Bracketology

Bracketology 03.01.24

MID-WEEK SUMMARY

An eventful week for a variety of reasons. The naked eye would unlikely be able to catch the reasons for bubble shifting as an example. Also, a top-seed shift with Houston inching closer to the top.

-Much to my surprise, there was enough evidence in the several comparisons to feel that Houston has earned the second overall spot on the seed list slightly over UConn. You can argue both teams for a variety of reasons. The Cougars got the nod due to more overall wins (8) against NCAA competition and high-end road wins over BYU, Baylor, and Texas all look stronger than Monday. UConn (6 wins vs. NCAA-level teams) still do not own a road win at a sure-fire NCAA-bound squad. Just enough heavyweight to tip the scales to the Cougars.

-Kansas took the home loss to BYU. Yet, the overall damage the Jayhawks have already acquired is still strong enough to stay a two-seed. Nine current NCAA-projected teams have lost to KU.

- Auburn is slipping further after finding themselves just 1-7 vs. the top quadrant. Performance-wise the Tigers are demolishing the competition, just do not have the resume to fully back it up. Auburn remains a four-seed but has slipped to 16th overall on the big board.

- BYU is the big big winner this week. Acquiring the piece of Gold it so desperately needed. An away win against tourney competition. The Cougars came into the matchup just 1-6 in true road games against quality (top two quad) competition. The updated 2-6 record isn’t great by any means, but getting this win at Phog Allen, and becoming the first team to win there all season certainly changes the game.

-South Carolina continues to pound the resume with more road wins after winning at Ole Miss. It is really impressive and probably worthy of being a 5-seed today. I believe this is an area of seeding where at least some committee members may value performance/power rankings a little extra, so I’ll continue to hedge with the Gamecocks as a six. Big game with Florida visiting tomorrow.

- Nevada’s win at Colorado State was filled with drama. The big picture for the Pack was the impact it made to its tournament chances. The result gave Nevada a sweep of the Rams, and now six Q1 wins for Nevada. They have played themselves well away from the bubble and up the the 7-seed area.

- Big 12 messiness clouded the eight/nine lines with the quartet of TCU/Texas Tech/Oklahoma/Texas. With Houston as 1-seed, this created a bracketing exception. Oklahoma ultimately was eligible to join Houston in the same pod. Because the two are only scheduled to play one time this season.

- Gonzaga passed the first of two road tests last night with flying colors in the NBA’s Chase Center. A showstopper of a win still leaves room for Gonzaga to improve. A big one with Saint Mary’s is part two tomorrow. But the Bulldogs woke up feeling great today.

- The bubble brought consequences to both Providence and Wake Forest for now. The Friars were not expected to beat Marquette by any means. However, that loss makes them a dreaded 8-10 in meaningful games and would leave them in a bad spot. A 2-1 finish for PC is reasonable and can get them right back onto the right side. For Wake, the loss at Notre Dame was another road thorn. The Deacs now have a 3-10 record away from Winston-Salem and a grotesque 1-8 away record in nine opportunities against top-two quadrant opposition.

James Madison and Princeton continue to win and be available for selection. They are today’s beneficiaries of Wake and Providence’s shortcomings. The Utah Utes are right there as well, but similar pain in its road record and resume rating leaves more work to be done.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Providence, Utah, Wake Forest, Memphis

NEXT TEAMS OUT: St. John's, Colorado, Ole Miss, Kansas State

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Bracketology 02.27.24

TOP SEEDS

The week saw some notable results with both UConn and Arizona falling, but each bounced back into form over the weekend. The Kentucky Wildcats were the biggest story with an unstoppable 117-95 win over Alabama. The win knocked Alabama into a first-place SEC tie with Tennessee. For Kentucky, it served as a statement win coming off a road loss to LSU.

Kentucky’s exact placement is somewhat of a guess considering they were a forecasted 7-seed on the morning of the CBS Bracket Preview. Since then, two massive needle-movers occurred. The win at Auburn in convincing fashion and the high-octane demolition of Alabama. One thing appears clear, the four high-end wins (at Auburn, at Florida, vs. UNC in Atlanta, and vs. Bama) are more than than the zero for Illinois. The Illini were the simple choice to move to 17th overall and the top five seed.

