BRACKET NOTES
Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.
- Iowa made the leap from the three-seed line to the two-seed line to replace Oklahoma. Iowa has really performed at a high-level lately and most of the team sheet metrics for the Hawkeyes are tremendous. On paper, I personally prefer West Virginia by the slimist of margins. But the way the committee had Iowa higher than me on Bracket Reveal Saturday, I’m swallowing my pride and placing Iowa as the last two-seed. Keep in mind, if Iowa were to stay hot (they play at Michigan and at Ohio State this week), they could actually be on the one-line very soon. Big “if” though.
- Kansas secured a season sweep over Texas Tech. With no real negatives on the Jayhawks resume, that helps elevate KU above Creighton and Missouri for the final fourth-seed today. Jayhawks were placed in Gonzaga’s region however, which probably isn’t the greatest news.
- Arkansas continues to climb, despite having theiir game postponed on Saturday. The Hogs simply have nothing bad on their resume and the metrics have really swung in their favor lately, ranking in the Top 24 in all listed team sheet metrics (KPI, POM, SOR, BPI, SAG). Just enough juice to put them above a Clemson team still lacking a significant road win. That win at Mizzou is paying big seeding dividends for the Razorbacks right now.
- The 9-thru-11 lines are pretty messy. I also have Oregon mixed in with this bunch, UO is taking the final eight-seed for now. Maryland has the incredibly unbalanced resume, but also posess tremendous wins on the road - the committee likes this, especially for seeding. UCLA and North Carolina certainly have resume flaws in quadrant records, but a further look shows excellent SOR numbers and enough achieved on the road to be slightly above the rest of the pack. This is a razor thin group in general. Loyola-Chicago is a tempting team to move up above the likes of UNC or UCLA, but historically their profile warrants a lower seed due to the mostly empty calories in high-end wins. The 10-seed line provides the Ramblers a balanced projection within the ranges of possibilities, and the good news (if it happens) this is a much higher liklihood for the Ramblers to advance to the second weekend.
- Per usual, the final spots were very difficult to settle on. Trying to simulate a committee debate between Stanford and Minnesota is not simple, for example. Half the room can lean on Stanford’s ridiculous circumstances this season and the work they’ve done away from Maples Pavilion (nearly all of it). The other half of the room can argue about how the Gophers beat Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa (although 0-8 road record). For me it comes down to which team provided more reasons to leave them out? And right now, I think that’s Minnesota. Furthermore, the Gophers would lose out to St. Bonaventure in a similar debate, I believe.
TIEBREAKER MADNESS
Each league is taking their own approach to tiebreakers for their conference tournament seeding. And it’s more messy than many of you care to explore. I don’t blame you. I think I’ve managed to at least get a grip on a few of these and ideally the next couple of weeks will sort out most of the tough ties. The main focus today is on the Atlantic 10. St. Bonaventure and VCU are both 9-3, UMass is 6-2. They have matching win percentages. But the conference will prefer the team with the most games played, which knock UMass out of the running for number-one. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents Which became a ridiculous exercise in itself, I went clear down the A10 standings until finally landing on George Mason (who just beat VCU, but lost to the Bonnie) to determine that the top seed would be the Bonnies today.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
ACC - Florida State
America East - UMBC
Atlantic 10 - St. Bonaventure
MAAC - Monmouth
Summit - South Dakota
Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (AAC, Wichita State)
