It’s the first bracket of March, and a 16-day Championship Week is already underway. It was time for a comprehensive look at the bubble today and looking forward.
Very careful analysis and interpretations of what the committee values the most in this very interesting mix of teams and limited data was used to decipher who belongs in and out for today. As you’ll notice, many team comparisons are ridiculously difficult. The main catergories below are common for trying to get a grasp on the entire selection and seeding process. In addition, I’ve added an extra column for Quad 2A results. For those unaware, last year the actual NCAA Team Sheets were revised to split Quad 1 and Quad 2 evenly in half. This allows committee members to break up the results into a deeper understanding. As we get into bubble territory, I have found the 2A column to be pretty useful. Another key area is wins against the field, you’ll see that in the first column prior to the listed wins against the field. Here is the full breakdown and how I ranked the teams for now:
Some quick thoughts on what’s needed for each Bubble Team:
Rutgers - Win at Minnesota or win opening B1G Tournament game and in. Lose both and probably out, would be 13-12 overall.
Loyola-Chicago: Mostly safe. Worst case scenario is lose opener on Friday to Southern Illinois (currrently 218 NET) or Bradley (149 NET). A loss to SIU would put them under the microscope I believe.
North Carolina: Hosting Duke then off to the ACC Tournament. A home loss to Duke likely would send UNC to the 8-9 game of the ACC against Syracuse or NC State. So potentially another non-tourney loss, but not a disasterous loss. Of this list UNC seems to be most safe due to their remaining schedule, but never can be sure with bid steals potentially out there.
VCU: Conference tournament this weekend vs. Rhode Island or Dayton. VCU likely needs to get this first win to breathe easier. Opportunity does exist for a non-conference game should the Rams exit early. One win should be enough, unless they lost to a cinderella team in the following round.
UConn: This Huskies team has proven with little doubt that they are much different and better with a healthy James Bouknight. He is healthy, and they are in now. It’s not a get out of jail free card though. Huskies head to Seton Hall tomorrow and a tricky finale on Saturday vs. streaking Georgetown. Going to need to at least take care of the home win this week.
St. Bonaventure: Bonnies put themselves at more risk by losing last night vs. Dayton at home. The A10 draw gives them either Richmond or Duquesne. Duquesne has a NET of 139 today, so a loss to the Dukes would add a second Q3 loss. In that scenario, Bonnies are likely to explore non-conference options before Selection Sunday. A trip to the semifinals however, should have SBU in good shape.
Georgia Tech: This is where the bubble gets extreme. Yellow Jackets are barely in, make no mistake about it. But my belief is once they’ve been selected, they deserve to be a bit higher on the board due to the quality of wins they’ve collected. Big one tonight with Duke, and a sneaky road test at Wake Forest this weekend. The formula is simple sweep this week or they need probably a semifinal run in the ACC’s (depending on bracket).
Boise State: Broncos have one game left vs. Fresno State tonight. A win is needed there. Then the Broncos enter the Mountain West Tournament looking to avoid a bad loss (anyone besides the top three) and can likely lock up a bid with a run to the tournament final.
Michigan State: Similar to Georgia Tech, the Spartans are looking to get selected and then likely to move above the cut-off line by a few slots at least, due to their impressive wins. Here’s the kicker, Spartans host Indiana tonight then get two cracks at Michigan later this week. This provides a tremendous opportunity for MSU to be safe with a split vs. Michigan. The overall big concerns today are the NET and SOS, but one win over Michigan could alieviate any concern - especially a win in Ann Arbor.
Xavier - I am a little less impressed with Xavier than most. The committee repeatedly states, who did you play? Where did you play them? How did you do? The problem for the Musketeers is a lack of evidence away from the Cintas Center and their middling predictive metrics. Two road wins at Georgetown and Marquette would help quite a bit, and for insurance - a Big East Tournament win.
Drake - The Bulldogs need to get to the final of the MVC Tournament and play Loyola-Chicago. If so, they should be in. If they miss the final, or lose in the final against another Valley program - it spells very nervous times on Selection Sunday. Let’s hope Drake can get Tank Hemphill back and mostly healthy this weekend.
Colorado State - CSU has New Mexico and at Nevada still this week. The road test at Nevada is particularly dangerous, but also an opportunity to reinforce their resume strength. In the MWC Tournament, a semifinal appearance at minimum is likely required. CSU may still need to win it all in Vegas though, if multiple bid steals happen across the country.
Wichita State - Current AAC leader and in the projected field. Could get an at-large by winning until the AAC final and losing to Houston. If the Shockers lost to anyone else, it would have to be SMU or Memphis to stay in the discussion. For now, tomorrow’s game with Tulane is an obvious must win.
