Bracketology

Bracketology 03.12.24

One Final Week - Five Days to Go

March Madness is so close that one could smell it at this stage of the campaign and that means not a lot can impact any given team’s body of work. However, there is just enough room for games this week to impact certain bubble teams - both positively and negatively.

Most of the decisions and what is at stake this week were shared on FIELDING THE 68 yesterday. You can find the full episode here:

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 3: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond), MVC (Drake). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: St. John's, New Mexico, Iowa, Villanova

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Pittsburgh, Utah, Kansas State, Wake Forest

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.08.24

MID-WEEK SUMMARY

The first notable change is Marquette. The Golden Eagles, of course, are navigating life without Tyler Kolek for the time being and dealt with team illnesses at Creighton. Certainly, no shame in losing to either the Jays or UConn, but the wins have also somewhat cooled off. Marquette is down to arguably six wins against NCAAT competition, and if you remove extra bubbly St. John’s and Villanova, that number shrinks by two. Baylor and Kansas have done more damage at this stage plus the committee will certainly have concerns if Kolek’s status remains in question.

It was a surprise to see San Diego State included in the Bracket Preview as a 4-seed, but now I think the committee would have the Aztecs below the SEC trio of Kentucky, Auburn, and Alabama, along with Illinois. Aztecs lost on the road to all of the six MWC teams who are part of the top seven. Pretty surprising that they didn’t beat one of them out of six tries, following the loss at UNLV this week.

The 5-seed line has an opening for the final spot following Washington State’s home loss to Washington. Clemson held serve against Syracuse this week, and I believe they are back with this group of teams. BYU and South Carolina both missed opportunities to move up, but no real harm in their losses.

A larger cluster exists between the 6-seed and 7-seeds. Very difficult to separate the 8-pack of Dayton/Florida/Gonzaga/Nevada/Saint Mary’s/Utah State/Washington State/Wisconsin. Not a lot of commonalities between this variety pack. Hopefully, this weekend will help clarify the matter further.

Seton Hall was a big winner to help get in a more stable position and send Villanova in the extreme danger zone with 13 overall losses. The Wildcats finish tomorrow with a must-win home win over Creighton. A win gives them a sweep over the Jays. It’s a polarizing at-large resume, but a 14th loss would provide a de facto TKO to the NIT most likely.

Iowa has been Idle all week, but must’ve been fun for the Hawkeyes to see a few teams fall. Massive game for the Hawkeyes this Sunday vs. Illinois. A loss gives them the unlucky 13 total and a lopsided 12-13 record once Q4 games are ignored.

Colorado is in a better position following a road win at Oregon. That likely sent Oregon into auto-bid or bust territory. For the Buffs- another road win at Oregon State is a must. The injury woes all year have prevented CU from being consistent, I think that is likely to be discussed by the committee in the extreme bubble category.

Providence needs this win over UConn of course, and if they can do it - likely the Friars are back on the good side of the bubble

Stetson will host Austin Peay in the ASUN Championship Game. The Hatters enter the projection for the first time.

Toledo benefited from the massive MAC upset this week where Eastern Michigan upended Akron. The Rockets are in the field today as the league’s representative.

BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 3: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond), Sun Belt (Appalachian State). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: New Mexico, Villanova, St. John's, Memphis

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Providence, Utah, Pittsburgh, Drake

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.05.24

MOCK COMMITTEE RECAP

A tremendous annual experience is to participate in Mock Selection Committees. Understanding selection committee dynamics is ridiculously difficult and likely impossible without ever being in one. The process, policies, and procedures are available as public info and one can digest that and build a bracket accordingly. However, the way selections are made doesn’t work that simply for the committee and it is why some people struggle with being accurate on the final bracket.

