By Rocco Miller
The process of building a preseason bracket is like no other. For the only time all calendar year - It is 100% based on opinion. There is no data. There are no records. There are no metrics established. It is entirely a guess.
Which is the exact reason I am doing it. At no other time of the year am I able to offer any type of opinion-based projections and insert the results into a bracket. As silly as it all sounds, the process here is done very carefully. The projections you’ll see are based on a multitude of factors including but not limited to: coaching, roster talent, continuity, team defense, perceived championship pedigree, behind-the-scenes information gathered, injury forecasts, and many many more. The idea in totality is to best project what we will be left with five months from now on Selection Sunday, not what will happen this week or this month. Oregon for example has a history of starting slow and getting hot in February/March. Teams like this are accounting for both ends of the pendulum.
The ten leagues we will review here are responsible for nearly 68% of the projected NCAA bids. They will most likely make up the sweet 16 and beyond (barring another Saint Peter’sesque miracle). The power six conferences, of course, will snatch up the vast majority of bids - yet Houston and Gonzaga have as good of a chance as any to return to the Final Four, as they did in 2021.
The nations top programs have this logo pinned inside their lockers. Houston or bust in 2023.
What did we learn?
March of 2022 provided a combination of harsh reminders and stright surprises. A bevy of key results came through on Saturday, March 12th. Tennessee took down Kentucky in the SEC semifinals, Duke was punished by Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament final, Purdue advanced to the B1G final with a win over Michigan State, bubble-team Texas A&M dismantled Arkansas by 18 in the other SEC semifinal, and bubble-team SMU lost a tight one to Memphis in an AAC semifinal.
All of this was factored into our final bracket on Selection Sunday. The move to put both Purdue and Tennessee became clear on the seeding list. Purdue snatching the final 2-seed here. The move to put Texas A&M in the field became quite clear, and SMU in our belief had enough on the resume to be more attractive than Notre Dame or Rutgers.
All of the above ended up working against the committee’s final opinion, and we paid a price in the bracket matrix due to this. As has been shared here before, the committee simply wrapped up their seeding process ahead of the aforementioned Saturday results. In effect, none of the results made a difference. One could argue that the Friday results had little impact. We know that each time a team takes the floor, it represents a small piece of the overall body of work. These games, in hindsight, had no weight.
Texas A&M and SMU missed the field. Duke remained a two-seed. Virginia Tech stayed stuck as an 11-seed despite the great wins of Championship Week. The list goes on. All of this personally does bother me, yes. However, the purpose of the work here is to be as accurate as possible. It is something that has come up before in a previous bracket, and this served as a harsh reminder. Kudos to the handful of people who actually accounted for no results in their final bracket projection. The willpower and foresight were easier said than done. We have no choice but to apply these learnings to the upcoming selection process of 2023.
Forecasted Bid Breakdown - 2023
The Power-6 plus AAC, A10, MWC, and WCC make up the multi-bids for 2023. From time to time, we will showcase the Missouri Valley here as well, and I went ahead and left the MVC projected order of finish for us to track, despite being forecasted initially as just a one-bid league.
After months of discussions, reading, listening, and tracking personnel changes, I’ve put my best guesses for this season together. I have considered the early, middle, and late-season scenarios based on coaching philosophy, roster makeup, and overall perceived team strength. You will notice that some leagues have a different league champion than the projected Auto-Bid winner. This was done by design, as it is realistic to see this play out annually.
B1G
The Big Ten model for scheduling combined with the sheer competitiveness of the league continues to benefit its members. Despite a lack of a prominent powerhouse, there is a lot of solid across the Big Ten, and getting to a non-conference .750 winning pct. league-wide should not be an issue. That figure of .750 tends to bring many key measurement metrics up and is the goal of several leagues. The Big Ten has been doing it for a while now. Last season both Rutgers and Indiana (seen celebrating in 2022 below) squeezed into the First Four in Dayton. Rare to see two of the four spots given to the same league. Rutgers is once again left out of the project 2023 field, and we will likely regret this. Penn State is the dark horse to pay attention to from the B1G.
LINK - Indiana’s 2022 celebration on Selection Sunday en route to Dayton.
ACC & SEC
The SEC enters with seven forecasted tournament bids. Confidence within the SEC is stronger than the ACC behind established powers in Kentucky and Tennessee. Arkansas, Alabama, and Auburn have had a ton of recent success, here come more loaded rosters. We love what Texas A&M brings back this year, and Florida is very deep with two stars in Colin Castleton and Kyle Lofton. Watch out for Mississippi State and LSU, who have new staff and a load of talent - but not quite projected in.
In the ACC, the footing is less solid. Yes, pencil in UNC and Duke - no doubt. Virginia appears to be ready to get back to the top. Florida State is healthy, long, and athletic again. Miami has made a ton of off-season noise following an Elite Eight appearance and gets the nod for now. Stever Forbes’ Wake Forest group may have a slight talent drop-off, yet this staff can flat-out coach and we love the adjustments Wake made to its scheduling philosophy. It’s enough to warrant a First Four projection. Virginia Tech also came in with an at-large worthy evaluation here. The biggest issue? Schedule strength could end up being a thorn for the Hokies, which is enough cause for concern to make them the first team out.
