. Both teams came in hot, and the Horns got a much-needed additional win over a team within the bubble and on the road.
Tennessee completely stunned Kentucky in Rupp. Major surprise on both ends - Kentucky was seemingly playing their best hoops of the year and the Volunteers were struggling most of the season. The Vols now get Auburn this weekend, and if they get that win they will start getting a serious look.
The bubble is messier than I remember it being all year. You’ll see on the board, from UCLA (41) down to Memphis (wrong side of bubble), there is a cluster of teams from varying backgrounds to choose from. Pay very close attention to these 15 or so teams from now until late next week, hopefully most of this will play itself out.

Here is where we stand heading into March 4th:

BIG BOARD

Big Board 03.02.20

BIG BOARD is reflected in today’s bracket prediction:

Big Board 02.28.20 and Weekend Bracket Games

BIG BOARD is reflected in today’s bracket prediction:

Top Half of Bracket Impact Games:
5. San Diego State at Nevada
4. Penn State at Iowa
3. Duke at Virginia
2. Michigan State at Maryland
1. Auburn at Kentucky

Bubble Movement Games:
5. Colorado at Stanford, Sun.
4. Saint Louis at Rhode Island, Sun.
3. Wichita State at SMU, Sun.
2. Oklahoma at West Virginia
1. Arizona at UCLA

Conference Leader Games:
5. Eastern Washington at Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
4. Cincinnati at Houston (AAC), Sun.
3. Wright State at Northern Kentucky (Horizon), Fri.
2. Western Kentucky at North Texas (CUSA), Sun.
1. Seton Hall at Marquette (Big East)

Weekday Bracket Games + Big Board 02.25.20

Highlighted Bracket Games
For upcoming games between February 25-27.

Top Half of Bracket Impact Games:
5. Maryland at Minnesota, Weds.
4. Kentucky at Texas A&M, Tues.
3. Iowa at Michigan State, Tues.
2. LSU at Florida, Weds.
1. Wisconsin at Michigan, Thurs.

Bubble Movement Games:
5. Indiana at Purdue, Thur.
4. Memphis at SMU, Tues.
3. Arizona at USC, Thurs.
2. Rutgers at Penn State, Weds. (RU desperately needs a road win)
1. Texas Tech at Oklahoma in OKC, Tues.

Conference Leader Games:
5. North Texas at FIU (CUSA), Thurs.
4. Montana at Northern Arizona (Big Sky), Thurs.
3. South Dakota State at North Dakota State (Summit), Thurs.
2. Akron at Bowling Green (MAC), Tues.
1. Arizona State at UCLA (Pac-12), Thurs.

BIG BOARD:

Big Board 02.24.20

For the Top 31 teams on the Seed List, I thought sharing this illustration will help further explain my projections. The highlighted areas are glaring holes in the resume for select teams. Please note, some of the records are subject to change based on the new NET rankings that was released this morning. The majority of this exercise was done yesterday.

A similar breakdown was done for the next 25 or so teams that make up the bubble. We will save that breakdown for a future post as we approach Selection Sunday.

BIG BOARD: used to build today’s bracket

Big Board 02.22.20 + Highlighted Bracket Games

BIG BOARD

Highlighted Bracket Games
For upcoming games between February 22-23.

Heavyweight Games:
5. Florida State at NC State
4. Butler at Creighton, Sunday
3. Maryland at Ohio State
2. Gonzaga at BYU
1. Kansas at Baylor

Bubble Movement Games:

5. Georgetown at DePaul
4. Penn State at Indiana, Sunday
3. USC at Utah, Sunday
2. Marquette at Providence
1. Wichita State at Cincinnati, Sunday

Conference Leader Games:

5. Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa (MVC)
4. South Dakota at South Dakota State, Sunday (Summit)
3. Louisiana Tech at North Texas (CUSA)
2. Houston at Memphis (AAC)
1. Oregon at Arizona (Pac-12)

Weekday Bracket Games + NEW Big Board

Highlighted Bracket Games
For upcoming games between February 18-20.
Heavyweight Games:
5. Oregon at Arizona State, Thurs.
4. Creighton at Marquette, Tues.
3. Dayton at VCU, Tues.
2. Baylor at Oklahoma, Tues.
1. Butler at Seton Hall, Weds.

Bubble Movement Games:
5. South Carolina at Mississippi State, Weds.
4. Providence at Georgetown, Weds.
3. Arkansas at Florida, Tues.
2. Indiana at Minnesota, Weds.
1. Duke at NC State, Weds.

Conference Leader Games:
5. Robert Morris at St. Francis-PA (NEC), Tues.
4. Northern Iowa at Indiana State (MVC), Thurs.
3. Vermont at Stony Brook (America East), Thurs.
2. Kentucky at LSU (SEC), Tues.
1. Furman at ETSU (SoCon), Weds. - Follow along live at Bracketeer.org!

BIG BOARD: used to build today’s bracket

Big Board 02.11.20 + Weekday Bracket Games

BIG BOARD: used to build today’s bracket

Highlighted Bracket Games
For upcoming games between February 11-13.

Heavyweight Games:
5. Michigan State at Illinois, Tues.
4. Marquette at Villanova, Weds.
3. Penn State at Purdue, Tues.
2. Creighton at Seton Hall, Weds.
1. Kansas at West Virginia, Weds.

Bubble Movement Games:
5. Notre Dame at Virginia, Tues.
4. Arkansas at Tennessee, Tues.
3. Memphis at Cincinnati, Thurs.
2. Mississippi State at Ole Miss, Tues.
1. Arizona State at Stanford, Thurs.