Two-seeds all went undefeated. A North Carolina road win at Virginia helps close the gap between them and Arizona for the final 1-seed (West), but I believe Arizona still has just enough strength at the top of its resume to hold off the Heels. It’s narrow now.

The three seeds lost besides Iowa State. The Cyclones eventually put away West Virginia after a little bit of a scare. Bama’s loss at Kentucky, Baylor’s loss in OT to Houston, and Duke’s loss at Wake Forest were not bad losses at all, but ISU still has just enough to be perhaps the top choice among the group now.

Baylor recovered quickly with a Monday night win at TCU. The Bears now own four wins in high Q1A territory and that was their first on the road. The Bears are pushing hard for a 2-seed should someone slip above them.

Auburn and San Diego State remain in similar spots after holding serve, remaining as four-seeds. Creighton, however, fell at St. John’s to take its eighth loss of the year. The Jays have the strength in resume largely thanks to the emphatic win over UConn and an additional marquee home win over Alabama. On the road, Seton Hall is a quality road win, but the Jays didn’t get one of the elite wins (only Villanova is left on the road) and lost to UNLV and Colorado State (neutral) in games away from Omaha earlier. Creighton also owns home losses to NIT forecasted teams in Villanova and Butler, which is why their protected-seed status is not secure yet.

MIDDLE SEEDS

South Carolina’s win at Ole Miss provided further weight on an already impressive road resume. The Gamecocks find themselves at 9-3 in all games away from Columbia, with four of those being true road wins against the top two quads, headlined by the win at Tennessee. With an outstanding resume, it was impossible to keep them off the six-seed area after comparing them to squads like Washington State, Florida, and Texas Tech.

Speaking of WSU - the Cougars followed its major win at Arizona with a disappointing double-digit loss at Arizona State. Such is life in College Basketball. The Cougars now have a fourth loss in the Quad 2B or worse part of NET sorting. Otherwise, there is a lot to like still. A sweep of Arizona is still really attractive in this part of the seeding process and WSU settles in as a six-seed. Much excitement was offered my direction with the possibility of the Cougars being sent to Spokane. Unless something drastically changes, they will need to be a five-seed or higher for that dream to become reality due to the likely destinations for the first three seed lines going to other sites, leaving Spokane with all 4-13, 5-12 matchups as you’ll see in today’s forecast.

Mississippi State has played its way up to a seven-seed with superb play and some help from teams like Colorado State, FAU, and BYU all falling over the weekend. Outside of the road holes and Q4 loss to Southern, the Bulldogs have an excellent 8-6 record and now own Top 30 marks in the analytical tools when looking at resume and performance combined. I provided some deeper MSU Bulldog thoughts here with Justin Frommer, MSU reporter:

BUBBLE

Seton Hall is the big bubble winner at this stage of the season following wins over Xavier, St. John’s, and Butler to not only propel themselves above the cutline but also help put those three further away from being selected in the process. Now the Pirates get two home run swings at Creighton and at UConn this week. Should the Pirates falter twice, they will have 12 losses and need to clean up the final two home games vs. Villanova and lowly DePaul.

Gonzaga has its biggest week of WCC play ahead in the Bay Area. A jacked-up San Francisco Dons team is set to host the Bulldogs in the NBA’s Chase Center this Thursday Night. My understanding is this still qualifies as a true road game for Gonzaga. Two nights later, it is the annual finale at Saint Mary’s - which serves as an upside game for the bubble-ish Bulldogs. Gonzaga needs at least a split this week to remain in good standing and a sweep would allow them to ascend a bit up the seed list.

Michigan State took its fourth home loss on Sunday to Ohio State. It served as the Spartans’ fourth home loss this year and second in two weeks against non-NCAAT (Iowa) teams. The Spartans are also just 4-7 away from the Breslin Center. Plenty of ammunition for the committee to place them under the microscope. Talked a ton about this on Monday’s Fielding The 68 Show:

New Mexico’s home loss to Air Force was a stunner and a tough individual result to swallow. One of the great myths of Bracketology (largely due to the way TV attempts to describe it) is that singular results automatically knock a team out or put a team into the field. A complete re-evaluation is always required after new results come in and it’s based solely on the body of work of each at-large candidate. For the Lobos - two critical road games at Boise State and Utah State will mean more to its fate than this loss to Air Force. UNM needs to win one of them, no doubt, and of course, win the home finale over Fresno State.

