By Rocco Miller
It’s 4:52 PM on a Tuesday in late October, and yet again I am standing, chatting, watching practice with a breakout program, Middle Tennessee. It suddenly hits me, that there is still a lot of work to be done to prepare for this much-anticipated season. All of the off-season travelings were to be done after that day for a bit. Amazing as it was to attend practices and have countless discussions with coaching staffs nationwide - the start of the season outshines all. Rolling up the sleeves time for another reason has now arrived.
The 22-23 campaign begins on Monday. November 7th. The day includes 200 games with at least one D1 team in play, and I believe 126 with two D1 schools facing off. The best part of all? It will serve as a day when the majority of these leagues will have a solid chunk of the national spotlight. Our Big Sky pick Montana State heads to play our WAC pick, Grand Canyon. The pick in the MAAC is Iona, they have an intriguing matchup hosting the Ivy Pick, Penn. Akron faces South Dakota State, MAC pick Kent State is at NKU, Chattanooga plays at Charleston, and the list goes on about 20-25 deep with truly good matchups at this level. By the end of the opening week, our forecast and votes into Field of 68’s Mid-Major Poll will look much different than it does today.
Isn’t that what makes College Hoops the best?
Think of this piece as Bracketeer’s official tip-off article. We begin by looking at the projected one-bid leagues. One-Bid leagues deliver unbelievable conference tournament drama, unexpected storylines, and rising star Head Coaches each and every season. These leagues are not only intriguing to follow but in many cases overlooked by the selection committee when it comes to seeding. Seeding has become very metrics-driven, and the problem for teams from these leagues is they typically cannot compete in that arena. Sure there are caveats like Murray State getting a seven last year, and Wofford and Buffalo in the past - but you have to be truly dominant in your record and your performances for this to be the case. This year UAB could certainly be in that realm, but beyond the Blazers it will be a surprise to see anyone crack the top eight seed lines.
The scales have been also tipped in more recent seasons for one-bid leagues to not have opportunities to schedule for big-time quality wins and it is increasingly more and more difficult to send more than one team to the dance from these 22 conferences specifically. Last season we witnessed two excellent SoCon teams, Chattanooga and Furman go toe-to-toe in the SoCon Tournament Title Game. Furman lost an absolute heartbreaker after a 30+-foot buzzer-beater sunk the Paladins’ hopes. Furman was capable of doing real damage in the postseason but due to some extremely tight resume standards for teams like Furman by the committee, there was no real hope for the Paladins. The deck is stacked against these leagues, no question about it. Not all hope is lost, Belmont in 2019 and East Tennessee State in 2020 were right there for an at-large (Belmont went to the First Four that season). The best case for a two-bid opportunity this season rests in Conference USA and perhaps the Missouri Valley. Any other league that does it is mostly a long shot at best. Perhaps if Furman (SoCon) or Towson (CAA) have incredible resumes in non-conference, then take care of business in the league, you might have something there. However, history tells us to not count on it.
One-bid leagues very quickly get overlooked in your everyday bracket forecasters., who may be assuming “okay this team is picked first” or “this team is currently in first” and just plug them into a bracket forecast accordingly? We will not do that here, we envision which teams are set up well to win the Regular Season Championship, and separately look at which teams are set up to succeed in their specific conference tournament setting. Admittedly, once we make it into conference play at mid-season and beyond, I will change my projected auto-bid winner to reflect who has the inside track to the Conference Tournament #1 seed. It also works as an agent to recognize more programs publically throughout the season instead of just plugging in the same representative for each new bracket post. We love recognizing programs!
The belief here is that it is more effective and thoughtful to predict both the regular season and tournament outcomes: Not all tournaments are created equal, FAR from it. Some are on-campus, some are in neutral locations and the bracket format varies tremendously from league to league. For these reasons, I have two sets of predictions and the Auto Bid winners will be applied to my upcoming Preseason Bracket. For extra fun, I’ve also added a Darkhorse team to track this year and Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year picks for each conference.
Tucker DeVries and Roman Penn have dreams to help Drake build an at-large caliber resume in 22-23.
The One-Bid Leagues
In order of predicted league finish nationally by Strength of Conference.
Missouri Valley
Season Outlook:
Drake is left alone at the top of the Valley with the departure of Loyola-Chicago. The Bulldogs should get a development boost out of Tucker DeVries and Roman Penn is back for another Arch Madness run. The SIU Salukis are the pick however to win the coveted Arch Madness crown. Bryan Mullins has been a defensive minded coach from day one and has enough offensive weapons to be a difficult out in St. Louis. The Bradley Braves will also be dangerous by March, presuming they return to full strength. Watch out for the Sycamores, our darkhorse. Indiana State has a rotation full of experienced old men and welcome Courvoisier McCauley in from DePaul, who could thrive in the Valley. The league welcomes Belmont, Murray State, and UIC as well. And you can never sleep on Northern Iowa or Missouri State. The Bears plan to showcase an excellent defense, making them especially dangerous in Arch Madness. Should be a fascinating season!
Darkhorse Team:
Indiana State
Regular Season Champion:
Drake
Conference Tournament Location:
St. Louis, MO
Auto-Bid Winner:
Southern Illinois
Player of the Year:
Tucker DeVries - Drake
Newcomer of the Year:
Seneca Knight - Illinois State
Conference USA
Season Outlook:
The buzz in CUSA is growing by the day. That is because this league had a fortuitous break when Southern Miss departed, combined with the expected rise of Florida Atlantic and Middle Tennessee. League strongholds - UAB, North Texas, and Western Kentucky all have talent yet again. UAB has elite level playmakers with Jelly Walker and Eric Gaines, putting the Blazers firmly in our projected field. UTEP will continue to grow under Joe Golding and Rice should also be improved. Talvin Hester took over at Louisiana Tech and has some weapons too. The league has five teams capable of making major noise, and overall depth. This season forecasts to be one of the highest rated CUSA seasons in recent history.
