BRACKET NOTES
Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.
- In the protected seed area, Oklahoma State vaulted all the way up to the ninth team on the seed list. The collection of road wins over Texas Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma and Wichita State are very impressive. The Cowboys also have nine wins against the field, second highest total overall (only behind Iowa’s 10). The only thing holding them back is being swept by TCU. Also in the Big 12, Texas took an unexpected leap up to the final three-seed position. Texas has a sweep over Kansas and the Longhorns grade out well in the quadrant breakdowns when compared to the Jayhawks directly.
- Florida State’s loss at Notre Dame resulted in the Seminoles losing out on the ACC regular season championship and Virginia seized the title later that day at Louisville. The combination of those results and a reevaluation of the body of work, tells me that Virginia belongs as the last protected seed today.
- Loyola-Chicago’s Ramblers are the Arch Madness Champions. The Ramblers handled their business with relative ease in St. Louis over the weekend. They look more and more like a first ballot (top 32) selection to me. They are beloved by two metrics, NET and KenPom. A seven-seed is possible. I have them as a safe eight-seed for today, with the upside to move up with a little help.
- St. Bonaventure has arrived into the In Safely tier and the resume continues to strenghten. The Bonnies have the opportunity to earn another win over VCU and claim the conference double - regular season and tournament. They are sitting prettier than ever as a nine-seed today.
- The last selection took me almost all morning to get to the answer. Today, it belongs to Ole Miss. The Rebels have done the most damage away from home of the cluster of bubble teams (see first eight teams out). The good news for all the teams fighting to get in, there is still hope. If you are Saint Louis, you need a non-confernce game or a ton of help and some luck with no bid steals. St. John’s has some decent road work achieved with the UConn win, but the other metrics are not there and they have the Quad 4 loss to DePaul, which is troublesome. Utah State does not own a road win better than against #183 NET. Xavier has nothing better on the road than a win over #119 NET. There are dead ends with most of these resumes, and a bid thief or two would help tremendously.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
ACC - Virginia
America East - Hartford
CAA - Northeastern
NEC - Bryant
OVC - MOREHEAD STATE (CHAMPIONS)
Patriot - Colgate
Southland - Nicholls
Sun Belt - Georgia State
Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly unlikely, annual average is 2.4 per season)
NCAA ALTERNATE TEAMS: Utah State, St. John's, Xavier, Syracuse
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Saint Louis, Memphis, SMU, NC State
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