Bracketology

Bracketology 03.10.22

WAKE FOREST/XAVIER

We are diving in head first this morning. Wake Forest and Xavier happened to both lose overtime games to non-tournament teams, Boston College and Butler, respectively.

Wake Forest has the 338th ranked Out of Conference schedule and their best away wins are against Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Florida State, none of whom are going to the tournament as of now. There are nine wins against Quadrant 4 that you can likely ignore. So what’s left?

An overall 14-9 record with three of the nine losses in Quad 2B or worse. A total of two wins over tournament teams, both at home vs. North Carolina and Notre Dame. A total of four losses to non-tournament teams (neutral vs. BC yesterday and at Louisville are the Q3 losses). Wake just simply doesn’t have enough to get in at this point it seems. And any power conference team with this poor of a schedule is typically dismissed when dangerously close to the cut-line. Sorry Deacons fans, it was a great year but a likely trip to the NIT is ahead.

Xavier is a squad that has been ice cold. The ways in which they blew yesterday’s loss to Butler, was pretty staggering, and after Paul Scruggs fouled out the writing was on the wall. So where do the Musketeers stand?

Xavier played a much more respectable schedule than Wake Forest did, and only had four games land in Quadrant 4. The remaining record for Xavier is 14-13. A tough record to stomach when compared to other teams and no high-quality away wins (upper half of seed list). They had three losses that were Quad 2B or worse: The Butler game yesterday and both DePaul and St. John’s at Home. The Musketeers did get one road win at a tournament team - Creighton to go along with Q2 road wins at Butler and DePaul. The Musketeers won a total of five games against tournament-worthy teams, which is much stronger than Wake Forest. They lost a total of four games to non-tournament teams. So in my view, you can still see Xavier get selected. But my very last team in and a good week from Dayton or Indiana or others or any bid thief sends them to the NIT.

THURSDAY - ON TAP

Thursday of Championship Week is so special and critical. The selection committee has now been meeting for over 24 hours and Thursday really represents the last guaranteed chance to make a statement. The closer to Sunday we get, the less likely that anything will change with the committee voting unless there is a major upset or shakeup. This applies to seeding mainly. The selection process is still carefully looked at thru the weekend for the 36 at-large selections.

For the Bubble, Wyoming is still in the first four today. They play UNLV, and we will have live coverage for you!

In the event, UNLV wins - I believe Wyoming will be on thin ice. But perhaps remain above Xavier. That will be interesting to compare if we land there. The other element is the Rebels themselves. UNLV along with Utah State and Fresno State are really talented enough to win this entire tournament and take a bid away. Clearly, that would hurt Wyoming dearly. UNLV is playing hot now as well, just a ton of intrigue going into this game for bracket lovers.

The Indiana Hoosiers play Michigan. A Wolverines team who is likely safe now after another crucial road win last weekend at Ohio State. Indiana likely needs to not only beat Michigan but also Illinois to reach the field. The reason? IU is just 11-12 when you take away Quad 4. None of those results will reach Quad 3. So I believe they need to get at least to a .500 record (13-13) and to do that they need two wins.

Notre Dame will take on Virginia Tech. This adds some real intrigue as the Irish are feeling a tiny bit better after the Wake Forest/Xaver saga. Irish do want to get this win to ensure selection. For Virginia Tech, they can actually add a quality win against a tourney-level team. The Hokies can get a little more of a look with a win tomorrow, however, I feel they are still pretty far away at this stage.

Creighton takes on Marquette. Interestingly, this is a huge relief for the Jays. They will not have the risk of losing to a non-tournament team and should get in regardless of the result. However, a trip to Dayton could definitely be in order if Creighton loses early here.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish need to beat Virginia Tech in order to feel this good again and ensure a bid.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely, Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken)

FIRST FOUR OUT: Dayton, BYU, Indiana, Wake Forest
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Florida, Virginia, Oregon, Virginia Tech
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.08.22

The final Tuesday of Bracket projection season is here. Can you believe it? Neither can I.

The past four days contained an extended thorough review with five other prominent bracketology veterans to build a bracket. The benefits of the exercise were to get a sense of how others interpret the same information I review and how teams are discussed and viewed. As always, it was an ultra beneficial experience, and special thanks to Stadium’s Tim Krueger for putting all together and inviting us. The weekend started with visits from FOX Sports’ CBB Analyst Michael DeCourcey and ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. Here is where the committee landed yesterday with the final bracket:

VEGAS ACTIVITY

From now until Selection Sunday I will be in Las Vegas doing my best to both track the action and cover a few games at the different tournaments in town (WCC/Pac12/MWC/WAC/Big West).