Ole Miss is still on my immediate radar for two important reasons. One, they have Alabama this week at home, which is a shot at a much-needed Q1A victory. The other is that the Rebels have just one loss to a team outside of the projected field. This is a fact that is best-in-class across Bubble options.

Butler wins out against St. John’s, DePaul, and Xavier - I believe they are right back in. With 12 losses there is no room for error in these three I don’t believe since the two challenging games are in Hinkle.

Keep an eye on - Kansas State, Memphis, Pittsburgh, and Colorado - who are all looking at inside straights to make a late move to get in. Also, Utah and Oregon in the PAC have avenues too, but we are running out of time/chances. The Ducks could hit a home run with a win at Arizona. Easier said than done (unless you are WSU).

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Ole Miss, James Madison, Princeton, Butler

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Utah, Memphis, Colorado, Pittsburgh

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.24.2024

MID-WEEK REVIEW

A busy mid-week came and went, and now we are on the cusp of another loaded landscape of games across College Hoops. The significant results from the past week within the at-large pool:

  • Creighton’s convincing home win over UConn gave them a second high-end Q1A victory and placed the Jays comfortably into protected seed status after the likes of Illinois, Wisconsin, and San Diego State have all stumbled since the February 17th Bracket Preview presented by the selection committee.

  • Washington State rocked the Western world with the best road win money can buy in the West, at Arizona. For WSU, it is its eighth win in a row. The Cougars currently sit comfortably above .500 in every important category, including Away/Neutral games, and won a lot of comparisons to work up to a 5-seed this morning.

  • Michigan State’s home loss to Iowa is a yellow flag for now. Much scrutiny could be on deck for the Spartans with another home loss or loss in general to a team outside of the field. The win gave an actual path to seemingly-toast Iowa. The Hawkeyes still play Illinois twice and play at Northwestern. Of course, super challenging. However, having the opportunities is all that matters and they have got a crack to play into the picture now.

The rest of the recap and several of my opinions on teams were captured in yesterday’s Fielding The 68 Show. Here is the full episode from Friday:

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top-seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Ole Miss, Oregon, Butler, Wake Forest

NEXT TEAMS OUT: James Madison, Villanova, Drake, Texas A&M

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.20.24 - Post Bracket Reveal Thoughts

BRACKET REVEAL RECAP

The first indicators are now public for all to see when it comes to the 23-24 NCAA selection committee. In the annual spirit, guessing this with 100% perfection once again proved to be a challenge. At Bracketeer, 15 of the 16 were identified accurately and 13 of the 16 were seeded correctly. Here is what the committee revealed:

SURPRISES

San Diego State was the team I missed on. The Aztecs certainly challenged themselves in non-conference play. SDSU is the first reigning national finalist to turn around the following year and take on four true road games in non-conference action that I can remeber in any recent season. They came away from that schedule with high-end NET wins over Saint Mary’s in Las Vegas, and a true road win at the near-impossible Kennel over Gonzaga. With the Gaels trending up (current winners of 12 straight) yet not quite in the protected seed discussion and Gonzaga still near the bubble, I did not believe the Committee would have them as a 4-seed (and especially 14th overall). The indication is that this group of commissioners and AD’s were impressed by a Top 15 schedule, 7-6 record away from home, and no losses outside of Q1.

Depending on how you prefer to interpret these clues, this could be great news for the Mountain West as a whole, Gonzaga’s bubble hopes, Grand Canyon’s bubble hopes (if an at-large is needed), Florida’s seed (if they remain perfect outside of Q1), and any team who scheduled hard (like a Utah, who is on the bubble). Or simply all of the above.

