BIG BOARD is reflected in today’s bracket prediction:
Inside the Bracket
Big Board 02.28.20 and Weekend Bracket Games
BIG BOARD is reflected in today’s bracket prediction:
Top Half of Bracket Impact Games:
5. San Diego State at Nevada
4. Penn State at Iowa
3. Duke at Virginia
2. Michigan State at Maryland
1. Auburn at Kentucky
Bubble Movement Games:
5. Colorado at Stanford, Sun.
4. Saint Louis at Rhode Island, Sun.
3. Wichita State at SMU, Sun.
2. Oklahoma at West Virginia
1. Arizona at UCLA
Conference Leader Games:
5. Eastern Washington at Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
4. Cincinnati at Houston (AAC), Sun.
3. Wright State at Northern Kentucky (Horizon), Fri.
2. Western Kentucky at North Texas (CUSA), Sun.
1. Seton Hall at Marquette (Big East)
Weekday Bracket Games + Big Board 02.25.20
Highlighted Bracket Games
For upcoming games between February 25-27.
Top Half of Bracket Impact Games:
5. Maryland at Minnesota, Weds.
4. Kentucky at Texas A&M, Tues.
3. Iowa at Michigan State, Tues.
2. LSU at Florida, Weds.
1. Wisconsin at Michigan, Thurs.
Bubble Movement Games:
5. Indiana at Purdue, Thur.
4. Memphis at SMU, Tues.
3. Arizona at USC, Thurs.
2. Rutgers at Penn State, Weds. (RU desperately needs a road win)
1. Texas Tech at Oklahoma in OKC, Tues.
Conference Leader Games:
5. North Texas at FIU (CUSA), Thurs.
4. Montana at Northern Arizona (Big Sky), Thurs.
3. South Dakota State at North Dakota State (Summit), Thurs.
2. Akron at Bowling Green (MAC), Tues.
1. Arizona State at UCLA (Pac-12), Thurs.
BIG BOARD:
Big Board 02.24.20
For the Top 31 teams on the Seed List, I thought sharing this illustration will help further explain my projections. The highlighted areas are glaring holes in the resume for select teams. Please note, some of the records are subject to change based on the new NET rankings that was released this morning. The majority of this exercise was done yesterday.
Breakdown of today’s Seed List.
A similar breakdown was done for the next 25 or so teams that make up the bubble. We will save that breakdown for a future post as we approach Selection Sunday.
BIG BOARD: used to build today’s bracket
Big Board 02.22.20 + Highlighted Bracket Games
BIG BOARD
Highlighted Bracket Games
For upcoming games between February 22-23.
Heavyweight Games:
5. Florida State at NC State
4. Butler at Creighton, Sunday
3. Maryland at Ohio State
2. Gonzaga at BYU
1. Kansas at Baylor
Bubble Movement Games:
5. Georgetown at DePaul
4. Penn State at Indiana, Sunday
3. USC at Utah, Sunday
2. Marquette at Providence
1. Wichita State at Cincinnati, Sunday
Conference Leader Games:
5. Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa (MVC)
4. South Dakota at South Dakota State, Sunday (Summit)
3. Louisiana Tech at North Texas (CUSA)
2. Houston at Memphis (AAC)
1. Oregon at Arizona (Pac-12)
Weekday Bracket Games + NEW Big Board
Highlighted Bracket Games
For upcoming games between February 18-20.
Heavyweight Games:
5. Oregon at Arizona State, Thurs.
4. Creighton at Marquette, Tues.
3. Dayton at VCU, Tues.
2. Baylor at Oklahoma, Tues.
1. Butler at Seton Hall, Weds.
Bubble Movement Games:
5. South Carolina at Mississippi State, Weds.
4. Providence at Georgetown, Weds.
3. Arkansas at Florida, Tues.
2. Indiana at Minnesota, Weds.
1. Duke at NC State, Weds.
Conference Leader Games:
5. Robert Morris at St. Francis-PA (NEC), Tues.
4. Northern Iowa at Indiana State (MVC), Thurs.
3. Vermont at Stony Brook (America East), Thurs.
2. Kentucky at LSU (SEC), Tues.
1. Furman at ETSU (SoCon), Weds. - Follow along live at Bracketeer.org!
BIG BOARD: used to build today’s bracket
Big Board 02.11.20 + Weekday Bracket Games
BIG BOARD: used to build today’s bracket
Highlighted Bracket Games
For upcoming games between February 11-13.
