By Rocco Miller
HOSTING DAY
Championship Week will come to a screeching halt later this evening as the NCAA plans to share the 16 Host locations a little after 8 PM EST. By that point, nearly all of the pre-NCAA Tournament Baseball will have concluded.
The timing of the host announcement suggests that the voting and final host decisions are likely to be made before any of the Sunday games are finalized. Which is critical for teams like Southern Miss and Oregon, who are in a good position as of now, but still have games today.
That means we are likely down to Nebraska or Mississippi State for the final hosting slot in my mind. Arkansas locked up a spot by beating Auburn, and you will see the Hogs are surging within the hosting pecking order.
NEBRASKA: The Cornhuskers’ sweep of USC, 10-8 record vs. Q1, 43rd-ranked Non-conference SOS, and Top 10 RPI have Nebraska feeling good about its hosting chances. The Huskers also have a 9-8 record vs. Q1 and a 17-13 mark against Q1/Q2. The largest issue is head-to-head against Oregon, and Kansas did not go well. KU has surged up the pecking order with its own run for the Big 12 Title, but Oregon remains in the same neighborhood as Nebraska. A road series sweep at the hands of the Buckeyes puts a wrench into the resume as well. At the end of the day, the Huskers went 2-3 in the series vs. Q1 while adding a win at Auburn (1/3) and over Florida State on a neutral. Nebraska went 8-1 in the other series or mini 2-game sets. Mostly sweeping them all. KPI, a resume-based tool, has the Huskers at #16, FWIW.
MISSISSIPPI STATE: The Bulldogs arrived in Hoover at the beginning of the week needing a minimum of one win to get to a historical benchmark of 17 SEC wins. They did achieve that by beating Missouri on the opening day of the event before falling to top-seeded Georgia. That leaves the Bulldogs in a spot of scrutiny. Some of the wins against last-place Mizzou do not get the same credit as an average SEC win, so was this enough? You have to review the body of work. First off, the KPI is still at #11 for MSU, while its RPI rests at #12 this AM. Keeping that resume in high regard for the two resume-based tools. The Bulldogs were 9-14 vs. Quad 1, but every one of those games except for Ole Miss was against a projected Host team. The gauntlet was real. MSU went 4-0 vs. the rival Rebels, and just 5-14 against the rest, including four losses to Georgia. In Quad 2, the Bulldogs went 4-3, but all three losses were a home sweep vs. Tennessee. Not ideal. Mississippi State went 27-0 (Q3/Q4 games) against everyone else, keeping its floor extremely high. They went a combined 10-0 vs. LSU/Vandy (Home games), South Carolina (Road sweep), and Mizzou (Neutral). Non-Conference schedule grades out with a 125th-ranked NCSOS.
JACKSONVILLE STATE: Mentioning the Gamecocks as a wildcard because of the historic season they are enduring and the fact that AD Greg Seitz is on the selection committee. The resume is clearly third in order, and RPI, KPI, and DSR do not have them in the Top 20. However, it’s a strong year at the top of Conference USA, and Jax State is in position to win the double. They have to at least be discussed for a host if they win today’s title game vs. Liberty.
THE DECISION
I respect what the Bulldogs did all year in the rugged SEC, but at some point, they needed another key series win besides the dominance over Ole Miss. What Mississippi State did to its rival was impressive, don’t get me wrong, but they went 4-14 against the rest of the SEC teams heading to a Regional.
Nebraska was good enough to select from a lower league because they got a win at Auburn, beat Florida State, swept USC, and, in general, that carries a resume that brings a much higher winning percentage. It does not mean I think Nebraska is better than Mississippi State; it simply means that Nebraska is more deserving.
THE CASE FOR KANSAS AS A TOP 8
Kansas pulled off the double last night, winning both the Big 12 regular season and Big 12 Tournament titles. The Jayhawks avenged a home sweep vs. West Virginia by clobbering that same WVU team in the Championship Game. The DSR is the new power tool that the committee will have access to. Similar to the way a KenPom can work in Basketball, I believe this will help KU reach a Top 8 selection, as they now rank 9th in DSR to go with their two trophies. It’s a strongish resume as well, with a lot of wins. Congrats to the Jayhawks, you earned the chance to host a Regional and perhaps a Super Regional. Arkansas could win the SEC Tournament today over Georgia and pass Kansas in the pecking order, but even if so, perhaps they go in together for the final Top 8. If not, KU will likely land at #9 in that event. In my view, Kansas achieved the Big 12 pinnacle this season and beat Nebraska twice in April. KU has earned it.
BUBBLE UPDATES
The Sun Belt could not have scripted a much better scenario than the way its tournament has panned out. Louisiana rallied to beat Texas State twice yesterday and advance to the winner-take-all Sun Belt Title Game. Before yesterday, the Cajuns were 0-4 vs. the Bobcats. So, as Texas State is now stuck on the bubble, they can claim a 4-2 season edge over the Cajuns. Meanwhile, Troy came back after a devastating loss to Southern Miss two nights ago to beat South Alabama and Southern Miss in two games yesterday. Now, the Trojans are battling Southern Miss in another massive opportunity game this morning in Montgomery.
Pittsburgh’s run at the ACC Tournament came to an end, falling to North Carolina. The Panthers finish at 14-20 vs. ACC opponents when you add the ACCT results to the pile. I am stuck here with Pitt finishing 21-24 against teams not in Q4, really was a lopsided season for a bubble team with this many losses (nine) to Quad 3. The hope here is that a 38th-ranked RPI has them firmly considered, as it historically would.
Mercer, N.C. State, TCU, and Kentucky remain idle as they can only hope for no more bid theft. The Big West will be a two-bid league, as UCSB was eliminated from the tournament yesterday and has the credentials to be an at-large team. So that factors into the math. I continue to trend toward both East Carolina (AD Jon Gilbert on Selection Committee) and UTSA (Regular season American Champs) being a part of the field of 64, regardless of the outcome today. I got to see both teams play in Clearwater this week, and was really impressed FWIW.
SUNDAY FORECAST
This Forecast is based on the 2026 Selection Committee Policies and Principles and is based on a full simulation of the committee’s processes. This is not an opinion; it’s based on what I believe the 2026 Selection Committee will produce on Selection Monday, May 25th, 2026.
THE CUT LINE
IN
Louisiana
Kentucky
Virginia Tech
TCU
N.C. State
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OUT
Mercer
Troy
Pittsburgh
Texas State
Kent State
Michigan