Bracket Watch: Most Important Games of the Coming Days
The presents have been opened, the office Holiday parties have come and gone, and it’s full steam ahead into the calendar year of 2023. Bracket Watch is back for the first time this season. Far too early to know how the bracket will start to form, some games this week will begin to help that process as conference races will both launch and relaunch. With Non-Conference play over 90% complete nationwide, the landscape has shifted to a conference championship focus.
Several teams will elevate their play in league play, and several will disappoint. It is the nature of the beast. It is the nature of having advanced scouting and knowing your league inside and out. Complex defenses will be displayed more frequently. Unlikely heroes will emerge. Surprise teams will steal headlines. We love it all. So let’s dive into the very early stages of the 32 races.
In each Bracket Watch column, the games previewed are most clearly divided into three important categories.
· Heavyweight games: Games that will impact the top 16 teams on the seed list. Better known as protected seeds.
· Bubble games: Games that will most influence teams inside or outside of the bubble.
· Conference Leader games: The opportunity for the lead in any given league to change hands.
The top five games in each grouping are selected for the coming time period. This is a carefully reviewed process that takes into account the full schedule and amount of opportunities (especially in the conference races section). Enjoy!
HEAVYWEIGHT GAMES
Blake Hinson has led Pitt to a resurgent month of December and 2-0 start in ACC play. Can the Panthers handle UNC at Home?
5. North Carolina at Pittsburgh, Friday, Noon ET, ACC Network
No, Pitt does not quite qualify as a heavyweight yet. But you cannot discount the surging Panthers winning eight of its past nine contests. Blake Hinson (pictured) has been simply dynamite of late. Hinson has achieved “KenPom MVP” status in four of the eight victories, scored in double-figures in all games during the streak, and has an exceptional 118.4 ORating while playing at a 78.7% minute share. Hinson, at 6-7, has the Panthers dreaming big in a down ACC. After a 1-3 start, Pitt is now 9-4 and most importantly, 2-0 in ACC play following two road wins in the conference over NC State and Syracuse. At large aspirations are realistic right now. A home win against UNC of course would get them further on the radar. The Tar Heels have played their worst ball when outside of the State of North Carolina. Losing at Indiana handily, struggling in Portland (losing twice), and a tough visit to Virginia Tech. Since the road woes occurred, the Heels are “getting right” with wins over Ohio State (in NYC), Michigan (in Charlotte), and Georgia Tech at Home.
This game serves as a true litmus test for where both programs stand. And both teams come into it feeling good, which adds to the excitement.
Coach Matt McMahon enters SEC play with a lot of questions that will be answered in short order.
4. Arkansas at LSU, Wednesday, 9 PM ET, ESPN2
We begin here with a look at the Hogs who are dealing with a key injury to Nick Smith and won’t play. Of course, Arkansas has already lost Trevon Brazile for the season as well. The Razorbacks will lean on a rotation similar to the one used in its win vs. UNC Asheville just before the Holiday break. Likely starting two Frosh in Anthony Black and Jordan Walsh, to go along with Davonte Davis, Makhi Mitchell, and Ricky Council. Last time out, Arkansas also had solid contributions from Jalen Graham, Kimani Johnson, and a third Frosh – Joseph Pinion. I fully expect this to be the main eight going forward rotation-wise. Will this group travel well? We are about to find out. Currently, Arkansas would be somewhere around a 3-seed bracket-wise at 11-1 and quality outings in Maui. The heavy lifting begins now in the rugged SEC. For LSU (also 11-1), the journey has been less sexy. LSU lost in a tough Championship Game to Kansas State in its only loss (by two and with controversy). Tigers were able to survive a cluster of home game scares vs. Wofford (by three), UT Arlington (by four), and ETSU (by four). The Tigers had a resume win in Atlanta vs. Wake Forest in the closing seconds.