Heavyweight Games:
5. Michigan State at Illinois, Tues.
4. Marquette at Villanova, Weds.
3. Penn State at Purdue, Tues.
2. Creighton at Seton Hall, Weds.
1. Kansas at West Virginia, Weds.
Bubble Movement Games:
5. Notre Dame at Virginia, Tues.
4. Arkansas at Tennessee, Tues.
3. Memphis at Cincinnati, Thurs.
2. Mississippi State at Ole Miss, Tues.
1. Arizona State at Stanford, Thurs.
Projected Auto-Bid Games:
5. Bowling Green at Akron (MAC), Tues.
4. Murray State at Austin Peay (OVC), Thurs.
3. Charleston at Hofstra (CAA), Thurs.
2. Rhode Island at Dayton (A-10), Tues.
1. Colorado at Oregon (Pac-12), Thurs.
Big Board 02.08.20 + Games of the Weekend
This BIG BOARD that was used to build today’s bracket
For upcoming games between February 8-9.
Games to Watch for the Heavyweights:
5. Kansas at TCU
4. Virginia at Louisville
3. Duke at North Carolina
2. Seton Hall at Villanova
1. Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s
Games to Watch for Bubble movement:
5. Providence at Xavier
4. USC at Arizona State
3. Minnesota at Penn State
2. Stanford at Colorado
1. Purdue at Indiana
Games to Watch for Conference Leadership:
5. Saint Louis at Dayton (A-10)
4. Furman at Western Carolina (SoCon)
3. UC Irvine at UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
2. Cincinnati at UConn, Sunday (AAC)
1. LSU at Auburn (SEC)
Big Board 02.03.20
BIG BOARD that was used to build today’s bracket
Updated thru all games of 2/2/20
Bracketology Big Board 01.25.20
The Weekend Update is here. Just in time for 143 D-I games on Saturday and another 19 on Sunday.
Check back here on Monday for a full bracket breakdown.
BiG BOARD Prior to Games on January 25th
Bracketology Big Board 01.20.20 + What to Watch This Week
The Bracketology Big Board reflects today’s bracket:
For upcoming games between January 21-23.
Games to Watch at the Top of the Food Chain:
5. Creighton at DePaul (Weds)
4. Florida at LSU (Thurs)
3. Rutgers at Iowa (Weds)
2. Butler at Villanova (Weds)
1. Michigan State at Indiana (Thurs)
Games to Watch for Bubble movement:
5. San Francisco at Saint Mary’s (Thurs)
4. Washington at Utah (Thurs)
3. Minnesota at Ohio State (Thurs)
2. BYU at Pacific (Thurs)
1. Georgetown at Xavier (Weds)
Games to Watch for Conference Leadership:
5. Western Kentucky at Marshall (Weds)
4. Belmont at Murray State (Thurs)
3. Memphis at Tulsa (Weds)
2. North Dakota St. at South Dakota St. (Weds)
1. Liberty at North Florida (Thurs)
Bracketology Big Board 01.18.20
The Bracketology Big Board reflects today’s bracket:
BIG BOARD
Games to Watch at the Top of the Food Chain:
5. Baylor at Oklahoma State
4. BYU at Gonzaga
3. Kansas at Texas
2. Louisville at Duke
1. Butler at DePaul
Games to Watch for Bubble movement:
5. Indiana at Nebraska, IU team plane did not leave until this morning.
4. Utah at Arizona State
3. Minnesota at Rutgers, Sunday
2. Syracuse at Virginia Tech
1. Marquette at Georgetown
Games to Watch for Conference Leadership:
5. New Mexico State at Seattle U.
4. East Tennessee State at Western Carolina
3. Stanford at USC
2. Northern Iowa at Bradley
1. Houston at Wichita State
Bracketology Big Board 01.14.20
Today’s Big Board reflects today’s bracket:
BIG BOARD
Bracketology Big Board January 9th, 2020
1 Seed Contenders
To me it is clear that Kansas and Duke are worthy of the top two spots. But from there, it gets interesting between Baylor, SDSU, Gonzaga, and Butler. With Baylor’s victory in Lubbock over Texas Tech earlier this week, it is enough to convince me that they belong. Only one team won in Lubbock last season (Iowa State), clearly a very hard thing to accomplish. For the fourth #1 seed I am going with Gonzaga reluctantly. The Zags have showed weakness lately and the win over UNC continues to lose value and their lone loss to Michigan (by 18) contunues to look less elite. You could make a really strong argument for San Diego State here, and I am higher than most on the Aztec body of work.
