Bracketology

Bracketology 02.21.22

College Basketball has gone by at a rapid pace from where I am sitting. Here we are on February 21st and just 20 short days away from Selection Sunday. Fortunately, a ton of crucial games are either scheduled to be played or will inevitably happen in conference tournaments to help us fine tune the Bracket Forecasts just in time to give you the best understanding of what the committee is likely discussing on each part of the bracket.

Keep in mind that the first balloting process will likely conclude prior to Friday, March 11th action. The first ballot selects the top 32 teams in the field regardless of conference championships being concluded or not. Many will be in progress. That kicks off the next set of balloting to see where teams get stacked ranked, selected, and eventually seeded. A lot of the bracket work you see done here on the forecast, is all put together with this in mind. We should be able to draw a line on the Top 32.

This past Saturday, the actual NCAA Selection Committee put together a Bracket Preview Show that included the Top 16 Teams and a Regional preview. Here were the results:

Bracketeer’s forecast was pretty spot on. Duke and Villanova flipped for the final 2-seed and Illinois and Wisconsin flipped between the 3-seed lines and 4-seed lines, when comparing the Committee work to Bracketeer.Org. The Top 16 as a whole was correctly forecasted, which was a positive reassurance that my understanding of the process and presumed priorities of the committee are mostly in line.

REST OF THE SEED SUMMARY

MIDDLE SEEDS

One team that had perhaps the best shot to get into the Top 16, but didnt, is ranked fourth in the NET. That’s the Houston Cougars, who went out and won a road Ovetime game at Wichita State this weekend. With Texas suffering a home loss, Houston now has just enough to be ahead of Texas on the 4-seed line today.

Arkansas continues to build and build its resume. A 10-point home win over Tennessee is the latest big Hogs victory. The quality metrics agree that the Hogs are Top 20 team, averaging out at 19.33 across three ranking tools. This should give Arkansas the excellent opportunity to be a 5-seed, their highest projection of the season.

BUBBLE

The Indiana Hoosiers find themselves in the deep end of the ocean without much support. The cruel reality is that the Hoosiers have just the Notre Dame win on a neutral court and a single road-win (at Maryland) to show for their body of work away from Bloomington. Hoosiers will get two road chances this week, beginning with Ohio State tonight and Minnesota this coming Sunday. IU is also just 8-9 vs. the Top 3 Quadrants with a 313th ranked non-conference strength of schedule. With five games to go plus the B1G Tourney, IU likely needs a total of four wins out of the next six contests to help balance that. A marquee win, like at Ohio State Monday, would help tremendously.

North Texas continues to win at a compelling rate. UNT finds themselves 20-4 and winners of 12 in a row. Perhaps I am in the minority of many other bracketologists, but I have a deep respect for teams that can win in leagues like CUSA at this rate, with all of the tough travel demands and Thursday-Saturday week-to-week format. The Mean Green have navigated this wonderfully. A thrilling road win at UAB was the icing on the cake. The way they took this win away from UAB late will sting the Blazers for days to come. Here is how it ended:

On the outside looking in today for the first time all season is BYU. The Cougars’ loss to Saint Mary’s, of course is not a bad loss at all. But we’ve reached a juncture in which things are not going BYU’s way any longer when compared to other teams. BYU’s win over Oregon is not as shiny at the current moment, because of the Ducks current three-game losing streak and being well off the cutline for now. That knocked BYU down to three wins against the field instead of four. Also, the quad records are shakier today. BYU is 7-8 vs. the top two Quadrants and that is a tough spot. Not to mention, the Strength of Resume metric has dipped into the ’60s (now 64). All signs say NIT for now. This can improve however if BYU closes with the two home wins and gets a quality win or two in the WCC Tournament.

AUTO BIDS

Both Vermont and Cleveland State have now clinched the regular-season title in each of their respective leagues. Major kudos to each. Vermont has ruined America East competition. Catamounts have skyrocketed to #62 in the NET thanks to their uber-efficient play. Cleveland State has hung tough despite a few bumps in the road lately. Coach Dennis Gates has a hungry and veteran team. The Horizon League Tournament will be a battle, but at least for CSU, they start in the top posititon to advance.

Princeton re-enters the field this morning after a revenge win over Yale. The Tigers have a potent offensive attack and are a threat should they get to the NCAA’s.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR OUT: North Carolina, Michigan, Florida, Virginia
NEXT TEAMS OUT: BYU, Belmont, Dayton, Kansas State
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Bracketology 02.11.22

Check back on Mondays for a full analysis and blog post on the Bracket. Feel free to check last Monday’s post for a good feel on where teams started this week.

