Today’s Big Board is updated to reflect the bracket posted today. This was posted prior to any of the games on February 16th. As I always have done, teams are sorted into different tiers to showcase the vulnerability of dropping or the chances to advance for each program.
The Bracketology Big Board is current thru games played on February 15h, 2021.
SEED LIST 1-68
Inside the Bracket
Big Board 02.12.21
Today’s Big Board is updated to reflect the bracket posted today. This was posted prior to any of the games on February 9th. This will be the final board until the CBS Bracket reveal show on Saturday. Once those results are in, we will have a reimagained projection on Monday. Let’s hope its not too far off what you see below.
Big Borad is current thru games played on February 11th, 2021.
SEED LIST 1-68
Big Board 02.09.21
Today’s Big Board is updated to reflect the bracket posted today. This was posted prior to any of the games on February 9th.
Big Borad is current thru games played on February 9th, 2021.
SEED LIST 1-68
Big Board 02.06
We’ve got an action packed Saturday coming our way. Be sure to review my Bracket Watch primer for a rundown of impactful games being played this weekend.
Ahead of the first Saturday in February, here is a look at the Bracketology Big Board.
Thru Games played on Febrary 5th, 2021. Complete bracket coming early next week.
SEED LIST 1-68
Big Board 02.01.21
Time for a fresh look at the Bracketology Big Board.
Today’s Big Board is updated to reflect the bracket posted today and Louisville’s win over Georgia Tech. This was posted prior to any of the evening games on February 1st.
Thru some games played on February 1st, 2021.
SEED LIST 1-68
Big Board 01.30.21
Saturday is here! Be sure to review this Bracket Watch primer for a rundown of impactful games being played this weekend. The Big XII-SEC Challenge is upon us, minus Texas at Kentucky. The challenge will provide key opportunities out of conference for several schools in contention for the tournament. Another important game not listed in the primer to keep your eye on, is Texas Tech at LSU.
Ahead of the final Saturday in January, here is a look at the Bracketology Big Board.
Thru Games played on January 29th, 2021. Complete bracket coming early next week.
SEED LIST 1-68
Bracketology Big Board 01.26.21
If you haven’t already, check out Today’s Bracketology and notes.
Ahead of Tuesday Evening Games, here is a look at the Bracketology Big Board.
Thru Games played on January 25nd, 2021
Seed List 1-68
Big Board 01.23.21
Ahead of Saturday's busy day, here is a look at the Bracketology Big Board.
Thru Games played on January 22nd, 2021
1-68 Seed List.
Big Board 01.16.21
Wecome to MLK Day Weekend! A busy slate of games are coming your way today, somewhere near 110 in fact. Sunday and Monday fill most of the gap for teams not playing today, so we should have a mostly complete appraisal this weekend of College Basketball as a whole.
This will be my final Big Board based on a mixture of factors. In the early going, I have been approximating where teams belong based mainly on achievement, but also on some of the preseason expectations. The idea is to phase as much of that out as possible after this weekend. Beginning next week, I will begin taking harder stances on some of those resume results. Any team with less than 10 games played, are pretty difficult to evaluate. Today is an opportunity to learn more about Virginia for example, who travels to Clemson.
This weekend: Top Bracket Games (Saturday through Monday):
Heavyweight Games
Baylor at Texas Tech, Saturday
Michigan at Minnesota, Saturday
Kansas at Baylor, Monday
Ohio State at Illinois, Saturday
Florida State at Louisville, Monday
Conference Leadership Games
Virginia at Clemson, ACC - Saturday
Coastal Carolina at Georgia State, Sun Belt - Saturday
East Tennessee State at Furman, SoCon - Saturday
Northeastern at Charleston, CAA - Saturday and Sunday
Southern Utah at Eastern Washington, Big Sky - Saturday
Bubble Games
San Diego State at Utah State, Saturday
North Carolina at Florida State, Saturday
Western Kentucky at Marshall, Sunday
Florida at Mississippi State, Saturday
BYU at San Francisco, Saturday
Tier Summary
Competing for #1 Seed - Michigan’s emphatic win over Wisconsin did jolt the resume enough to surpass Villanova. Texas took a home loss to Mac McClung and Texas Tech. That second overall home loss for Texas is just enough to keep Villanova as the final #1 seed for today above the Horns.
2nd Tier - Wisconsin falling badly at Michigan but bouncing back nicely to win at Rutgers, quite a rollercoaster week for the Badgers. They remain in this upper echelon tier, but drop to a projected 4-seed.