For the third year, we joined together to do this with Stadium’s Tim Krueger. Tim is based in Omaha and also participates in Creighton Media work. So we all took a break on Saturday to attend Marquette-Creighton. Of course, the Golden Eagles were playing without Tyler Kolek and Oso, but they made it a good game as you likely saw. Other than that, we were in the room for around 20 hours from Friday to Sunday at Let It Fly sports bar in downtown Omaha. The place was outstanding as we overlooked a packed sports bar watching games all weekend long.

Pregame Scenes from Let It Fly in Omaha. Awesome hosts all weekend for @2024MockBB #BigEast pic.twitter.com/7Fl6hpjZb2
— Rocco Miller (@RoccoMiller8) March 2, 2024

The initial key result came on Friday with Dayton falling to Loyola-Chicago and we were off to the races with needing to re-evaluate our thoughts on teams. Saturday, brought a ton of results - headlined by Tennessee’s marquee road win at Alabama and Gonzaga’s emphatic victory at Saint Mary’s. In the end, those two games gave us a new 1-seed in the West and a big-brand national team that took four months to get away from the bubble, but finally played its way well into the field.

Sunday was the final day and a reassessment of all 16-seed lines. After doing these over Zoom for several years now, I have to say that being in person is such a helpful difference. I was in a marathon in there with these fine gentlemen, and you gain an appreciation for the process by being there together.

When you read my projections here, I am making every decision with a committee discussion playing out in my mind on each team and when teams are being compared in a group. Without that ability, there is no way to make clear decisions in this great art and science recurring project. So, bear in mind that the forecast is based on a full evaluation of what I believe the NCAA Committee is discussing and valuing and not my personal opinion.

I do not recommend wasting 18-20 hours of your time on it, however, you’ll find the YouTube videos from all of the Mock Committee meetings this past weekend in Omaha right here below. We appreciate all of the donations. The goal is to make this bigger and better every year. The ability to do it in person as a group is paramount:
https://www.youtube.com/@mockselectioncommittee

TODAY’S FORECAST - BRACKETING REVIEW

To switch things up today, bracketing is going to take center stage. It is oftentimes where you will see someone struggle to build an acceptable bracket based on the many rules in play. We will use today’s bracket to call out a few noteworthy items.

1-seeds are pretty straightforward forward with Purdue, Houston, and UConn all being sent to their preferred destinations and Tennessee gets the remaining region- West.
2-seeds (which now includes Baylor today) were fairly simple with Arizona and UNC still getting their close-to-home preference. Marquette headed to the South to avoid being with Purdue and Baylor joined the Boilers in the Midwest
Things became interesting on the 3-seed line. Creighton is our last 3-seed today and preferred Salt Lake City. However, the teams above them (Kansas, Iowa State, Duke) all took sites (Omaha x2 and Pittsburgh) that play on Thursday/Saturday. With the 11-seed line needing room for a play-in game, it was required to have at minimum one Friday/Sunday location here. Thus, Spokane was closer to Creighton than Brooklyn (the only choice left), and the Jays were sent to Spokane instead of SLC by necessity.
Alabama to Pittsburgh and Kentucky to Brooklyn were fairly simple location assignments. Illinois benefited somewhat from the 3-seed crisis and will play in Salt Lake City instead of Spokane.
5-seeds include BYU and that always invites more rules due to the Cougars not being able to play Sunday games. The Cougar community is praying for a Salt Lake City assignment and they have only SLC or Pittsburgh that they will be sent to, so long that the Cougars remain a 5-seed. It did not work out today because the SEC has multiple fours and fives, which meant South Carolina had to go into the West Region.
The 6-seed line was straightforward. Dayton got their preferred Pittsburgh assignment despite being the bottom-ranked team in this group.
The 7-seed line was a glorious one for Utah State, who will stay home in Salt Lake City. Florida got its preferred destination of Charlotte. Gonzaga/Nevada got the leftovers.
The 8-seed and 9-seed line continues to produce an overload of Big 12 teams combined with a 1-seed Houston in the second round. Oklahoma only played Houston one time thus far and is one of the safe choices to use in this scenario for the South Region. Texas and UConn met earlier this year, but by the time it came time for the Longhorns to be slotted, there was no other place to go but East. The avoidance of second-round rematches preference is just that, a preference. The good news is that this is the only such example of it occurring throughout the bracket today.
10-seed assignments took care of Nebraska and Virginia as much as possible. Colorado State was sent further to Charlotte due to other MWC teams already in 7-10 matchups.
The 11-seed line includes both of the play-in games. The Villanova/James Madison winner would prefer to stay in the eastern part of the U.S. after Dayton, but due to needing a Friday/Sunday site, the winner would be sent to Spokane here. Princeton was able to take the Pittsburgh assignment instead of Michigan State because the committee will look to avoid second-round rematches from the schedule if at all possible, and of course Michigan State already faced Duke this season. That sent the Spartans to Omaha.
The 12-seed line got interesting because the bracketing is looking for Grand Canyon to avoid matchups in the first two rounds against both San Diego State and South Carolina. So the Lopes were shipped to Pittsburgh.
The 13-seed line was pretty flexible. Appalachian State is relatively traveling similar distances to Pittsburgh or Brooklyn as the strongest ranked 13-seed. The Mountaineers were sent to Brooklyn to avoid a matchup with the strongest of the 4-seeds (Alabama).
14-seeds were even more of a no-brainer for slotting. Oakland was sent the furthest (to Spokane), due to being the last-ranked team of the four options.
Eastern Washington has already played Arizona, so the Eagles were sent to Indianapolis to face Marquette. And a fun fact is that Sam Houston is closer to Charlotte than it is to Salt Lake City.
16-seeds all went in order. Quinnipiac is the highest rated and lucked out by staying in an eastern pod against Tennessee.

BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Iowa, New Mexico, St. John's, Memphis

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Providence, Colorado, Wake Forest, Kansas State

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.01.24

MID-WEEK SUMMARY

An eventful week for a variety of reasons. The naked eye would unlikely be able to catch the reasons for bubble shifting as an example. Also, a top-seed shift with Houston inching closer to the top.

-Much to my surprise, there was enough evidence in the several comparisons to feel that Houston has earned the second overall spot on the seed list slightly over UConn. You can argue both teams for a variety of reasons. The Cougars got the nod due to more overall wins (8) against NCAA competition and high-end road wins over BYU, Baylor, and Texas all look stronger than Monday. UConn (6 wins vs. NCAA-level teams) still do not own a road win at a sure-fire NCAA-bound squad. Just enough heavyweight to tip the scales to the Cougars.

-Kansas took the home loss to BYU. Yet, the overall damage the Jayhawks have already acquired is still strong enough to stay a two-seed. Nine current NCAA-projected teams have lost to KU.

- Auburn is slipping further after finding themselves just 1-7 vs. the top quadrant. Performance-wise the Tigers are demolishing the competition, just do not have the resume to fully back it up. Auburn remains a four-seed but has slipped to 16th overall on the big board.

- BYU is the big big winner this week. Acquiring the piece of Gold it so desperately needed. An away win against tourney competition. The Cougars came into the matchup just 1-6 in true road games against quality (top two quad) competition. The updated 2-6 record isn’t great by any means, but getting this win at Phog Allen, and becoming the first team to win there all season certainly changes the game.

BYU's Stock.#BYU #BigXII pic.twitter.com/4Y2dv8KfxE
— Rocco Miller (@RoccoMiller8) February 28, 2024

-South Carolina continues to pound the resume with more road wins after winning at Ole Miss. It is really impressive and probably worthy of being a 5-seed today. I believe this is an area of seeding where at least some committee members may value performance/power rankings a little extra, so I’ll continue to hedge with the Gamecocks as a six. Big game with Florida visiting tomorrow.

- Nevada’s win at Colorado State was filled with drama. The big picture for the Pack was the impact it made to its tournament chances. The result gave Nevada a sweep of the Rams, and now six Q1 wins for Nevada. They have played themselves well away from the bubble and up the the 7-seed area.