I will at minimum send out daily Big Board updates and get a couple of complete brackets done between now and Selection Sunday. Enjoy the madness everyone! Championship Week is special in its own right.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR OUT: SMU, Dayton, BYU, Indiana
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Florida, Virginia, Oregon, Virginia Tech
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.05.22

Ahead of an action-packed Saturday, here is today’s Bracket Forecast.

 

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR OUT: SMU, BYU, Loyola-Chicago, Florida,
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Indiana, Oregon, Virginia, Dayton
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.01.22

INTRO

Saturday. Oh baby, what a Saturday! A colossal meltdown by a high percentage of the best teams in the sport: Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky, Auburn, Kansas, Purdue all fell victims on the road. That is just the high-end carnage. Several other key results helped define today’s bracket forecast.

A complete reset was required and a fresh set of eyes on over 100 different NCAA Tournament hopefuls went into today’s forecast. The bottom line is this: We have eight or nine days until the committee will officially begin meetings and conduct voting. Some teams will not play a significant opponent between now and then. Others will play multiple significant games. As an example, Arch Madness is this week and all eyes will be on how the bubbling Loyola Ramblers perform. The variables remaining are plenty, but the days are not.

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Prior to diving into the bracket forecast, two very busy weeks are ahead. If you enjoy the work on this site, you will likely enjoy some deeper bracket talk coming too.

  • Fielding the 68 Show by FIELD of 68.- Every Monday and Friday at 6 PM ET. I will be on this Friday. A composite seed list will also be available on Mon, Wed, Fri this week.

  • Hoops HD - Championship Week - For the diehards. I will be on a panel most of the next two weeks reviewing and previewing each day of Championship Week. Also, visit HoopsHD.com for thorough Championship Week coverage, a Survival Board for teams being eliminated, and Conference Tournament brackets. (Linked is the Day 0 Episode with a quick prelude)

  • CBB Mock Selection Committee - Begins on Thursday! Be sure to sign up for the Zoom Link. This is the first year partnering with Stadium’s Tim Krueger and well-known Bracketologists Dave Ommen of Bracketville, Lukas Harkins of HeatCheckCBB, Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report, and Shelby Mast of the USA Today. Should be very educational for College Hoops lovers and people in the industry.

TOP SEEDS

Due to all of the shakeups, a careful examination was conducted here. The four top-seeds were not easy to determine. I even tried several angles at the Kentucky argument, but still just a little short until they get one more elite win away from Rupp or see one of these teams lose again.

The four top-seeds are Gonzaga, Baylor, Kansas, and Arizona. The Bears became the largest benficiary by a wide margin following Saturday’s upsets. Baylor wins out over Kansas in nearly every comparable area, most importantly in wins over the field away from home (5).

Duke was also a team who benefited. They were able to bypass Purdue for now and I believe they are very close to passing Auburn in the pecking order. A safe two-seed for a team that the Selection Committee has already shown love for.

The Wisconsin Badgers are a team getting a lot of attention. Rightfully so. The Badgers have an unbelievable 11 wins against the forecasted field (includes RU and IU wins) and lead the nation with 12 away/neutral wins. It’s a resume that is so shiny on the top but the downside here is the home losses to Rutgers, MSU, and Providence. The losses at home stand out and likely play into the predictive metrics being lower (24.33 Average ranking). They do come in as the best 3-seed today as you have to appreciate what they’ve done when even compared to the juggernauts of Texas Tech, Villanova, and Tennessee (the next in teams inline).

Arkansas replaces Ohio State in the Top 16. In fact the Hogs positioned themselves to also jump ahead of UCLA to get to 15th overall. Four Quad 1A wins and a winning record at every level of the quadrant measurements combined with strong metrics helped make this decision.

MIDDLE SEEDS

Saint Mary’s is firmly in the five-six seed range after picking up the 10-point win over Gonzaga. The Gaels may get the chance to play Gonzaga again next week should both win in the Semifinal round. A second win gets them into the protected seed discussion.

It’s somewhat messy in the seven to eight seed range and I’ve doubled down a bit on looking at some of the quality metrics more to help separate these teams. The committee did this last season and I continue to lean on that example. The Iowa State’s and Marquette’s of the world would be disappointed with this I am sure, but this is why it’s an educated forecast.

Wyoming’s loss at home to San Diego State raises a few eyebrows about its body of work. The Cowboys still have a cluster of good road wins, but none came against projected tournament teams. The two wins the Cowboys do have against the projected field are both at Home (Colorado State and Boise State).

