Bracketology

Bracketology 02.21.25

MID-WEEK NOTES

Alabama fell again, this time to Mizzou on the road. The Tide remains a 1-Seed, but for the first time, they are heading West.
Houston is inching closer to both Tennessee and Alabama. The perfect 8-0 true road record is sparkling and shiny. As is the Cougars’ performance dominance. They have a case now, based on those two unique factors. The Tennessee/Bama duo out-number the number of quality wins by a decent enough margin to hold on.
Arizona’s bounce-back win at Baylor gets them comfortable as a 3-seed for now
Mizzou stays a 5-seed, but just barely. At #17 overall on the seed list as of this moment. The Tigers got the big home win, but still own a 3-5 record away from Columbia. A couple of road wins should put them up to a protected seed soon. They still play Arkansas, Vandy, and Oklahoma on the road to work on their road win percentage.
BYU seems safe at the moment, they still do not have a ton on the road to be proud of, however. The Cougars’ 5-6 road/neutral record includes wins over Wyoming and NC State on “neutral courts.” Another road win around the West Virginia level (which was key!) would help solidify BYU for good. They have the Arizona schools on the road next and have a home run opportunity at Iowa State at the end of the season.
VCU/George Mason will finally meet tomorrow in Richmond. VCU will be the heavy favorite to win that one based on how ridiculous the Rams have been all year at home. That would enter GMU into the at-large discussion for our bi-weekly bracket forecast exercise here. Both teams have collected road wins that are not exactly easy to win, and also not above the bubble level road wins either. They mean something. However, how much it means when compared to the power conference sludge controlling the bubble is more guesswork than surefire absolutes. Let’s see how this A10 showdown plays out, and take it from there.

Nobody pounds opposition at home quite like VCU. https://t.co/nshdjW1TP9
— Rocco Miller (@RoccoMiller8) February 19, 2025

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

Back in the saddle today, join in for several layers bracket talk.

Begins Live February 21st at 5PM ET. Link will work for re-watching purposes as well. The panel, including me, will focus on mid-week changes and the bubble on today’s episode.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Atlantic-10): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Xavier, TCU, San Francisco, Ohio State

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Indiana, Georgia, UC Irvine, Arkansas

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.17.25

WEEKEND SUMMARY

Welcome to the home stretch of the regular season!

With the initial committee meetings in the books and the first hint of how the committee is viewing the top of the board, it’s time to adjust.

The Top 16 seeds in bracket form 👀#BracketPreview pic.twitter.com/zA3qrDHht3
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) February 15, 2025

Upon review, no major surprises. An encouraging sign. Yet, still room to brush up on how they may see a few teams:

Purdue - The Boilermakers were a clean 2-seed for the committee, as you see above. I had them below Iowa State and as a 3-seed due to having an additional loss, but it was close. Now the Boilers have two additional losses when compared to the Cyclones, and are a clear 3-seed.

Wisconsin - The Committee was high on the Badgers and Greg Gaard’s bunch made them look wise by winning the game as mentioned earlier in Mackey. Now, the Badgers have a strong case to be the final 2-seed.

Arizona - A tad lower than we thought but ultimately the Wildcats were the last of the 3-seeds. Then, they of course took a home loss to Houston, furthering the complexities of a very-high caliber Wildcats team that owns a middling resume.

St. John’s - Included in the Top 16, Bracketeer had the Johnnies #17. So very close, and as the leaders of the Big East, I am kind of glad from the conference leader perspective to see SJU included. They go out and take care of Creighton on Sunday. Now a very secure 4-seed here.

Ole Miss - My biggest surprise of the reveal. Not that the Rebels were not included - it was in the part where NCAA Tournament Chairman, Bubba Cunningham, listed others considered. There was zero mention of the Rebs. A team with road wins over Alabama and Louisville at the top of its resume, I was pretty surprised. Like others above, things became more complicated with the Egg Bowl loss at home.

All and all, nothing major compared to other years. I believe the forecast is tweaked and ready to expand these decisions out for a full field.

CASE OF THE MONDAY's ON THE bUBBLE

The bubble picture is being dictated by the power conference contenders. They take on losses and make it more difficult to select them based on committee precedent since 2019 (when the NET era began).

Ohio State is the ultimate teeter-totter team. Now sitting at 15-11 overall. When you remove its Q4 results, they are a 9-11 ballclub. That is a non-starter for being selected based on previous committee decisions as documented here several times before.

That Ohio State type of resume applies to SEC bubble hopefuls in Texas, Arkansas, and Georgia as well. This created a deeper level of searching for today’s final team. There are assurances and securities with the first 36 at-large teams, but finding that 37th team proved to be more challenging than I’ve seen all season, today.

