By Rocco Miller
The master plan for college athletics may be drifting away from a rock-solid basketball league like the Mountain West, but the bedrock of this league will not go away. Recent realignment announcements will forever leave its mark on what has been a consistently high-producing conference that sent an astronomical six teams dancing a year ago. With two short seasons left to appreciate this group of 11 programs, let’s enjoy what we have before it ends.
The belle of the ball - San Diego State - has been to two straight Sweet Sixteens now and rarely if ever loses a home game. The Aztecs are creating a lifetime’s worth of what-ifs over the past couple of years, in which both runs ended at the hands of a historically superior UConn team. The Aztecs will have a ton of retooling to do (more on that in a bit) in 2025. But the standard is the standard at SDSU - which exudes defensive suffocation to opposing offenses and raucous home crowds.
The MWC in 2024-25 appears to be wide open. My spring started with quality time spent with the staff at Boise State. They were ectactic at first about the way things were shaping up, and some talk of Darkhorse Final Four contenders. They were looking at bringing the big three back of Tyson Degenhart, O’Mar Stanley, and Chibuzo Agbo. The roster looked good to me as well, and the idea began to grow in my mind. Weeks later, Agbo, surprisingly to Boise, hit the portal and quickly landed at USC. Leaving Boise State with a hit on strength and continuity. Out in Albuquerque, a young phenom big in JT Toppin hit the portal, and landed in the Big 12. The league as a whole has a lot to replace and needs to establish continuity quickly to optimize bids. The six-bid perfect storm of 2023-24 is almost assuredly not going to be possible.
Opportunity lies right in front of the six or seven breadwinners in this league to get an MWC trophy. Non-conference opportunities are there for all, and once again these top-tier programs have stacked themselves with enough opportunities to gain some wins. If you are curious, see our Mountain West schedule page. Nevada will have a great opportunity to continue building on success under Steve Alford, who outcoached a lot of terrific coaches last season. Utah State and Wyoming introduced exciting new head coaches in Jerrod Calhoun and Sundance Wicks, respectively. Calhoun was able to keep three core Aggies and went portal hunting to help build a high-octane offense. With Calhoun’s scheme, the rest of the MW will need to prep a bit differently for the high-upside Aggies. With Wicks, Laramie promises to be energetic. Wicks brings serious energetic juice! He also can coach effectively. Earning the Wyoming job after a tremendous turnaround in short order at Green Bay.
Colorado State and UNLV will be looking a little different this year, yet still have an opportunity to compete. The Rams are a squad who figures to play more through Nique Clifford and Bowen Born. Born has had a prolific career at Northern Iowa when healthy. The Rebels got a major win when retaining Dedan Thomas, Jr. following his MWC Freshman of the Year campaign a season ago. The portal vultures were out in full force for his services. Down in New Mexico, a burgeoning superstar in Donovan Dent is back to try and take New Mexico to back-to-back NCAA Tournaments for the first time in over a decade. Out West, it’s a potentially recharged San Jose State squad looking to leap back into the top five of the conference. The key for Tim Miles’ group is a healthy Robert Vaihola. Vaihola at full strength two years ago, was an absolute joy to watch. He does a ton of little things to help the Spartans win around the rim and plays intelligently. Vaihola was set to set sail before a brutal leg injury occurred just before the season opener a year ago. Coach Miles brought in some very capable transfers and Adrame Diongue is going to continue maturing as a major rim protector.
Fresno State welcomes in local legend Vance Walburg to lead the Bulldogs into the future. Walburg has had a long career in coaching and was hired to bring a strong connection to the Valley. He was ultra-successful locally at Clovis West High School and earlier in life at Fresno City College. His ridiculous 133-11 dominant record coaching Fresno City College led him to the Pepperdine job in 2006-07. It did not last long as Walburg was dealing with personal issues and the death of his mother. This is a redemption project for him. Walburg brings in some JUCO superstars to shake up the MWC this season. The roster appears to be highly offensive-based. When in the NBA, Walburg coached under George Karl for two NBA teams, so you may see some similarities in those great Coach Karl schemes.
Air Force will have a top team in the country in terms of returning minutes and players. Ethan Taylor is sticking with the program and has all-league-level talent. Joe Scott’s Falcons will look to shake up the league standings, per usual, with a terrific home-court advantage at altitude in Colorado Springs. The portal took away key players Rytis Petraitis and Kellan Boylan, which will likely limit the Falcons, however.
ORDER OF FINISH - PREDICTIONS
Boise State (MWC Reg Season Champs) - Degenhart and Stanley have unfinished business. The Broncos swept San Diego State and won tough road games at Nevada and New Mexico. BSU was the only visiting team from the MWC to win at SDSU last season. This group brings in really important pieces with Alvaro Cardenas to run the point guard spot and a talented 7-footer in Arizona transfer, Dylan Anderson. I think the pieces fit very well for BSU to navigate this changing league with confidence, despite the loss of Agbo.