Darkhorse Team:
UTEP
Regular Season Champion:
UAB
Conference Tournament Location:
Frisco, TX
Auto-Bid Winner:
UAB
Player of the Year:
Jelly Walker - UAB
Newcomer of the Year:
Montre’ Gipson - Charlotte
WAC
Season Outlook:
The WAC is peaking in modern times. The sheer depth of the league is making prognosticators look bad. Someone has to finish in ninth right? That’s tough. There are nine strong teams for the WAC level on paper heading into the season. With all of that said, the proven coaching track record of Bryce Drew and the talent the Lopes have in store has enough to project GCU the league champs and tourney bid winners. The talent at New Mexico State is superb, per usual, and the Aggies are a close second for us. Greg Heier will be a D1 coach for the first time and we expect big things. After that you have a California Baptist roster that loaded up in the portal and is eligible for March Madness for the first time. Abilene Christian brings back Joe Pleasant (one year at Wichita State) from the 2020 team along with a lot of solid pieces. Always tough Stephen F. Austin is back to contend with Roti Ware & co. The Seattle U. Redhawks have Cam Tyson and nice core of players to go along with a burgeoning young Head Coach in Chris Victor. Utah Valley has a healthy Trey Woodbury this season and a hungry MadDog (Mark Madsen) coaching them. Southern Utah is now part of the WAC. The Thunderbirds bring back an old team and Tevian Jones has all-league type of game. And finally we have Jason Hooten’s veteran squad adding a Kansas State transfer (Kaosi Ezeagu) to shore up the Bearkats frontcourt. Those are nine very capable teams entering a league season that will be giving away four byes in the WAC Tournament. Buckle your seatbelt.
Darkhorse Team:
Tarleton (not eligible for NCAA)
Regular Season Champion:
Grand Canyon
Conference Tournament Location:
Las Vegas, NV
Auto-Bid Winner:
Grand Canyon
Player of the Year:
Tevian Jones - Southern Utah
Newcomer of the Year:
Kyron Gibson - UT Arlington
SoCon
Season Outlook:
Furman has the preseason spotlight to themselves for once. The Paladins are on a great run in SoCon play under Bob Richey. In Richey’s five seasons, Furman has finished no worse than five games over .500 in league play. The problem has been in each season a stiff challenger was in their way from the NCAA Tournament. This year, there is no prominent challenger at Furman’s level heading into the campaign. Samford feels great about their team behind Ques Glover and a strong core that includes Bubba Parham now. UNC Greensboro has a really old veteran team that might be being slept on. The inside-outside phenom, Jake Stephens, remains in the league at Chattanooga and is joined by his former coach, Dan Earl, and former teammate, Honor Huff. Wofford’s B.J. Mack is one of the most efficient basketball players returning in the nation. East Tennessee State’s Jordan King will be a go-to guy and likely an all-league player. As you can see, Furman will have no shortage of challengers to earn the bid. Furman remains the clear favorite, easier said than done in one-bid land.
Darkhorse Team:
Wofford
Regular Season Champion:
Furman
Conference Tournament Location:
Asheville, NC
Auto-Bid Winner:
Furman
Player of the Year:
Jalen Slawson - Furman
Newcomer of the Year:
Keondre Kennedy - UNC Greensboro
Big West
Season Outlook:
This league continues to build upon its depth and this season has an outside shot with an at-large contender. UC Santa Barbara enters the season as a Top 75 candidate nationally. Reigning Freshman of the Year, Ajay Mitchell, has spent the summer playing in high-level international competition and is poised to emerge into the national spotlight. The Gauchos also pulled in quality big Andre Kelly from Cal, forming a formidable lineup at the Big West level. However, we also are high on Long Beach State. LBSU may be being slept on a little bit by other publications. Mr. clutch, Joel Murray, is back to close out games. Marcus Tsohonis joins the program after stints with Washington and VCU. Jadon Jones has high caliber game, and LBSU forecasts to have the best team defense in the conference. I can’t believe they will qualify as a darkhorse pick. If this league knows anything, it knows to never sleep on UC Irvine. Russ Turner’s club still has Dawson Baker and an assortment of veteran players, never count them out. UC Riverside has had an upward trajectory building under Mike Magpayo. The Highlander will be led by Zyon Pullin and will give teams fits with their size. UCR won’t have a player on the court shorter than 6-4 unless Jamal Hartwell is on the floor. Hawai’i is excited about getting healthy and adding additional depth. Noel Coleman was a 44% sniper from distance last season and earned All-Big West honors. A deep darkhorse is fittingly the Cal Poly Mustangs. Three returning starters and a quality transfer haul have this team grading out much better than in previous years. Can the ‘Stangs mesh well?
Darkhorse Team:
Long Beach State
Regular Season Champion:
UC Santa Barbara
Conference Tournament Location:
Henderson, NV
Auto-Bid Winner:
UC Santa Barbara
Player of the Year:
Joel Murray - Long Beach State
Newcomer of the Year:
Andre Kelly - UC Santa Barbara
Sun Belt
Season Outlook:
Likely the most impossible league to predict. Up to ten teams can forseeably win this thing. In no particulary order: Georgia State, Texas State, James Madison, Marshall, Louisiana, Old Dominion, Troy, South Alabama, Appalachian State, and Coastal Carolina. This is a year where a coach like Scott Cross (Troy) or Texas State’s Terrence Johnson (nationally underrated and needs more love!) can really make an impact on how a season unfolds. Georgia State brought in Jarvis Hayes from Xavier and might have the most talent in the league to go along with their beautiful new arena. Louisiana was the Media Day pick by the league and still have Jordan Brown, a dominant big. James Madison, ODU and Marshall are all new to the league and have a lot to like about their rosters. Marshall’s Taevion Kinsey returns for another year and will be a top player in the league. At Appalachian State, watch out for Donovan Gregory. He is one of the best versatile defenders in the country and gives HC Dustin Kerns a lot of lineup optionality with his ballhandling on offense as a bigger player. Pairing him with Dibaji Walker (transfer from UMass) will spice up some real athleticsm for the Mountaineers and give teams problems.