The options were Indiana, San Francisco, Xavier, Santa Clara, North Carolina, or an SMU team that just tripped at home vs. Wake Forest. It was simple to dismiss the Ponies. IU and UNC have taken a high percentage of losses in many at-bats against high-level teams.

Santa Clara has such an intriguing set of road wins, headlined by Gonzaga and McNeese (the only team to win in either building). But the surplus of subpar losses for the Broncos is a killer and it’s difficult to see the committee getting aligned on them.

That left us with San Francisco or Xavier. The Musketeers have won at Marquette and own home wins over UConn and Wake Forest. A higher-end top of the resume than the Dons. The issue is they are still slightly below .500 with 10 combined losses in Quads 1 & 2A and only nine wins against teams in the top three.

San Francisco has the lone home win over Top 20 Saint Mary’s. An impressive and meaningful result to get into the discussion, but it was still at home, where the Dons are still undefeated. The issue is road wins are not quite there with the LMU and Pepperdine efforts being at the top. The win over Loyola-Chicago in Milwaukee has not carried the weight it once appeared to have.

After chewing on all of the above for likely way too long, Xavier enters the field as the final team in. They also have a manageable last five games left and should they handle business, I believe they will be in - making the forecast a little more realistic.

The Dons finish with two key games out of three, facing Oregon State on the road and Gonzaga in the NBA’s Chase Center. Certainly, a split is required, and perhaps a sweep can get the Dons over the hump for good.

BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2 (A-10, Big West): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Ohio State, Arkansas, Texas, San Francisco

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Indiana, SMU, Georgia, Santa Clara

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.14.25

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

Begins Live February 14th at 5PM ET. Link will work for re-watching purposes as well. We will focus on the Top 16 Bracket Reveal on today’s episode.

BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2 (A-10, Big West): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Wake Forest, Georgia, SMU, San Francisco

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Indiana, Texas, Xavier, Boise State

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.10.25

WEEKEND SUMMARY - UPPER ECHELON

Programming Note: I will be on the FIELDING THE 68 Live Show later today at 5PM ET, be sure to tune in for a deeper breakdown on the majority of at large level teams. You should be able to watch it right from here:

The story at the top, is the Florida Gators. The Gators critical win at Auburn has turned the race for a 1-seed into a five-horse race. Florida tightened the gap significantly with the strong group of four we had on Friday - Auburn/Duke/Alabama/Tennessee.

Duke also fell to Clemson on the road, and they are now coming up short in direct comps against Alabama.

That left Duke, Tennessee, and Florida for the final two 1-Seeds. Ultimately the heavy road win volume for the Vols and the Duke’s dominant performance-rankings kept them both up there at this point. Florida heads to Mississippi State tomorrow in another quality road opportunity, with a chance to impress once again.

Texas A&M left no doubt that they belong as a 2-seed. The Aggies impressed in another high quality road victory at Missouri.

Arizona exacted revenge on Texas Tech to split the season series. Both of these teams are performing at a high level, and are secure in 3-seed territory until further notice.

St. John’s earned the road win at UConn and it absolved remaining work the Red Storm had yet to exhibit. A road win over the field was needed to get firmly into protected seed range. Now its even better than expected as SJU won out on direct comparisons with teams like Kansas, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. That allowed the Red Storm to move all the way to a 3-seed.

WEEKEND SUMMARY - TROUBLING BUBBLE

I was at UC San Diego’s momentous road win at UC Irvine over the weekend, and one can hope that a committee member was there too or perhaps tuned in on ESPNU. The Tritons took a two-point halftime lead and ballooned into an 18-point road win over a Top 10 defense in America. UCSD now has two high level road wins, which is vital for bubble tiebreaker decisioning. UC Irvine remains in the field as the projected Big West AQ. UCSD was the last team in on Friday, and they will remain in the field as an at-large.

Wake Forest did what they needed to do, sweeping the Bay Area road trip. Demon Deacons are pretty clearly in at this point especially considering what the rest of the options on the bubble look like.

One kind of mess comes from power conference carnage. Ohio State and Texas keep yo-yoing back and forth with a .500 meaningful record or a couple games short (which they both are today). Buckeyes have seven games left, and need to win at least four of them. Their next three are at home. I still really like this squad and their pieces, so they could/should be right back into the field with a win over Washington on Wednesday.

As for Texas, I am less optimistic but the SEC provides nonstop opportunities. Same holds true for Arkansas. Hogs narrowly fell to Alabama, but its another sign that they’ve corrected a lot of early season struggles. More opportunities are coming quickly.