BUBBLE

The Final seven teams in order on the selected list are Miami, Notre Dame, Memphis, VCU, North Carolina, SMU, and Michigan.

Miami’s Jim Larranaga is looking for at least one more Tournament run before he closes the book on his career. The 11-seed has defined his legacy, as the 2006 Head man at George Mason. Larranaga’s Canes were also defeated by 11-seed Loyola-Chicago in the first round when Sister Jean & co. went all the way to the final four. So funny enough that the Canes are a projected 11-seed here in March.

The Hurricanes are on the most solid ground for getting in, thanks to a marquee road win at Duke and supplemental wins by sweeping Wake Forest, defeating North Texas in Orlando, and a home win over UNC. It’s an excellent collection of wins that helps Miami withstand some very shaky metrics. Notre Dame has also established themselves to a lesser degree by owning a mix of an elite win (Kentucky) and mix of other tourney-level wins (At Miami, UNC) combined with three total road wins in the top two quads with only one bad loss (at Boston College).

Memphis finds themselves in for now again and for now, just need to keep winning. A win this next weekend against Houston will likely put the Tigers over the top for good. A loss this weekend would set the stage for an anxious week at the AAC Tournament. SMU is guaranteed to be sweating out the AAC Tournament after their loss to Houston last weekend. The Ponies really need to take care of business this week vs. Cincinnati and Tulane at home.

North Carolina is just sitting there still right in the bubble mix. Very simple to select them, but UNC offers nothing special to like. Their only win against a team in or near the field is the home win over Michigan. They failed in each attempt to beat Notre Dame, Wake Forest, and Miami. Unfortunately for the Heels, only played each one time and all on the road. A win at Duke this weekend would almost certainly punch their ticket. Otherwise, they will still be sitting in this same spot next week. Giving other teams the chance to pass them by and send them to the NIT. Also, keep in mind that UNC swept Virginia Tech. If VT inches closer and closer to the right side of the bubble - that actually HELPS North Carolina. Heels fans are now Hokies fans, what a world.

Indiana and Rutgers find themselves absent from the bracket for very different reasons. Indiana is a difficult team to select for two primary reasons: 8-10 record against the top three quadrants and the 340+ OOC Schedule. As for Rutgers, a team that possesses a ton of big wins in Big Ten play, they are still at 10-11 in games vs. top three Quadrants and their own NET has slipped to a very concerning 83rd. NET history is brief, as it just launched in 2019. To date no team lower than 73rd has recieved an At Large.

With that said about IU and Rutgers, I felt compelled to include Michigan to get the B1G at least one of the three into the field. The Wolverines played a far tougher schedule and have done just enough to warrant an invite to Dayton.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely, Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken)

FIRST FOUR OUT: Indiana, BYU, Florida, Loyola-Chicago
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Rutgers, Oregon, St. Bonaventure, Virginia
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.25.22

Check back on Mondays for a full analysis and blog post on the Bracket. Feel free to check last Monday’s post for a good feel on where teams started this week.

Quick Recap of the Mid-Week

  1. Texas Tech continues to win at a high level and I felt good enough to put the Red Raiders on the 2-seed line today. The six Quad 1A wins compared to Duke’s two is a healthy advantage. The comparison remains close due to the Committee’s love for Duke last weekend and Duke’s excellent top-end wins (Zags, Kentucky) and road/neutral record of 9-2. Duke’s three losses in Quad 2B or worse demonstrate some instability at the end of the H2H comparison.

  2. Ohio State’s win at Illinois last night was an impressive performance. A cluster of teams is now mixed into a group for the final two spots in the Top 16: UCLA, Ohio State, Arkansas, Houston, Texas, and UConn. Today, the Bruins and Buckeyes have the edge due to the three Q1A wins apiece. UConn also has collected three but is a bit weighed down slightly due to the Huskies’ sub-.500 record in Quad 1 (5-6). The Razorbacks can claim three as well, however, two of those were at Bud Walton Arena and the overall wins against the projected field number remains just those three wins in totality. Texas (2) and Houston (0) have beautiful predictive metrics but less substance to offer.

  3. Oregon’s sweep of UCLA launched themselves barely above the cutline, as you may have noticed on the Big Board

  4. Highlights from the pivotal Buckeye road win in Champaign:

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR OUT: VCU, North Carolina, Indiana, BYU
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Dayton, Florida, Virginia, St. Bonaventure
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

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