Darkhorse Team:
Troy
Regular Season Champion:
Georgia State
Conference Tournament Location:
Pensacola, FL
Auto-Bid Winner:
Texas State
Player of the Year:
Dwon Odom - Georgia State
Newcomer of the Year:
Kevin Samuel - South Alabama
Ivy League
Season Outlook:
Coming off a breakthrough season for Cornell, the rest of the Ivy League has hope! The Big Red made their second appearance in the Ivy Madness four-team tournament and first since 2018. It has been a brick wall for anyone not named Yale, Princeton, Penn, or Harvard. The Brown Bears have had talent and knocked on the door, just have not been able to get the wins in the final weekends to put them over the top. It’s a fascinating league setup. For this season, we believe Penn is the choice. Jordan Dingle can fill it up, averaging nearly 21 PPG last season and the Quakers virtually return everybody. They will need to sort out their defense though to cut down the Ivy nets in March. Quakers really struggled to get stops or force turnovers last season. Princeton is next in line to battle for a title. Tovan Evbuomwan is back again to put the Tigers on his back. He’s joined by fellow vets, Ryan Langborg and Matt Allocco to steer the ship. Tigers also host Ivy Madness this year, which increases the chances to advance to the NCAA’s. The rest of the rotation is somewhat of a mystery and mostly young, which leaves some question marks heading into the season. At Harvard, the Crimson are looking to make an early splash by participating in the Asheville Championship event during the season’s opening weekend. They will have solid competition from Louisiana and potentially East Tennessee State down there. Harvard has good positionless length and do not plan to start anyone smaller than 6-4 (baring injury). Chris Ledlum is an all-Ivy player, and people may be sleeping on this team. As for Yale, our fourth mainstay - James Jones remains as Head Coach despite interviewing for other openings over the years. The team has to replace a star in Azar Swain and Jalen Gabbidon. A variety of combos are possible for Jones to work with, we give him the benefit of the doubt at this stage, but perhaps Yale takes a tiny step back. Cornell says goodbye to four contributors, however the Big Red are so balanced that it may not hurt them in the end. Look for them to be back in the battle. Lastly, Brown has Kino Lilly, Jr. back in the mix along with Paxson Wojcik. Looks to us like six solid teams fighting for four spots, high drama heading our way. We love it.
Darkhorse Team:
Harvard
Regular Season Champion:
Penn
Conference Tournament Location:
Princeton University - Top four only.
Auto-Bid Winner:
Penn
Player of the Year:
Jordan Dingle - Penn
Newcomer of the Year:
Jack Scott - Princeton
MAC
Season Outlook:
The league has had a lot of turnover at the top in very recent times. Travis Steele takes over at Miami-Ohio, Dwayne Stephens at WMU, Michael Lewis at Ball State. This comes after coaching turnover at NIU, EMU, and CMU last season. So have the league is essentially in rebuild mode, which is dragging down the metrics of the league as a whole. The bright side is two-fold however, (1) the coaching pedigree and talent is quality across the board and (2) Coach Lewis walks into a situation to win right away at Ball State. There is hope for the near future for the bottom half. In the top half, things are just as competitive as ever. Toledo, Kent State, and Akron are set to have a fantastic race. All from the northern part of Ohio, the regional element will only make this more fierce. The Rockets are the proven commodity at this point. They have been simply dominant in league play and have four crucial players returning that can all shoot it well. The Kowalczyk offensive system is tried and true, and still baffles the majority of the league. Kent State is perhaps the sexy pick. Coach Rob Senderoff’s team went on a 12-game win streak late last season behind the brilliant leadership and play of Sincere Carry. Carry is back and the Golden Flashes went aggressive by scheduling road games at Houston and Gonzaga among other really challenging non-conference games. This will only benefit Kent State further by the time we get to league play. Akron are the defending tournament champs and have double-double monster Enrique Freeman back. Coach John Groce has had wild success as a MAC coach and this year figures to be a strong one again. The Ohio Bobcats and Buffalo Bulls have had a great run in the past decade, getting to title games and winning them. Both are in rebuild mode this season but with upside talent. I expect both to be much tougher later in the season, and dangerous by the time we get to MAC Tournament action. Let’s not forget the aforementioned Ball State Cardinals under new HC Michael Lewis. The Cards bring back a low post nightmare in Payton Sparks. Sparks makes teams pay with a stellar Free throw percentage and glass-cleaning skills. Jarron Coleman is back after a one-year stint with Mizzou. Coleman was unbelievable as a Sophomore with Ball State, and they hope to get him back into that form. Oh by the way, Eastern Michigan landed Emoni Bates. The starting lineup will have Bates, Noah Farrakhan (leading scorer last year), and three other transfers from Providence, Georgetown, and Duquesne. EMU likely has the most talent in the MAC. The predictive risk here lies within Bates coming in late and Heath’s staff perhaps not having enough time to get this group cohesive. EMU will be a hot story all season either way.
Darkhorse Team:
Ohio U.
Regular Season Champion:
Toledo
Conference Tournament Location:
Cleveland, OH - Only the Top 8 qualify.
