Bracketology

Bracketology 03.05.22

Ahead of an action-packed Saturday, here is today’s Bracket Forecast.

 

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR OUT: SMU, BYU, Loyola-Chicago, Florida,
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Indiana, Oregon, Virginia, Dayton
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.01.22

INTRO

Saturday. Oh baby, what a Saturday! A colossal meltdown by a high percentage of the best teams in the sport: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, Auburn, Kansas, Purdue all fell victims on the road. That is just the high-end carnage. Several other key results helped define today’s bracket forecast.

A complete reset was required and a fresh set of eyes on over 100 different NCAA Tournament hopefuls went into today’s forecast. The bottom line is this: We have eight or nine days until the committee will officially begin meetings and conduct voting. Some teams will not play a significant opponent between now and then. Others will play multiple significant games. As an example, Arch Madness is this week and all eyes will be on how the bubbling Loyola Ramblers perform. The variables remaining are plenty, but the days are not.

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Prior to diving into the bracket forecast, two very busy weeks are ahead. If you enjoy the work on this site, you will likely enjoy some deeper bracket talk coming too.

  • Fielding the 68 Show by FIELD of 68.- Every Monday and Friday at 6 PM ET. I will be on this Friday. A composite seed list will also be available on Mon, Wed, Fri this week.

  • Hoops HD - Championship Week - For the diehards. I will be on a panel most of the next two weeks reviewing and previewing each day of Championship Week. Also, visit HoopsHD.com for thorough Championship Week coverage, a Survival Board for teams being eliminated, and Conference Tournament brackets. (Linked is the Day 0 Episode with a quick prelude)

  • CBB Mock Selection Committee - Begins on Thursday! Be sure to sign up for the Zoom Link. This is the first year partnering with Stadium’s Tim Krueger and well-known Bracketologists Dave Ommen of Bracketville, Lukas Harkins of HeatCheckCBB, Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report, and Shelby Mast of the USA Today. Should be very educational for College Hoops lovers and people in the industry.

TOP SEEDS

Due to all of the shakeups, a careful examination was conducted here. The four top-seeds were not easy to determine. I even tried several angles at the Kentucky argument, but still just a little short until they get one more elite win away from Rupp or see one of these teams lose again.

The four top-seeds are Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas, and Arizona. The Bears became the largest benficiary by a wide margin following Saturday’s upsets. Baylor wins out over Kansas in nearly every comparable area, most importantly in wins over the field away from home (5).

Duke was also a team who benefited. They were able to bypass Purdue for now and I believe they are very close to passing Auburn in the pecking order. A safe two-seed for a team that the Selection Committee has already shown love for.

The Wisconsin Badgers are a team getting a lot of attention. Rightfully so. The Badgers have an unbelievable 11 wins against the forecasted field (includes RU and IU wins) and lead the nation with 12 away/neutral wins. It’s a resume that is so shiny on the top but the downside here is the home losses to Rutgers, MSU, and Providence. The losses at home stand out and likely play into the predictive metrics being lower (24.33 Average ranking). They do come in as the best 3-seed today as you have to appreciate what they’ve done when even compared to the juggernauts of Texas Tech, Villanova, and Tennessee (the next in teams inline).

Arkansas replaces Ohio State in the Top 16. In fact the Hogs positioned themselves to also jump ahead of UCLA to get to 15th overall. Four Quad 1A wins and a winning record at every level of the quadrant measurements combined with strong metrics helped make this decision.

MIDDLE SEEDS

Saint Mary’s is firmly in the five-six seed range after picking up the 10-point win over Gonzaga. The Gaels may get the chance to play Gonzaga again next week should both win in the Semifinal round. A second win gets them into the protected seed discussion.

It’s somewhat messy in the seven to eight seed range and I’ve doubled down a bit on looking at some of the quality metrics more to help separate these teams. The committee did this last season and I continue to lean on that example. The Iowa State’s and Marquette’s of the world would be disappointed with this I am sure, but this is why it’s an educated forecast.

Wyoming’s loss at home to San Diego State raises a few eyebrows about its body of work. The Cowboys still have a cluster of good road wins, but none came against projected tournament teams. The two wins the Cowboys do have against the projected field are both at Home (Colorado State and Boise State).

BUBBLE

The Final seven teams in order on the selected list are Miami, Notre Dame, Memphis, VCU, North Carolina, SMU, and Michigan.

Miami’s Jim Larranaga is looking for at least one more Tournament run before he closes the book on his career. The 11-seed has defined his legacy, as the 2006 Head man at George Mason. Larranaga’s Canes were also defeated by 11-seed Loyola-Chicago in the first round when Sister Jean & co. went all the way to the final four. So funny enough that the Canes are a projected 11-seed here in March.

The Hurricanes are on the most solid ground for getting in, thanks to a marquee road win at Duke and supplemental wins by sweeping Wake Forest, defeating North Texas in Orlando, and a home win over UNC. It’s an excellent collection of wins that helps Miami withstand some very shaky metrics. Notre Dame has also established themselves to a lesser degree by owning a mix of an elite win (Kentucky) and mix of other tourney-level wins (At Miami, UNC) combined with three total road wins in the top two quads with only one bad loss (at Boston College).