2nd Tier
Smaller group of squads fit this criteria to date. The Auburn Tigers may be undefeated. but their schedule hasn’t afforded them any elite win opportunites at this point. Not to worry Tiger fans, those elite opportunities are coming. The Florida State Seminoles aren’t getting the love in the rankings yet, but they are building an excellent resume with wins at Louisville, at Florida, at Wake, neutral wins over Purdue and Tennessee. Hard to find resumes this early in the season with that many quality wins away from home, especially for a power conference team.
3rd Tier
Unlike the 2nd Tier, this list continues to grow. Seton Hall has really made a jump back up recently and is sitting comfortably in this tier today. Some may question Memphis here, but I am keeping them for the time being, as my preseason expectations were high. One more rough loss for the Tigers and they will tumble, they have a resume built more on sand than concrete.
In Safely
I like these five squads to be safely in. In Safely essentially means they have done enough resume-wise to not be at risk of taking a bad loss and being completely out of the field. Teams like BYU here out of the WCC will have additional chances at bad losses, so pay attention to that closely.
In, But Not By Much
If you enjoy long lists, this group is for you! This view serves as a nice visual of how many teams are that close to being out in the event of a bad night, especially if it happens against a bad team. The last two selections (Utah and ETSU) were very tough. I am impressed just enough with Utah’s body of work to justify selection, and ETSU barely edges out Xavier with their impressive five road wins including last night’s win over UNC-Greensboro.
BIG BOARD
Bracketology Big Board 12.06.19
Have you ever heard of way too early Bracketology? It’s real. The College Basketball universe cannot live without Bracketology in today’s landscape of technology. Even Joe Lunardi is putting out new brackets before December. Crazy, right? I have always been a firm believer as a Bracketologist, that you need to get moderately into January to have enough necessary data to evaluate any given tournament resume. So what, you say? Just give me a bracket! How bout this..I’ll compromise with you and give you the full picture, but no brackets yet!
On a near daily basis I am updating the Bracketology Big Board. The earlier in the season we are, the more teams that are in the mix for an At-Large bid. We still have tons of teams alive! The reason is because many teams have not even sniffed the meat of their schedules at this point. However, several other teams have played quality games to date, such as Florida State or San Diego State. A subset of teams give us decent data today to make projections and the rest of the teams, simply do not.. So my compromise with you is to share my up to date Big Board. Think of the well-known Todd McShay Big Board for the NFL Draft. Except we are still four months and change until Draft Day, aka Selection Sunday.
The teams below were grouped into columns based on both results and efficiency. Then their bodies of work to date and overall team outlook were compared against one another within each column.,
BIG BOARD
Seeds 1-68 represent the projected NCAA Tournament Seed List.
2019-20 Preseason Seed List
The Top Seeds (1-4)
Kansas, yes Kansas, is the projected #1 Overall Seed in this year’s bracket. Kansas has an embarassment of riches talent-wise and are projected to win the toughest league and have a strong non-conference slate. Disclaimer: Going back through the past five years of seeding, only one B1G team has received a #1 seed and that was Wisconsin in 2015 (#4 on the seed list that season). The ACC has had a #1 seed every year during that span including THREE top seeds last season. That trend continues here for the #2 overall team, UNC. Michigan State, the team largely picked first in all polls, comes in as the third #1 seed. The Florida Gators are also the 1-Line as the fourth overall team. Florida has an incredible roster in place and should dominate many of their games. However, Kentucky is picked to win the SEC Auto-Bid.