Auto-Bid Winner:
Kent State
Player of the Year:
Enrique Freeman - Akron
Newcomer of the Year:
Armoni Foster - Buffalo
ASUN
Season Outlook: This version of the ASUN is wild with parity once you move past Liberty and Jacksonville. You can make a case for just about any other program, including D1 newcomers Queens, to make a run at the top three spots. Before we get too deep lets review the two league favorites. Darius McGhee is back once again to lead the Liberty Flames. That alone will scare opponents. One of the most lethal players in non-power conference basketball. Standing at just 5-9, McGhee has become one of the nation’s leading scorers (24.6 PPG last year) by playing freely in Liberty’s system and being a consistent outside shooter. The Flames also welcome back Kyle Rode and Joseph Venzant, who were great contributors last year, plus a solid freshman class is in to learn from these leaders. Jacksonville personifies the word tough. The Dolphins were undefeated on their home court last season, had the best overall defense in the ASUN, and were a fantastic offensive rebounding team. In one short year, Head Coach Jordan Mincy took a program that is typically near the bottom to an ASUN Title game. The next logical step is to win the tournament, and with Liberty’s streaky shooting an upset is possible. The next cluster of teams is really difficult to sort out, so I will simply point out some things I like. Jacksonville State’s Ray Harper is one of the great X’s and O’s coaches you’ll find anywhere and the Gamecocks have the talent to win in this league. Bellarmine loses Dylan Penn, but will still be a thorn and who knows may win the league in some capacity again. Scott Davenport can flat out run a program. Eastern Kentucky has been getting regional buzz about how they are looking in practice, after an injury riddled 2022, the Colonels look to be on a mission in 2023. Queens was a Division II juggernaut, and might not miss a beat at this level. Much like Bellarmine, it is a program built on winning culture. Lipscomb still has Ahsan Asadullah and they added a few D2 up-transfers to really make themselves a wildcard contender. Austin Peay will open a beautiful new arena this season and Nate James is bringing in quality talent behind Elijah Hutchins-Everett. Florida Gulf Coast hired Pat Chambers and they still have an all-league caliber player in Chase Johnston. Kennesaw State has had this same core of players for three or so years and are in position to make a leap forward. Word is that Central Arkansas is also improved behind Cameren Hunter’s stellar play.
Darkhorse Team:
Eastern Kentucky
Regular Season Champion:
Liberty
Conference Tournament Location:
On-Campus of the higher seed.
Auto-Bid Winner:
Jacksonville
Player of the Year:
Darius McGhee - Liberty
Newcomer of the Year:
Leland Walker - Eastern Kentucky
CAA
Season Outlook:
The buck stops with Towson in the CAA. Getting Cam Holden, Nicolas Timberlake, Charles Thompson, and Jason Gibson all to return was a massive haul for HC Pat Skerry. The Tigers are not only hands-down the best team on paper in the CAA, but they have an outside shot at an at-large bid. The Tigers scheduled that way, designing a schedule that only affords them three home games out of 13 non-conference opportunities. The Tigers were tripped up in the CAA Semifinals last season vs. Delaware, who went on to win it. This season the Blue Hens will have a transition due to Dylan Painter and three other double-digit per game scorers leaving the program. HC Martin Ingelsby will look to go old once again as they brough in vets LJ Owens (via UMBC) and Christian Ray (via La Salle) to try to compete for another title, but they may experience some drop off. We are looking closely at Charleston as a team to make a run at Towson. The Cougars have the brilliant Pat Kelsey back for his second season and Reyne Smith looks like an all-CAA guy. Landing sniper Ryan Larson in the portal from Wofford will give the Cougars another level of threat to opposing defenses. Ante Brzovic was a double-double monster in JUCO, anxious to see what he can do. Over at Hofstra, things are always spicy. Especially conidering that Aaron Estrada (reigning CAA player of the year) is back. The Pride won’t have fan favorite Jalen Ray any longer, but HC Speedy Claxton is Tyler Thomas (via Sacred Heart) to fill it up. UNC Wilmington won so many tight ballgames last season. An element of clutch, and perhaps some good fortune on occasion, that is rarely seen last a full year. The Seahawks won their postseason tournament and return some of the players who love playing together. Out of the 27 wins last season, 21 of them came by single digits and the Seahawks went 5-0 in OT games. KenPom and others will chalk this up to a luck stat, which I partially agree with - however, acknowledging the ability to close out wins is equally as important to recognize. Will be interesting to see how some of the newcomers fit in and how HC Takayo Siddle gets them to bond this year.
Darkhorse Team:
Charleston
Regular Season Champion:
Towson
Conference Tournament Location:
Washington D.C.
Auto-Bid Winner:
Towson
Player of the Year:
Cam Holden - Towson
Newcomer of the Year:
Chase Cormier - Northeastern
MAAC
Season Outlook:
The fairy tale of all fairy tales derived from the MAAC last March. The stunning part? It was not Iona. Yes, by now you know I’m talking about the Peacocks of Saint Peter’s who made all kinds of conference history and money for the MAAC by advancing to the Elite Eight. Since then, everything has changed. The staff is at Seton Hall. Nearly all players moved on. But the program has been transformed for the future and excitement is high. SPC brings in HC Basir Mason, who did a tremendous job at Wagner. Mason filled the roster with four D1 level transfers and we should expect the Peacocks to be fiesty later in the season, but not quite ready to compete for the title in year one. Iona stands alone in their own tier as we enter the season. Coach Pitino would like to get this Gaels team in position for a potential at-large and continues to build a national schedule. Nelly Junior Joseph, Berrick JeanLouis, Quinn Slazinski and others all return and they add a JUCO sniper in Daniss Jenkins to help the perimeter threat. Pitino welcomes a talented four-player frosh class as well, so depth should not be an issue. Next in line is Fairfield after the recent debacle at Manhattan (too sad about it to go into detail, but a potentially special Jaspers season was lost). The Stags are being slept on by some. With top rebounder, Supreme Cook back and fellow starter Jake Wojcik - HC Jay Young went aggressive in the portal and landed former Top 100 player and Providence Friar, Brycen Goodine. Young also got a three-year vet from Bowling Green, Caleb Fields. Beyond these four players, the Stags have experience to go about nine-deep with returnees. All of this plus a beautiful new arena has more excitement at Fairfield than I can remember. The Siena Saints are looking to get bak to the top of the conference. Siena has a lot of quality in Jackson Stormo and Javian McCollum. Rider was the team who stunned Iona in the MAAC Quarters last season and paved the way for Saint Peter’s to become a reality. The Broncs feel good about their nucleus for this campaign behind Dwight Murray Jr. The league welcomes Mount St. Mary’s this season, who is always well coached behind Dan Englestad.