Memphis finds themselves in for now again and for now, just need to keep winning. A win this next weekend against Houston will likely put the Tigers over the top for good. A loss this weekend would set the stage for an anxious week at the AAC Tournament. SMU is guaranteed to be sweating out the AAC Tournament after their loss to Houston last weekend. The Ponies really need to take care of business this week vs. Cincinnati and Tulane at home.

North Carolina is just sitting there still right in the bubble mix. Very simple to select them, but UNC offers nothing special to like. Their only win against a team in or near the field is the home win over Michigan. They failed in each attempt to beat Notre Dame, Wake Forest, and Miami. Unfortunately for the Heels, only played each one time and all on the road. A win at Duke this weekend would almost certainly punch their ticket. Otherwise, they will still be sitting in this same spot next week. Giving other teams the chance to pass them by and send them to the NIT. Also, keep in mind that UNC swept Virginia Tech. If VT inches closer and closer to the right side of the bubble - that actually HELPS North Carolina. Heels fans are now Hokies fans, what a world.

Indiana and Rutgers find themselves absent from the bracket for very different reasons. Indiana is a difficult team to select for two primary reasons: 8-10 record against the top three quadrants and the 340+ OOC Schedule. As for Rutgers, a team that possesses a ton of big wins in Big Ten play, they are still at 10-11 in games vs. top three Quadrants and their own NET has slipped to a very concerning 83rd. NET history is brief, as it just launched in 2019. To date no team lower than 73rd has recieved an At Large.

With that said about IU and Rutgers, I felt compelled to include Michigan to get the B1G at least one of the three into the field. The Wolverines played a far tougher schedule and have done just enough to warrant an invite to Dayton.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely, Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken)

FIRST FOUR OUT: Indiana, BYU, Florida, Loyola-Chicago
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Rutgers, Oregon, St. Bonaventure, Virginia
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.25.22

Check back on Mondays for a full analysis and blog post on the Bracket. Feel free to check last Monday’s post for a good feel on where teams started this week.

Quick Recap of the Mid-Week

  1. Texas Tech continues to win at a high level and I felt good enough to put the Red Raiders on the 2-seed line today. The six Quad 1A wins compared to Duke’s two is a healthy advantage. The comparison remains close due to the Committee’s love for Duke last weekend and Duke’s excellent top-end wins (Zags, Kentucky) and road/neutral record of 9-2. Duke’s three losses in Quad 2B or worse demonstrate some instability at the end of the H2H comparison.

  2. Ohio State’s win at Illinois last night was an impressive performance. A cluster of teams is now mixed into a group for the final two spots in the Top 16: UCLA, Ohio State, Arkansas, Houston, Texas, and UConn. Today, the Bruins and Buckeyes have the edge due to the three Q1A wins apiece. UConn also has collected three but is a bit weighed down slightly due to the Huskies’ sub-.500 record in Quad 1 (5-6). The Razorbacks can claim three as well, however, two of those were at Bud Walton Arena and the overall wins against the projected field number remains just those three wins in totality. Texas (2) and Houston (0) have beautiful predictive metrics but less substance to offer.

  3. Oregon’s sweep of UCLA launched themselves barely above the cutline, as you may have noticed on the Big Board

  4. Highlights from the pivotal Buckeye road win in Champaign:

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR OUT: VCU, North Carolina, Indiana, BYU
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Dayton, Florida, Virginia, St. Bonaventure
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.21.22

College Basketball has gone by at a rapid pace from where I am sitting. Here we are on February 21st and just 20 short days away from Selection Sunday. Fortunately, a ton of crucial games are either scheduled to be played or will inevitably happen in conference tournaments to help us fine tune the Bracket Forecasts just in time to give you the best understanding of what the committee is likely discussing on each part of the bracket.

Keep in mind that the first balloting process will likely conclude prior to Friday, March 11th action. The first ballot selects the top 32 teams in the field regardless of conference championships being concluded or not. Many will be in progress. That kicks off the next set of balloting to see where teams get stacked ranked, selected, and eventually seeded. A lot of the bracket work you see done here on the forecast, is all put together with this in mind. We should be able to draw a line on the Top 32.

This past Saturday, the actual NCAA Selection Committee put together a Bracket Preview Show that included the Top 16 Teams and a Regional preview. Here were the results:

Bracketeer’s forecast was pretty spot on. Duke and Villanova flipped for the final 2-seed and Illinois and Wisconsin flipped between the 3-seed lines and 4-seed lines, when comparing the Committee work to Bracketeer.Org. The Top 16 as a whole was correctly forecasted, which was a positive reassurance that my understanding of the process and presumed priorities of the committee are mostly in line.