With Senior leadership and big game experience from KJ Williams and Justice Hill, LSU might just be a late-game team. The Tigers are closing out most tight games thus far, but the concern is that the talent gap hasn’t been there against seemingly inferior competition in too many games. That tells me that LSU will clearly need to grind out SEC wins. Will they grind out enough to stay in the NCAA hunt? That mission begins with Arkansas at home.
Uros Plavic and the imposing Volunteer frontline may be too much for Ole Miss.
3. Tennessee at Ole Miss, Saturday, 5 PM ET, SEC Network
The Rebels provided a boatload of cold water onto this preview with its stunning 66-65 loss to North Alabama on 12/20. Ole Miss now enters SEC play with an 8-4 record and work to do. The win over shorthanded Florida Atlantic (#11 NET) and a couple of decent wins over Stanford, Chattanooga, and Temple did at least provide room for hope. In the battle back to the NCAA picture a marquee win or two will be required. Enter the Tennessee Vols. No better way to get an awful taste out of your mouth than beating a top team in the country and a potential league favorite. Ole Miss does have mostly strong defensive marks, the question becomes how will they generate enough points in this one? Since returning from the Orlando event during Thanksgiving weekend, the Rebels have not scored more than 65 points in any of their five outings. Shooting numbers are poor (Ole Miss is #199 in eFG%). Three-point numbers are worse (31.4% as a team, good for #275 in the country). Theo Akwuba, a 6-11 Grad Transfer from Louisiana is the only player above 6-8 in the rotation, yet only logs around 15 minutes per game at most. This is a massive challenge against an imposing Tennessee front line that has 7-1 Uros Plavsic, 6-9 Oliver Nkamhoua, 6-11 Jonas Aidoo, and two lengthy 6-8 frosh Julian Phillips and Tobe Awaka in a deeper rotation. Hard to envision a Rebels win, but Tennessee simply doesn’t show up at times and Ole Miss should be angry after the UNA embarrassment.
2. Kentucky at Missouri, Wednesday, 7 PM ET, SEC Network
Tiger fever has reached a decade-long high after the blowout win over Illinois in the annual Braggin’ Rights game last week. Missouri has played largely well in non-conference play but the skeptics wondered about the competition they faced. After all, Mizzou did not play in a traditional high-level tournament, instead, they hosted Coastal Carolina and Mississippi Valley State and wrapped the two games into a larger traveling event under the NCAA’s recent MTE standards. That coupled with six other home guarantee games against no teams in the Top 150 left a lot of mystery. A blowout loss to Kansas made the prognostications sketchier. But Dennis Gates and crew got a key win in Sunrise, FL over UCF and earlier in a rally at Wichita State that may have altered the confidence level of this group. How else do you explain a 22-point drubbing over Illinois that was not competitive? So now the hype is at a fever pitch and in comes Kentucky.
A perpetual target is on the back of John Calipari-led teams. Here we have a classic matchup between a hot team that has waited years to be good again and Kentucky, led by Calipari. Kentucky’s season has been less than smooth. In three of the four “showcase games,” the Wildcats failed. Convincing losses to west coast powerhouses Gonzaga and UCLA, and a tough double OT loss to Michigan State have many wondering what is wrong in Lexington? Kentucky has taken care of business in all other performances, most notably a four-point win against a struggling Michigan team. A lot is left to be determined, however. The Wildcats have really struggled to get to the foul line and convert when they do get there. They are also not forcing a lot of turnovers. Look for Kentucky to start cranking up the intensity now that SEC play is here. Perhaps a road win in Columbia is just what the doctor ordered?
Oh baby! The Hump will be rocking for this SEC Opener.