Steve Forbes on scheduling this season:
Big 12
This will be the strongest league in 22-23, make no mistake about it. There’s typically a team that may have the metrics and seems NCAA-caliber on film, who misses the field due to the sheer volume of losses. That team was Oklahoma last season. Porter Moser hopes to improve on their 7-11 conference record to have a better shot this time around. We are going with six bids in the forecast: Baylor, Kansas, and Texas all have 1-seed potential. TCU isn’t far behind as a four-seed in the preseason bracket. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State round out the forecasted bids today but keep your eye on Iowa State, who many around Big 12 circles believe are being overlooked.
HC Mike Boynton and Oklahoma State were stuck in an awful situation in 21-22, by being placed on a one-year tournament ban. Redemption is on the minds of many in Stillwater.
Big East & Pac-12
Five bids to the Big East feels accurate for an 11-team league and based on recent history. The Villanova changeover at Head Coach (yes that really happened), could reduce the number of elite wins available to the rest of the Big East unless a team like Creighton, UConn, or Nova themselves can become/remain truly dominant. We certainly have these three juggernauts in the projected field along with defending regular-season champions, Providence, and Xavier. St. John’s has a talented roster and is graded out as at-large worthy. Much like Virginia Tech, the forecasted scheduling numbers for non-conference play could cost the Red Storm a bid. They are the second team out to start the season. Marquette is our dark horse pick to make a run at a bid, with way too many people sleeping on them nationally.
Out West, UCLA and Arizona remain in control of the Pac-12. Somehow Tyger Campbell and Jamie Jaquez still have eligibility! As proven and as special as both are, Pelle Larsson of Arizona may bust out in such a big way, that he may be the POY in the league. Both programs are forecasted to be very high on the seeding list. Next in order is Oregon, which is dealing with some injuries. The track record with Dana Altman suggests they will hit their stride late even if there are injuries. And USC is squeezing in. We’ve tried to doubt Andy Enfield before, and it backfired - not happening again. Call it four bids for the PAC, but certainly watch out for Stanford, both Washington schools, and Colorado - who possess decent upside. The performance of those four and Utah, Cal, and ASU can really turn the tides for the league.
American & Atlantic 10
In the AAC, we may have a national champion for the first time since Kevin Ollie and the 2014 UConn Huskies. That is correct, Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars are incredibly ferocious, skilled, and experienced. One other thing - the Final Four is in Houston. The Cougars will provide the league some extra attention this year, which is awesome for a program like Tulane. The Green Wave is forecasted to make the NCAA’s for the first time in 28 years behind the star power of Jalen Cook (highlights below). We round it out with Memphis, who will have a much older look under Penny Hardaway this season. I believe that will serve the Tigers well in the long run. Three bids here in the forecast, yet watch out for Cincinnati, Temple, and UCF.
The A-10 depth as a collective whole will be much improved with the arrival of Loyola-Chicago and expected improvements at George Mason, UMass, and perhaps Rhode Island. The Dayton Flyers have a loaded team with players ready to make developmental leaps in their performance. Malachi Smith will miss some time, however, the Flyers should be back to full strength for league play. VCU and Saint Louis are quite a bit back and are both poised to make the NCAA Tournament. That makes the forecast three total, with Loyola-Chicago very close to getting in (third team out of the bracket).
Mountain West & WCC
Well, here is one that we kind of hope the forecast got wrong. Just two bids for each of the WCC and Mountain West. Two leagues we cover a little bit more extensively, so here’s to finding a few more bids. San Diego State is in position to have a dominant year, returning Matt Bradley, Nathan Mensah, adding Darrion Trammell (via Seattle U), and a stellar supporting cast has the Aztecs dreaming big. Their conference counterparts, Wyoming, landed three Pac-12 transfers (all from LA schools) and return the core from last year with Hunter Maldonado, Graham Ike, and Xavier Dusell. Despite the injury setback to Ike, this team will have the chops we beilieve to return to the NCAA’s and be dangerous. Colorado State is missing Isaiah Stevens, which could really hurt for a while, however the Rams will still be a threat to compete for the auto-bid. Utah State should be improved, as well as New Mexico.
In the WCC, I believe BYU is being slept on a little - the incoming pieces are largely unknowns, which has its upside and downside potentials. The glue here is of course Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s. Pencil the Bulldogs in as a one-seed today and don’t look back. The Gaels have a solid combo of returning studs, intriguing new faces, and a great schedule. Outside of those three, we think San Francisco and Santa Clara will make noise this season, but for now still falling a bit short of the at-large picture. And certainly keep your eye on Portland.
Coach Brian Dutcher and the Aztecs have lofty goals in 22-23.
It’s time to reveal the predicted order finish for each of these leagues. Please be sure to track the Darkhorse pickss as well.
Without further ado, here is how I see the power conferences shaking out this year. And as always - lets all laugh about this together come April:
The Landscape (47 Bids)
Predicted order of finish for the 22-23 season.