TOP SEEDS
A weekend full of opportunities came, saw, and conquered. The top of the sport was impacted by a mix of ten non-conference games, rebranded as the SEC/Big12 Challenge. The results are likely the last of the season that will influence non-conference data.
Tennessee was neck-and-neck with Houston heading into the weekend. Vols secured a Q1A win by beating Texas in the Challenge. The revised comparison now favors the Vols over the Cougars. The Tennessee edge is primarily in the collection of wins vs. the projected teams above the bubble cutoff. Vols have four to Houston'‘s two. UH has a premium road win at Virginia, something Tennessee is lacking. That fact causes the comp to go deeper. UH still has slightly better records in the Quad breakdown and has one fewer overall loss. Houston is also a perfect 8-0 on the road, five of those wins in the top two quadrants. Tennessee does not have a Q3 or worse loss, Houston has the home loss (Q3) to Temple.
All of this being said, the four wins over the field and tiny edge in predictive measurements make us believe that the Committee would take the Vols today, but it would be a debate. Houston comes in on the seed list as the fifth-best team. Kansas's win at Kentucky gets them back into the conversation. Jayhawks are now sixth overall.
Marquette has finally broken into protected seed status. The Golden Eagles have been worthy of a Top 16 spot for over a week now. The problem was math. I had a list of 17 who “belonged.” With some of the weekend shuffling combined with Marquette’s 20-point road drubbing of DePaul - the evidence was there to put them above TCU, UConn, and Iowa State in the pecking order.
Speaking of Cyclones.. what on earth happened in Lubbock last night? A 23-point lead with around 12 minutes to go suddenly evaporated and the Red Raiders forced overtime. A stunned ISU team didn’t recover in the extra session and took a surprising loss. For the resume, it’s a Quad 1B loss - so not a ton of harm. The Cyclones also added a road loss to Mizzou in the Challenge and that is cause for some high-level concern. I still have them just a notch above UConn, but it’s really close for that final fourth-seed selection.
MIDDLE SEEDS
Hard to find any teams hotter than Florida Atlantic and Saint Mary’s. The Owls (8-seed) and Gaels (5-seed) both fall into this safe zone of “middle seeds.” SMC will have a key opportunity later this week when hosting Gonzaga on Saturday Night, a game that put them on the Selection Committee’s radar for good last year and ultimately achieved a five-seed. This season, I see Saint Mary’s as having done enough to be a five-seed now. The schedule was really challenging and the results tell you they blow a lot of teams out and when they lose it is by very little. The Gaels do not have the marquee win yet to enter the protected seed discussion, which can change this weekend.
Owls continue to be a lead story here at bracketeer.org. Conference USA is stronger than it has been in over a decade. Back when Memphis, Houston, UCF, and others were in the league and FAU was not! So this is the toughest CUSA these Owls have ever endured or ever will endure. If you missed the memo, FAU is joining the AAC next season (image below). None of this is phasing FAU in the slightest. They are 10-0 in the league and still perfect on the year since losing to Ole Miss in the first week of the season while shorthanded. From a seeding perspective, the Owls keep bouncing between a seven and eight seed. The lack of comparable results is saddling the Owls with a patient approach to seeding. Teams like Northwestern and Creighton have played so well, we have them just a notch higher this morning and that pushed the Owls back to the eight-seed line.
Florida Atlantic is in its final season in CUSA. A brief nine-year CUSA stay for the Owls that has not had a ton of great moments until this season. Owls are set to join the AAC next year with FIU, North Texas, UTSA, UAB, and Rice.
USC deserves love after running past its formidable rival, UCLA by 14 last week. The Trojans were the last team to make it in at this time last week. Now, they are winning a lot of comparisons. Trojans are all the way up on the nine-seed line, mostly clear of bubble danger. In a Pac-12 year that has the majority of its teams not making the NCAA’s - USC will need to avoid trip-ups from here, there are more chances for stumbles than usual.
BUBBLE
Some instant kudos to West Virginia on a great week capped off with the win over Auburn in the challenge. The biggest concern for the Mountaineers is the sheer volume of losses they may suffer in the rugged Big12. That concern can go away if they pick up key road wins. WVU has five amazing road chances at TCU, KU, Iowa State, Baylor, and Texas still in front of them. If they can go 2-3 in those five and hold home court, they are safely in. Golden road opportunity ahead vs. TCU - who is missing Mike Miles. In today’s bracket, you’ll notice that the seeding process pushed the Mountaineers above Dayton and securely into the first round as an 11-seed.
The Last Four In today are Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Texas A&M, and Nevada. Due to some bracketing issues, we have the Wildcats matched up with Nevada in Dayton and the Aggies taking on the Panthers. Nevada held on barely in comparison against Penn State (first team out) due to better records across nearly all combined quads and road records. Pack is 5-4 on the road to PSU’s 3-6. I like this Nittany Lions team and they have a great singular road win at Illinois to build with. Six more road chances exist for Penn State. So their tourney hopes are completely in their road hands.
Buzz Williams is molding his players and this Aggies season together like clay. TAMU continues to improve and currently sit directly near the NCAA/NIT cut-line.
Oklahoma had an elite blowout win over Alabama in the Challenge. Certainly, put the Sooners back on the radar, however, the 8-9 overall record against the top three quadrants is suboptimal and OU still just has one true road win and none against a projected tournament team. Fret not my Sooner friends, the destiny of Oklahoma is completely in your hands. Similar to West Virginia. If you consistently win, the bid will come.
BRACKET
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Atlantic-10 - Saint Louis (First Place alone)
Big 12 - Kansas State (Beat Texas head-to-head)
Horizon - Milwaukee (Owns tiebreakers)
Southland - Southeastern Louisiana (First Place alone)
SoCon - Furman (Beat Samford and split with UNCG)
New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
West Virginia (11-seed)
Pittsburgh (First Four)
Bracket projections are based on the 2022-23 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely, Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Penn State, Wisconsin, Utah State, Arizona State
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Oklahoma, Ohio State, Utah, Virginia Tech
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