Bracketology 03.06.20 - Bubble Trouble

Bracket Notes:

• Tulsa is back today as a projected bid thief. The Golden Hurricane have sole possession of first place in the American after beating Temple and watching Houston lose last night.

• If we want to pretend that no bid thieves happen this year, then Wichita State is the last team in. As discussed all season, the annual average is 2.4 bids taken away per year due to Championship Week surprises. That tells us that the final two teams in today’s projected field would also need help to get in - Richmond and N.C. State.

• Ohio State now has captured the final 4-seed thanks to Auburn’s home loss against Texas A&M. The Buckeyes also helped themselves out with another win against a tournament-bound team last night, Illinois.

• Rutgers plays at Purdue this weekend in the bubble game of all bubble games. The Rutgers road/neutral struggles are well documented, and this is the final chance for an away win against anyone in the Top 190. However, this game is a make or break even more for the Boilermakers. Purdue sits at 14 losses, a loss here will put them on path to 16 losses. However, a win here will almost guarantee them a bid. So much at stake for Purdue.

• The bubble is crowded. You can make the case for Texas, NC State, and Richmond - which I have today. But you can also make a case for Wichita State, Utah State, and Stanford. We covered the Rutgers/Purdue saga above, so I expect only one of those two to make it. Additionally you have Cincinnati, Memphis, and Tennessee all right there looking to make a final push as well. Lastly, if we somehow ended up with four bids stolen, there would be no room for any of these teams listed. The drama is real.

• We have a couple of new conference leaders this morning besides Tulsa. We welcome Eastern Washington and N.C. Central to the field.

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
AAC - Tulsa
Big Sky - Eastern Washington
Big Ten - Wisconsin
MEAC - North Carolina Central

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Tulsa)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Wichita State, Utah State, Stanford, Purdue
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Cincinnati, Memphis, Tennessee, South Carolina
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Bracketology 03.02.20

Bracket Notes:

Another thrilling weekend of basketball is now behind us. Where did the season go? Seriously. In a few short days, we will have part one of Championship Week tipping off. It is always a bittersweet time of year. It doesn’t get better than the excitement of postseason College Basketball come March, but is also hard to say goodbye to hundreds of teams that we’ve been tracking since the offseason. It’s always hard to say goodbye to each team, but this is why we love college hoops!

We witnessed six of the top eleven teams lose over the weekend from Friday’s update. The aftermath from those results allowed Seton Hall to climb into the 2-seed position. The Pirates had another big road win, at Marquette to seize the opportunity.

Speaking of big road wins, Michigan State really took it to Maryland on their home floor on Saturday. The Spartans led virtually from wire-to-wire and put themselves in position to be a top four seed today.

The 5-seeds are completely full of Big Ten teams, thanks in part to Colorado losing twice last week to create some additional room. The Wisconsin Badgers have simply played their way into the fifth seed after winning at Michigan last week and adding a win over Minnesota yesterday. For this to actually work within the bracketing rules and procedures, a potential second round pairing of the lone Big Ten 4-seed Michigan State and Ohio State was done intentionally. The Buckeyes and Spartans only play once on the regular season schedule, so this is still an option for the committee in an extreme scenario. Having a single conference occupy an entire seed line, qualifies as an extreme scenario in my book.

Virginia is finally beginning to emerge from a pack of mid-seeded teams (8-10) after holding on to a quality home win over Duke. The Cavs are well above .500 in the top two and top three quadrants which begins to stand out more and more when compared to some of the more mediocre power conference resumes in their seed range.

Oklahoma has gone from not selected in a bracket exercise here just ten days ago, to feeling really safe. How? The Sooners have positioned themselves as the highest 10-seed after a crucial win in Morgantown over a struggling West Virginia program and a critical win over Texas Tech at the beginning of last week.

Northern Iowa clinched the outright Missouri Valley regular-season Championship on Saturday. Their victory came on the road at Drake and propelled the Panthers up to #37 in NET at printing time. UNI now rests as the final 10-seed. Arch Madness begins this weekend and will contain great drama as always!

The final at-large bids today were not easy to forecast. It came down primarily to selection history and lessons learned from past committees. As it stands today, history is not on Stanford or Rutgers side for a final bid selection. The Cardinal are stuck with a NCSOS of 215. They likely need to be at least a couple of places inside the bubble to warrant selection. For the Scarlet Knights, I cannot envision a selection happening after not getting a single Q1/Q2 away win to date. They have one more shot before the Big Ten Tournament. Rutgers remains out of the projected field for now.

Utah State, Richmond, and Cincinnati claimed the last three selections. Keep in mind, I did not project any bid steals today, so this scenario is pretty unrealistic come Selection Sunday. My overall intuition tells me that the Atlantic 10 and MWC deserve a second team, although there is no rule saying this has to happen. Each league has a top five team (SDSU and Dayton), but no guarantees for an additional team. The Spiders have a more lucrative win over Wisconsin (hot of late) to accompany their win at URI. Cincinnati has four wins within the bubble (all against AAC teams), so I’m cautiously going with the Bearcats for the final selection. Check out the entire Big Board to get a good snapshot of the selection picture. From UCLA (current 11-seed) all the way through Texas (6th team out), my expectation is most of this will play its way out. Bid steals and quality wins away from home will help assist on who the final deserving selections belong to.

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
AAC - Houston
Big Sky - Montana
MAC - Akron
NEC - Robert Morris

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Stanford, Rutgers, Rhode Island, Mississippi State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Memphis, Texas, Purdue, Alabama
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Bracketology 02.28.20 - Welcome Bruins

Pre-Weekend Bracketology from Bracketeer.Org

We have seen quite a bit of mid-week movement. Much more than previous weeks. Duke took a loss to Wake Forest which required a major look under the hood. They are now a 3-seed.