North Carolina was deemed the highest-rated two-seed by the committee. Which to me was a clue that the committee really respected the high-end road winning- UNC is currently 6-1 in true road games within the top two quadrants, highlighted by a win at Clemson. Nine total wins away from the Dean Dome as well, includes a win over Oklahoma in Charlotte. The sheer quantity and win pct. of this resume stands out but UNC did not have the elite high-end wins yet. Interesting part was this won out over teams with high-end wins like Tennessee, Marquette, and Kansas. The NCAAT coordinator and magnificent communicator is David Worlock. He publicly confirmed to me that the committee did not gather until after Wednesday (2/14) of last week, which meant the UNC loss to Syracuse was accounted for.

Always terrific to get validation like this. The priority, goal, and mission of Bracketeer is to provide education, insight, and accuracy into what I believe the committee values the most in this process and on building a real-time bracket on a regular basis that is done step-by-step the same way as the committee.

Lastly, Alabama appeared as the ninth overall seed and Auburn 13th. Another case where road wins seemed to matter more and much like SDSU, the Tide also do not have a bad loss to point at. So a pretty good set of clues were delivered with them being the highest of the three-seeds. Auburn (prior to home Kentucky loss), had its best road win come at bubble-ish Ole Miss. Tigers fell to the highest 4-seed as of Saturday AM.

tOP SEEDS

We covered a lot of the learnings, now let’s talk about some actual games that impacted today’s bracket.

The Ohio State upset over Purdue left the Boilermakers sitting with three losses this year, which is lower than two. Purdue still has more (7) high quality wins than UConn (5) and has better marks in a handful of key areas. Purdue really has a good case to remain as the top overall seed, but in this case- we have two teams who win every game almost. If UConn wins out (play at Creighton tonight, later at Marquette), then the Huskies have the path to leave no doubt as the top overall team. We are going to wait for someone to prove that UConn is beatable (perhaps tonight?) until moving them down. So UConn is the choice today for top overall team in the Bracket.

The Kansas win at Oklahoma combined with Marquette’s blowout loss at UConn was enough to slot KU higher in the 2-seed pecking order.

No changes to the three-seed line.

The Auburn home loss to Kentucky, dropped the Tigers from 13th overall to 15th. Still a fairly safe 4-seed in the Field. The Wisconsin loss over the weekend was its ninth overall loss and it came to non-NCAA bound Iowa, which hurts a little more. That opened the door for a new team to enter. Creighton seized a big opportunity with a blowout win at Butler, and enters the group. Dayton was close here. And Clemson was entering Saturday, before falling to NC State.

MIDDLE SEEDS

Kentucky is the highest riser by a long shot here. The Wildcats became the first team to win at Auburn, a team who had won every home SEC game by double-digits. The ‘Cats defensive clinic throughout the night kept the rowdy Jungle mostly tame. This meant a jump over several teams today and landed Kentucky back up to a five-seed.

Florida continues to build momentum. A win at Georgia gave the Gators a second good road win to back up its win over Kentucky. That’s of course a win that aged well this weekend. Plus, the committee was perhaps high on San Diego State due to no losses outside of Q1, and Florida can still boast this as well.

Washington State has won seven in a row. Several teams fell over the weekend, which opened the door for WSU to move up substantially. The Cougars currently own four Q1 wins and have a showdown at Arizona this Thursday. An upset in Tucson would not only launch WSU further up the board, it would put the Cougars in the drivers seat for a Pac-12 Championship for the first time since 1941 in its final year as a league.

Florida Atlantic and Virginia had a rough outing last time out causing some slippage. FAU was able to rally hard in a AAC showdown at South Florida, but came up just short. The Cavs were completely blown out in the Commonwealth Clash in Blacksburg, which hurt some of their overall strength numbers, which can influence seeding.

BUBBLE

Mississippi State racked up a tight win over Arkansas this past weekend. The win likely didn’t seem like much to most, but in my view the Bulldogs just need to continue to rack up these base hits while several other competitors for the final spots tumble. With losses to Southern U. and at Georgia Tech, the last thing the Bulldogs need is a bigger mix of bad results. On the positive side, the wins over WSU and Northwestern in Connecticut are aging well, plus Tennessee and Auburn home wins are great to anchor with. The listed metrics on team sheets all align to MSU being a top 40 team and that was enough insurance for me to feel comfortable bringing them up the board as MSU finds themselves as a nine-seed today.