1. Alabama at Mississippi State, Wednesday, 9PM ET, SEC Network
The Tide and Bulldogs have both made headlines throughout non-conference play. Has there been a better coach personality and institutional fit than Chris Jans at Mississippi State? I say no. His ability to find players and get them through the gates works wonderfully well in Starkville. The Bulldogs had an unbelievable performance in the Fort Myers Tip-Off win over Marquette by holding the Golden Eagles to zero second-chance points. I read a ton of box scores, and haven’t seen that (although I’m sure it’s happened somewhere). The point is that MSU has a physical grinding team that rebounds exceptionally well and will play through 6-11Tolu Smith at times. In fact, in MSU’s only loss vs. Drake – Smith had his fewest shot attempts. Lesson: feed the big fella! The Bulldog defense has been tenacious, ranking in the top ten in several important categories nationally – Adj. D Efficiency, eFG%, Foul Line frequency, opposing two-point % shooting, and Steal rate. These guys are absolute pests out there and will physically drain you. Is Alabama ready for this? We shall see. The Tide possesses an arsenal of offensive weaponry. A team under Nate Oates will never be shy to accelerate the pace, fire from deep, or attack the basket. The excellent spacing provides more opportunities to beat a great defense. This is what makes this matchup so intriguing, no question. Alabama’s win at Houston is arguably the best resume win right now in the nation, but they could not handle UConn and got outpaced by Gonzaga. With a strong SEC season, Bama is in play for a one-seed. For the Bulldogs in Jans first season, securing a bid would be a great success. This start paves the way. Beating Alabama and other top teams will only continue to raise the bar. Looking forward to a great chess match tonight.
BUBBLE GAMES
5. San Francisco at Santa Clara, Thursday, 10 PM ET, WCC Network
A void fills the bracketology landscape with the fall of the Atlantic 10 and both the ACC and Pac-12 having some uncertainties at the moment. Enter the competitive WCC, where both San Francisco (NCAA last year) and Santa Clara (NIT last year) are on the ascent as programs. Locally, they brand this game as “The Battle of the Bay.” Last season, I was fortunate to cover both of the matchups. Which seems mostly meaningless now due to Todd Golden’s departure and key personnel differences this season. One exception could be the ultra-high-level offensive showcase that occurred on the Hilltop last January, an 88-85 regulation win by the Dons. The game featured a high level of skills, shot-making, and dynamic offense. I feel like these traits have a chance to hold true Thursday night at the Leavey Center. The big story in the South Bay is Illinois transfer Brandin Podziemski. Better known as “Podz” to us, Podz has a wide-ranging skill. He has been a stat-sheet stuffer and has not always been the go-to guy. He’s been accepting of it when it is not his night to score. On the flip side, he has been a top scorer in the WCC. Opened the year with two straight 30+ point games and later hung 27 on both Iona and Sacramento State. Guard Carlos Stewart has had the more frequent hot hand, going for 22+ points in four of the past seven SCU games. Two proven scorers now are surrounded by experience and team winners – Keishawn Justice, Jaden Bediako, and Parker Braun. The Broncos improved to 12-3 on the year after taking care of a tough Boise State club by 15. It’s the second key win of the season to go along with the Iona win in Vegas. Unfortunately, SCU has a home loss to local rival San Jose State and will need more big wins. This game vs. the Dons looms large and is followed by Saint Mary’s (also at Home) this Saturday. Coach Herb Sendek needs to formulate an NCAA Tournament-type strategy to prepare his Broncos for two wins in three days against high-level competition.
The Dons of USF come in after an exhausting, yet fruitful week. Four games in six days were played by the Dons prior to the Christmas Holiday. The Dons achieved resume-building wins at UNLV and a memorable blowout victory over Arizona State (who came in 11-1). The issue is the home loss to UT Arlington (currently #285 in NET) will not leave Q4 status this season. Dons cannot think about that now, they’ll need to be a top-three team in the WCC and earn wins like these on the road to warrant serious consideration. I am enthused by the effort and character of this San Francisco roster and at Santa Clara for that matter. A great game between three-loss teams who challenged themselves outside of the WCC is in store.