Wisconsin made a healthy jump after securing a quality road victory at Michigan. There are five Big Ten teams eating up the eight 5-6 seeds today.

UCLA remained on fire last night thanks to a phenomenal game-winning three by Jaime Jaquez, to beat Arizona State in the Game of the Year in the Pac-12. UCLA has gone from a rebuilding season and surged all the way into today’s field. Plenty of work left to do for the Bruins, though. They have a risky NCSOS (217) and NET (76).

A notable omission this morning is the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. This was an excruciatingly tough decision because there is not a lot to compare to this resume historically. Rutgers is 1-10 in Away/Neutral games with only a win at Q3 Nebraska. Rutgers has five wins above the bubble, all at home. If nothing else changes, this will be the most controversial team discussed in the committee room.

Northern Iowa remained on the 12-seed line, but their resume is once again inside the bubble. Something important to keep in mind as we all buckle up for Arch Madness next weekend.

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
ACC - Florida State
Big Sky - Northern Colorado
MAC - Bowling Green
Pac-12 - Oregon (This changes almost every update!)
Summit - North Dakota State

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Rutgers, Stanford, Richmond, Mississippi State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Memphis, Purdue, Arkansas, South Carolina
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Bracketology 02.24.20 - What a Weekend!

Bracket Notes:

- What a weekend we had across College Basketball. A weekend that saw 10 of 32 conference leaders lose. A weekend that saw the maximum of three #1 seeds losing, due to two of them facing each other. Maryland also lost, and knocked themselves out of the opportunity to get onto the top line. The new #1 overall spot belongs to the Kansas Jayhawks after the major payback win in Waco over Baylor.

The comparison between the two resumes (KU and Baylor) is close. Baylor has the slightly better record, but Kansas has the 11 wins over the field compared to eight for the Bears and the much stronger out of conference schedule. They are virtually even in most other areas. Kansas by a nose here.

Dayton was pursuing the top line after San Diego State’s stunning home loss to UNLV. It turned out that the Aztecs prevailed as the fourth #1 seed due to having a stronger overall body of work. Surging Creighton is really helping the SDSU cause actually, Iowa and BYU are helping tremendously as well. This really establishes SDSU still as more deserving than Dayton for now, another loss would perhaps tip the scales for the Flyers.

As for the Blue Jays, they have not lost since the Bracket Reveal Show (5-0) with wins at Seton Hall, at Marquette and over Butler. Creighton was in consideration for a four-seed on the show, but has seen several teams above them fall during their win streak. The overall body of work compares favorably by a slim margin over Maryland and Florida State.

- Ohio State and Michigan have had rollercoaster campaigns in 2019-20, but have recently stepped up their play. The Buckeyes beat up Purdue over the weekend and Michigan took care of Indiana with ease. The Wolverines also had the majority of their struggles without Isaiah Livers, losing five of those ten contests. Could be a factor in the committee discussions.

- Arizona State, has made an exceptional jump to first place in the Pac-12 Conference. ASU’s resume is improving after each win, which now has them as the top eighth seeded team. The final 8-seed came down to Saint Mary’s and Indiana. The Gaels have done significantly more than the Hoosiers away from home in an otherwise tight comparison. Interestingly enough, the two will face each other in today’s projected bracket.

- Providence is not only a projected tournament selection today for the first time all season, but they really jumped up on the seed list with their now five total wins over Top 21 teams on the seed list. The sweep over Georgetown doesn’t hurt either. Friars are up to a 10-seed today, but need to be continue winning going forward. They are 16-12 today and need to stay a couple of games over .500 to stay in the field at minimum.

It was an exciting win for the Friars over #19 Marquette on Saturday, February 22nd, 2020. www.friars.com

- UCLA is another team skyrocketing up the Big Board. The Bruins stayed red hot over the weekend by completing the very rare sweep over the mountain schools. The final at-large bid came down to a very close four-way race between Memphis, Stanford, Oklahoma, and UCLA. The Sooners have played themselves into a rough position after being safe most of the year. They currently have just one win over the projected field (West Virginia at home) and that win is losing weight too. OU has just a 5-9 Away/Neutral record and they are also 8-11 against the top two quadrants. Trouble in Norman. UCLA has easily the strongest wins among the quartet, a sweep over Colorado and a win in Tucson are under their belt. However, the Bruins non-conference strength of schedule is a risky 215. Stanford also is a risky 214. That ended up being the ex-factor to select Memphis as the final team in today. The Tigers, coming off an important win over Houston on Saturday, also have a 7-5 record against the top two quadrants and a .500 record (5-5) in games away from FedEx Forum.

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
AAC - Cincinnati
Big XII - Kansas
MEAC - North Carolina A&T
OVC - Belmont
Pac-12 - Arizona State

Noteworthy projected matchups:
(2) Dayton - (15) Wright State: Battle of Dayton to be played in Cleveland.
(8) Texas Tech - (9) Houston: Lone Star State showdown in Spokane.
(3) Villanova - (14) Hofstra: Jay Wright against his former school.
(7) Wisconsin - (10) Florida: Rematch of 2017 Sweet 16 matchup won by Gators on Chris Chiozza buzzer beater
(7) Arizona - (10) Providence: Rematch of OT thriller in 1997 Elite Eight.

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Cincinnati)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Stanford, Oklahoma, UCLA, Richmond
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: UNC-Greensboro, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgetown
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Bracketology 02.22.20

Pre-Saturday Bracketology from Bracketeer.Org

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
ASUN - Liberty
NEC - St. Francis (PA)
Pac-12 - Arizona
SoCon - East Tennessee State

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Mississippi State, Stanford, Providence, Purdue
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Cincinnati, UNC-Greensboro, South Carolina, Memphis
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @roccomiller8