Bracketology

Preseason Bracket

If you missed the season preview sections, be sure to check them out here:

PART ONE: THE ONE-BID LEAGUES

PART TWO: THE MULTI-BID LEAGUES

All 68 forecasted bids are covered in detail. Each of the 32 leagues was previewed in detail. We cannot wait for tip-off around here.

THE BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly unlikely)

FIRST FOUR OUT: Virginia Tech, St. John’s, Loyola-Chicago, Mississippi State

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Stanford, Notre Dame, Iowa State, BYU

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Bracketology 03.13.21 - FINAL

Selection Sunday is here, and thank goodness the restless nights are over. It has been once again a great ride to the finish line. If you would have asked me last Sunday about my thoughts on the bubble picture, I would have said it’s pretty straightforward after the trio of Memphis, North Carolina, and Michigan secured key road wins. Fast forward one week and we have a whole new avalanche of chaos before us.

  • Virginia Tech enters the week with an unattractive resume, ends up winning the ACC Automatic bid and picks up potentially three tournament-level wins along the way (Notre Dame, UNC, Duke).

  • Texas A&M goes from pretty far out of the picture to beating Florida, Auburn, and blowing out Arkansas in a three-day span. Aggies have come too far and improved their position substantially. Regardless of the results in the SEC Tournament Title, the Aggies are sitting in great shape for a bid.

  • Notre Dame, VCU, and North Texas all fell early in their league tournament and are each on thin ice. Cannot see more than one of this group getting in.

  • SMU has been steady all bubble season long and remains here today amazingly. Mustangs hope to hear their name called after finishing 3-2 in their four games against the field (all against Memphis and Houston). The Mustangs have losses from the early season vs. LMU and Missouri that each aged horribly and creates enough reason to be confused.

  • Outlier teams like Rutgers, Oklahoma, and Wake Forest remain relevant but seemingly too risky for selection. Of this group, Rutgers has the best upside thanks to a superb 8-6 record against the field. Will not be surprised if Rutgers avoids Dayton with selection, because the wins are amazing. However, a group of five bad losses (Quad 2B or worse) combined with a 298th ranked out of conference schedule leaves RU hurting now. Oklahoma in our view is 12-15 in their only 27 meaningful games, that simply just isn’t a winning team. However, others think they have hope, so if they somehow get in - our process will shift! Again, the purpose of this website is to educate the College Hoops community and put our best foot forward to simulate what we believe is most important to the committee about each of their decisions. And with Wake Forest, you have a team who beat two tourney-caliber teams at home and did not get an away win against a team in the field. The kicker for the Deacons is the 343rd ranked OOC schedule. Which previous selection committee’s have taught us is way too far out of bounds when this close to the bubble.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Richmond, Atlantic-10)

FIRST FOUR OUT: Notre Dame, Xavier, Rutgers, VCU
NEXT TEAMS OUT: North Texas, BYU, Wake Forest, Oklahoma
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Bracketology 03.10.22

WAKE FOREST/XAVIER

We are diving in head first this morning. Wake Forest and Xavier happened to both lose overtime games to non-tournament teams, Boston College and Butler, respectively.

Wake Forest has the 338th ranked Out of Conference schedule and their best away wins are against Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Florida State, none of whom are going to the tournament as of now. There are nine wins against Quadrant 4 that you can likely ignore. So what’s left?

An overall 14-9 record with three of the nine losses in Quad 2B or worse. A total of two wins over tournament teams, both at home vs. North Carolina and Notre Dame. A total of four losses to non-tournament teams (neutral vs. BC yesterday and at Louisville are the Q3 losses). Wake just simply doesn’t have enough to get in at this point it seems. And any power conference team with this poor of a schedule is typically dismissed when dangerously close to the cut-line. Sorry Deacons fans, it was a great year but a likely trip to the NIT is ahead.

Xavier is a squad that has been ice cold. The ways in which they blew yesterday’s loss to Butler, was pretty staggering, and after Paul Scruggs fouled out the writing was on the wall. So where do the Musketeers stand?

