Another week of College Basketball has gone by and the turmoil within the race to 36 at-large bids is really cranking up. Under-five weeks remain until the bracket is revealed for real. The reality is that we have a season like no other in College Basketball. The extra Covid year has made so many teams more productive and dangerous. You combine that with the open-ended transfer portal and you get teams like Marquette and Providence, who continue to turn heads and make headlines in the Big East. More and more surprises are still in front of us, I truly believe.
SEED SUMMARY
TOP SEEDS
Kentucky just continues to take the nation by storm in recent weeks. This past weekend the Wildcats punished Alabama in Coleman Coliseum. Kentucky joins Auburn (our Top seed) as the only teams to win on Alabama’s home floor. The Wildcats are right on the cusp of entering the one-seeds. Kansas (a team that KY beat recently) had a big Saturday by blowing out Baylor and the overall Jayhawk body of work still holds up when compared to Kentucky’s body of work. Fear not, Wildcat fans, if UK keeps playing like this - they will be a one-seed in no time.
The aforementioned Marquette and Providence squads are sitting in great shape to be a protected seed. The Friars have one of the best resumes you’ll find, with a dominant 10-2 record against the top two quadrants and four elite wins (Quad 1A). It is very tempting to move the Friars up higher than a four-seed, however, the quality metrics are still averaging out near 40th overall, which gives me enough reason to believe the committee room would be divided on them. As for Marquette, the sweep over Villanova looms large as does their very impressive eight wins (counts WVU) vs. the projected field. The Golden Eagles also have four elite wins in Quad 1A.
MIDDLE SEEDS
Tennessee and Texas continue to have quite a bit in common besides their color schemes. Both the Horns and Vols have very impressive quality metrics. Really demonstrating that they can dominate the inferior and respectable competition. On the flip side, they have a need to pick up additional road wins to get up to protected seed status. Texas has the TCU road win and that’s a start, Tennessee does not have one yet against a team in the current field.
Saint Mary’s will look to get a rocking crowd later this month when the7 host Gonzaga. In the mean time, the Gaels are playing splendid basketball and moving up the Big Board.
Saint Mary’s has somewhat quietly won seven in a row. Most of the streak was against the beatable portion of the WCC, but the Gaels did mix in that key win at San Francisco. A critical week is ahead, as SMC heads to Santa Clara tomorrow and Gonzaga on Saturday, with a home game mixed in vs. San Diego on Thursday.
Wake Forest has arrived! In a few interviews last week, I mentioned that Wake Forest was grading out as a tournament team. The Deacs were left out of both bracket forecasts a week ago due to being near the bubble and an unprecedented OOC strength of schedule (333rd nationally). Because the Deacs continue to add on to their resume and win, they now are safely above the bubble danger for today and land as a Nine-Seed.
The Deacs are feeling good today, but need to keep winning.
BUBBLE
Creighton did not play well at Seton Hall on Friday and that has ruffled some feathers with their predictive metrics. I still believe the four key wins that the Jays possess (At Marquette, At UConn N-BYU, H-Villanova) reigns supreme when compared to the other bubble options. The overall profile is extreme in both directions and warrants sending Creighton to the First Four.
UNC is the most polarizing team out there. To me, everything is always done on a macro-level. So it makes no difference in my process if this were UNC or New Mexico. The facts are that the Heels are 0-7 vs. Q1 and that also happened to be the only seven teams they have faced within the tourney projected cutline. They are 16-0 against everybody else which includes a Quad 2B road win at Louisville. There is just enough there to keep them in the field because they have done no wrong (losses outside of Q1), however, a trip to Dayton is more than warranted.
The final two teams today are San Diego State and Belmont. I mentioned last week that both of these teams are very “selectable.” They have hung around despite the Aztecs’ heartbreaking loss to Colorado State and Belmont’s near-disaster at Tennessee Tech over the weekend. They both survived long enough to see the Big 12 recent fallout from West Virginia and Oklahoma and promptly replaced them both.
Oklahoma is finding itself on the wrong side of the bubble after simply piling up too many losses. The Sooners are just 7-10 in their games against the combined top three quadrants. This can become an issue for teams in the loaded Big 12, as each game is brutally tough to the point that it is seemingly destiny for a team or two to slip out of balance with poor records. Oklahoma needs a big-time win somewhere or an accumulation of solid wins to right the ship. You can also apply this same logic to West Virginia and Kansas State, two programs that are facing similar challenges.
UAB is a team that is difficult to place, and very much alive in the discussion. The Blazers have the two tough losses at Marshall and at Rice that would potentially make the committee hesitate. Whereas Belmont has a relatively clean profile and hasn’t been hit with the bad loss (yet).
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Oklahoma, Florida, UAB, Saint Louis
NEXT TEAMS OUT: West Virginia, Stanford, Dayton, Mississippi State
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