Rest of Protected Seed Summary (Teams 5-16)
Kentucky, Duke, and Gonzaga have very strong arguments to be a preseason #1 seed and they fall here for initial projections. In the next tier, I really like what I’m seeing early from Ohio State. The Buckeyes have climbed this board consistently all offseason and landed at 10 to start the season. I see Texas Tech as being pretty strong by March but may have a few struggles earlier as they break in 11 newcomers. Fortunately they do not have a strong schedule and should have just enough juice to be a protected seed. Similarly, I see Oregon getting stronger as the season goes on. They figure to get N’Faly Dante back in mid-December and may not hit their full potential until January or February.
Middle of the Field (Teams 17-40)
Purdue and Florida State look to be right in the mix for protected seeds, I have them falling just shy. In the next tier, a lot more guesswork is happening. I think Baylor and Seton Hall have a little more risk to them this season than many are giving credit to, but both are still clear tournament teams. Houston and Ole Miss are two clubs that I’m very high on compared to the national consensus. Ole Miss has two dynamite guards in Tyree and Shuler, plus have a talented supporting cast. Houston got a nice boost with the news that Quinten Grimes was immediately eligible and I see them winning the AAC Tourney which moves to the state of Texas this year. Washington and Arizona also got boosts with recent waiver decisions for former Kentucky players Quade Green (UW) and Jemarl Baker (AZ). Those two squads can feel more comfortable for now in the “In Safely” column. Creighton was a team that recently dropped to #39 overall. They had been much higher prior to the recent injuries to Epperson and Mintz. Wishing them a speedy recovery. Wichita State is a team who ended last year on a high note and gained valuable experience, I have a good inkling about the Shockers this season.
Bubble Trouble (41-46, and Knocking on the Door)
Utah State has slipped down into the First Four with the recent news of Neemias Queta being out, potentially for a while. USU will need to build their resume during these next eight weeks and need all of their stars available. I am calling for New Mexico to steal the MWC Auto-bid, since the Lobos will not be At-Large worthy. I struggled for many days between Georgetown and Michigan as the final team in the field. I think Georgetown has slightly more chemistry with Ewing, but I like Michigan’s schedule more. So I’ll take Georgetown for now. Will be interesting to look back at this in five months. Missouri and TCU have really climbed the board based on some deeper research and for the Frogs beating both Mississippi State and Washington in Scrimmage play.
The Rest (49-68)
If you saw the Part 1 of the Bracket Preview , you will understand how these picks were made. In general, I think teams from ETSU all the way through Colgate on this list have a shot at advancing and maybe even to the second weekend. My personal hope is that we see some of these teams overachieve in non-conference play so we can flirt with more potential bid theives in March and get more wide-spread participation in the NCAA Tournament.
SEED LIST 1-68
2019 Preseason Bracket Preview: Breakdown of the Multi-Bid Leagues
Home of the 2020 Final Four: Atlanta, GA
Not long ago, doing a Preseason Bracket was a cool idea, but never a must. Why try to predict something that is primarily based on performance when there are no qualified performances to date? The answer today is easier: The College Basketball community loves preseason content and team comparisons. How does my team stack up nationally? Where would we potentially travel to in March? What’s our seed? The list goes on..
With the endless amount of data available and schedule analyzing that I’ve done, it has now become more of a comprehensive exercise. Putting this together really prepares me for the season, so this has become an overall rewarding effort. In addition, the bracketing exercise itself is a valuable exercise (about 5-7 hours in length per bracket) any time of year. Looking for repeat matchups, following bracketing rules, what happens if BYU makes it and can’t play on Sundays, etc. The popularity of Bracketology increases each year and there is a lot to explore, review, and consider.
Why do these Ten leagues get so many At-large Bids these days?
Part Two of the bracket preview brings us to the Multi-Bid conferences. With the power of TV Contracts and Coaching Salaries, the very large majority of control in College Basketball resides within these ten leagues. That also translates to a lot of bids. In 2019, 35 of 36 At-Large Bids came from these ten conferences. The exception was Belmont, who had a fantastic resume but barely squeezed into the First Four. The inherit advantages for the ten leagues at the top of College Basketball is simple: more opportunities. Until the committee decides to not consider quality wins more important than a quality record, then the built-in advantage for power leagues will always be protected. The NCAA Tournament revenue model provides distribution per conference. For each tournament game in which a conference member participates, that equals one share for the conference. The more shares for the conference, the more the league will be able to reallocate to their conference members. These ten leagues today are steadfast at sending as many members to the NCAA Tournament as possible, motivated not only by success but monetarily.