Xavier played a much more respectable schedule than Wake Forest did, and only had four games land in Quadrant 4. The remaining record for Xavier is 14-13. A tough record to stomach when compared to other teams and no high-quality away wins (upper half of seed list). They had three losses that were Quad 2B or worse: The Butler game yesterday and both DePaul and St. John’s at Home. The Musketeers did get one road win at a tournament team - Creighton to go along with Q2 road wins at Butler and DePaul. The Musketeers won a total of five games against tournament-worthy teams, which is much stronger than Wake Forest. They lost a total of four games to non-tournament teams. So in my view, you can still see Xavier get selected. But my very last team in and a good week from Dayton or Indiana or others or any bid thief sends them to the NIT.

THURSDAY - ON TAP

Thursday of Championship Week is so special and critical. The selection committee has now been meeting for over 24 hours and Thursday really represents the last guaranteed chance to make a statement. The closer to Sunday we get, the less likely that anything will change with the committee voting unless there is a major upset or shakeup. This applies to seeding mainly. The selection process is still carefully looked at thru the weekend for the 36 at-large selections.

For the Bubble, Wyoming is still in the first four today. They play UNLV, and we will have live coverage for you!

In the event, UNLV wins - I believe Wyoming will be on thin ice. But perhaps remain above Xavier. That will be interesting to compare if we land there. The other element is the Rebels themselves. UNLV along with Utah State and Fresno State are really talented enough to win this entire tournament and take a bid away. Clearly, that would hurt Wyoming dearly. UNLV is playing hot now as well, just a ton of intrigue going into this game for bracket lovers.

The Indiana Hoosiers play Michigan. A Wolverines team who is likely safe now after another crucial road win last weekend at Ohio State. Indiana likely needs to not only beat Michigan but also Illinois to reach the field. The reason? IU is just 11-12 when you take away Quad 4. None of those results will reach Quad 3. So I believe they need to get at least to a .500 record (13-13) and to do that they need two wins.

Notre Dame will take on Virginia Tech. This adds some real intrigue as the Irish are feeling a tiny bit better after the Wake Forest/Xaver saga. Irish do want to get this win to ensure selection. For Virginia Tech, they can actually add a quality win against a tourney-level team. The Hokies can get a little more of a look with a win tomorrow, however, I feel they are still pretty far away at this stage.

Creighton takes on Marquette. Interestingly, this is a huge relief for the Jays. They will not have the risk of losing to a non-tournament team and should get in regardless of the result. However, a trip to Dayton could definitely be in order if Creighton loses early here.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish need to beat Virginia Tech in order to feel this good again and ensure a bid.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely, Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken)

FIRST FOUR OUT: Dayton, BYU, Indiana, Wake Forest
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Florida, Virginia, Oregon, Virginia Tech
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.08.22

The final Tuesday of Bracket projection season is here. Can you believe it? Neither can I.

The past four days contained an extended thorough review with five other prominent bracketology veterans to build a bracket. The benefits of the exercise were to get a sense of how others interpret the same information I review and how teams are discussed and viewed. As always, it was an ultra beneficial experience, and special thanks to Stadium’s Tim Krueger for putting all together and inviting us. The weekend started with visits from FOX Sports’ CBB Analyst Michael DeCourcey and ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. Here is where the committee landed yesterday with the final bracket:

VEGAS ACTIVITY

From now until Selection Sunday I will be in Las Vegas doing my best to both track the action and cover a few games at the different tournaments in town (WCC/Pac12/MWC/WAC/Big West).

I will at minimum send out daily Big Board updates and get a couple of complete brackets done between now and Selection Sunday. Enjoy the madness everyone! Championship Week is special in its own right.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR OUT: SMU, Dayton, BYU, Indiana
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Florida, Virginia, Oregon, Virginia Tech
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.05.22

Ahead of an action-packed Saturday, here is today’s Bracket Forecast.

 

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR OUT: SMU, BYU, Loyola-Chicago, Florida,
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Indiana, Oregon, Virginia, Dayton
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

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