Quick Recap of the Mid-Week
Purdue getting demolished in Ann Arbor really shifted a number of things during the selection and seeding process.

  1. Purdue would have remained a One-seed today and had the chance to move above Auburn with a win last night. Clearly, that was not in the cards.

  2. The loss and subsequent drops in several metrics, caused the Boilers to slip down to seventh overall on the seed-list and a clear two-seed.

  3. Michigan launched themselves above the cutline, as you may have noticed on the Big Board

  4. Highlights:

It’s not very often, that one game in February can impact both the top of the board and the cutline all in one. But last night was a perfect storm.

Also, take a look at Saint Louis. They did nothing wrong by blowing out La Salle this week and the Billikens were fourth out on Monday. So what happened?

  • We lost one of the bids, due to Northern Iowa being in the position to win the MVC. Also, this is a good practice regardless, because chances are high we will have a bid stolen during actual Championship Week.

  • Next, SLU witnessed Michigan, SMU, and Virginia capture landmark victories that completely upgraded their profiles.

  • Lastly, West Virginia beat Iowa State which gave the Mountaineers an additional win above the field.

All and all, the Bills did nothing wrong - yet slipped from the fourth team out to the ninth team out. A true microcosm for how well the bubble has performed lately.

The 16th and final protected seed (last of the four-seeds) was a difficult choice between Marquette, Tennessee, or Texas. Marquette has the best wins but also has some dicey metrics by comparison. The Vols are shining with a Top 10 quality metric and Strength of Record rating. For today, the Vols get the nod but have to travel to Buffalo.

 

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (MVC, Northern Iowa)

FIRST FOUR OUT: North Carolina, Belmont, San Diego State, West Virginia
NEXT TEAMS OUT: SMU, Florida, UAB, Virginia
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.07.22

Another week of College Basketball has gone by and the turmoil within the race to 36 at-large bids is really cranking up. Under-five weeks remain until the bracket is revealed for real. The reality is that we have a season like no other in College Basketball. The extra Covid year has made so many teams more productive and dangerous. You combine that with the open-ended transfer portal and you get teams like Marquette and Providence, who continue to turn heads and make headlines in the Big East. More and more surprises are still in front of us, I truly believe.

SEED SUMMARY

TOP SEEDS
Kentucky just continues to take the nation by storm in recent weeks. This past weekend the Wildcats punished Alabama in Coleman Coliseum. Kentucky joins Auburn (our Top seed) as the only teams to win on Alabama’s home floor. The Wildcats are right on the cusp of entering the one-seeds. Kansas (a team that KY beat recently) had a big Saturday by blowing out Baylor and the overall Jayhawk body of work still holds up when compared to Kentucky’s body of work. Fear not, Wildcat fans, if UK keeps playing like this - they will be a one-seed in no time.

The aforementioned Marquette and Providence squads are sitting in great shape to be a protected seed. The Friars have one of the best resumes you’ll find, with a dominant 10-2 record against the top two quadrants and four elite wins (Quad 1A). It is very tempting to move the Friars up higher than a four-seed, however, the quality metrics are still averaging out near 40th overall, which gives me enough reason to believe the committee room would be divided on them. As for Marquette, the sweep over Villanova looms large as does their very impressive eight wins (counts WVU) vs. the projected field. The Golden Eagles also have four elite wins in Quad 1A.

MIDDLE SEEDS

Tennessee and Texas continue to have quite a bit in common besides their color schemes. Both the Horns and Vols have very impressive quality metrics. Really demonstrating that they can dominate the inferior and respectable competition. On the flip side, they have a need to pick up additional road wins to get up to protected seed status. Texas has the TCU road win and that’s a start, Tennessee does not have one yet against a team in the current field.

Saint Mary’s will look to get a rocking crowd later this month when the7 host Gonzaga. In the mean time, the Gaels are playing splendid basketball and moving up the Big Board.

Saint Mary’s has somewhat quietly won seven in a row. Most of the streak was against the beatable portion of the WCC, but the Gaels did mix in that key win at San Francisco. A critical week is ahead, as SMC heads to Santa Clara tomorrow and Gonzaga on Saturday, with a home game mixed in vs. San Diego on Thursday.

Wake Forest has arrived! In a few interviews last week, I mentioned that Wake Forest was grading out as a tournament team. The Deacs were left out of both bracket forecasts a week ago due to being near the bubble and an unprecedented OOC strength of schedule (333rd nationally). Because the Deacs continue to add on to their resume and win, they now are safely above the bubble danger for today and land as a Nine-Seed.

The Deacs are feeling good today, but need to keep winning.