Darkhorse Team:
Fairfield
Regular Season Champion:
Iona
Conference Tournament Location:
Atlantic City, NJ
Auto-Bid Winner:
Iona
Player of the Year:
Nelly Junior Joseph - Iona
Newcomer of the Year:
Brycen Goodine - Fairfield
Summit
Season Outlook:
He’s baaaaack. That’s correct, Max Abmas is back for one more run at recapturing the 2021 magic found inside an Indianapolis bubble, when the ORU Golden Eagles improbably advanced to the Sweet Sixteen. Max’s backcourt buddies, Isaac McBride and Kareem Thompson are also back. The questions at ORU lie in the frontcourt. Coach Paul Mills and staff feel like they’ve addressed this by landing 7-3 transfer Connor Vanover, who has played well at Cal, and sparingly at Arkansas. Plus Patrick Mwamba joins the crew from UT Arlington, a quality 6-7 stat-sheet stuffer. Carlos Juergens will come off the bench, a key glue guy that played a great role during the 2021 run. South Dakota State is moving forward without Baylor Scheierman. That clears the path for Zeke Mayo, who has uber breakout potential written all over him. The home court advantage and offensive system (#2 in nation in 3-point% last year) will continue to pay dividends for this program. South Dakota hired Eric Peterson from Utah (Assistant Coach). Eric was previously on staff in Vermillion, and is fired up to be leading the program. Even better news for the Coyote community is A.J. Plitzuweit is ready to return from a grusome leg injury that threatened his career. Kruz Perrott-Hunt was excellent last year, and he is back. This squad has major upside. Dispite getting very little buzz, North Dakota State still has all-league level players in Grant Nelson and Andrew Morgan. Dave Richman is a mastermind, especially once we get later in the season. Bison will once again be a tough out. In Denver, a program is finally beginning to emerge from the rubble. Jeff Wulbrun enters his second season as after a relatively successful first campaign (7-11 in confernece). He took over a program that did not crack the top 300 nationally in any of the previous three seasons. Now, the Pioneers are recruiting well and establishing something sustainable for the future, many have them projected fifth.
Darkhorse Team:
Denver
Regular Season Champion:
South Dakota State
Conference Tournament Location:
Sioux Falls, SD
Auto-Bid Winner:
Oral Roberts
Player of the Year:
Max Abmas - Oral Roberts
Newcomer of the Year:
Alec Rosner - Western Illinois
Big Sky
Season Outlook:
Montana State broke thru in 21-22 with a Big Sky Championship and backed it up by winning the Big Sky Tournament. The Bobcats bring back two uber-talented players in Jabrile Belo and RaeQuan Battle, to go along with the always steady Tyler Patterson. The bar in Bozeman has certainly been raised and the expectation is a repeat trip to the NCAA’s. Northern Colorado made a run to the title game last season, behind the sharpshooting lineup that featured Daylen Kountz. Kountz returns this season and has the ability to lead the nation in scoring. If the Bears plan to make it all the way through the Big Sky Tournament, they will need to improve upon an adjusted defense that ranked 329th in the country. A team who can play some defense is Weber State. The Wildcats led the Big Sky in team defense last year and have double-double machine Dillon Jones back in the fold. Legendary Wildcat coach Randy Rahe stepped aside, and longtime assistant Eric Duft is the new head man, but we do not expect a lot of stylistic changes. Two Mountain West transfers make them even more interesting, Keith Dinwiddie, Jr. (via San Diego State) and Junior Ballard (via Fresno State). Elsewhere, both Montana and Eastern Washington feels good about their teams. The Griz still have Josh Bannan and Brandon Whitney, plus they added Dischon Thomas (via Colorado State) and it appears that the roster has a lot of depth. Over in Cheney, the EWU Eagles welcome David Riley into his second season as head coach. One of the great young minds in our sport is adding on to what was built last season. Building around Steele Venters, the Eagles scored a key transfer in Deon Stroud (via Fresno State) and also scooped up Tyreese Davis (via Jacksonville) from the portal. Last but not least, Sacramento State hired David Patrick as its next Head Coach. Coach Patrick was an assistant at Oklahoma and was the UC Riverside Head Coach recently. His recruiting pipeline is second to none in this league. Patrick and staff got to work quickly, and have a formidable roster immediately ready to compete in the Big Sky.
