Bracketolgy 02.22.21

BRACKET NOTES
Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.

- Iowa made the leap from the three-seed line to the two-seed line to replace Oklahoma. Iowa has really performed at a high-level lately and most of the team sheet metrics for the Hawkeyes are tremendous. On paper, I personally prefer West Virginia by the slimist of margins. But the way the committee had Iowa higher than me on Bracket Reveal Saturday, I’m swallowing my pride and placing Iowa as the last two-seed. Keep in mind, if Iowa were to stay hot (they play at Michigan and at Ohio State this week), they could actually be on the one-line very soon. Big “if” though.

- Kansas secured a season sweep over Texas Tech. With no real negatives on the Jayhawks resume, that helps elevate KU above Creighton and Missouri for the final fourth-seed today. Jayhawks were placed in Gonzaga’s region however, which probably isn’t the greatest news.

- Arkansas continues to climb, despite having theiir game postponed on Saturday. The Hogs simply have nothing bad on their resume and the metrics have really swung in their favor lately, ranking in the Top 24 in all listed team sheet metrics (KPI, POM, SOR, BPI, SAG). Just enough juice to put them above a Clemson team still lacking a significant road win. That win at Mizzou is paying big seeding dividends for the Razorbacks right now.

- The 9-thru-11 lines are pretty messy. I also have Oregon mixed in with this bunch, UO is taking the final eight-seed for now. Maryland has the incredibly unbalanced resume, but also posess tremendous wins on the road - the committee likes this, especially for seeding. UCLA and North Carolina certainly have resume flaws in quadrant records, but a further look shows excellent SOR numbers and enough achieved on the road to be slightly above the rest of the pack. This is a razor thin group in general. Loyola-Chicago is a tempting team to move up above the likes of UNC or UCLA, but historically their profile warrants a lower seed due to the mostly empty calories in high-end wins. The 10-seed line provides the Ramblers a balanced projection within the ranges of possibilities, and the good news (if it happens) this is a much higher liklihood for the Ramblers to advance to the second weekend.

- Per usual, the final spots were very difficult to settle on. Trying to simulate a committee debate between Stanford and Minnesota is not simple, for example. Half the room can lean on Stanford’s ridiculous circumstances this season and the work they’ve done away from Maples Pavilion (nearly all of it). The other half of the room can argue about how the Gophers beat Michigan, Ohio State, and Iowa (although 0-8 road record). For me it comes down to which team provided more reasons to leave them out? And right now, I think that’s Minnesota. Furthermore, the Gophers would lose out to St. Bonaventure in a similar debate, I believe.

TIEBREAKER MADNESS
Each league is taking their own approach to tiebreakers for their conference tournament seeding. And it’s more messy than many of you care to explore. I don’t blame you. I think I’ve managed to at least get a grip on a few of these and ideally the next couple of weeks will sort out most of the tough ties. The main focus today is on the Atlantic 10. St. Bonaventure and VCU are both 9-3, UMass is 6-2. They have matching win percentages. But the conference will prefer the team with the most games played, which knock UMass out of the running for number-one. The next tiebreaker is record against common opponents Which became a ridiculous exercise in itself, I went clear down the A10 standings until finally landing on George Mason (who just beat VCU, but lost to the Bonnie) to determine that the top seed would be the Bonnies today.

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
ACC - Florida State
America East - UMBC
Atlantic 10 - St. Bonaventure
MAAC - Monmouth
Summit - South Dakota

Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (AAC, Wichita State)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Minnesota, UConn, Richmond, Duke
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Saint Louis, Georgia Tech, St. John's, Utah State
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Bracketology 02.19.21

BRACKET NOTES - Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.

- Oklahoma has temporarily benefited with the Houston loss to Wichita State. The Sooners, West Virginia and Iowa are now positioned above Houston in seeding order. OU comes in as the final two-seed today and matched up with Southland leaders, Sam Houston State, which is a fun Southwest flavored opener. Houston is still fairly safe as a three-seed and have a stronger resume than Virginia at this point. Today, the Cougars draw a matchup against Colgate.