BUBBLE

Creighton did not play well at Seton Hall on Friday and that has ruffled some feathers with their predictive metrics. I still believe the four key wins that the Jays possess (At Marquette, At UConn N-BYU, H-Villanova) reigns supreme when compared to the other bubble options. The overall profile is extreme in both directions and warrants sending Creighton to the First Four.

UNC is the most polarizing team out there. To me, everything is always done on a macro-level. So it makes no difference in my process if this were UNC or New Mexico. The facts are that the Heels are 0-7 vs. Q1 and that also happened to be the only seven teams they have faced within the tourney projected cutline. They are 16-0 against everybody else which includes a Quad 2B road win at Louisville. There is just enough there to keep them in the field because they have done no wrong (losses outside of Q1), however, a trip to Dayton is more than warranted.

The final two teams today are San Diego State and Belmont. I mentioned last week that both of these teams are very “selectable.” They have hung around despite the Aztecs’ heartbreaking loss to Colorado State and Belmont’s near-disaster at Tennessee Tech over the weekend. They both survived long enough to see the Big 12 recent fallout from West Virginia and Oklahoma and promptly replaced them both.

Oklahoma is finding itself on the wrong side of the bubble after simply piling up too many losses. The Sooners are just 7-10 in their games against the combined top three quadrants. This can become an issue for teams in the loaded Big 12, as each game is brutally tough to the point that it is seemingly destiny for a team or two to slip out of balance with poor records. Oklahoma needs a big-time win somewhere or an accumulation of solid wins to right the ship. You can also apply this same logic to West Virginia and Kansas State, two programs that are facing similar challenges.

UAB is a team that is difficult to place, and very much alive in the discussion. The Blazers have the two tough losses at Marshall and at Rice that would potentially make the committee hesitate. Whereas Belmont has a relatively clean profile and hasn’t been hit with the bad loss (yet).

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR OUT: Oklahoma, Florida, UAB, Saint Louis
NEXT TEAMS OUT: West Virginia, Stanford, Dayton, Mississippi State
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.04.22

Check back on Monday’s for a full analysis and blog post on the Bracket. Feel free to check last Monday’s post for a good feel on where teams started this week.

Announcements:
Each Monday and Friday, The Field of 68 will host a Bracketology Show, called “Fielding the 68.” It will be a rotating panel of experts. I appeared on Monday and will be back again today at 6 PM EST to answer a ton of Bracketology questions. Be sure to check it out. If you missed Monday’s show, here is the link:

Also, several projects are in the works. So stay tuned for more. Our friends at HoopsHD do a Bracket rundown show each Thursday. I will join that panel from time to time. Check out all of their excellent work at www.HoopsHD.com.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (MVC, Drake)

FIRST FOUR OUT: Wake Forest, San Diego State, Belmont, Florida
NEXT TEAMS OUT: UAB, Dayton, New Mexico State, SMU
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 01.31.21

Happy February Eve! We’re about to embark on the “dog days” of College Basketball as we enter the crucial month of February. Several teams who we thought were going to be Tournament mainstays this season are slipping, and others who were prematurely written off (always a rookie mistake by the CBB community) are beginning to really gel. Were talking about Kentucky’s, Texas’s, Arkansas’s, VCU’s, and the UNC Wilmington’s of the world. The types of teams you really need to be watching closely and playing their best ball of the season.

This coming week, a new Bracketology show on @TheFieldof68 will debut. The first episode is tomorrow and airs live at 6 PM EST, and same time again on Friday. I’ll be on both episodes this week, be sure to check it out. Also, @HoopsHD continues to crank out nonstop content with the HoopsHD Report on Mondays, Under The Radar Show on Wednesdays, and a Bracket Reveal Show each Thursday. I do my best to join their panel on a weekly basis.

SEED SUMMARY

TOP SEEDS
Auburn and Gonzaga are shoo-ins for the top two teams off the board. Auburn handled their business over Oklahoma this weekend and Gonzaga did their typical thing against inferior WCC programs - by blowing out Portland.

Baylor took a loss at Alabama. However, still feel more than comfortable calling the Bears the third team selected here. That was Baylor’s first loss away from home, and the Bears, in general, have stood out as a dominant team away from Waco. Not to mention, the fact that all of the metrics are solid, averaging a 3.33 ranking across the three predictive (KP, SAG, BPI) metrics listed on NCAA Team Sheets.