San Diego State (MWC Tournament Champs) - Aztecs have to retool its offensive priorities, but the defense isn’t going anywhere and neither is Viejas Arena. The defense allows SDSU to pull off crucial road wins in tough environments annually, this year won’t be different. You may see some struggles in non-conference play, especially considering the stiff tests the Aztecs will face, but this is a conference standings-only prediction.
Nevada (At-Large Bid) - The Wolfpack are going to have to tweak its offensive strategy without the shifty-smooth Jared Lucas around Reno any longer, but I believe running more offense through the interior and an improving defensive model, will be enough to help the league earn a third bid to the tournament. Nick Davidson had a cluster of breakout games last season and will be a great leader this year, also some strong shooting should still be in store with the returns of Tre Coleman, Daniel Foster, Tyler Robison, and the key sniper addition of MWC-lifer Xavier Dussell.
New Mexico - Easy to make a case for the Lobos to win either trophy this season, as many of my peers have done. I believe this team will be quality. Early chances with UCLA and St. John’s would do wonders for its at-large resume and the MWC getting more than three bids. The shooting of Dent and impact newcomer C.J. Noland is solid, but no major threats after that from deep. The interior is full of length and experience, led by Nelly Junior Joseph. But I do believe the loss of House, Toppin, and Mashburn leaves the Lobos with a bit less weaponry. And that is a team that the NCAA (unfairly) was prepared to not select last year if the Lobos did not win all of the MWC marbles in Vegas.
Utah State - If I had a way to make an arrow going straight up next to the name, I would. USU landed Jerrod Calhoun, who took Youngstown State from the basement to the top of the Horizon League with his wonderfully orchestrated offensive system. The offense delivers consistent open looks and YSU was able to leverage personnel in a way that got them a high-rate of interior easy buckets. Perhaps most impressively, YSU had the top defense in Horizon League play last year, after being 9th in the league defensively two years prior. This staff is blossoming in many ways and it brings a heavy analytical approach to the MWC. Outside of those fun facts, Mason Falslev, Isaac Johnson, and the ageless Ian Martinez all decided to stay! This team will be a lot of fun.
Colorado State - Ram nation has had seven months to contemplate what life without Isaiah Stevens will be like. Perhaps it won’t sink in until the Rams opener for many. The reality is, the show must go on. The wonderful news is Niko Medved is tremendous and is still in Fort Collins. Riding in on last year’s tournament win, another program milestone. Bowen Born and Keshawn Williams are in to fill most of the Stevens void. Born, when healthy, is as steady of a hand as you’ll find, rarely turning the ball over. If it all comes together, CSU will be back near the top competing for the trophy.
UNLV - The Dedan Thomas return is major. Now Kevin Kruger will have to architect the rest of the pieces to maximize Rebel potential. The Rebs also have to work on consistency, the losses to Air Force and Southern at home last season were backbreaking. Jalen Hill’s recovery from an ACL tear should be complete, his progress is key.
San Jose State - Two years ago, SJSU shocked everyone with a fifth-place finish, trip to the MWCT Semifinals, and #97 finish in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings. That was the last time we saw Robert Vaihola. Vaihola was the league’s best 2-point finisher (74%), second-best offensive rebounder, and third-highest offensive-rated player (129.3 ORTG). All of these factors are premium for winning games, his health will determine what SJSU can really do this year. The additions of Donovan Yap, Will McClendon, Sadaidriene Hall, and Josh Uduje all appear to bring upgrades as well.
Wyoming - Sundance Wicks and home games in Laramie is enough to put a few wins on the board immediately. More upside is generated from the effective FG% progress Wicks made at Green Bay. A collection of guards will learn quickly how to effectively play teams off the perimeter and take wise shots on offense. The bigs will learn to keep opponents off the offensive glass. His Green Bay teams thrived in these areas, and it will be interesting to see how much of that foundation carries over.
Fresno State - We spent time covering Walburg above, and its really hard to know what we are getting right away on the court. The league didn't do the Bulldogs a lot of favors by throwing SDSU at them in early December either. Perhaps Amar Augillard is our guy to watch, the JUCO Player of the Year last season averaged nearly 23 points per night at that lever and had decent rebounding and assist numbers.
Air Force - Despite all of the continuity advantages, it is difficult to project this team to be any better than last year. However, the Falcons have been known to sprinkle in some Freshman late to their roster. And they recently added nine new players! Still have no information on who if any will be on the floor. So keep your eye on that.