Darkhorse Team:
Sacramento State
Regular Season Champion:
Montana State
Conference Tournament Location:
Boise, ID
Auto-Bid Winner:
Montana State
Player of the Year:
Jabrile Belo - Montana State
Newcomer of the Year:
Callum McRae - Sacramento State
Horizon League
Season Outlook:
As the Horizon seeks to find it’s rebirth to the upper-eschlon of College Basketball, there are still some excellent stories brewing in this fine and proud league. First, Antoine Davis is back again to get buckets for Detroit Mercy and his Father. An all-time college player and record holder is able to return again, which is just an absolute treat. You have to respect the Titans as a potential contender with the best player in the league on their side. We tend to like the roster makeup and analytically-driven Penguins from Youngstown. That’s right, we’re rolling with YSU to win the league tournament this March and here is why. All-Horizon player Dwayne Cohill will lead a core of savvy players like Garrett Covington, Bryce McBride (via EMU), Adrian Nelson (via Northern Kentucky) and the crew on a balanced attack. The depth of the bench is there as well for the Penguins as Brandon Rush (via FDU) and Malek Green (via Canisius) will provide additional scoring opportunity. Speaking of Northern Kentucky, they are right on the doorstep of being the team to beat. The Norse improved a lot throughout the course of last season. I was really impressed by Sam Vinson and Trevon Faulkner in covering their game at Cleveland State last season. Leading scorer Marques Warrick is back to round out the deadliest set of guards in the Horizon League. Can the frontcourt do enough to keep NKU on top? Purdue Fort Wayne was a really great story last season as Jarred Godfrey and the Mastadons had a 15-6 league record and finished the regular season with a nine-game win streak. The Mastadons lineup this year is full of guys who are back from that team, plus the depth looks impressive. Highlighted by Saint Cloud State (Non-D1) up-transfer, Anthony Roberts, who averaged nearly 21 points per game at that level. Head Coach Scott Nagy and the Wright State Raiders are always in the race, that should be no different in 22-23. Trey Calvin projects to be one of the top scorers in the Horizon and Tim Finke brings the glue. You can never dismiss Greg Kampe and Oakland either. Rocket Watts returns near home to play for the Golden Grizzlies, and Trey Townsend is back. It’s an old “grizzly” squad ready to spoil the plans of the aforementioned squads.
Darkhorse Team:
Oakland
Regular Season Champion:
Northern Kentucky
Conference Tournament Location:
Campus Sites and Indianapolis, IN (Semis and Finals)
Auto-Bid Winner:
Youngstown State
Player of the Year:
Antoine Davis - Detroit Mercy
Newcomer of the Year:
Jalen Johnson - Milwaukee
America East
Season Outlook:
If the AE Basketball photo here isn’t enough of a clue, the Bryant Bulldogs are here to spoil Vermont’s annual championship party. The Bulldogs have been on the rise ever since HC Jared Grasso took the job and hit the early years of the transfer portal like an absolute maniac. It has paid off for him and the program. Last season, Bryant finally broke through and won the NEC Tournament. A trip to the First Four and early exit vs. Wright State has this program looking bigger. Enter the America East Conference, who extended this invitation. As Bryant continues its ascent, so does its roster. Earl Timberlake (via Memphis) is now on board along with NCAA Tournament folk hero, Doug Edert (via Saint Peter’s). That’s just the beginning, a slew of qualty newcomers will join Charles Pride in an effort to win this league. Naturally new rivals, Vermont, will also bring a lot to the table. The Catamounts pulled off an impressive heist by getting Dylan Penn on board via Bellarmine. He was one of the top floor genreals in the ASUN. It’s a pretty old group of assorted vets with one exception. Keep an eye out for the frosh, TJ Hurley, who promises to be a deadly shooter once ready. Outside of these two programs, there is a pretty steep drop-off. Credit to both Binghamton and UMass-Lowell however, who both continue to build up their programs after a lot of down years.
Darkhorse Team:
Binghamton
Regular Season Champion:
Bryant
Conference Tournament Location:
On-Campus of the higher seed.
Auto-Bid Winner:
Bryant
Player of the Year:
Charles Pride - Bryant
Newcomer of the Year:
Dylan Penn - Vermont
Patriot League
Season Outlook:
Colgate’s only two losses last season Patriot League play came in the month of January on the road. The Raiders completely dominated after that point and did not lose in conference again. The Patriot League Tournament became a one-team show, with Colgate beating everybody in their path by at least 16 points or more. Can anyone in this league close the gap? We are going to lean no. Continuity linchpins in Tucker Richardson, Ryan Moffatt, Keegan Records, and Oliver Lynch-Daniels all return for what should be a special Senior season. It’s a program who has made some noise in each of the past two NCAA Tournaments, losing by just seven to Wisconsin last year and giving Arkansas a scare two years ago, before the Hogs stormed back in the second half. The Raider goal this year is clear: Three-peat as Patriot League Tournament champs and win a game in the NCAA’s. After Colgate, we look to Boston U to be the most likely to contend. The Terriers have a classic higher ed situation, with a complete projected rotation full of players that were on the team last year. They will need to replace three double-figure scorers, but age is on Boston U.’s side, who boast three graduate students in the starting five (Fletcher Tynen, Walter Whyte, and Jonas Harper). Lehigh could also be intriguing, as Evan Taylor is back for his Senior year and paired with a couple of potential breakout Sophomores, Keith Higgins, Jr. and Tyler Whitney-Sidney. Army and Navy have both made strides in the past couple of seasons. Army’s Jalen Rucker stands at 5-10 and can really fill it up, fun player to watch. Navy has a collection of veteran players, and the Mids are a bit of a wildcard in the sense that we are not sure who takes the majority of the shots.
Darkhorse Team:
Army
Regular Season Champion:
Colgate
Conference Tournament Location:
On-Campus of the higher seed.