Another kind of mess is trying to sort out SMU, San Francisco, VCU, Boise State, and Santa Clara. The headaches begin with the ponies. I cannot believe they landed as the last team in today, but at the end of the day they are 8-2 in road/neutral games included a couple of true road wins in Q2. Which is better than San Francisco’s road damage thus far. The Dons win at Q3 LMU on Saturday helped, but still more work to do on that end of things. Dons have the Saint Mary’s home win, which is better than any team SMU has beat by a mile. SMU got the ultimate nod due to overall body of work, they’ve been perfect in games vs. non-NCAA level without a hiccup. Dons have losses to WSU, Bradley, and Santa Clara. Not bad losses in my view, but three non-NCAA teams as of now.

The surprise is VCU. The more I thought about their case to get in, the more I appreciated it. They are .500 or better at every category. The Q4 loss that hurts against Seton Hall, happened way before the Pirates had issues, and is somewhat explainable. Rams have won half of their challenging road games in the top two quads (Dayton, St. Joe’s, URI). Another road win at Loyola-Chicago is particularly interesting because it is the only Ramblers’ home loss all year. The other interesting point that VCU may want to add to its presentation is nobody has blown them out. I covered their loss at New Mexico that ended in a seven-point loss, and they played them hard. The bad loss to Seton Hall was in OT. Its worst loss, at Saint Louis, was by single digits.

San Francisco was the odd team out, but would have been the next option today. Dons are listed third on the “First Four Out” because Ohio State and Texas are likely right back into the bracket if they win during the mid-week.

BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Ohio State, Texas, San Francisco, Arkansas

NEXT TEAMS OUT: BYU, North Carolina, Santa Clara, Boise State

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.07.25

BUBBLE ISSUES

Today’s delay is largely due to a current crisis within the bubble picture. There are flaws everywhere. As Thursday night ended, I knew there was a high likelihood of taking Ohio State into the field following the Buckeye home win over Maryland, despite still being under .500 in games that mean something (non-Q4). That is because they are the only team that has won on the road at Mackey Arena, the seed list at the top says that it’s the sixth-best road win money can buy. Plus the wins over Kentucky and Texas away from home provide supplemental evidence to the committee’s favorite quote. “Who did you play? Where did you play? How did you do?”

What I did not anticipate was a surplus of bubble illnesses. Teams like Arkansas, USC, Xavier, and others are a win or more away from .500 and do not have a road win quite as heavy as Purdue like the Buckeyes do. The Razorbacks are the closest but Kentucky has endured multiple home losses. Despite the supreme nature that provided John Calipari his dream revenge triumph this past Saturday, it doesn’t pack the same punch that Ohio State’s win at Purdue packed.

Another issue is there are no projected bid thieves. It would be a surprise if none occurred next month.

With SMU, they have such a clear divide in results. Performing amazingly well in all games vs. non-NCAA forecasted squads. Yet, falling every time to the NCAA-level teams. There is no stamp of approval within the win set yet, despite the very impressive 8-2 road/neutral record.

Vanderbilt has its own special ailment with its non-conference strength of schedule at 329 of 364 teams, they don’t have a lot of hope to be selected if this close to the bubble. Its best road win remains LSU, which is solid but its not convincing enough to be “safe.”

San Francisco joins the party after snapping its 11-game losing streak against Saint Mary’s. It was a massive milestone for the Dons, who remain perfect at home. The Dons’ best road win is still Pepperdine, deep in Quad 3, and the best neutral win is over Quad 3 Loyola-Chicago. The Dons have a chance for stronger consideration, should they win at LMU tomorrow.

UCF, Arizona State, and Pittsburgh have clearly taken on too much water to continue floating on the good side of the bubble.

Indiana and North Carolina? Both are at least two good wins away.

Ahh! Santa Clara. We love the Broncos! The KPI has them #47. They are the ONLY team to win at McNeese and Gonzaga. So much to love! The problem is four subpar losses and the other models have punished the Broncos. I independently am fascinated by all of this, but I cannot expect the committee to agree on them being included.

Still searching for two teams at this point!

UC San Diego keeps resurfacing…BYU keeps resurfacing.

The Cougars took a loss at home to Arizona in a big spot earlier this week. Plenty of reasons exist to leave them out now. However, there is nothing deliberately leaving BYU out. So they are they stay in for today.

And for the final spot in the field, we’re going to be bold and take the Tritons. This team is one of two to win at Utah State this season, and of course, making all kinds of history in its first season eligible for the dance. The biggest issue with the choice is that after the Utah State road win, all other wins don’t show up until Quad 3. UCSD likely needs a win at UC Irvine tomorrow in round two of the Big West Showdown regardless. Congrats for today, Big West!

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, SMU, San Francisco

NEXT TEAMS OUT: UCF, Arizona State, USC, Xavier

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8