When PJ Hall is in rhythm, good things happen at Clemson. Can the Tigers build on its 2-0 ACC start?
4. N.C. State at Clemson, Friday, 4 PM ET, ACC Network
A matchup between squads who aspire to be in the bubble discussion in two months and have enough upside to be encouraged about. The Clemson Tigers are 2-0 in ACC play and that is a great way to build on the positives. Losses to South Carolina and Loyola-Chicago certainly aren’t doing favors for its resume, but Clemson has at least somewhat of a key home win over Penn State at home in addition to the Wake Forest and G-Tech wins. The Tigers have a two-game road swing through Virginia Tech and Pitt right after this contest, so a premium will likely be placed on securing a win. At 10-3, the Tigers will almost assuredly to get above 20 wins to have a shot at dancing. This is based on its relatively low number of quality wins away from ACC play. The Wolfpack enter Littlejohn Coliseum at 1-2 in ACC play and do not have a true road win (0-1). The roster is really intriguing behind Terquavion Smith. Jack Clark has been playing well, DJ Burns is logging all-time high minutes and is a matchup nightmare, Casey Morsell is experienced and brings a winning attitude, and Jarkel Joiner has played a ton of ball. All of this is exciting for a Pack team that also went 2-1 in the vaunted Battle 4 Atlantis. The Pack has wins over Dayton, Butler, and Vanderbilt all on neutral courts that they hope age better than they stand now. In the meantime, a road resume is also required work for an at large. That can begin at Clemson. In a tiny sample size, Clemson has the most efficient ACC-play defense and #2 Offense. Let’s see if the Wolfpack can disrupt.
3. Boise State at Nevada, Wednesday, 10 PM ET, Mountain West Network (Online)
This section is all about the bubble. Now, we don’t have a clear picture of what that is – we do know that Nevada needs some wins to be a part of it. No better place to start than the MWC league opener. These Wolf Pack have shown flashes in wins over Tulane, Akron, Grand Canyon, and upstart Sam Houston. All good programs and Sam Houston win matters right now, but Nevada will need to make their mark on a super-competitive Mountain West to get any serious consideration.
Nevada has done a fantastic job of protecting the basketball, getting to the foul line, and knocking down free throws. It can demoralize opposing defenses, especially at the friendly confines of the Lawlor Events Center. That is certainly the key tonight in my eyes – as Boise State has made a ton of hay on defense, with the 15th-best defensive efficiency in the country. It’s the most daunting in the league. The Broncos do such a great job at limiting second chances and contesting shots. The Bronco offense can go through long stretches without a consistent flow, however, and that has created issues. Nevada’s defense can cause poor shooting percentages, so it’s certainly in play as well. Boise State picked up a road win at Saint Louis and beat Colorado and Texas A&M on neutral courts. They could use some help from all three going forward, otherwise, they have a lot of work to do in the MWC like Nevada. Key matchup at this stage.
Auburn’s Chris Moore is part of a deep Tiger rotation and makes his minutes impactful.
2. Florida at Auburn, Wednesday, 7 PM ET, ESPN2
Yes, another SEC matchup! With the majority of power leagues starting on the weekend, the SEC is taking center stage immediately. The spotlight solely is on the Gators tonight. In Todd Golden’s first year at the helm - trends are forming. A tendency to annihilate inferior opposition and fold a little quicker against teams in their weight class or better. The first point has allowed the Gators to remain a Top 50 NET team thus far, but they do not have a quality win to show for it. Gator losses to FAU, Xavier, West Virginia, UConn, and Oklahoma leave UF in a position outside of the Big Dance for now. The SEC is full of opportunities. The first one comes tonight in Golden’s SEC debut at Auburn to take on his old mentor, Bruce Pearl. The Tigers would safely be in today, but it’s a resume not built on a lot. The schedule was below average, and the Tigers took a loss at USC last week before pounding Washington in Seattle. Gators can be a loose team with multiple options, so it’s always interesting to see where the focus level lies On the Plains. The Gators need to expect Auburn’s A-game here in the league opener and will need to really improve shot selection and decision-making in a tough road environment.