Auto-Bid Winner:
Colgate
Player of the Year:
Jalen Rucker - Army
Newcomer of the Year:
Jack Forrest - Bucknell
MEAC
Season Outlook:
The league has shrunk to an eight-team collection of HBCU’s, however that can create some analytical advantages. Behind the power of Norfolk State and some incremental improvements in several other programs, the MEAC actually has the upside to ascend above the bottom five leagues for the first time (likely ever in D1). About those Spartans, Coach Robert Jones will be bringing back two of the three biggest question marks entering the offseason - Joe Bryant Jr. and Kris Bankston. The third was Jalen Hawkins, who opted to transfer to Morehead State. I’d still look at this as a major win overall for Jones and the Spartans this offseason. They will have the opportunity to compete for a Top 150 KenPom ranking, which is another unheard of analytical figure for a MEAC program. More importantly, NSU has one of the highest returning continuity rosters in the country and are the slam dunk choice to win the conference. The first eight projected players in the rotation are either seniors or fifth-year seniors, simply old men ready to win. Outside of NSU, the NC Central program led by LeVelle Moton is always dangerous in league play. Coach Moton has led the Eagles to four NCAA Tournaments since 2014 and won the MEAC in the cancelled 2020 season, so effectively five in the last nine. The 22-23 version of the Eagles will have a solid returning trio of Justin Wright, Kris Monroe, and Eric Boone. Each averaged near or above double-figure score last year and Wright is a great shooter from deep. Devin Butts could be the key change agent. The athletic and gifted Butts had a great stint in JUCO after starting his career at Mississippi State, and spent some time with Louisiana-Lafayette. The Howard Bison should also make MEAC noise this season. Reigning conference freshman of the year, Elijah Hawkins is back and ready to take the Sophomore jump at Point Guard. Transfers are in from the Big Ten, Mountain West and the Ivy League to ideally raise the bar in DC.
Darkhorse Team:
Coppin State
Regular Season Champion:
Norfolk State
Conference Tournament Location:
Norfolk, VA
Auto-Bid Winner:
Norfolk State
Player of the Year:
Elijah Hawkins - Howard
Newcomer of the Year:
Kareem Ewell - Delaware State
OVC
Season Outlook: Headlines here a quite obvious, the Belmont Bruins and Murray State Racers are no more. They’ve moved on to the greener pastures of the other Valley (MVC). The bright side for OVC contenders is the liklihood of securing an NCAA bid just went way up! The buck stops with Morehead State, who actually won the league tournament just two years back. Preston Spradlin has established himself as one of the better young coaches in the nation with a knack for recruiting. The challenge for the Eagles has been keeping the talent home the past few offseasons. That raises questions on if they will win this version of the OVC. The Eagles searched far and wide to snag NAIA All-American, Alex Gross, who avergaed an eye-popping 23.8 PPG and 14.1 RPG at Olivet Nazarene. Jalen Hawkins is also in (as mentioned in the MEAC preview), quite a late pickup for Spradlin and staff. Those are just two of a long list of transfers. Jake Wolfe is the main holdover from last season. UT Martin is getting more attention than usual as an OVC contender. Ryan Ridder’s teams at UTM and Bethune-Cookman have outperformed expectations generally, and here is his first real shot at an NCAA Tourney. The roster is headlined by Parker Stewart (via Indiana), who is a clear high-major player. Stewart returns back to UTM for an emotional season to honor his late father and former UTM coach, Anthony Stewart. KJ Simon, the team leader from last year, is also back which gives the Skyhawks a tough 1-2 punch. Perhaps the main knock could be the lack of size on UTM, which could force Stewart to defend the four in specific matchups. The most talented OVC player may just be SIU Edwardsville’s Ray’Sean Taylor. The Cougars could be ready to make noise with a good chunk of players returning and a key addition with Demarco “Polo” Minor in the fold from the JUCO ranks. This team is primarily built with non-seniors which could lend to additional devolopment improvements. SEMO’s Brad Korn is a coach I have been high on. He built a team this season with six new intriguing transfers to pair with returning guars, Phillip Russell and Chris Harris. Is this SEMO’s time to shine? And finally, Little Rock is relieved to be here after a gridlocked Sun Belt held them back last season. The Trojans have a shot here to steal this OVC title behind seniors DeAntoni Gordan, Myron Gardner, and Jovan Stulic.
Darkhorse Team:
Southern Indiana (New to D1), will make noise!
Regular Season Champion:
Morehead State
Conference Tournament Location:
Evansville, IN
Auto-Bid Winner:
Morehead State
Player of the Year:
Parker Stewart - UT Martin
Newcomer of the Year:
Alex Gross - Morehead State
Southland
Season Outlook:
Nicholls may be back-to-back regular season Southland Champions, but that was not enough for coaches to pick the Colonels first in the preseason Southland polls. At Bracketeer, the same mistake will not be made. We’re all in on Austin Claunch’s bunch in 22-23. Replacing Ty Gordon and Devante Carter won’t be easy. The Colonels believe they addessed that by signing five portal players including Micah Thomas (via Indiana State) and Josh LeBlanc (via UAB), real impressive pickups. Latrell Jones is still around for a fifth year and is joined by fellow vets Pierce Spencer and Manny Littles. The cupboard is still stocked for another title run. Perhaps if someone gets in their way, it will be Texas A&M Corpus Christi again, who snatched the auto bid away last March. The Islanders exceeded all expectations in Steve Lutz’s first year in charge. Isaac Mushila was a thorn in the side of opponents and nearly averaged a double-double, and six overall players return who averaged at least 20+ Minutes per night. Ross Williams joins the mix from D3 level Colorado Christian, where he was the primary bucket-getter. You can see why the coaches voted for TAMUCC and this will be a great battle at the top. We also love the talent flowing into Natchitoches, Louisiana. That’s right the Northwestern State Demons will be talented after freshly hired Corey Gipson hauled in three (Demarcus Sharp, Ja’Monta Black, and Isaac Haney) of his guys from Missouri State to come south with him and dialed up Dayne Prim (younger brother of Bears great Gaige Prim) to come in from the JUCO ranks. In addition to those four, Gipson landed Jordan Wilmore from Mizzou and raw but talented big man Majok Kuath from San Jose State. This is an impressive roster. How fast they gel and how well Gipson can coach are the remaining mysteries, but this team is bringing the biggest upside by far to the league. Keep your eye on the McNeese Cowboys as well. John Aiken’s team is poised to improve after getting quality experience to a young core of players (Johnathan Massie, Christian Shumate, and Trae English), who are poised to make a Sophomore year leap together alongside proven Senior, Zach Scott.
