What is a Bid Thief?
One of the many joys of doing Bracketology during Championship Week is the constant monitoring of the conference tournaments. More specifically the 10-12 tournaments that have at least one lock to make the field of 68 as an at-large. This opens up the possibility for another non-locked team to steal that league’s automatic bid by winning the conference tournament. More importantly, this takes a bid away from a projected at-large team. Such teams are commonly known as a bid thief.
2018-19 Murray State Racers - stole a bid from the pool of 36 at-large bids.
Last season, brought us four bid thieves. A rather large amount. Saint Louis (A-10), Saint Mary’s (WCC), Murray State (OVC), and Oregon (Pac-12) would not have made the field without winning their respective conference tournaments. The overall annual average is nearly 2.4 bids stolen per year. You should come to expect two to three bids taken from each bracket you follow during the season. Here at Bracketeer.org, there is special attention placed on this part of the equation.
You will notice on all of the bracket projections on this website, there is a section at the top called “Bids Stolen.” Selection Sunday is right around the corner, just five days away. The major conference tournaments are getting underway now. We just witnessed Utah State secure a bid last weekend after being on the bubble. We don’t know yet if they will qualify as a bid thief or not until this coming week concludes, but there is a chance they stole one.
It is time for a full review of what is still out there to be potentially taken away from the pool of at-large bubble hopefuls. Conferences are listed in order of liklihood of a thief.
Atlantic 10:
Dayton is in. Richmond is projected to be in the First Four.
Potential Thieves
Saint Louis is the team to watch here. The Billikens are the defending A-10 Tournament champions and gave Dayton all kinds of matchup problems during the two matchups this year. Losing a heartbreaker in Saint Louis, thanks to Jalen Crutcher, and a tight one in Dayton. SLU would face Dayton in a potential Semifinal. If Saint Louis can pull off the upset, they will put themselves squarley on the bubble and just needing one more win to secure the auto bid.
Rhode Island Rams are in the next best position to steal the bid because they have a bye into the Quarterfinals. I am not as high on the Rams due to their recent play, losing four of their final seven down the stretch. But keep in mind, two of those were against Dayton and one against the aforementioned SLU. Any team with Fats Russell on it, has a shot.
Duquesne falls under the Darkhorse category most. I do give the Dukes a fairly decent shot to get to the semifinals because they are in the same part of the bracket as struggling URI. If they can get on that type of roll, why stop there?
Saint Bonaventure would need to play their best ball of the season to get past Saint Louis right now, and then there is Dayton after that - I don’t see it happening.
The Rest Davidson, UMass, VCU, GW, Saint Joseph’s, Fordham, George Mason: Good luck!
AAC:
Houston is in. Wichita State is projected to be in the First Four. Cincinnati and Memphis are on the outside of the bubble, both likely need a trip to the Tournament Final in order to be selected, or even strongly considered.
Potential Thieves
Tulsa has been on Bracketeer.org’s projections multiple times this year. The Golden Hurricane won a share of the conference championship with Cincinnati and Houston. From the 3-seed position and with several supporters coming from Tulsa down to Fort Worth, it is pretty realistic to see this team win the tournament.
UConn has played very well down the stretch. This is the final hurrah for Huskies in the AAC, as they are heading to the Big East next season. They will need to take of Tulane, then Wichita State, and Cincinnati to make the final. They are capable of pulling that off. The questions are: how well will they perform in Texas (long ways from home), and how much love will they get from the conference?
SMU has the advantage of being closest to the tournament venue in Fort Worth. The opportunity to play less than 40 miles away from campus should provide the Mustangs with some inherent advantages. Tyson Jolly is also the type of player that can put his team on his shoulders to win a game late. The draw shows they would get Houston in the Quarters, should they take care of Temple. SMU managed to beat Houston in OT in their last meeting. The Ponies have just enough juice to keep your eye on them.
The Rest UCF, USF, Temple, ECU, and Tulane: Need a miraculous run to survive the weekend.
SEC:
Kentucky, Auburn, LSU are locks. Florida is virtually a lock baring a disaster. Mississippi State is on the outside looking in, but can make a strong at-large case with a run to the finals. Especially if they beat UK in the semifinals.
Potential Thieves
Tennessee played a gauntlet of a schedule down the stretch - facing Auburn twice, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Florida. The Vols held their own for the most part, including a signature victory at UK’s Rupp Arena. This demonstrated that we cannot take Tennessee lightly. They will take on Alabama on day one, they would then get another crack at Kentucky. Should the win that to get to the semi’s, the toughest team is behind them with only two rounds to go.
Alabama really struggled in their last two outings, getting dismantled by Vandy and Mizzou. I am not entirely giving up on the Tide because Nate Oats can coach against the elites, and this Tide roster is still really talented. Alabama has the same path as Tennessee if they are able to knock off the Vols.
Texas A&M is playing thier best basketball of the season, and like a team that we do not recognize compared to the first half of the year. Buzz’s bunch has won at Auburn now and finished by going 5-2 in their final seven games. Even better news for the Aggies, they have a realistic path to the title: open with Mizzou, next would be Auburn, then LSU perhaps. Based on recent results, Aggies have a real chance to advance a few rounds and make things interesting.
