Bracketology 02.18.20 - Lessons Learned

A Look Back at 2019:
Around this time of year I find it very useful to take a look back at lessons learned from previous selection committees. The NET era began in the 2018-19 season, thus we only have one true season to do an apples to apples comparison with. Among the snubs of the 2019 NCAA field were two teams I’d like to highlight, TCU and Texas. A rather fascinating duo at surface level, considering they were both members of the Big XII, the top-rated conference last season. So, why did the committee leave these teams out? Why were so many bracketologists wrong about TCU (including Rocco)? Let’s dive in…

2019 Texas
First, here is the 2019 Texas Resume via Warren Nolan, please note that Texas won the NIT and the NIT results are included below post Selection Sunday:

The Horns were projected by many for most of the season to be a tournament team. Texas had big wins under their belt over North Carolina (N), Purdue (H), Kansas State (A), and Kansas (H). The one piece of criteria in which folks overlooked, is a simple yet important detail. The amount of total losses the Longhorns racked up over the year and in the ultra competitive Big 12 Conference - 16 total. No team with over 15 losses in a season has been selected as an At-Large. Texas would have broken the model, but did not. This was a clear message from the committee that the 16+ loss mark is a deal-breaker.

2019 TCU
Our next case-study requires a bit more deep-diving to really get to the outcome. This is the resume of the 2018-19 TCU Horned Frogs, another team who made a run to the NIT Final Four. So please disregard the late March/early April results:

Before we dig in, here is the complete 1-68 Seed List from last year for your review. You will recall that Belmont, Temple, Arizona State and St. John’s were the last four teams selected and it was also announced that the first team out was UNC-Greensboro.

How can this occur when 182/195 bracketologists on the Bracket Matrix projected TCU in the field, you ask?

Let’s take a closer look. TCU was just 3-9 against the top quadrant with one win in Q1A (At Iowa State). The At Texas win was in the NET 40’s on Selection Sunday, making that win a Q1B win at time of selections. The Frogs were 6-4 against Q2 (removing the NIT wins). They only had two true road wins during the season (Iowa State, SMU). The three neutral court wins came against teams well outside of the field (USC, Ind. State, Bucknell). And they contributed three total home wins over the field (ISU, Florida, and Baylor).

Given the above information, I think TCU’s fate boiled down to two main sticking points.

1) Winning pct. against the top two Quadrants: 3-9 vs Q1, 9-13 vs. top 2 Q’s.
2) Did not accomplish enough away from home. The Frogs had 10 true road opportunities in the top two quadrants and only won twice (Iowa State, SMU. Only Iowa State made the field).

So, how does this apply to 2020?

Some of you may know where I am going with this, and if you said the 2020 Big Ten Conference, you are correct. The Big 10 has more teams (14) than the Big 12 (10), and that basic fact adds even more complexity than we faced in 2019. The decisions and precedents set last year are more than likely to have impacts on a multiple Big Ten programs on March 15th. Let’s take a look at who they might be.

Compares to 2019 Texas (16 losses):
1) Purdue: 14-12 overall record. Remaining Games: At Wisconsin, At Iowa. Home: Michigan, Indiana, Rutgers. Boilermakers have to go at least 3-2 here. A third loss means they will hit 16 losses in the Big 10 Tournament.
2) Minnesota: 12-12 overall record. Remaining Games: At NW, At Wisconsin, At Indiana. Home: Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska. Gophers do not have the same level of wins as Purdue, they need to go 4-2 or 5-1 to have any chance from here.
3) Indiana: 16-9 overall record. Remaining Games: At Minnesota, At Purdue, At Illinois. Home: Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Hoosiers do not have the resume strength without some of these wins. It’s all on the line for the Hoosiers here, they will need to win at least two games mathematically - but likely need three or four of these wins.
4) Wisconsin: 15-10 overall record. Remaining Games: At Michigan, At Indiana. Home: Purdue, Rutgers, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Badgers have a great current resume, but a late collapse would be the best comp to Texas of these four teams. Badgers still need to get at least two wins to be anywhere near safe.

You can see above that the 20-game conference schedule of the Big Ten makes it a nearly impossible mathematical possibility for the league to send over 11 members to the NCAA’s, even in a year like this one. Nine is the most likely number based on what we know thus far.

Compares to 2019 TCU (rough Quad records, and/or lack of wins away from home):
1) Purdue: Again the Boilers are in double-danger based on what we know. They are 3-9 vs Quad 1 (one win over Q1A), 7-10 against the top two Quads, and two additional losses in Quad 3 to add to the concern.
2) Minnesota: 4-10 vs. Q1/6-12 vs. Top 2 Q’s. Gophers have a lot of work to do.
3) Indiana: 4-7 vs. Q1/6-9 vs. Top 2 Q’s. Also Hoosiers lack any road wins over any Q1 or Q2 opponents. Two neutral court wins over UConn and Notre Dame give Indiana something to build on, but a true road win is likely needed down the stretch.
4) Rutgers: 2-6 vs. Q1/7-7 vs. Top 2 Q’s. It is well-known at this point that the Scarlet Knights need another win or two away from home. The only one to speak of is at Q3 Nebraska thus far.