1. Xavier at St. John’s, Saturday, 9 PM ET, FS1
Here is one to feel good about. Two teams who can easily be in the bubble picture for the long haul. Yes, Xavier would be in today and St. John’s would be out. However, the Big East schedule yields to a variety of ups and downs. Tonight’s matchup could provide our first swing – at least the Red Storm hope so. The Johnnies (1-1 in Big East) have handled its business against inferior talent. That includes wins over Syracuse, DePaul, Florida State, Temple, Nebraska, and a slew of low-major teams. Yet when tested against Villanova last week and earlier against Iowa State – they failed. Xavier will easily be the toughest home test for SJU (currently 10-0 in NYC area games). Can the Johnnies roll? Won’t be easy.
Red Storm are a perfect 10-0 in the NYC Area. Xavier will bring its toughest test yet.
The Musketeers enter this one on a six-game win streak that includes beating a hot West Virginia program in early December. Xavier has a top ten offense, the sixth best eFG%, and are the third best shooting team from distance. Weapons, weapons, weapons. That presents multiple challenges for St. John’s who hasn’t guarded that strongly to date. Xavier has more holes defensively that new coach Sean Miller is trying to clean up. I’d expect an offensive showcase that should come down to the wire. No doubt, St. John’s needs this one.
CONFERENCE LEADER GAMES
5. Cleveland State at Youngstown State, Thursday, 8 PM ET, ESPN+
The Vikings were the surprise of early league play in early contests against both Detroit Mercy and Oakland, beating them in convincing fashion. CSU will take its 2-0 league record east to Youngstown to take on a quality YSU team, who was my preseason pick to win the league’s automatic bid. The Horizon League will have battles that create rollercoasters throughout the year due to the travel partner and one-day-off configuration. Many coaches prefer to go all in on the first game, and that should certainly be the case in a competitive tilt like this one. An important week for the Penguins with a hot Purdue Fort Wayne visiting on Saturday. CSU heads to RMU, another feisty team of late. So, we’ve got a big week across the board. Now to the matchup.
Cleveland State will need to generate consistent offense as they did in the first two Horizon games to handle an efficient YSU attack. This could be tricky because Detroit Mercy and Oakland have little resistance on defense and the Penguins are a step up. When CSU left league play they scored less than 60 points in all three matchups against the Bonnies, Kent State, and LMU. Sure, that’s stiffer competition – but the Vikings had no flow. They’ll need that here. When YSU has the ball, CSU will depend on its Top 50 defensive eFG% to cause forced shots and poor Penguin decisions. CSU arguably has the most effective defense in the Horizon, and that will keep them in games all year – should it continue. YSU has been a well-oiled offensive machine thru 13 games. High marks in free throw shooting, 3-point shooting, 2-point shooting, eFG%, and second-chance opportunities have carried the Penguins to a 9-4 start. Youngstown State has been even more explosive in their home digs of the Beeghly Center, where they’ve scored 79 or more in all contests to date. Vikings have their defensive work carved out. Difficult to envision a scenario where YSU scores less than 70 in this building, so the question comes back to the Vikings’ offense – where is the scoring going to come from?
4. UC Santa Barbara at Cal State Fullerton, Thursday, 9 PM ET, ESPNU
When the Big West is on ESPNU – we are typically in for a treat. I believe we will see that this evening at Titan Gym in Fullerton. It’s the Big West opener. CSUF is your defending Big West Tourney Champs. UCSB is the preseason pick to win the league. National TV. What more can you ask for?
