BRACKET NOTES
If recent history serves us well, we only really have seven days til the committee wraps up their business. In recent years, they have built contingency brackets for any bid steal scenarios prior to Selection Sunday. In fact, in 2019 the committee confirmed that the Pac-12 Championship Game (which started at 10PM ET) had no impact on seeding. So we truly are down to the final chances for teams to impress the committee on this final regular season Saturday for the larger leagues.
You will notice San Diego State and Loyola-Chicago are both on the rise. Should they each secure their conference tournaments (Ramblers are two wins away), I fully envision them to land on the seven-seed line. Here’s why: Mainly a lot of power conference at-large teams are in their way today. The majority of said teams will remain at-large teams and not win their conference auto-bid. The committee would likely prefer to vote the a double-champion Aztec and Rambler team to not go into an 8/9 matchup. The 2019 bracket saw two of the four number-seven seeds go to automatic bids: Cincinnati and Wofford.
Western Kentucky’s home loss against Old Dominion last night may have doomed the Hilltoppers out of the at-large picture. They still have a resume worth discussing, and we will see how the Conference USA tournament goes - but the Hilltopper predictive metrics are in very dangerous territory. The Tops are at 92 in KenPom for example. Not good.
Colorado State lost a heartbreaker at Nevada last night. It does hurt to a certain degree, however I still prefer to select the Rams resume over Boise State and Xavier by a narrow margin. CSU and BSU have significant road wins, Xavier does not. BSU has the brutal home loss to Fresno State, which I believe puts them at greater risk of exclusion than the Rams, as it stands this morning.
What’s on tap Saturday?
-Illinois at Ohio State: Winner in great shape for final one-seed, particularly if Illinois wins.
-Rutgers at Minnesota: Scarlet Knights will be selected if they win today or their first B1G Tournament game. Probably best to beat a struggling Gopher program and get it done.
- Oklahoma State at West Virginia: No Cade Cunningham today for the Cowboys, which gives the Mountaineers a golden opportunity gatther another key win and take the final two-seed.
- A10 Semifinals: Massive day for Saint Louis, a win would prove they can beat a tournament team away from home and check an important box missing on the Billiken resume. Bonnies are playing well, and don’t want to land near the bubble by losing. A win for the Bonnies will put them in near-lock status. Davidson recently beat VCU, and it creates an intriguing semifinal. VCU should mostly be safe, win or lose.
- USC at UCLA: Battle of LA should be fun. USC can add another road win to their resume and climb. A UCLA win would alleviate any concerns about selection.
- LSU at Missouri: LSU could really use another road win on the resume. They’ve had some major road meltdowns this season. Mizzou is coming off a big win at Florida, have a chance at a protected seed.
- Virginia at Louisville: The Cardinals have been hurt by shutdowns and cancellations. An opportunity to prove once and for all that they belong in the field. For UVA, they still have opportunities to move up - another quality road win would help significantly.
- Xavier at Marquette: The Musketeers have a chance to add one more road win. Pressure is on today.
- Villanova at Providence: Friars are pretty much done, the main story is how will Villanova perform in their first full game without Connor Gillespie. Should anything alarming happen, it could impact the selection committee on seeding.
- Duke at North Carolina: Must win for Duke to get a deeper look at an at-large.
- Seton Hall at St. John’s: Winner gets a deeper look, loser likely needs to win the Big East Tournament or at least reach the Finals for reconsideration.
- Indiana at Purdue: Hoosiers are pretty much toast, but a win here plus three wins at the B1G Tourney likely gives them the hail mary for selection. Purdue looks to maintain their current protected seed status.
- Arch Madness: Loyola-Chicago should be in even if they lose against Indiana State again today. All eyes will be on Drake as they take on Missouri State. Drake is shorthanded (no Penn or Hemphill) and the Bears have won eight of their last nine.
- Old Dominion at Western Kentucky: The rematch. Another loss by WKU would give ODU the top-seed in the East Division. At 12-4, ODU and West Division winners, Louisiana Tech would be co-champions. WKU can avoid all of this by simply winning and clinching the East.
- Vanderbilt at Ole Miss: Clearly the Rebels cannot afford to lose this game. Interestingly, a win finally gets the Rebels up to .500 against the top-three quadrants at 10-10. Would make them a bit more attractive to the committee.
- SoCon Quarterfinals: Top-seed UNC-Greensboro takes on The Citadel. Spartans handled them twice in the regular season by double-digits each time.
- OVC Championship: Belmont takes on Morehead State. Belmont has been the dominant team all year, but did lose to Morehead State without Nick Musczynski last week. If Morehead State wins, I expect them to land at a 14-seed.
- Alabama at Georgia: Tide destroyed Georgia in the first meeting. Just avoid a loss in this situation to prevent any talk of dropping to a three-seed.
- Stephen F. Austin at Sam Houston State: Bearkats can clinch the top-seed in the Southland Tournament and a share of the championship with a win today. Should be a great game. Finale for SFA, who is not eligible to compete in the conference tournament.
- Patriot League Quarters: Navy takes on Loyola-Maryland in a fun matchup. Santi Aldama is the most talented player in the Patriot, but Navy is clearly one of the best teams. Could be pretty interesting.
- NEC Semifinals: Top-seed Wagner hosts Mount St. Mary’s. Wagner swept the season series on the road and the Seahawks are red hot - winning 11 out of their past 12.
- Utah Valley at Grand Canyon: Wolverines won last night, which gives them the first place edge today. Winner take all game tonight for the regular season championship.
- America East Semifinals: UMBC hosts UMass-Lowell. First meeting between the clubs this season. Riverhawks match up well defensively, could be a chess match of a game.
- Sun Belt Quarters: Texas State is matched up with Appalachian State. ASU comes in after eliminating Little Rock. Could be pretty interesting game, only separted by less than 40 spots in KenPom.
- Summit League Quarters: South Dakota State takes on Omaha. Jackrabbits should roll. Interestingly, the two haven’t played each other yet.
- Southern Utah at Portland State: SUU looks to hold on to first place in game two against the Vikings. Could be a tricky game, PSU has been tough in game two’s this season.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
WAC - Utah Valley
Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly unlikely, annual average is 2.4 per season)
