Bracketology

Preseason Bracket Forecast 2023-24 Season

THE 2024 NCAA TOURNAMENT ESSENTIALS

Building the bracket for the first time each season is always an enlightening process. Understanding where all of the tournament sites are located is critical to how the actual bracketing process works. Based on preseason forecasts (which runs deep around here!), a lot of interesting scenarios came up.

Creighton - Cannot play in Omaha during the first weekend. We have the Blue Jays as a one-seed, and that might be frustrating to Jays fans if they truly play up to this level all year long.

Tennessee - Knoxville is considerably closer to Charlotte than Memphis. So if the Vols are primed for a 2-seed, plan on them to take a key Charlotte pod away from one of the ACC powerhouses.

Michigan State - Spartans lost to James Madison last night, so grain of salt for today. However, if they play their way back into a top three-seed line, the lovely combo of Pittsburgh and Detroit is a very realistic path.

Arkansas - It seems as if the Razorbacks have had to travel far and wide in recent NCAA Tournament runs. Nearby Memphis would be welcome news for the rabid Hog community. A Grand Slam is possible if Hogs play well enough to get the Memphis-Dallas combo (although we are not forecasting it).

Gonzaga - Bulldogs may be disappointed with a 4-seed but the real news is there is nobody geographically looking to take Spokane (hosted by University of Idaho) from the Bulldogs above them on the Seed List. So it was still very easy to slot them in Spokane. Winner of the WCC will be important for who gets to be in the Los Angeles region, however, which currently is forecasted to GU.

The Dallas Regional - State of Texas has a lot of successful programs. Even as projected five-seed and six-seeded teams, Texas A&M, Texas, and Texas Tech can potentially all land in this region and create a nice path to the Final Four if they escape opening weekend.

USC and UCLA - A clear edge if either of these teams land in the Los Angeles Regionals. Current forecast calls for USC to land as a 6-seed with a path through Tinsel Town.

Virginia - Another program who would prefer to start the NCAA Tournament in Charlotte, lands there as the seven-seed and are aligned with the aforementioned Tennessee Vols.

Iowa State vs. Indiana - To be played in Indianapolis. The angle here is Creighton being the top-seed and not going to Omaha, had them take the second-closest pod in Indy. Would be a Hoosier-heavy situation if it played out this way.

Play-In Games - Because TCU is scheduled to play against Clemson in Toronto this season, we had to adjust the matchups and avoid a rematch. That left the Frogs facing Colorado State and paired Clemson vs. Ole Miss.

One-Bid League Representatives: These teams were all carefully selected based on how we best envision the season and conference tournaments playing out. Many are different teams than who we have winning the Regular Season titles, to be as realistic as possible.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely, Annual Average = 2.1 Bids taken)

FIRST FOUR OUT:
Charleston
Michigan
UAB
Mississippi State

NEXT FOUR OUT:
Rutgers
Oregon
Wake Forest
Northwestern

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Bracketology 03.11.23

FRIDAY SUMMARY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Big West - UC Santa Barbara (Highest Remaining Seed)
WAC - Southern Utah (Highest Remaining Seed)

  • Penn State appears to be safer than ever before with its trip to the B1G Semifinal round today. Nittany Lions picked up a win over Northwestern last night that continues to move them well inside the bubble.

  • Perhaps a new one-seed surprise coming tomorrow afternoon?

  • Tennessee lost to Missouri yet again, and there is more concern about how the committee might view the Vols, meanwhile the Tigers move up the board.

  • Duke has been on a mission this week. Notable win over Miami yesterday, and the most difficult team to seed right now. Giving the Blue Devils the benefit of the doubt with this committee.

  • Indiana, UConn, and Xavier are all making a case this week to move to the final three-seed spot. Going with the Hoosiers here initially. UConn did end up falling to Marquette last night. The Golden Eagles are knocking on the door of a 2-seed, along with Gonzaga.

  • The three toughest teams to keep in the field are NC State, Rutgers, and Providence. You’ll notice Pittsburgh is in the projected Dayton (First Four) field, however, the Panthers have a significantly better road resume mixed with better a win pct. in certain areas of the breakdown (namely when Q4 is removed, although Pitt has a Q4 loss to Florida State).

  • Oklahoma State, Nevada, and Vanderbilt are just outside the field this morning. With the Commodores being the obvious team to monitor.

  • Southern Utah rallied from down 23 points last night to earn a trip to the title game. It took some help from Utah Valley to miss six straight foul shots, and also this ridiculous four-point play by Tevian Jones:

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2022-23 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely, Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken)

FIRST FOUR OUT:
Oklahoma State
Nevada
Vanderbilt
Wisconsin

NEXT FOUR OUT:
North Texas
Oregon
North Carolina
New Mexico

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Bracketology 03.09.23

BRACKETING RECAP

For Today’s bracket post, I thought it may interest you in some of the many bracketing challenges that occur when building the bracket. This can ideally begin to explain some of the matchups that may not compute well on the surface to the majority of the College Hoops community.

SEEDS 1-2: No Changes

3-SEEDS: Gonzaga has moved ahead of Tennessee and that does get the Bulldogs out of the East and into the Midwest region. The Vols still get to open in Greensboro and are now aligned in the East. Gonzaga is still not able to get to the West region because of the Big 12 logjam. The rules state that the first four teams from the conference need to go to separate regions, IF, they are in the Top 16 (which is the case). So Kansas State must go to the West still. Gonzaga will need to move up to a 2-seed most likely in order to play in the most desired Las Vegas Regional. Bulldogs will however open in Sacramento in this case Today.

