Bracketology Notes:
- No changes yet on the top line. I wrestled with the idea of reordering Gonzaga, Kansas, and San Diego State in a few different varieties. My conclusion was that there wasn’t enough clarity yet to justify the shuffle. All three resumes have strong characteristics that are defensible, so I’m going to let this play out. Louisville and Duke were the beneficiaries of some carnage around them on the seed list. Seton Hall, FSU, Villanova, and Oregon all took a loss this past week. Speaking of Villanova, Creighton made the biggest move to #13 on the Big Board after getting a very impressive double digit win at Villanova.
- Auburn picked a nice home win over Kentucky on Saturday night plus the Tigers still have just two losses, both respectable (at Florida and at Alabama). Admittedly, I may be a little too low on Auburn, but I just simply like the resumes above them better for now. Their SEC counterpart, Arkansas, is coming off an important win at Alabama that now has the Razorbacks sitting comfortably in the 7-seed range.
- TJ Haws and his gutsy three-pointer from long distance to beat Saint Mary’s on Saturday night not only created a frenzy in Provo, but it really shows that this team can win the big games. The Cougars resume was creeping toward the cut-line, thanks to Haws they are much safer now. Rhode Island completed the season sweep of VCU on Friday night in convincing fashion. You cannot find many teams hotter than the URI Rams out there currently, now winners of eight in a row.
Bubble Talk:
- Virginia is back in the projected field for the first time since the early part of the season. The ‘Hoos have been playing better basketball of late, evidenced by their win over Florida State. In an ACC with three superior teams and not much else, bubble teams like Virginia need to pick up wins against the big three (Louisville, Duke, FSU) to really begin feeling better about their tournament chances. UVA now has an above .500 record against the top two quadrants, a Quad 1A win, and a 5-3 Away/Neutral record. Just enough to stand out above the rest.
- Memphis is in serious danger of losing a spot soon. The Tigers managed to survive this week against UCF and UConn in close calls. Just when Tiger fans thought they could breathe, the news of D.J. Jeffries came down. Jeffries will miss 4-6 weeks with a knee injury, a major blow to this Memphis roster. Memphis had impressive wins in non-conference at Tennessee and vs. NC State, sadly those are not looking quite as valuable today. Like UVA, Memphis has a winning record still against the top two quads, and a 5-3 A/N record, which puts them projected for the First Four.
- Mississippi State is a team trending in the right direction. It has taken the Bulldogs a lot of work to get out of the early season hole they played themselves into. A home loss to Louisiana Tech, a semi-home loss to New Mexico State, and an 0-3 start to SEC play had things looking bleak in Starkville. Since that time the Bulldogs are 5-1 with lone loss coming at Oklahoma by one. MSU now boasts wins at Florida and against Arkansas, plenty to build on going forward.
- Today’s last team in is Xavier. The Musketeers have been on the wrong side of the bubble lately, but a dominant win against a projected 2-seed, Seton Hall, has completely changed things. Xavier proved they can beat just about anyone when they are clicking, makes them a potentially dangerous tournament team. Being in the Big East, many more big games are ahead to improve their seed and the only perceived bad loss thus far on the resume is at Wake Forest.
- Arizona State, VCU, Georgetown are the first three teams out today. I am singling them out intentionally to discuss. Usually by this time of year their are not enough good resumes to fill 36 at-large slots. Well I think these three have a really good case to be fair, and today we actually have 39 worthy resumes for selection. That is destined to change with thousands of games to be played, but a stronger bubble than usual exists thus far. Keep in mind, Tulsa is stealing one projected bid still. So if no bids were stolen, ASU would have a spot in the field. East Tennessee State is not far off the mark either. Keep all of these teams on your radar closely. Below is a quick glimpse at the bubble picture.
2/3/20 Bubble Watch. Cut line is between Xavier and Arizona State.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
ACC - Louisville
B1G - Maryland
Big Sky - Eastern Washington
C-USA - North Texas
MAC - Bowling Green
MEAC - North Carolina A&T
Pac-12 - Colorado
SoCon - Furman
Summit - South Dakota State
Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Tulsa)
FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Arizona State, VCU, Georgetown, East Tennessee State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: DePaul, Richmond, NC State, Cincinnati
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