REST OF THE SEED SUMMARY

MIDDLE SEEDS

One team that had perhaps the best shot to get into the Top 16, but didnt, is ranked fourth in the NET. That’s the Houston Cougars, who went out and won a road Ovetime game at Wichita State this weekend. With Texas suffering a home loss, Houston now has just enough to be ahead of Texas on the 4-seed line today.

Arkansas continues to build and build its resume. A 10-point home win over Tennessee is the latest big Hogs victory. The quality metrics agree that the Hogs are Top 20 team, averaging out at 19.33 across three ranking tools. This should give Arkansas the excellent opportunity to be a 5-seed, their highest projection of the season.

BUBBLE

The Indiana Hoosiers find themselves in the deep end of the ocean without much support. The cruel reality is that the Hoosiers have just the Notre Dame win on a neutral court and a single road-win (at Maryland) to show for their body of work away from Bloomington. Hoosiers will get two road chances this week, beginning with Ohio State tonight and Minnesota this coming Sunday. IU is also just 8-9 vs. the Top 3 Quadrants with a 313th ranked non-conference strength of schedule. With five games to go plus the B1G Tourney, IU likely needs a total of four wins out of the next six contests to help balance that. A marquee win, like at Ohio State Monday, would help tremendously.

North Texas continues to win at a compelling rate. UNT finds themselves 20-4 and winners of 12 in a row. Perhaps I am in the minority of many other bracketologists, but I have a deep respect for teams that can win in leagues like CUSA at this rate, with all of the tough travel demands and Thursday-Saturday week-to-week format. The Mean Green have navigated this wonderfully. A thrilling road win at UAB was the icing on the cake. The way they took this win away from UAB late will sting the Blazers for days to come. Here is how it ended:

On the outside looking in today for the first time all season is BYU. The Cougars’ loss to Saint Mary’s, of course is not a bad loss at all. But we’ve reached a juncture in which things are not going BYU’s way any longer when compared to other teams. BYU’s win over Oregon is not as shiny at the current moment, because of the Ducks current three-game losing streak and being well off the cutline for now. That knocked BYU down to three wins against the field instead of four. Also, the quad records are shakier today. BYU is 7-8 vs. the top two Quadrants and that is a tough spot. Not to mention, the Strength of Resume metric has dipped into the ’60s (now 64). All signs say NIT for now. This can improve however if BYU closes with the two home wins and gets a quality win or two in the WCC Tournament.

AUTO BIDS

Both Vermont and Cleveland State have now clinched the regular-season title in each of their respective leagues. Major kudos to each. Vermont has ruined America East competition. Catamounts have skyrocketed to #62 in the NET thanks to their uber-efficient play. Cleveland State has hung tough despite a few bumps in the road lately. Coach Dennis Gates has a hungry and veteran team. The Horizon League Tournament will be a battle, but at least for CSU, they start in the top posititon to advance.

Princeton re-enters the field this morning after a revenge win over Yale. The Tigers have a potent offensive attack and are a threat should they get to the NCAA’s.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR OUT: North Carolina, Michigan, Florida, Virginia
NEXT TEAMS OUT: BYU, Belmont, Dayton, Kansas State
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.11.22

Check back on Mondays for a full analysis and blog post on the Bracket. Feel free to check last Monday’s post for a good feel on where teams started this week.

Quick Recap of the Mid-Week
Purdue getting demolished in Ann Arbor really shifted a number of things during the selection and seeding process.

  1. Purdue would have remained a One-seed today and had the chance to move above Auburn with a win last night. Clearly, that was not in the cards.

  2. The loss and subsequent drops in several metrics, caused the Boilers to slip down to seventh overall on the seed-list and a clear two-seed.

  3. Michigan launched themselves above the cutline, as you may have noticed on the Big Board

  4. Highlights:

It’s not very often, that one game in February can impact both the top of the board and the cutline all in one. But last night was a perfect storm.

Also, take a look at Saint Louis. They did nothing wrong by blowing out La Salle this week and the Billikens were fourth out on Monday. So what happened?

  • We lost one of the bids, due to Northern Iowa being in the position to win the MVC. Also, this is a good practice regardless, because chances are high we will have a bid stolen during actual Championship Week.

  • Next, SLU witnessed Michigan, SMU, and Virginia capture landmark victories that completely upgraded their profiles.

  • Lastly, West Virginia beat Iowa State which gave the Mountaineers an additional win above the field.

All and all, the Bills did nothing wrong - yet slipped from the fourth team out to the ninth team out. A true microcosm for how well the bubble has performed lately.

The 16th and final protected seed (last of the four-seeds) was a difficult choice between Marquette, Tennessee, or Texas. Marquette has the best wins but also has some dicey metrics by comparison. The Vols are shining with a Top 10 quality metric and Strength of Record rating. For today, the Vols get the nod but have to travel to Buffalo.

 

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (MVC, Northern Iowa)

FIRST FOUR OUT: North Carolina, Belmont, San Diego State, West Virginia
NEXT TEAMS OUT: SMU, Florida, UAB, Virginia
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

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