Darkhorse Team:
Northwestern State
Regular Season Champion:
Nicholls
Conference Tournament Location:
Katy, TX
Auto-Bid Winner:
Nicholls
Player of the Year:
Isaac Mushila - Texas A&M - Corpus Christi
Newcomer of the Year:
Jonathan Cisse - Incarnate Word
NEC
Season Outlook:
I love all conferences truly, but the NEC has a soft spot. The tiny packed gyms during NEC play, the heart and soul of many inter-city kids fighting to be noticed. This league brings no shortage of energy, passion, and grit. This year, the league takes a couple of key losses in Bryant and Mount St. Mary’s. Stonehill joins the party, a smaller institution in Easton, MA. When it comes to the regular-season forecast, nobody is better positioned than Merrimack to win the league. Which is a bit maddening because the Warriors are not eligible for the NCAA’s yet. Top two scorers, Jordan Minor and Ziggy Reid, are back and ready to fight for that regular season crown. HC Joe Gallo has made noise in each of the three years that Merrimack had been D1, having never finished below .500 in the league. He also adds a nice five-person freshman class to build for the future. They are the team to beat. Looking further to the NEC Tournament, we begin the quest for an auto-bid winner with St. Francis PA. Red Flash HC Rob Krimmel had a run of excellent NEC seasons between 2015-2020, before hitting a rebuilding speed bump the last two seasons. Five of the top six players in last season’s rotation return and the continuity will play to Krimmel’s system strengths: ball protection, offensive rebounding, and shot selection. Great window here for Krimmel to finally get the NCAA bid. Sacred Heart will be right there to contend as well. Anthony Latina’s teams have been knocked out by LIU in three of the past five NEC Tournaments. With LIU in a major rebuild, that threat is out of the way. The Pioneers have three experienced transfers coming from the MAAC to help increase their level of play - Raheem Solomon (via Niagara), Aidan Carpenter (via Siena), and Brendan McGuire (via Quinnipiac). Mainstays Nico Galette and Bryce Johnson round out what appears to be a solid five in the starting lineup. Fairleigh Dickinson will be overlooked by many, but not here. New HC Tobin Anderson enters Teaneck with quite a reputation. Anderson coached St. Thomas Aquinas (D2) for a decade and built up a .771 winning percentage. The man wins, folks. He brings his top three players from St. Thomas Aquinas with him to FDU in what will be a fascinating experiment, all three are expected to start. He went out and found a nice group of talented JUCO’s and HS players to fill the roster as well. It’s impossible to know where this is going, the upside has us excited.
Darkhorse Team:
Fairleigh Dickinson
Regular Season Champion:
Merrimack (ineligible for postseason)
Conference Tournament Location:
On-Campus of the higher seed.
Auto-Bid Winner:
St. Francis PA
Player of the Year:
Jordan Minor - Merrimack
Newcomer of the Year:
Rahmir Moore - Wagner
SWAC
Season Outlook:
The SWAC continues to make strides in growth as a league. This season the six-year agreement with the Pac-12 begins, which is a major win for the league. It means in each of the next six seasons that each school will play a home game against a Pac-12 school. This season, Grambling hosts Colorado, Texas Southern hosts Arizona State, and Prairie View A&M hosts Washington State. It’s an exciting time. Speaking of Texas Southern, they have been a mainstay at the top of the league standings. Last season’s win at Florida showed once again that this program is capable of anything. Johnny Jones’ group in 22-23 will consist of John Walker and a cast of returning players who have been waiting their turn. Coach Jones will also lean on 6-10 transfer (via UT Arlington), Grayson Carter to help uphold the Tigers reputation for being a menace on the offensive glass. The Southern Jaguars have a sour taste in their mouth entering the season after being upset by rivals Grambling in the SWAC Tournament a season ago. The Jags put together a solid 11-6 campaign in league-play and now have a veteran core returning. Tyrone Lyons figures to be a primary figure and one of the best leaders in this league. At Alcorn State, an upstart group of players and younger head coach (Landon Bussie) surprised several by earning a co-championship in 2022. Six of the nine rotation members are back for the Braves to get over the hump and make an NCAA Tournament, led by DJ Brewton and Keondre Montgomery. Tevin Wade, who sat last season out, has tremendous upside as a former JUCO all-american and Wichita State player. Never count out Prairie View A&M, coming in this season as a SWAC wildcard. They lost Jawaun Daniels, who had a tremendous career, yet gained five transfers from higher rated leagues. Two vets are still around for their fifth year in Jeremiah Gambrell and William Douglas. Alabama State welcomes in the Madlock family in 22-23. Tony will serve as head coach, and his son TJ might just be the best player in the league. What the Madlock’s did at South Carolina State last season was beyond impressive, and now TJ is in line for the development leap heading into his sophomore campaign. The Hornets have a load of newcomers, which makes team success a bit tougher to quantify at this moment. Keep your eye on them.
Darkhorse Team:
Prairie View A&M
Regular Season Champion:
Texas Southern
Conference Tournament Location:
Birmingham, AL
Auto-Bid Winner:
Alcorn State
Player of the Year:
TJ Madlock - Alabama State
Newcomer of the Year:
TJ Madlock - Alabama State