In summary, both 2019 Texas and 2019 TCU will continue to be relavant examples for the rest of the 2020 Big 10 season and something to keep in mind while watching the string play out.

Bracketology Notes:

- Our rock steady top four, has become a rock steady top seven. Duke, Dayton, and Maryland are stabilizing in the five, six, and seven spots respectively. Teams in the 8-20 positions is where things get pretty difficult. Florida State found themselves as the eighth team selected, but mainly due to Seton Hall, Louisville, West Virginia, and Auburn all losing over the weekend. It made FSU practically the last man standing. You factor those four teams losing over the weekend combined with more impressive wins from Creighton, Penn State, and Kentucky plus a resurgence from Oregon and you start to comprehend the chaos in this area of the Seed List. I’ll admit I am slowly bringing Penn State up based solely on the negative Bracket Preview information we witnessed. Despite that, it is enough to get the Nittany Lions into the final 3-seed position today.

- Ohio State and Michigan have had rollercoaster campaigns in 2019-20, but have recently stepped it up. The Buckeyes beat up Purdue over the weekend and Michigan took care of Indiana with ease. Arizona also pulled off a Bay Area road sweep, and their NET is up to 8th besides a somewhat unparallel resume.

Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge Jr. each had 22 points Sunday at California as Arizona State collected an 80-75 win. ASU shot 47% from the field and received a double-double from Romello White (10 points and 10 rebounds). The win is ASU's fifth in a row, the program's first five-game Pac-12 win streak in 10 years.

- Speaking of Bay Area sweeps, the Arizona State Sun Devils pulled it off themselves. ASU now posseses six true road wins and the resume continues to improve and they have finally cracked the top 50 in NET. Bobby Hurley’s bunch is getting hot at the right time. Tomorrow night will be massive in the SoCon as ETSU hosts Furman. Each team has just two losses in conference, with Furman currently holding the tiebreaker. The Paladins have been a projected bid-stealer here for the past couple of weeks, this is an opportunity to really gain separation. I will be reporting live from ETSU tomorrow for this one, follow along here at Bracketeer.org.

- Cincinnati was able to survive at East Carolina on Sunday, giving them control of the American. With Arkansas and NC State losing over the weekend, Cincy now has the resume to be invited to the dance regardless. The two at-large spots now belong to Georgetown and Richmond. The Hoyas were phenomenal in their win on the road at Butler and now have a worthy body of work that warrants selection. Richmond picked up the final bid after a narrow comparison against Utah State. The Spiders win over Wisconsin, at URI, and overall body of work was barely enough.

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
AAC - Cincinnati
ACC - Duke
MAAC - Siena
MEAC - Norfolk State
Pac-12 - Oregon
SEC - Kentucky

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Furman)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Utah State, Purdue, Alabama, Mississippi State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Stanford, NC State, Arkansas, South Carolina
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Bracketology 02.14.20

A quick Friday projection for Valentine’s Day Weekend. Be sure to come back here on Monday for a full breakdown.

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
OVC - Austin Peay
Big South - Radford

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Furman)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Cincinnati, Utah State, Stanford, Richmond
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Georgetown, Memphis, VCU, Mississippi State
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Bracketology 02.11.20 - Purdue Pounces

Bracketology Notes:

- All previous bracket projections have been modified to fit what we learned during Saturday’s NCAA Bracket Preview show. The main adjustments since the show occured with Seton Hall’s win at Villanova, which yielded a Pirates jump over both West Virginia and Florida State. The Mountaineers themselves lost to Oklahoma following the show. That also allowed Maryland to assume the final 2-seed (which was projected here on Friday). Auburn was able to pass Villanova and Oregon after they each lost on Saturday. And Kentucky snuck up to the 14th position as a result of Butler also losing.

- Penn State became the most difficult team to place following the NCAA Preview teleconference. I learned during the call that their Non-Confrerence strength of schedule is a big issue preventing them from entering the top 16. I would personally vote to have them as a 4-seed, but now I will need to proceed with caution after Saturday. So the Nittany Lions sit in the 5-seed range today. Also, Houston has gained control of the AAC after demolishing Wichita State on Sunday. This means no more bid steal projection is coming from the AAC and Houston has moved into 7-seed position.

- Oklahoma was teetering with the bubble last week, but a vital win over West Virginia has the Sooners in a much better position now. Purdue made some impressive noise last week by destroying Iowa and then winning convincingly at Indiana over the weekend. It was the first road win over a projected tournament team this season for the Boilermakers. The two wins not only improved their NET and resume, but also put the Boilers four games over .500. A key column to follow for bubbling Big Ten teams, given all of the competition on a nightly basis.