Breakdown
Let’s get into these teams who are fighting to get to the dance and eventually Atlanta in April. After spending months reading, listening, and tracking personnel changes, I’ve put my best guesses for this season together. You will notice that some leagues have a different league champion than the projected Auto-Bid winner. This was done by design, as it is realistic to see this in at least a couple of conferences. With the Pac-12 and AAC appearing to be stronger this season, I am projecting four bids from each league. SEC is leading the way here with seven bids. And things are balanced between the Big XII, ACC, and Big Ten – six bids a piece. In the A-10, I am calling for Davidson to steal a bid and VCU/Dayton earn at-large slots. St. Mary’s out of the WCC, joins Utah State out of the MWC as at-large selections as well. Gonzaga and New Mexico are my picks to win the Auto-Bids. All in all, I am forecasting all 36 At-Large bids going to these ten leagues. Hopefully I am wrong and we see a few go to the other 22, but this is our starting point.
Without further ado, here is how I see the power conferences shaking out this year. We can all get a good chuckle at this come April:
Look for our complete Bracket posted later today and 1 thru 68 Seed List. Happy Hoops season!
2019 Preseason Bracket Preview: Projecting the One-Bid Leagues
Bracketology. Here we are for another ride. Year #9 for me publically breaking down brackets and working for those elusive answers from Selection Committee members. The fun of thinking through endless scenarios within the infrastructure of unbalanced College Basketball scheduling began many months ago. Now it is time to reveal these thoughts.
We begin the 2020 campaign by looking at the projected one-bid leagues. One-Bid leagues are quite possibly my favorite and most frustrating part of doing Bracket work. I believe these leagues are not only intriguing to follow but in many cases overlooked by the committee when it comes to seeding. It is hard to imagine many or any debates between teams like Colgate, Gardner-Webb, and Bradley getting a 14 or a 15 seed in the committee room for example, but that is actually a pretty big deal for those leagues and the schools itself (it also can ding guys like me on Bracket Matrix scoring). The scales have been also tipped in more recent seasons for these leagues to not be able to schedule many or any opportunities for quality wins and it is increasingly more and more difficult to send more than one team to the dance from these 22 conferences specifically. Last season we saw breakthroughs with Buffalo, Wofford, Belmont all being inside the bubble and providing a two-bid opportunity for the MAC, SoCon, and OVC respectively. Only the OVC capitalized with Murray State winning the Auto Bid. We can only hope to find three leagues in this position in 2019-20. But it is really hard to predict where they will come from.
Many of my peer bracketologists will look at these leagues very quickly, and assume “okay this team is picked first” or “this team is currently in first” and just plug them into the bracket accordingly. Admittedly, once we get into conference play I do change my projections to reflect the league champion in each league based on who has the inside track to the Conference Tournament #1 seed. It also works as an agent to recognize more programs throughout the season instead of just plugging in the same team every new bracket post.
For preseason purposes however, I believe it is more effective and thoughtful to predict both outcomes: The Regular Season Conference Champion and the Conference Tournament Champion. Not all tournaments are created equal, FAR from it. Some are on campus, some are in neutral locations and the bracket format varies tremendously from league to league. For these reasons, I have two sets of predictions and the Auto Bid winners will be applied to my upcoming Preseason Bracket. For extra fun, I’ve also added a Darkhorse team to track this year and Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year picks for each conference.
One-Bid League Predictions:
FINAL SEED LIST - Selection Sunday 03.17.19
Bubble Breakdown and Seed List 03.11.19
Today’s bubble took some very careful analysis and interpretations of what the committee values the most in this very interesting mix of teams. Some of them, as you can tell, are very difficult to compare. The catergories below are common for trying to get a grasp on the entire selection and seeding process. One key area ommitted is wins against the field. That was done somewhat purposely for today, due to so many non-power conference teams in the mix. Here is the full breakdown and how I ranked the teams for now:
And next, here is the Full Seed List for today. You will see that the above bubble chart kicks off with #36 Washington and goes from there.