- Big 12 messiness clouded the eight/nine lines with the quartet of TCU/Texas Tech/Oklahoma/Texas. With Houston as 1-seed, this created a bracketing exception. Oklahoma ultimately was eligible to join Houston in the same pod. Because the two are only scheduled to play one time this season.

- Gonzaga passed the first of two road tests last night with flying colors in the NBA’s Chase Center. A showstopper of a win still leaves room for Gonzaga to improve. A big one with Saint Mary’s is part two tomorrow. But the Bulldogs woke up feeling great today.

- The bubble brought consequences to both Providence and Wake Forest for now. The Friars were not expected to beat Marquette by any means. However, that loss makes them a dreaded 8-10 in meaningful games and would leave them in a bad spot. A 2-1 finish for PC is reasonable and can get them right back onto the right side. For Wake, the loss at Notre Dame was another road thorn. The Deacs now have a 3-10 record away from Winston-Salem and a grotesque 1-8 away record in nine opportunities against top-two quadrant opposition.

James Madison and Princeton continue to win and be available for selection. They are today’s beneficiaries of Wake and Providence’s shortcomings. The Utah Utes are right there as well, but similar pain in its road record and resume rating leaves more work to be done.

BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Providence, Utah, Wake Forest, Memphis

NEXT TEAMS OUT: St. John's, Colorado, Ole Miss, Kansas State

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.27.24

TOP SEEDS

The week saw some notable results with both UConn and Arizona falling, but each bounced back into form over the weekend. The Kentucky Wildcats were the biggest story with an unstoppable 117-95 win over Alabama. The win knocked Alabama into a first-place SEC tie with Tennessee. For Kentucky, it served as a statement win coming off a road loss to LSU.

Kentucky’s exact placement is somewhat of a guess considering they were a forecasted 7-seed on the morning of the CBS Bracket Preview. Since then, two massive needle-movers occurred. The win at Auburn in convincing fashion and the high-octane demolition of Alabama. One thing appears clear, the four high-end wins (at Auburn, at Florida, vs. UNC in Atlanta, and vs. Bama) are more than than the zero for Illinois. The Illini were the simple choice to move to 17th overall and the top five seed.

Two-seeds all went undefeated. A North Carolina road win at Virginia helps close the gap between them and Arizona for the final 1-seed (West), but I believe Arizona still has just enough strength at the top of its resume to hold off the Heels. It’s narrow now.

The three seeds lost besides Iowa State. The Cyclones eventually put away West Virginia after a little bit of a scare. Bama’s loss at Kentucky, Baylor’s loss in OT to Houston, and Duke’s loss at Wake Forest were not bad losses at all, but ISU still has just enough to be perhaps the top choice among the group now.

Baylor recovered quickly with a Monday night win at TCU. The Bears now own four wins in high Q1A territory and that was their first on the road. The Bears are pushing hard for a 2-seed should someone slip above them.

Auburn and San Diego State remain in similar spots after holding serve, remaining as four-seeds. Creighton, however, fell at St. John’s to take its eighth loss of the year. The Jays have the strength in resume largely thanks to the emphatic win over UConn and an additional marquee home win over Alabama. On the road, Seton Hall is a quality road win, but the Jays didn’t get one of the elite wins (only Villanova is left on the road) and lost to UNLV and Colorado State (neutral) in games away from Omaha earlier. Creighton also owns home losses to NIT forecasted teams in Villanova and Butler, which is why their protected-seed status is not secure yet.

MIDDLE SEEDS

South Carolina’s win at Ole Miss provided further weight on an already impressive road resume. The Gamecocks find themselves at 9-3 in all games away from Columbia, with four of those being true road wins against the top two quads, headlined by the win at Tennessee. With an outstanding resume, it was impossible to keep them off the six-seed area after comparing them to squads like Washington State, Florida, and Texas Tech.