Seton Hall - Pirates have a nice quintet of road wins over top two quadrants, but they also possess three negative results as shown in the “2B losses or worse” column. The Pirates can play their way in. A big home game on Senior Night tomorrow vs. UConn and a local road game at St. John’s this weekend. Decent chance that Seton Hall could meet Xavier in the four vs. five game at the Big East Tournament (current standings has this), if so could be for a bid. Let’s see how it plays out.
Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers continue to hold on to their neutral court win over Alabama like gold. The Tops host ODU twice this weekend, need a sweep. A run to the CUSA final and losing to Marshall/UNT/LA Tech would keep them in the hunt for at-large. For now, still the projected CUSA champion.
Utah State - USU’s sweep over Nevada got them closer to the cut-line. Unfortunately, the games with Wyoming and Fresno State this week do not provide much opportunity. Need to win both and hope for help. USU’s performance at the MWC Tournament may also require a run to the finals.
Duke - Blue Devils are still in control of their at-large destiny. Two opportunities on the road this week at Georgia Tech and at UNC. Both are near the bubble themselves, so Duke either needs both wins or a split then a run at the ACC tounrament - semifinals or further sounds right.
Saint Louis - The Billekins were crushed by shutdowns and unfortunately only played five road games, winning only at Fordham. Not good. SLU will be looking to make up for this on neutral courts in Richmond during the A10 Tournament. A run to the title is necessary for at-large consideration or perhaps a non-conference ROAD win. Perhaps at Drake, should they lose this weekend? Madness.
Winthrop - To save a few headaches, lets hope the Eagles win two more and get the Big South Auto bid. If not, they would finish with two losses. That will warrant a committee room discussion at minimum. Therefore, we are keeping them on the at-large radar for now.
Stanford - Behind the eight-ball badly now. But the good news is a road win at USC would help considerably on Saturday. Without that, the Cardinal likely have to win the Pac-12 tournament or make the Championship Game.
Indiana - Hoosiers are 12-12. This is simple math, somehow they need to land two games over .500. So a win at Michigan State and at Purdue this weekend is essential. Then at least one win at the B1G Tournament to land at 15-13? Crazier things have happened. And even a split this week means they need two wins at minimum next week, so an additional option. Don’t get it twisted though, things are pretty bleak.
Ole Miss - Rebels have a poor 8-10 record vs. the top three quadrants. Absolutely must sweep Kentucky and Vandy this week. Then likely need a win over a team in the projected field in the SEC Tournament to feel close.
St. John’s - Johnnies are also in must-win mode. Providence and Seton Hall visit this week. A sweep there, gets their quadrant records in a bit better shape. Cannot take back the home loss to DePaul though. Another win over the field is likely required in the Big East Tournament. Anything can happen in the Garden.
SMU - Mustangs have lost nine games to cancellations. They will be a real interesting case study on what the committee does, assuming the don’t win the auto-bid. The Mustangs are scheduled to finally get a home game in this Sunday vs. Tulsa. It would be their first game in a month. They’ll need to win, and then its off to the AAC Tournament. SMU overall has decent metrics, and I feel the committee may be compelled to make them an “alternate team” should they not win the AAC.
Minnesota - Only one path left: must win at Penn State (Gophers are 0-9 on road). Must beat Rutgers in finale. Hard to see this happening though with the way the Gophers have played of late. Another win or two would likely be needed at the B1G Tournament as well.
Memphis - The Tigers don’t have many wins besides Wichita State to point at. The Tigers do get a massive opportunity at Houston on Sunday, so we leave them in the at-large discussion based on that.
Providence - Has the nice road wins, and four wins over the field. You’ll see that stands out here. Just simply too much losing has outweighed the success. This week another crack at Villanova comes and tomorrow a road chance at St. John’s. Win both and things get interesting again.
Syracuse - The Orange are only 2-7 away from the Carrier Dome, and that’s about all you need to know. Nothing above the NC State road win, which won’t cut it. This week a home finale with Clemson is left, which would add a third win over the field if the Orange can win. But I still think the Orange need a deep ACC Tournament run to have a legitimate at-large chance based on their lack of calories on the road this season.
Davidson - Essentially need to win the A-10 Tournament. Only VCU exists thats in the field, can’t play them til the Semi’s and thats still not enough for at-large.
With all of that above, you will see the Bubble teams represented in the “In, Not By Much” and “Knocking on the Door” columns. Here is the rest of the Big Board following Baylor’s thrilling win at West Virginia. New Bracket and updated board also coming tomorrow.
SEED LIST 1-68