- Florida State made another big statement at home on Monday by beating Virginia. The only thing holding FSU back from getting higher than any of the Big 12 teams above them, is a lack of information on road games. FSU has the nice win at Louisville, but are just 1-2 overall. Until they can demonstrate a bit more away from home, it will be hard to reach the nirvana of the top eight or so.

- USC continues to steamroll through the Pac-12. The main thing holding the Trojans back is a lack of top-end opportunities.

- Maryland is back in the field after sweeping Nebraska. The Terps are now two games over .500 vs. D1 competition, but also have Rutgers on Sunday. Makes their case unique. Maryland has the top-end wins to skyrocket past the bubble in terms of seeding. You’ll notice they are a nine-seed today because of that. But they are on thin ice for selection still. A clear delineation between selection and seeding. In other words, Terps fans should not worry about Maryland playing in the First Four. They are either in with a nice seed or entirely out. Remaining schedule is favorable, so hopes and expectations are high here.

- Minnesota is the team that needs to be really looked at hard. The committee will always value what you do away from home, and selection committee Chairman Mitch Barnhardt confirmed this year is no different on the air. The Gophers are 0-8 on the road with only one true road game left, at Penn State in early March. Trying to simulate the discussion in the committee room about the Gophers is a fun thought. I think you can make strong cases for inclusion (wins over two number-one seeds and only team to beat Michigan thus far and over Iowa at the Barn), so the debate would be hot and heavy in that room. I see the Gophers still being invited for now, but very thin ice - for completely different reasons than Maryland.

- The first eight teams out: UConn, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis, Utah State, Richmond, Wichita State (in as AAC leader today), St. John’s and Ole Miss all have an argument right now to be included. I still believe Stanford’s resume with their ridiculous journey this year is still a notch above these eight in terms of achievement. So the Cardinal remain in the field.

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
America East - Vermont
American - Wichita State
Mountain West - Boise State
NEC - Wagner

Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (AAC, Wichita State)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: UConn, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis, Utah State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Richmond, St. John's, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech

THE DRAW - HEADLINERS

• (8) Louisville vs. (9) Indiana. Regional rivals, tons of history.

• First Four: Drake vs. North Carolina. Cinderella type story vs. Blue Blood program for a spot in the main bracket.

• (5) USC vs. (12) Belmont. Evan Mobley vs. Nick Musczynski in the paint. Andy Enfield coached in the same conference (ASUN) as Belmont back in 2011-12.

• (4) Florida State vs. (13) Wright State. Battle of two teams who can completely catch fire.

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Bracketology 02.16.21

Can you believe the first conference tournament will begin next Thursday, February 25th? Thats right. The Horizon League will kick off perhaps our longest “Championship Week” ever by hosting the 5 thru 12 seeds participating in play-in rounds. The league wisely added a buffer in case they need additional time for make up games. I don’t know that I’m ready for teams seasons to start ending so quickly, but it always happens so fast. All we can do is enjoy the ride.

BRACKET REVEAL RECAP
This past Saturday, the actual Selection Committee formalized their Top 16 teams and had Dan Gavitt alongside Mitch Barnhardt (Committee Chair) answer a few questions about the selections. Here at Bracketeer.org, we did pretty well. Had the Top 16 all identified correctly, and mainly thought more of Missouri than Oklahoma. Not a major miss there, as they were swapped between three and four seed lines. Here is how it went down:

Current #MarchMadness Top 16 Seeds!

1. Gonzaga
2. Baylor
3. Michigan
4. Ohio St.
5. Illinois
6. Villanova
7. Alabama
8. Houston
9. Virginia
10. West Virginia
11. Tennessee
12. Oklahoma
13. Iowa
14. Texas Tech
15. Texas
16. Missouri#BracketPreview pic.twitter.com/FQzZxQ1rea

— NCAA March Madness (@marchmadness) February 13, 2021

A main takeaway for me is that Oklahoma is strong in top-end wins (over Bama, at Texas and now adding at West Virginia). The Sooners also have important home wins over Kansas and West Virginia to go along with no bad losses. But OU is just 5-5 overall against the top quadrant and 6-5 against the top two. Missouri had wins at Tennessee and at Arkansas, to go along with big wins over Illinois, Bama and Oregon (neutral). Yet the Tigers have slipped against non-tournament foes (both Mississippi schools and Auburn). This tells me that the committee not only likes the top-end wins but they are also pay attention perhaps to who you lose to.