Arkansas may have the most interesting at-large case, but they also have a rough draw. The Razorback journey begins tonight against an upstart Vanderbilt team and the tournament is in Nashville. Should Arkansas advance, they still need to win five total games in five days. The more realistic path is to win three or four games and really give the committee something to think about for selection. Isaiah Joe missed crucial time earlier this year, and the committee can take that into consideration.
South Carolina shot themselves in the foot by losing to Vanderbilt over the weekend. This likely cost the Gamecocks any leftover chance at an at-large. You cannot completely count out Coach Martin in March and they are on the “nicer” side of the bracket, so keep your eye on them this week.
The Rest Mizzou, Ole Miss, Georgia, and Vanderbilt are longshots.
Pac-12:
Oregon, Colorado, Arizona, USC, and Arizona State are locks. UCLA is on the cusp, and needs a good showing in Las Vegas to earn an at-large. Stanford needs to win likely two games (includes UCLA) in order to feel strongly about an at-large bid.
Potential Thieves
Washington is coming off an impressive trip to the desert where they won at both ASU and at Arizona to grab everyone’s attention. Later today, they will open the conference tournament against Arizona. It is no secret that UW has the talent to play with anyone in the league, did the Huskies finally get it figured out as a team last week? We will find out soon. The path won’t be easy: need to beat Arizona, USC, and likely Oregon just to make the Title Game.
Oregon State is on their final hurrah with their all-time leading scorer, Tres Tinkle. The statrting five contains all upperclassmen. This has been another inconsistent season for the Beavers. We’ve seen glimpses of greatness in their wins over Oregon, at Colorado, at Stanford, and against Arizona. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain in Vegas this week.
The Rest Utah, WSU, and Cal have all shown they can hang. The Pac-12 had a very strong league this season largely because the bottom of the league has vastly improved. This trio has really struggled away from their home courts and because of that, they cannot be considered serious bid thief contenders.
ACC:
Florida State, Louisville, Duke, and Virginia are locks. N.C. State is the key team this week for the bubble picture. Wolfpack are right near the cut-line and likely need two wins this week to feel decent about their chances.
Potential Thieves
North Carolina has stirred up a lot of questions up over the past few weeks. By now, you know that this has been a tremendously uncharacteristic season for the Tar Heels. They dealt with the Cole Anthony injury and he is back healthy now, but perhaps most importantly they have seen outstanding production out of Garrison Brooks. The Heels dismantled Virginia Tech yesterday, to setup a matchup with Syracuse today. They just dominated the Orange recently. After this, they would play Louisville. They win that one, all bets are off. The reality of winning of five games in five days is pretty daunting. If it will ever happen, perhaps this talent-rich UNC team is the one to pull it off. Either way, it will be exciting to watch.
Notre Dame has been hanging with most everyone lately. The Irish were blown out at Duke and let one slip away at Wake Forest, but besides that they have been one of the most competitive team in this league. Finding a way to pull some of these close ones out, is another story and Mike Brey needs to have an answer beginning today. You have to like the Irish draw. They play BC today, then a hot Virginia team tomorrow if they win. ND matches up well there and has a real chance to make noise this week.
Syracuse has had an up and down year. They find themselves in a bid thief position this week, which is not ideal for a program with such a rich tradition. They take on UNC today, will not be easy at all. Should they advance, they get Louisville. The Orange needed to be listed because they have the talent and the 2-3 zone, which can yield upsets.
The Rest Clemson, Miami, BC, Pittsburgh are very much longshots. Wake Forest and Virginia Tech were eliminated yesterday.
Highly Unlikely Bid Thief Conferences:
Big 12, Big Ten, Big East
Potential Thieves
Purdue faces the brutal challenge of trying to beat four tournament caliber teams in four days. The journey begins with Ohio State tomorrow. Boilermakers have shown they belong with a top 35 NET ranking, they just have not won enough games overall to warrant an at-large. Let’s see if they can put a run together in local Indianapolis this week.
TCU beat Baylor not long ago. The Horned Frogs will get another chance to do that if they take care of Kansas State in the opener. In the event they win that one, they would get West Virginia or Oklahoma in the semifinals, not bad at all. Once they get to the final, anything can happen.
Georgetown has been shorthanded all year. The fact that they remained in the bubble picture for most of the season is amazing. Just last weekend, the Hoyas had Villanova on the ropes but squandered the lead late. Now, they may be catching a break if they can beat St. John’s in MSG (never easy to do). Creighton is the top-seed waiting for the winner, and is likely without Marcus Zegarowski. This could open things up for a semifinal run for Georgetown, we shall see.
The Rest Minnesota, Oklahoma State, St. John’s are stretch darkhorses. Nebraska, Northwestern, DePaul, Kansas State, and Iowa State would be ecstatic with even one win this week.
Summary
It is difficult to envision any of these teams winning their tournaments this week and pehaps they won’t. But do we ever see these things coming? Usually not.
Here is a complete Bid Thief Board that will be tracked and updated this week:
Top 20 Rankings in order of most likely to win their respective Conference Tournaments.