Titans are breaking in new faces following last season’s run to the NCAAs, yet still have Latrell Wrightsell Jr. running the point, Vincent Lee, Tory San Antonio, and Jalen Harris – who each had roles last year. Wrightsell is someone to watch closely as he missed the win vs. Sacramento State just before the Holidays with Back Spasms. In that CSUF win, the Titan defense held the Hornets to 49 points and got Jalen Harris going again – who led the squad with 19. Harris had rough outings in a lot of the CSUF outings, getting positive production from Jalen has been a key ingredient to success for CSUF early on. Big West play offers new life for the Titans and the chance to start over. In come the Gauchos of UCSB. Led by the super Sophomore, Ajay Mitchell. Joe Pasternack’s bunch comes at teams in waves. He went nine deep (all guys getting at least 10 minutes) to wear down Appalachian State in the Jerry Colango Classic recently. Mitchell is the steady constant piece out there as long as the game is tight, the other eight seem to rotate rather interchangeably. Andre Kelly was the big portal prize, transferring in from Cal. In a few recent games, Kelly got in early foul trouble and Pasternack trusted and leaned on 6-9 Frosh, Koat Keat Tong in the App St. game. Tong rarely shoots or scores, but he brought down nine rebounds in that one and clogged things up on defense. This more speaks to the varying strategies you may see from game to game from the Gauchos. They haven’t been able to completely dominate like some preseason models suggested (Preseason #80 per Torvik), so they are creatively grinding out wins and treating each possession like gold. UCSB is a Top-15 team in defensive rebounding, so limiting the opponent to one shot is a vital element of the plan. One other note, Gauchos were swept by the Titans last season and that has to be on the mind of the uber-competitive Pasternack.
3. Troy at Southern Miss, Thursday 8 PM ET, ESPN+
If you would have told me that the opening night of Sun Belt play would have this as the game of the night, I would have done a double-, no scratch that, triple-take back at you. Southern Miss has been The Surprise of all of the land this season in non-conference play. Early wins at Vanderbilt and Liberty put the Golden Eagles on the radar. Consistent play beyond that has proven they are a legit contender at 11-2 entering league play. Southern Miss has been efficient on both ends of the floor and has a great ball pressure system that is causing turnovers on 22.5% of opponent possessions and allowed the team to be in the Top 25 in Steal rate. Easy buckets are lovely, and coach Jay Ladner’s team is looking for them at all moments. The Golden Eagle program has been down for years and Ladner’s first three years back at his Alma Mater were not friendly (9-22, 8-17, and 7-26). They have only won a total of 10 conference (CUSA) games under Ladner. Now, the program is rejuvenated. There is also a new league and new history ahead within the Sun Belt. Can Reed Green Coliseum get rockin’ for Sun Belt games? I’d hope so. This school has an unbelievably well-supported Baseball and Football program – so it’s time to get rowdy for Hoops!
Reed Green Coliseum has been mostly empty in recent memory. Will the fans pack this place for Sun Belt action?
Enter the Troy Trojans. Coached by the maestro himself, Scott Cross. One of the most respected coaches you will find in the region – he maximizes his talent consistently and will throw a wide variety of defensive schemes at teams, particularly good teams. I’d argue that this is the most talent Cross has had at Troy since his arrival in ’19-20. Like So. Miss, the Trojans have forced a high volume of turnovers. More specifically, they cause confusion. A lot of misguided passes out of bounds, charge calls, dribbles off the foot, etc. It can be a nightmare in segments for opposing ball handlers. On offense, they are a Top 40 team at both ball protection and not getting a shot blocked – which is a clue into shot selection in the paint being a strength for these Trojans. They do not shoot well from distance very often, and that helped Mercer upset Troy last week (Trojans fired 24 threes, sunk just seven). Troy did win at Florida State earlier this season, and they are a team we expect to pull off multiple upsets during Sun Belt play. Does it begin tonight?
The Dynamic Duo of Woodbury and Justin Harmon look to stay hot against At-Large Hopeful Sam Houston in Orem.
