WELCOME TO CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY
By Rocco Miller
Saturday promises to deliver some finality to key mysteries. The Big 12 Title Game is today, with the two best teams — West Virginia and Kansas playing for another high-quality win. The two schools can make hosting plans, but KU probably does not want to lose to the Mountaineers for the fourth time in four tries. The winner will remain in the mix for a Top 8 selection.
The Big West is making bubble math noise. Cal Poly is one win away from stealing a bid. Northern Illinois seeks its first NCAA Tournament since 1972, and just its second appearance ever, if the Huskies can win the MAC Title Game against either Toledo or Kent State. Rhode Island has been the story in the A-10 from the league’s 5-seed position. A win tonight would give URI back-to-back NCAA Regional appearances for the first time in program history.
FRIDAY SUMMARY
Southern Miss had an improbable bottom of the 9th inning. A walk-off Grand Slam flipped a 6-2 hole into a 7-6 win over very bubbly Troy. The win puts USM firmly back into the Top 8 consideration. Perhaps the bigger news is that if Troy had just closed out the victory, they would be near impossible to leave out of the field. The Trojans would have had a 2-2 record vs. USM, instead its 1-3 now. Troy continues to battle in the loser’s bracket and needs to beat Southern Miss twice to get to the title game now.
Florida State took a surprising loss to Pittsburgh in its only ACC Tournament game. The loss likely keeps the Seminoles out of the Top 8. Pitt still has a fighting chance to enter the field as an at-large squad. The Panthers RPI is up to 38. The three wins thus far in Charlotte give them 14 total ACC wins. Let’s not forget that NC State has 15 and still not right now, either. It appears from my lens that Pitt still needs to beat UNC today in the Semifinals to have a realistic at-large scenario come to fruition. Also, Pitt’s 242nd-ranked NCSOS isn’t helping at all either.
Mercer was eliminated at the SoCon Tournament at the hands of The Citadel. The Bears had a dream week last week by beating Georgia Tech on the road and sweeping ETSU on the road. Mercer’s RPI remains at 28; they will be sweating bullets this Monday and a featured team in Sunday’s deeper bubble breakdown here at Bracketeer.
Eastern Illinois is the new OVC rep after beating SIU Edwardsville. The Panthers are one win away from the trophy.
Pacific fell twice yesterday, and Saint Mary’s emerged as the frontrunner for the WCC Title. San Francisco has made an impressive run, eliminating heavily-favored Gonzaga and the aforementioned Tigers in two wins yesterday. Now, the Dons need to beat the Gaels twice to get the ultimate prize.
SATURDAY FORECAST
This Forecast is based on the 2026 Selection Committee Policies and Principles and is based on a full simulation of the committee’s processes. This is not an opinion; it’s based on what I believe the 2026 Selection Committee will produce on Selection Monday, May 25th, 2026.
THE CUT-LINE
IN
Kentucky
Virginia Tech
Louisiana
TCU
Mercer
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OUT
Texas State
Troy
N.C. State
Kent State
Pittsburgh
Michigan