Projected Auto-Bid Games:
5. Bowling Green at Akron (MAC), Tues.
4. Murray State at Austin Peay (OVC), Thurs.
3. Charleston at Hofstra (CAA), Thurs.
2. Rhode Island at Dayton (A-10), Tues.
1. Colorado at Oregon (Pac-12), Thurs.

Big Board 02.08.20 + Games of the Weekend

This BIG BOARD that was used to build today’s bracket

For upcoming games between February 8-9.
Games to Watch for the Heavyweights:
5. Kansas at TCU
4. Virginia at Louisville
3. Duke at North Carolina
2. Seton Hall at Villanova
1. Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s

Games to Watch for Bubble movement:
5. Providence at Xavier
4. USC at Arizona State
3. Minnesota at Penn State
2. Stanford at Colorado
1. Purdue at Indiana

Games to Watch for Conference Leadership:
5. Saint Louis at Dayton (A-10)
4. Furman at Western Carolina (SoCon)
3. UC Irvine at UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
2. Cincinnati at UConn, Sunday (AAC)
1. LSU at Auburn (SEC)

Big Board 02.03.20

BIG BOARD that was used to build today’s bracket

Bracketology Big Board 01.25.20

The Weekend Update is here. Just in time for 143 D-I games on Saturday and another 19 on Sunday.

Check back here on Monday for a full bracket breakdown.

BiG BOARD Prior to Games on January 25th

Bracketology Big Board 01.20.20 + What to Watch This Week

The Bracketology Big Board reflects today’s bracket:

For upcoming games between January 21-23.
Games to Watch at the Top of the Food Chain:
5. Creighton at DePaul (Weds)
4. Florida at LSU (Thurs)
3. Rutgers at Iowa (Weds)
2. Butler at Villanova (Weds)
1. Michigan State at Indiana (Thurs)

Games to Watch for Bubble movement:
5. San Francisco at Saint Mary’s (Thurs)
4. Washington at Utah (Thurs)
3. Minnesota at Ohio State (Thurs)
2. BYU at Pacific (Thurs)
1. Georgetown at Xavier (Weds)

Games to Watch for Conference Leadership:
5. Western Kentucky at Marshall (Weds)
4. Belmont at Murray State (Thurs)
3. Memphis at Tulsa (Weds)
2. North Dakota St. at South Dakota St. (Weds)
1. Liberty at North Florida (Thurs)

Bracketology Big Board 01.18.20

The Bracketology Big Board reflects today’s bracket:

BIG BOARD

Games to Watch at the Top of the Food Chain:
5. Baylor at Oklahoma State
4. BYU at Gonzaga
3. Kansas at Texas
2. Louisville at Duke
1. Butler at DePaul

Games to Watch for Bubble movement:
5. Indiana at Nebraska, IU team plane did not leave until this morning.
4. Utah at Arizona State
3. Minnesota at Rutgers, Sunday
2. Syracuse at Virginia Tech
1. Marquette at Georgetown

Games to Watch for Conference Leadership:
5. New Mexico State at Seattle U.
4. East Tennessee State at Western Carolina
3. Stanford at USC
2. Northern Iowa at Bradley
1. Houston at Wichita State

Bracketology Big Board 01.14.20

Today’s Big Board reflects today’s bracket:

BIG BOARD

Bracketology Big Board January 9th, 2020

1 Seed Contenders
To me it is clear that Kansas and Duke are worthy of the top two spots. But from there, it gets interesting between Baylor, SDSU, Gonzaga, and Butler. With Baylor’s victory in Lubbock over Texas Tech earlier this week, it is enough to convince me that they belong. Only one team won in Lubbock last season (Iowa State), clearly a very hard thing to accomplish. For the fourth #1 seed I am going with Gonzaga reluctantly. The Zags have showed weakness lately and the win over UNC continues to lose value and their lone loss to Michigan (by 18) contunues to look less elite. You could make a really strong argument for San Diego State here, and I am higher than most on the Aztec body of work.

2nd Tier
Smaller group of squads fit this criteria to date. The Auburn Tigers may be undefeated. but their schedule hasn’t afforded them any elite win opportunites at this point. Not to worry Tiger fans, those elite opportunities are coming. The Florida State Seminoles aren’t getting the love in the rankings yet, but they are building an excellent resume with wins at Louisville, at Florida, at Wake, neutral wins over Purdue and Tennessee. Hard to find resumes this early in the season with that many quality wins away from home, especially for a power conference team.

3rd Tier
Unlike the 2nd Tier, this list continues to grow. Seton Hall has really made a jump back up recently and is sitting comfortably in this tier today. Some may question Memphis here, but I am keeping them for the time being, as my preseason expectations were high. One more rough loss for the Tigers and they will tumble, they have a resume built more on sand than concrete.

In Safely
I like these five squads to be safely in. In Safely essentially means they have done enough resume-wise to not be at risk of taking a bad loss and being completely out of the field. Teams like BYU here out of the WCC will have additional chances at bad losses, so pay attention to that closely.

In, But Not By Much
If you enjoy long lists, this group is for you! This view serves as a nice visual of how many teams are that close to being out in the event of a bad night, especially if it happens against a bad team. The last two selections (Utah and ETSU) were very tough. I am impressed just enough with Utah’s body of work to justify selection, and ETSU barely edges out Xavier with their impressive five road wins including last night’s win over UNC-Greensboro.

BIG BOARD