Houston and Virginia came in 8th and 9th respectively, same as where we had them. UH is lighter on opportunities and lost twice to non-tourney foes (Tulsa and ECU on the road). The Cougars do have strong metrics though and wins over Texas Tech on neutral court, a win over Boise State and a sweep of SMU. Virginia was missing, and still is missing a Quad 1A win to anchor with. The Cavs best win is at Clemson which is in 1B currently and they have a single non-tournament foe loss to San Francisco. UVA also is slightly below Houston in most metrics as well, and two games behind the Cougars in total record vs. top three quadrants. All of this was just enough, to keep Houston on the two-seed line.

How all of this impacts team comparisons down bracket remains somewhat of a mystery, but at least we have more information to work with than before. Besides, five of the 16 have already lost since the show. Other key confirmations where road wins and overall principles will be unaffected this season, despite no crowds and varying extremes in schedules/games played. Full speed ahead to March!

BRACKET NOTES - Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.

- Seed lines five thru eight went through a shake-up. I think USC is at a point where the need to be above teams like Kansas and Virginia Tech, because the Trojans are winning at a higher clip - especially on the road. And those wins matter. Arkansas picked up the perfect win for a team that had no bad on the resume, but was lacking a tourney-caliber win. Not only did the Hogs get that win, they got it on the road. In turn, the Razorbacks shot past the entire bubble picture and on to the eight-seed line.

- Loyola-Chicago took a leap of faith over the weekend, despite splitting at Drake. Allow me to explain, as this is an area often confused with the selection and seeding process. As of Friday, the Ramblers were my first team out. My view was that the resume needed a strong win to anchor with. Loyola has that now, and everything about their predictive metrics fly off the shelf. Ramblers are up to number 37 on the big board and can probably afford another loss, depending on who its against and by how much. Also, we have made the swift move to call the Ramblers the official MVC leader now. That leaves Drake hanging on to a spot in the play-in game.

- The final spot was really difficult between St. Bonaventure and UConn. I think there is a case to be made for each. Bonnies have a “clean” resume right now, no losses to frown on outside of the top two quadrants. UConn can’t boast that, but the Huskies do have better road wins and the injury case with Bouknight. We will stick with St. Bonaventure until further notice, but this is really tight. Also, remember that Utah State is currently stealing an at-large bid away. So if that were not happening, we would have room for both (not likely). Keep in mind, an average of 2.4 at-large bids per year are stolen during Championship Week. So hoping for none or one is typically unrealistic.

- New quality metrics teams are entering as Conference leaders today. Between Wright State, UCSB, and Colgate, we have a trio of talented rosters. If these three get in the tournament, entertainment value increases and 4/5 seeds are in for a scare or worse.

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
A10 - VCU
Big West - UC Santa Barbara
CAA - James Madison
CUSA - Western Kentucky
Horizon - Wright State
MVC - Loyola-Chicago
NEC - Mount St. Mary’s
Patriot - Colgate
Summit - North Dakota State

Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (MWC, Utah State)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: UConn, Richmond, Saint Louis, St. John's
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Ole Miss, Maryland, Georgia Tech, SMU
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Bracketology 02.12.21

Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
America East - UMBC
NEC - Bryant
SoCon - UNC Greensboro

Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 2 (Conference USA and MWC, UAB & Utah State)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Loyola-Chicago, Richmond, St. John's, Saint Louis
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Maryland, UConn, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @roccomiller8

Bracketology 02.09.21

DREAMS DASHED
We witnessed some high drama over the weekend. Drake got two stiff tests at sub-200 (NET) Valparaiso and fell way short on Sunday en route to their first loss. The pressure was mounting for Drake, who has been playing with unprecedented attention this season, maybe now the Bulldogs can get things rolling again. Boise State was swept at sub-100 Nevada, and suddenly are in danger. Indiana completed a sweep of percieved powerhouse Iowa. What did this do to each of these teams’ tourney hopes? We will address these topics and more in today’s Bracketogy forecast.

