INTRO
Saturday. Oh baby, what a Saturday! A colossal meltdown by a high percentage of the best teams in the sport: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, Auburn, Kansas, Purdue all fell victims on the road. That is just the high-end carnage. Several other key results helped define today’s bracket forecast.
A complete reset was required and a fresh set of eyes on over 100 different NCAA Tournament hopefuls went into today’s forecast. The bottom line is this: We have eight or nine days until the committee will officially begin meetings and conduct voting. Some teams will not play a significant opponent between now and then. Others will play multiple significant games. As an example, Arch Madness is this week and all eyes will be on how the bubbling Loyola Ramblers perform. The variables remaining are plenty, but the days are not.
ANNOUNCEMENTS
Prior to diving into the bracket forecast, two very busy weeks are ahead. If you enjoy the work on this site, you will likely enjoy some deeper bracket talk coming too.
Fielding the 68 Show by FIELD of 68.- Every Monday and Friday at 6 PM ET. I will be on this Friday. A composite seed list will also be available on Mon, Wed, Fri this week.
Hoops HD - Championship Week - For the diehards. I will be on a panel most of the next two weeks reviewing and previewing each day of Championship Week. Also, visit HoopsHD.com for thorough Championship Week coverage, a Survival Board for teams being eliminated, and Conference Tournament brackets. (Linked is the Day 0 Episode with a quick prelude)
CBB Mock Selection Committee - Begins on Thursday! Be sure to sign up for the Zoom Link. This is the first year partnering with Stadium’s Tim Krueger and well-known Bracketologists Dave Ommen of Bracketville, Lukas Harkins of HeatCheckCBB, Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report, and Shelby Mast of the USA Today. Should be very educational for College Hoops lovers and people in the industry.
TOP SEEDS
Due to all of the shakeups, a careful examination was conducted here. The four top-seeds were not easy to determine. I even tried several angles at the Kentucky argument, but still just a little short until they get one more elite win away from Rupp or see one of these teams lose again.
The four top-seeds are Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas, and Arizona. The Bears became the largest benficiary by a wide margin following Saturday’s upsets. Baylor wins out over Kansas in nearly every comparable area, most importantly in wins over the field away from home (5).
Duke was also a team who benefited. They were able to bypass Purdue for now and I believe they are very close to passing Auburn in the pecking order. A safe two-seed for a team that the Selection Committee has already shown love for.
The Wisconsin Badgers are a team getting a lot of attention. Rightfully so. The Badgers have an unbelievable 11 wins against the forecasted field (includes RU and IU wins) and lead the nation with 12 away/neutral wins. It’s a resume that is so shiny on the top but the downside here is the home losses to Rutgers, MSU, and Providence. The losses at home stand out and likely play into the predictive metrics being lower (24.33 Average ranking). They do come in as the best 3-seed today as you have to appreciate what they’ve done when even compared to the juggernauts of Texas Tech, Villanova, and Tennessee (the next in teams inline).
Arkansas replaces Ohio State in the Top 16. In fact the Hogs positioned themselves to also jump ahead of UCLA to get to 15th overall. Four Quad 1A wins and a winning record at every level of the quadrant measurements combined with strong metrics helped make this decision.
MIDDLE SEEDS
Saint Mary’s is firmly in the five-six seed range after picking up the 10-point win over Gonzaga. The Gaels may get the chance to play Gonzaga again next week should both win in the Semifinal round. A second win gets them into the protected seed discussion.
It’s somewhat messy in the seven to eight seed range and I’ve doubled down a bit on looking at some of the quality metrics more to help separate these teams. The committee did this last season and I continue to lean on that example. The Iowa State’s and Marquette’s of the world would be disappointed with this I am sure, but this is why it’s an educated forecast.
Wyoming’s loss at home to San Diego State raises a few eyebrows about its body of work. The Cowboys still have a cluster of good road wins, but none came against projected tournament teams. The two wins the Cowboys do have against the projected field are both at Home (Colorado State and Boise State).
BUBBLE
The Final seven teams in order on the selected list are Miami, Notre Dame, Memphis, VCU, North Carolina, SMU, and Michigan.
Miami’s Jim Larranaga is looking for at least one more Tournament run before he closes the book on his career. The 11-seed has defined his legacy, as the 2006 Head man at George Mason. Larranaga’s Canes were also defeated by 11-seed Loyola-Chicago in the first round when Sister Jean & co. went all the way to the final four. So funny enough that the Canes are a projected 11-seed here in March.
The Hurricanes are on the most solid ground for getting in, thanks to a marquee road win at Duke and supplemental wins by sweeping Wake Forest, defeating North Texas in Orlando, and a home win over UNC. It’s an excellent collection of wins that helps Miami withstand some very shaky metrics. Notre Dame has also established themselves to a lesser degree by owning a mix of an elite win (Kentucky) and mix of other tourney-level wins (At Miami, UNC) combined with three total road wins in the top two quads with only one bad loss (at Boston College).
Memphis finds themselves in for now again and for now, just need to keep winning. A win this next weekend against Houston will likely put the Tigers over the top for good. A loss this weekend would set the stage for an anxious week at the AAC Tournament. SMU is guaranteed to be sweating out the AAC Tournament after their loss to Houston last weekend. The Ponies really need to take care of business this week vs. Cincinnati and Tulane at home.
North Carolina is just sitting there still right in the bubble mix. Very simple to select them, but UNC offers nothing special to like. Their only win against a team in or near the field is the home win over Michigan. They failed in each attempt to beat Notre Dame, Wake Forest, and Miami. Unfortunately for the Heels, only played each one time and all on the road. A win at Duke this weekend would almost certainly punch their ticket. Otherwise, they will still be sitting in this same spot next week. Giving other teams the chance to pass them by and send them to the NIT. Also, keep in mind that UNC swept Virginia Tech. If VT inches closer and closer to the right side of the bubble - that actually HELPS North Carolina. Heels fans are now Hokies fans, what a world.
Indiana and Rutgers find themselves absent from the bracket for very different reasons. Indiana is a difficult team to select for two primary reasons: 8-10 record against the top three quadrants and the 340+ OOC Schedule. As for Rutgers, a team that possesses a ton of big wins in Big Ten play, they are still at 10-11 in games vs. top three Quadrants and their own NET has slipped to a very concerning 83rd. NET history is brief, as it just launched in 2019. To date no team lower than 73rd has recieved an At Large.
With that said about IU and Rutgers, I felt compelled to include Michigan to get the B1G at least one of the three into the field. The Wolverines played a far tougher schedule and have done just enough to warrant an invite to Dayton.
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely, Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Indiana, BYU, Florida, Loyola-Chicago
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Rutgers, Oregon, St. Bonaventure, Virginia
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