The real deliberation begins with determining that fourth top-seed. For Today, I am going with Purdue. I do believe four teams are worth diving into for this place. Kansas, who we had as the fourth #1 seed on Friday, took a rough home loss against Kentucky, you may have heard (highlights below). Arizona and UCLA are both eager to be a 1-seed, however, they lack the top-end road juice that Purdue and Kansas have. For instance, Purdue and Arizona both have won at Illinois, which is excellent. Purdue though has the supplemental high-end away wins to back it up, at Iowa, and Villanova + UNC on a neutral. Kansas still has a plethora of quality wins (seven vs. the field if you count North Texas), but the metrics took a hit with this Kentucky game debacle. Purdue wins out for now.

PROTECTED SEEDS
As seen above, Kentucky was the major winner over this weekend by going into Phog Allen at destroying Kansas. This has done a few helpful things for the Wildcats overall profile:

  • Elite Road Win

  • Up to 8th in NET

  • 4.67 AVG in Team Sheet Predictive’s

  • 9th in SOR (Strength of Record)

Given the factors above, I believe Kentucky currently sits in a stronger position than Villanova for the last 2-seed on the board. Kansas, Arizona, and UCLA join them there.

The 3-Seed line consists of the aforementioned Villanova Wildcats, Duke, Wisconsin, and Houston. Really no changes here as all four teams handled their business this weekend and continue to solidify their cases as a top-end seed. Villanova dropped from a two to a three, only due to Kentucky jumping over them.

The 4-Seed line is headlined by a Providence team that just quite simply refuses to lose. Another big-time win in the closing moments occurred on Sunday in a two-point win over Marquette. Texas Tech looks as strong as ever after blowing out Mississippi State. Michigan State had a fun win over rivals Michigan, however, it wasn’t all gravy for the Spartans during the resume review. Both Spartan wins over Minnesota, which was previously a “win over the projected field” are now not. Minnesota has simply fallen off the board. Spartans will need to find someone new to go after as Michigan is also not a tournament team at this stage. Lastly, Alabama comes soaring in to crash the Top 16 overall party after yet another marquee win over Baylor. The Tide lead the nation with SIX Quad 1A wins! Nobody else has more than four.

The scheduling machine, Nate Oats, once again has Alabama picking up big wins and has not played a single Quad 4 opponent this season.

MIDDLE SEEDS (5-9)
This is the part of the S-Curve that gets difficult to project. Teams like Iowa State and Marquette have five-plus wins over the projected field, however, the quality (predictive) metrics aren’t in love with them. Marquette was able to overcome some of the metrics challenges with amazing resume wins at Nova, at Hall, and others. Whereas the Cyclones did not have enough juice to hold up in comparison to the five’s and six-seeds.

Saint Mary’s was the beneficiary of many teams falling around them and the Gaels played highly efficient basketball simultaneously. The Gaels have been on some shaky ground in weeks past, but now look as solid as ever after getting the win at San Francisco and reaching the Top 25 of a few key metrics. TCU also took a leap of faith by beating LSU over the weekend. The Horned Frogs now own three wins vs. the projected field and hold a 5-3 record against the top 2A quadrants.

BUBBLE BREAKDOWN
Full disclosure, there is not a lot of joy yet in breaking down the bubble.

  1. There are too many teams in the hunt. I looked at 38 teams for 15 spots.

  2. Most teams have areas to cause concern and many have defacto disqualifiers, either via quad unbalance, Resume’s in the 85+ territory, or metrics in the 85+ territory.

  3. Several are simply just looking for a win vs. the field or a quality win away from home. In this area, we feel for the smaller schools that do not have the opportunity and have less sympathy for power teams like Mississippi State or North Carolina who still do not have a single Top two-quadrant away victory yet.

Going through all of these resumes, exposed a key team that is emerging - the VCU Rams. A quick look at the recent Bracket Matrix shows that only four of 98 people had the Rams in their brackets this past Friday. VCU went on to get another quality road win at rival Richmond this past Saturday and I have a strong belief that the selection committee would have deliberation in regards to the health of Ace Baldwin, Jr. Clearly the Rams have been on another level with Baldwin available. The numbers are starting to fall into place: 56th in NET, 47th in SOR, and four away wins in the top two quads (includes Davidson). We’re sold for today and sending the Rams to the First Four.

Wake Forest was the major exclusion here. Wake actually graded out as a first four team in the general sorting of all factors. However, historical precedence tells us that a team with an NCSOS of #326 would not be one of the final teams selected. The committee is notorious for discussing, “who did you play,” “where did you play them,” and “how did you do?”If you are a Wake fan, this is nothing personal, just what I believe what the committee would likely do in this situation.

VCU is not only catching the A-10 by surprise, they are now doing it to Bracket Makers.

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (MVC, Drake)

FIRST FOUR OUT: Wake Forest, Creighton, UAB, Stanford
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Florida, Notre Dame, Belmont, New Mexico State
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @roccomiller8

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