Texas A&M lost at Alabama handily. On the surface, that is somewhat an expected loss. TAMU has such an interesting body of work that boasts six Quad 1 wins, but they also have four subpar losses. That includes the recent loss to Vanderbilt last week. There are enough questions on this Aggie profile that I believe the committee would have a difficult time voting them into a nine or 10 seed right now, compared to other options. They landed in the first four - destined for Dayon today.

Ole Miss and Nebraska find themselves in razor thin positions due to an abundance of meaningless Quad 4 games that aren’t helping and which led to each school owning NCSOS rankings north of 320. This is typically grounds for termination near the bubble. The Huskers have really cleaned house at home to build its resume, but 1-7 in true road games add even deeper red flags to the Cornhuskers’ body of work. Ole Miss has the weakest in-conference schedule in the SEC to go along with its poor NCSOS. However, the Rebels passed big tests already at TAMU and at UCF, which continue to show the committee some solid evidence that they belong with its 5-5 record away from Oxford. For now, both of these teams are avoiding Dayton in the Bracket. But another loss for either can mean complete exclusion. I generally have a hard time seeing either of them being Dayton teams, as I think they both will either play its way in convincingly or be out all together.

Butler is the last team in today. Despite the beautiful road wins at Creighton and Marquette, a record of 9-10 in meaningful games (when Q4 is removed from record) is beyond risky business. The Bulldogs really don’t have a bad loss, just a bad winning percentage compared to its amount of chances. Hanging on for now, plus there remains two projected bid steals in this forecast which may or may not mean a little more cushion when we get to the finish line.

New Mexico is a team that I believe is more worthy of selection than Butler. The forecast today is calling for the Lobos to be left out however. In large part this is due to the remaining Mountain West schedule. With several more games between the six tourney hopefuls (SDSU/CSU/USU/Nevada/Boise State/UNM), the chances of all six remaining in are fairly slim. I am sure there is a mathematical formula of road wins and no bad losses that would overturn my forecast. For now, the Lobos are the odd team out. The big road win at Nevada and overall sweep of Nevada looks great, but its next best road win is in Quad 3. All four neutral court wins unfortunately are Quad 3 or worse. It leaves the Lobos’ proverbial high-end cupboard bare compared to the other bubble options (sans Butler). The three home wins against tournament teams all came at home and against teams in the league. Non-Conference wise, the Lobos got stuck with a poor schedule due to home game demands from its athletic department. If they end up in this situation on Selection Sunday, it would be a brutal pill to swallow. This team is highly skilled and deeply talented, my analyst brain thinks they will close strong and play well into the at-large field. For today, there is either work to do or some inner-conference upsets to Boise State to root for (Lobos really don’t want to root against Nevada, since they swept the Pack). New Mexico plays at both Boise State and Utah State in March, I believe they need to win one of them at minimum.

AUTO BIDS

Charleston benefited from Elon’s upset over UNC Wilmington to claim the inside track in the CAA. The Cougars will need to have their “A-Game” this week on the road though if they wish to stay in command. The always tough Delaware/Towson road swing begins this Thursday night.

Houston seized control of the Big XII race last night with its win over Iowa State. No damage done to the at-large bids, of course.

Norfolk State overtook N.C. Central for pole position in the MEAC race. It was a great, high-energy matchup last night.

Southern U. took a loss to Texas Southern on Monday evening, which puts Grambling back in front of the SWAC race.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top-seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: New Mexico, Cincinnati, Utah, James Madison

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Drake, Villanova, Princeton, Providence

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8




Bracketology 02.17.24

BRACKET PREVIEW SATURDAY

It is here, that we made it to the day where the 2024 Selection Committee will give us a glimpse into their thinking. I had the privilege of joining Fielding The 68 Show yesterday to dive into detailed thoughts on all 16 selections for the top four seed lines, which is what the CBS preview will tell us later this afternoon. The link will take you to our hour long show.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top-seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: New Mexico, Memphis, Utah, James Madison

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Wake Forest, Drake, Kansas State, Cincinnati

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

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