4-SEEDS: Indiana is the top four seed. Hoosiers would love to play in Louisville from a geographic perspective, however, the Louisville region was much too strong with Alabama (1), Texas (6) Marquette (10) already there, so Indiana (13th on Seed List) was moved to the Midwest. UConn ended up in the West Region because Xavier is just above the Huskies and I wanted to reserve the Louisville spot for 16th overall team (Virginia), due to the region balance.

5-SEEDS: No major news except Miami missed out on Orlando due to being in the same conference as Virginia and preferring not to be placed in the West. The Hurricanes still landed in Greensboro, where they are playing Today in actual Championship Week action.

6-SEEDS: Creighton was tossed around a few times before landing in Greensboro. Most of that was because both Kentucky and Texas A&M are both from the SEC and there were multiple matchup issues before finally landing in an acceptable position.

7-SEEDS: The challenge today was three Big Ten teams (Illinois, NW, Michigan State) are all here and Illinois could not be in the same pod as UCLA (the 2023 committee is seeking to avoid regular-season rematches in the Second Round as well as the First Round this season). Despite all of that, we made it work.

8-SEEDS: Mostly straightforward. Kansas fans probably don’t like seeing Iowa here in Des Moines, but Iowa’s campus is plenty far enough (above 75 Miles, which is the rule) to make it a reality. Also shuffled Arkansas and Mizzou a few times to avoid Alabama’s pod.

9-SEEDS: Maryland could not be in Purdue’s pod or play against Iowa. West Virginia could not be in the same pod as Kansas or Purdue (played each other in Portland).

10-SEEDS: Pittsburgh needed to avoid Duke, Northwestern. Mississippi State and Auburn both in the same conference made things narrow as well. Fortunately Boise State had more freedom to be placed where help was needed. But that means a date against Duke for the Broncos.

11-SEEDS: Nevada had to be moved a few times because San Diego State is a six-seed and they had to avoid that, and the Pack played Kansas State this year, so they avoided K-State’s pod. With the combination of Play-In Games factored in, NC State was only left with Greensboro, which is a really nice treat for a team seeded here. Nothing wrong with that because the six-seed is not protected from a geographical disadvantage, only the top four seeds are.

12-SEEDS: Worked out pretty straightforward. Drake’s closest choice was Albany, where they face Iowa State. I know locals may be skeptical about how likely this game is, but it’s truly how it played out today.

13-SEEDS: No issues to speak of, straight in order by geographical preference.

14-SEEDS: Furman has played against N.C. State and Penn State this season, so that sent the Paladins all they way to Sacramento for a date with Gonzaga. The other three fell into place. You might remember UC Irvine’s upset over Kansas State in the NCAA’s from a few years ago, but enough time has passed for that not to be a matchup issue any longer.

15-SEEDS: New Champ of the Big Sky, Montana State, faced Arizona earlier this year. Unfortunately for the Bobcats that means they won’t be sent to Denver, instead going to Sacramento to play UCLA.

16-SEEDS: Mostly clean. SE Missouri State was shuffled to avoid being in pods with both Iowa and Missouri due to those being rematches.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2022-23 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely, Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken)

FIRST FOUR OUT:
Oklahoma State
Rutgers
North Carolina
Wisconsin

NEXT FOUR OUT:
New Mexico
North Texas
Clemson
Vanderbilt

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.28.23

MONDAY RECAP

The biggest headline belongs to West Virginia, who rallied to pick up its best road win of the season at Iowa State last night. The win puts the Mountaineers back on the good side of the bubble. Once WV is in the field, they are well positioned for a decent seed and likely to avoid the First Four in Dayton due to outstanding performance measurements backed up by a mostly solid resume (minus the subpar Quadrant records).

Next, was Nevada falling by a considerable amount at Wyoming. The Pack also were hurt by New Mexico’s sudden loss against San Diego State on Saturday, because Nevada owns two wins over New Mexico - who for now is a non-tournament team. That leaves Nevada with two home wins against the field, SDSU, and Boise State. When compared to Boise State, the Pack do have the edge in Q1 results, but because two of the four are against the non-tourney Lobos, I believe you need more layers. That is where the Broncos really begin to shine. In the Top 2A for example, Boise State is 8-4, compared to Nevada’s 5-6. The Broncos’ win over Texas A&M happened on a neutral court and they add the home win vs. Nevada for their equal total of two NCAA-level wins. All other records favor Boise State and so do the metrics. Nevada has fewer bad losses. They both are 11-seeds with the major difference being Nevada is now a forecasted First Four team.

Baylor handled Oklahoma State on the road despite a late rally by the Cowboys. The Bears just keep stacking wins, with or without Keyontae George. For OK State - the losses are outweighing the wins at this point and they have a crucial finale at Texas Tech. A much-needed win for at-large hopes.

North Carolina was the last team in the field yesterday and holds that position still after collecting a road win at Florida State. Heels are still right on the edge and likely need to beat Duke this weekend.

New At-Large teams today represented below in the Field of 68:
West Virginia (11-Seed)

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2022-23 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely, Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken)

FIRST FOUR OUT:
Wisconsin
Oklahoma State
Utah State
Michigan

NEXT FOUR OUT:
New Mexico
Charleston
North Texas
Clemson

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

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