Speaking of WSU - the Cougars followed its major win at Arizona with a disappointing double-digit loss at Arizona State. Such is life in College Basketball. The Cougars now have a fourth loss in the Quad 2B or worse part of NET sorting. Otherwise, there is a lot to like still. A sweep of Arizona is still really attractive in this part of the seeding process and WSU settles in as a six-seed. Much excitement was offered my direction with the possibility of the Cougars being sent to Spokane. Unless something drastically changes, they will need to be a five-seed or higher for that dream to become reality due to the likely destinations for the first three seed lines going to other sites, leaving Spokane with all 4-13, 5-12 matchups as you’ll see in today’s forecast.

Mississippi State has played its way up to a seven-seed with superb play and some help from teams like Colorado State, FAU, and BYU all falling over the weekend. Outside of the road holes and Q4 loss to Southern, the Bulldogs have an excellent 8-6 record and now own Top 30 marks in the analytical tools when looking at resume and performance combined. I provided some deeper MSU Bulldog thoughts here with Justin Frommer, MSU reporter:

Asked elite bracketologist @RoccoMiller8 about Mississippi State’s NCAA Tournament resume after last night’s win at LSU and he believes there is a path for the Bulldogs to get the 6-seed line.

Here are is thoughts: pic.twitter.com/4T5fzyueCR
— Justin Frommer (@JustinbFrommer) February 25, 2024

BUBBLE

Seton Hall is the big bubble winner at this stage of the season following wins over Xavier, St. John’s, and Butler to not only propel themselves above the cutline but also help put those three further away from being selected in the process. Now the Pirates get two home run swings at Creighton and at UConn this week. Should the Pirates falter twice, they will have 12 losses and need to clean up the final two home games vs. Villanova and lowly DePaul.

Gonzaga has its biggest week of WCC play ahead in the Bay Area. A jacked-up San Francisco Dons team is set to host the Bulldogs in the NBA’s Chase Center this Thursday Night. My understanding is this still qualifies as a true road game for Gonzaga. Two nights later, it is the annual finale at Saint Mary’s - which serves as an upside game for the bubble-ish Bulldogs. Gonzaga needs at least a split this week to remain in good standing and a sweep would allow them to ascend a bit up the seed list.

Michigan State took its fourth home loss on Sunday to Ohio State. It served as the Spartans’ fourth home loss this year and second in two weeks against non-NCAAT (Iowa) teams. The Spartans are also just 4-7 away from the Breslin Center. Plenty of ammunition for the committee to place them under the microscope. Talked a ton about this on Monday’s Fielding The 68 Show:

New Mexico’s home loss to Air Force was a stunner and a tough individual result to swallow. One of the great myths of Bracketology (largely due to the way TV attempts to describe it) is that singular results automatically knock a team out or put a team into the field. A complete re-evaluation is always required after new results come in and it’s based solely on the body of work of each at-large candidate. For the Lobos - two critical road games at Boise State and Utah State will mean more to its fate than this loss to Air Force. UNM needs to win one of them, no doubt, and of course, win the home finale over Fresno State.

Ole Miss is still on my immediate radar for two important reasons. One, they have Alabama this week at home, which is a shot at a much-needed Q1A victory. The other is that the Rebels have just one loss to a team outside of the projected field. This is a fact that is best-in-class across Bubble options.

Butler wins out against St. John’s, DePaul, and Xavier - I believe they are right back in. With 12 losses there is no room for error in these three I don’t believe since the two challenging games are in Hinkle.

Keep an eye on - Kansas State, Memphis, Pittsburgh, and Colorado - who are all looking at inside straights to make a late move to get in. Also, Utah and Oregon in the PAC have avenues too, but we are running out of time/chances. The Ducks could hit a home run with a win at Arizona. Easier said than done (unless you are WSU).

BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Ole Miss, James Madison, Princeton, Butler

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Utah, Memphis, Colorado, Pittsburgh

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8