Boilermakers earned their first road win over a projected tournament team - Indiana. Courtesy: BTN.

- The last four teams for selection was a challenge again today. I looked at ten teams for what amounted to seven spots. Northern Iowa is an auto-bid in that mix, the other six spots are the final at-large bids. The last bid came down to struggling Wichita State or Mississippi State. The Bulldogs do have a better NET (41) than the Shockers (50), but the MSU top two quad record is just 4-6 right now. If Missisippi State takes care of business with their remaining schedule, they will eventually pass resumes like Wichita State on the seed list. For today, the Shockers are in.

- ETSU was also selected as an at-large. With Furman taking the Automatic SoCon Bid, that now gives us a projected two-bid SoCon. The chances of this playing out will require ETSU to lose in the conference tournament to a team like Furman or UNCG, maybe Wofford or WCU. Then surviving a major sweat on Selection Sunday. The Bucs moved up 11 places to #43 in the NET last week following two road wins, putting themselves in decent shape for a bid. With the AAC not stealing a bid in this projection, our total bid stealer count remains one overall.

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
AAC - Houston
Big Sky - Montana
CAA - Hofstra
Ivy - Yale
MAAC - Rider
MEAC - N.C. Central
SEC - Auburn
SWAC - Prairie View A&M

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Furman)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Mississippi State, VCU, Memphis, Utah State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Richmond, Cincinnati, NC State, Georgetown
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Bracketology 02.08.20 - Bracket Reveal Saturday

Welcome to Bracket Reveal Saturday
- The NCAA will be revealing the top 16 overall seeds in what has become an annual February tradition called the NCAA March Madness Bracket Preview. The show takes place today at approx. 12:30pm EST during the pregame show prior to Kentucky at Tennessee. The purpose of the reveal is to get the selection committee together to do a dry-run of the selection, seeding, and bracketing process. They will only work through the top four seed-lines for the interest of time. Reports have said they evaluated approximately 24 resumes to determine the top 16. This allows us bracketologists to get a glimpse inside the thinking of the new committee in 2020 and additional insight on the NCAA’s year and a half year-old metric, the NET.

Some questions I have personally:

1. Where will Dayton land? It has been difficult to pin-point where Dayton belongs, due to their lack of opportunities.

2. San Diego State is undefeated. Do I have them correctly #4 overall, or does the committee give them more credit?

3. Maryland won a big road game at Illinois tonight, is that enough to get them a 2-seed? (Hint: I say yes)

4. Who lands at #16 overall? I believe Penn State does, but an argument can be made for Kentucky or even Michigan State to a lesser extent.

Regardless of the reveal, it will be an amazing day of basketball. And an insightful opportunity to be even further prepared for Selection Sunday. I will also be participating in a teleconference hosted by Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhardt, which allows media members to ask questions to committee members about the Bracket Show. I will report back with updates and further information here on bracketeer.org.

Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s Coverage
The excitement continues here at bracketeer.org on Saturday with the game coverage of Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s, in what promises to be one of the biggest games I will cover this season. Tip-off is set for 10pm EST. Be sure to follow along here and on twitter.

Bracketology Notes:
- In this bracket update, the major move happened late Friday with Maryland gaining a much needed quality road win. After further comparison, I like Maryland’s body of work just above Florida State. It was just enough to get the Terps on the 2-seed line. FSU and Maryland were both already in the South region, so the change worked out to be a simple swap between two and the three seed lines.

- Another difficult decision between Ohio State and Marquette took place for the final six-seed. Ohio State has accumulated higher quality wins but also has more stains on their resume. By comparison, Marquette does not have as great of wins, but they’ve gone relatively unscathed with the only “bad loss” coming against Providence at Home. Historically, the committee will slightly favor a team with the bigger wins in these cases if all other parts are close to equal. That gave me just enough confidence to seed Ohio State as the final six-seed.

- Xavier and Rhode Island continue to crawl up the board. Both are playing very well and now hold the top two 10-seed positions. Xavier won at DePaul and Rhode Island won at UMass earlier this week.

- The last four teams for selection was as difficult as ever today. Virginia and Memphis held on to two of the spots, and Stanford tumbled into another spot after losing at Utah. That left Mississippi State, Arizona State, Purdue, ETSU, and VCU for the final spot. After a deep dive into all five resumes, Arizona State to me stood out due to what they’ve accomplished away from home. The Sun Devils have the most quality Away/Neutral wins out of the bunch, and this is always a key consideration for selection. Especially the final selection. So the Sun Devils win out for now.