FINAL WEEK OF COMMITTEE MYSTERY
A tradition that Bracketologists are embracing more each year is the CBS Bracket Preview Show. This week the NCAA Selection Committee will meet for a couple of days, presumably over Zoom this year, to disccus who the top 16 teams on the Seed List should be. They select the teams, then seed them and bracket them in the same manner as the group will do next month. It is a sneak peak for the College Basketball community for what to expect in March. I mostly appreciate how this exercise will reveal how the committee is comparing teams and what they value most. Last season, they had Dayton fifth overall, when I had them ninth. It immediately told me they were rewarding a strong NET and other predictive metrics. The KPI, POM, SAG, BPI, SOR are all listed on the team sheet as well, which favored the Flyers. Perhaps that team this year is the Houston Cougars. UH has two road losses in conference to non-tourney teams (Tulsa and ECU). Outside of that, UH has beaten everyone including Texas Tech, Boise State, and SMU twice. Where the committee places the Cougars could go a long way in revealing what things look like further down the bracket. Until Saturday, I will continue beating down my preferred evaluation path based on more foundational history with many of the same sitting committee members.

BRACKET NOTES - Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.

- We have another flip/flop in the top overall spot and it is closer than ever. Gonzaga’s win last night over BYU combined with Baylor’s recent program pause has allowed the Zags to narrowly pass the Bears at this moment. Baylor’s schedule is much tougher down the stretch, and they continue to control their number-one overall seed destiny. Today however, Gonzaga has two more wins (11-0) away/neutral, and has more wins in each of the quadrants, and a narrow KenPom lead (if that means something to the committee).

- Oklahoma continues to surge up the pecking order, landing this morning in the 12th position - good for the final third-seeded team. Sooners compare favorably to the teams below them with the strength of their top end wins. In the Big 12, life is rough and OU keeps treading well above water. Iowa took a fall down to the four-seed line after being swept by Indiana. Hawkeyes continued to slip in throughout this exercise, there just is not a ton to like about the resume. Fortunately, the NET remains strong at nine and Iowa has more chances to prove everyone wrong.

- Purdue continues to live large as long as Ohio State stays a high end seed. The Boilers sweep of the Buckeyes plus a road win over Indiana is carrying a lot of weight today. But is not guranteed forever. Purdue fans need to continue rooting for the Buckeyes, strangely.

- Two peculiar resumes really stand out: Creighton and Clemson. The Jays have three Q3 home losses to go along with a stellar 9-2 record vs. the top two quadrants. And Clemson simply cannot get much done away from Littlejohn Coliseum lately. The Tigers have been dismantled in each of their past three road contests. With all of that said, these two find themselves on the seven-seed line today.

- Seton Hall and Indiana made important moves over the weekend to solidify themselves into today’s bracket. Both the Pirates and Hoosiers are playing with an age-old Selection Committee unspoken rule: no team less than two games over .500 have been selected as an at-large bid. Will the committee make any exceptions this year? It remains to be determined. For now, all projections are based on that still being the case. SHU and IU can breathe easy for a moment. The good news for each program is if they are both selected, they will likely be seeded well above the bubble, as they each have excellent wins thus far.

- With Utah State in first place, a bid was stolen. A bid that would have gone to VCU. The first five teams out of the field today are on the cusp of making it happen: VCU, Loyola-Chicago, Richmond, UConn and Saint Louis. A few teams included in the field today have substantial remaining work to do to feel safe. LSU and Arkansas are two that stand out with a real lack of tourney caliber wins, and are really just hanging on with their metrics for now.

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Big Sky - Eastern Washington
MWC - Utah State
NEC - Fairleigh Dickinson
SoCon - Wofford
Summit - South Dakota
Sun Belt - Texas State

Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 2 (Conference USA and MWC, UAB & Utah State)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: VCU, Loyola-Chicago, Richmond, UConn
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Saint Louis, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @roccomiller8