2. Sam Houston at Utah Valley, Thursday, 8 PM ET, ESPN+
Things are heating up with this matchup. UVU caused this matchup to achieve blockbuster status by winning at Oregon recently. You couple that with the Wolverines’ dominant win at BYU and you’ve certainly got my attention. The esteemed Jordan Majewski made a comment about UVU playing thru its wings this season (both Trey Woodbury and Justin Harmon) in lieu of the big man (Fardaws Aimaq, now at Texas Tech) of old. Since the 18-point loss at Boise State over a month ago, UVU has ripped off six straight wins which include the high-profile road wins at Oregon and BYU. Sam Houston has been the darling for many for the non-conference with even bigger road wins at Oklahoma and at Utah under its belt. Sam will suffocate offenses with immense pressure to the tune of becoming the seventh-best forced turnover team in the country and the eighth-highest steal rate. Like many programs in Texas, ball pressure is king. The dream is alive still today on December 29th for an at-large bid, but the rugged WAC travel and parity make that unlikely. Still, Coach Jason Hooten has a talented group. Will the ball pressure travel to the altitude again? Offensively, the Bearkats are a Top 20 team from distance in the country. However, in the losses at Oklahoma State and at Nevada – they shot under 30% in each, making just six and five treys respectively. To earn a road win here, they have the skill behind Donte Powers to knock down treys. This makes to be a splendid WAC opener. The Wolverines are perfect at home this year, but only hosted two D1s (Long Beach State and NAU).
1. Florida Atlantic at North Texas, Sunday, 2PM ET, ESPN2
Apparently, I surprised some folks at The Field of 68 when I had the Owls as my fourth-ranked team in the preseason for the Mid Major Poll ballot. Turns out, I was lowballing the Owls! FAU has been an absolute juggernaut through seven weeks of the season. If not for a Michael Forrest injury ahead of the Ole Miss loss, this squad could realistically be a 12-0 team. As it stands, Florida Atlantic sits at 11-1 with that loss and a key win at Florida. Today they are second in the poll and pushing Charleston for #1. The Owls also own a CUSA league win over local rival FIU. Now the meat of the schedule has arrived as we approach the new year. A trip to Denton to take on the brilliant Grant McCasland, Mr. Sensational – Tylor Perry, and the defending Regular Season champions of North Texas followed by a visit next week from UAB. UNT got off to a slow start by missing Perry from the lineup for the trip to Saint Mary’s, which went poorly. Since his return, the Mean Green are playing a lot more like their usual selves. A blemish in the championship game against UNCW is the only thing holding UNT from being perfect since the SMC debacle. Perry has earned “Game MVP via KenPom” in five different wins including key wins against GCU in Phoenix and UMass in Massachusetts. In the CUSA opener, Abou Ousmane took center stage as UNT obliterated UTSA in the closing ten minutes to walk away from San Antonio with a 78-54 triumph. Ousmane 15 made field goals! All from two-point range, as the Roadrunners couldn’t handle his 6-10, 230-pound frame and skill combo.
The matchup with FAU will be different. The Owls are playing a Top 50 caliber of Hoop both offensively and defensively. UNT will of course put the clamps on a lot of what the Owls want to do in the no-middle defensive scheme under McCasland. Mean Green would love a grinder and likely will achieve that. It’s been almost a full year since UAB came into Denton and left with a win. In that game the Blazers only launch ten treys and made half, they relied heavily on a two-point attack (which is most welcomed to dribble-penetrating programs like UAB and FAU). I’m guessing the Owls watched that tape ahead of this blockbuster matchup. The Owls’ win at Florida was a crazy string of runs and an eventual hang-on-for-dear-life finish for FAU. Tonight will likely need to be a deliberate tone-setting and consistent possession-by-possession effort if the Owls plan to end the 11-game home win streak of UNT (excludes NIT loss to UVA last year).
Enjoy the action this week everyone!
~Rocco Miller