BRACKET NOTES
Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.
As I write this today, we are less than 32 hours away from the Selection Show. Can you believe it? In many ways this week has been long. The individual days of Thursday and Friday provided us with over 14 hours each of non-stop critical basketball games. They are long days. However, this week still always amazes me how fast it seems upon reflection. I feel that feeling again today as we are down to just a few semifinals and championship games left. The majority of programs have wrapped up their work for the year. The moral here I think, is to treasure each game of Championship Week - it disappears quickly.
- Virginia and Kansas both had to withdraw from their respective conference tournaments dur to Covid-19 issues. By the end of the day yesterday, both had said they still fully plan to field a team in next week’s NCAA Tournament. The NCAA has two deadlines coming up for such teams. The first is tonight to allow the committee enough notice to withdraw (unlikely to occur now). The next deadline will be on Tuesday at 6PM EST. Should the Jayhawks, Cavs, or any other team collect further positive tests - we would likely see one of the alternate teams taking their place in the bracket. Certainly hoping to see the best tournament possible, so let’s hope KU and UVA are able to field a team and compete.
- In the protected seed area, Oklahoma State vaulted all the way up to the final two-seed today after one of the best performances all season in the sport - handling Baylor by nine on a neutral court. The Cowboys are not a slam dunk yet for a two-seed. They have to play Texas today for the tournament title, a win helps solidify it. Oklahoma State is in competition with Houston and Arkansas who are also still fighting in their tournaments. I believe the committee will make their final call on this tonight, so it is Oklahoma State’s to lose. The final three-seed is difficult. I still prefer West Virginia’s body of work compared to Kansas. The two teams split head-to-head, I like WV’s edge in the quadrant breakdown - I think its favorable. KU’s win over Baylor makes it interesting, but that did lose just a tad of luster with Baylor’s second loss yesterday.
- Colorado beat USC for the third time last night, despite a feverish rally late from the Trojans. CU and USC have comparable resumes, with the Buffs having some outliers for losses. But with three head-to-head wins now, I feel comfortable leaving Colorado above USC until were done tomorrow. Should the Buffs win the Pac-12 Tournament today, there is a good chance they will take the last five-seed. For today, CU/USC are both on the six-line
- Loyola-Chicago continues to benefit in seeding discussions for that seven-seed they so desperately want. The Ramblers may have the largest range of possibilities on Sunday. Resume-wise the committee could slot them down to a 10 or even 11 seed. But the metrics are completely behind the Ramblers in a big way. It is not apples to apples, but Wofford had very strong metrics in 2019 and landed as a seven-seed. In this hour, that’s where I have Loyola.
- The most fascinating story today is the bubble of course. Hopefully you’ve seen my bid thief board updates on Twitter as Championship Week has progressed. Georgetown and Oregon State each have the opportunity to take away bids with a win today. Utah State has the chance to “leave no doubt” with a win today. And in the AAC, both Memphis and Cincinnati are inching closer to stealing a bid. The teams right on the cut-line: Syracuse, Colorado State, Ole Miss and Saint Louis are currently in debates over two spots. Well, all of them could be doomed with those precious last two spots eaten by outsiders like the Hoyas and Beavers. If we remain in the same position, I have CSU penciled into last team in position. I still see the case for Ole Miss and Saint Louis (unique circumstances could warrant first four opportunity).
- I have more work to do in the 13-16 seed area. A lot of new faces emerged and some deeper comparisons are going to be done today. Look for some tweaks potentially by tomorrow.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Big Sky - Eastern Washington
MAAC - Fairfield
MAC - Buffalo
Southland - Abilene Christian
Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly unlikely, annual average is 2.4 per season)
NCAA ALTERNATE TEAMS: Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Boise State, Xavier
NEXT THREE TEAMS OUT: Seton Hall, Memphis, St. John’s
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