- Cincinnatil broke into the field as the new AAC Auto-Bid representative, effectively replacing Tulsa. Cincy had a season-changing win at Wichita State on Wednesday evening and Tulsa got beat at home against UConn, which opened the door for the Bearcats to leap into a share of the conference lead. Since Cincy has beat both of their fellow co-leaders Houston and Tulsa, the Bearcats claim the inside track to the top seed in the AAC Tourney.

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
AAC - Cincinnati
Big Sky - Montana
CAA - Charleston
Ivy - Princeton

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Cincinnati)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Purdue, Mississippi State, VCU, East Tennessee State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Minnesota, NC State, Richmond, Georgetown
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Bracketology 02.03.20 - Bubble Focus

Bracketology Notes:
- No changes yet on the top line. I wrestled with the idea of reordering Gonzaga, Kansas, and San Diego State in a few different varieties. My conclusion was that there wasn’t enough clarity yet to justify the shuffle. All three resumes have strong characteristics that are defensible, so I’m going to let this play out. Louisville and Duke were the beneficiaries of some carnage around them on the seed list. Seton Hall, FSU, Villanova, and Oregon all took a loss this past week. Speaking of Villanova, Creighton made the biggest move to #13 on the Big Board after getting a very impressive double digit win at Villanova.

- Auburn picked a nice home win over Kentucky on Saturday night plus the Tigers still have just two losses, both respectable (at Florida and at Alabama). Admittedly, I may be a little too low on Auburn, but I just simply like the resumes above them better for now. Their SEC counterpart, Arkansas, is coming off an important win at Alabama that now has the Razorbacks sitting comfortably in the 7-seed range.

- TJ Haws and his gutsy three-pointer from long distance to beat Saint Mary’s on Saturday night not only created a frenzy in Provo, but it really shows that this team can win the big games. The Cougars resume was creeping toward the cut-line, thanks to Haws they are much safer now. Rhode Island completed the season sweep of VCU on Friday night in convincing fashion. You cannot find many teams hotter than the URI Rams out there currently, now winners of eight in a row.

Bubble Talk:
- Virginia is back in the projected field for the first time since the early part of the season. The ‘Hoos have been playing better basketball of late, evidenced by their win over Florida State. In an ACC with three superior teams and not much else, bubble teams like Virginia need to pick up wins against the big three (Louisville, Duke, FSU) to really begin feeling better about their tournament chances. UVA now has an above .500 record against the top two quadrants, a Quad 1A win, and a 5-3 Away/Neutral record. Just enough to stand out above the rest.

- Memphis is in serious danger of losing a spot soon. The Tigers managed to survive this week against UCF and UConn in close calls. Just when Tiger fans thought they could breathe, the news of D.J. Jeffries came down. Jeffries will miss 4-6 weeks with a knee injury, a major blow to this Memphis roster. Memphis had impressive wins in non-conference at Tennessee and vs. NC State, sadly those are not looking quite as valuable today. Like UVA, Memphis has a winning record still against the top two quads, and a 5-3 A/N record, which puts them projected for the First Four.

- Mississippi State is a team trending in the right direction. It has taken the Bulldogs a lot of work to get out of the early season hole they played themselves into. A home loss to Louisiana Tech, a semi-home loss to New Mexico State, and an 0-3 start to SEC play had things looking bleak in Starkville. Since that time the Bulldogs are 5-1 with lone loss coming at Oklahoma by one. MSU now boasts wins at Florida and against Arkansas, plenty to build on going forward.

- Today’s last team in is Xavier. The Musketeers have been on the wrong side of the bubble lately, but a dominant win against a projected 2-seed, Seton Hall, has completely changed things. Xavier proved they can beat just about anyone when they are clicking, makes them a potentially dangerous tournament team. Being in the Big East, many more big games are ahead to improve their seed and the only perceived bad loss thus far on the resume is at Wake Forest.

- Arizona State, VCU, Georgetown are the first three teams out today. I am singling them out intentionally to discuss. Usually by this time of year their are not enough good resumes to fill 36 at-large slots. Well I think these three have a really good case to be fair, and today we actually have 39 worthy resumes for selection. That is destined to change with thousands of games to be played, but a stronger bubble than usual exists thus far. Keep in mind, Tulsa is stealing one projected bid still. So if no bids were stolen, ASU would have a spot in the field. East Tennessee State is not far off the mark either. Keep all of these teams on your radar closely. Below is a quick glimpse at the bubble picture.

2/3/20 Bubble Watch. Cut line is between Xavier and Arizona State.

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
ACC - Louisville
B1G - Maryland
Big Sky - Eastern Washington
C-USA - North Texas
MAC - Bowling Green
MEAC - North Carolina A&T
Pac-12 - Colorado
SoCon - Furman
Summit - South Dakota State

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Tulsa)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Arizona State, VCU, Georgetown, East Tennessee State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: DePaul, Richmond, NC State, Cincinnati
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