3rd Tier - Welcome back Red Raiders. Texas Tech’s dramatic win gets them back into consideration for a protected seed.
In Safely - Oklahoma State’s marquee win over KU earlier this week brought the Cowboys in to the safe-zone for now. Also, something to monitor is Colorado’s incredible NET ranking - currently 9th.
In, Not by much - The Good: Purdue’s win at Indiana, BYU over Saint Mary’s on the road, and Wichita State’s dismissal of Tulsa. The Bad: San Diego State struggling mightily against a rugged Utah State defense, Rutgers lost at the RAC for the third time this year, and Arkansas is desperate for a tourney-caliber win. The ugly: Holding my noise while Duke hangs on to one of the final spots until we see a bit more from the Blue Devils.
Knocking on the Door - Richmond has seven wins in the top three quad’s right now and if Kentucky continues to bounce back, that can only help the Spiders inch closer to the cut-line. Pittsburgh has another crack at Syracuse today, which may be enough to get them in by next week.
Auto Bids - We welcome back:
Lipscomb as projected ASUN Champions
Bids Stolen: 0
Today’s Seed List 1-68 (Prior to tip-off):
Big Board 01.12.2021
Tier Summary
Top Seeds - Michigan and Iowa have creeped into this group. Michigan remains unbeaten and the Wolverines’ schedule is about to really crank up beginning with Wisconsin tonight.
2nd Tier - Missouri continues to maintain 2nd tier status with an impressive collection of wins compared to the field. The Tigers need to start winning again now though to remain in such good standing.
3rd Tier - Illinois and West Virginia have taken a step back after recent defeats.
In Safely - UConn and USC had tremendous weeks as I covered yesterday. You can see the progress here. And Colorado is building a sneaky good resume as well. Duke/Virginia are outliers due to preseason expectations, that should change soon as each of their schedules coming up get increasingly more difficult.
In, Not by much - We welcome Tulsa as an at-large and North Carolina back as our final two teams in for today. They have just a tad more going for their resume than WKU (first team out).
Knocking on the Door - Colorado State’s resume continues to intrigue. Unlike power conference teams, CSU may need to build their clout through blow out performances against the bottom-half of the MWC to move up the board. And the Rams, of course, can root for the opponents of teams directly above them.
Auto Bids - For the first time we welcome:
Drake as projected MVC Champions
Toledo as projected MAC Champions
Cleveland State as projected Horizon League Champions
Florida Gulf Coast as projected ASUN Champions
Abilene Christian as projected Southland Conference Champions
Decisions on Oklahoma State and Stephen F. Austin: Going forward we will be including Oklahoma State on the Big Board. The decision is due to the appeals process for the Cowboys being delayed and there is now a better chance than not that they will be able to participate because the hearing would be after March. On the flipside. we are no longer projecting Stephen F. Austin as the Southland Conference Champion, due to a request to take their postseason this season in lieu of 2021-22. Abilene Christian, welcome to the bracket!
This week: Top Weekday Bracket Games (through Friday):
Heavyweight Games
Texas Tech at Texas, Wednesday
Michigan State at Iowa, Thursday
Kansas at Oklahoma State, Tuesday
Wisconsin at Rutgers, Friday
Duke at Virginia Tech, Tuesday
Conference Leadership Games
Wisconsin at Michigan, B1G - Tuesday
Alabama at Kentucky, SEC - Tuesday
Cleveland State at Wright State, Horizon - Friday
Tulsa at Wichita State, AAC - Wednesday
Furman at The Citadel, SoCon - Wednesday
Bubble Games
Arkansas at LSU, Wednesday
Purdue at Indiana, Thursday
Stanford at Utah, Thursday
BYU at Saint Mary’s, Thursday
TCU at Oklahoma, Tuesday
Bids Stolen: 0
Today’s Seed List 1-68 (Prior to tip-off):
Bracketology Big Board 01.06 - First Board of the Season
Today reminded many in the College Basketball community that there are more important areas of life than debating a bracket projection or College Basketball. Hopefully this bracket post is a welcome distraction for you. One way or another, we had this set and ready this morning. Without further ado..
Welcome to the first of several Big Boards (we hope) in 2021. As you know by now, this season has been like no other. So before we breakdown the Bracketology teams, lets go over a few ground rules, shall we?
Today’s Big Board Parameters:
For all Big Board updates, Auto Bids: I continue to move forward with my Preseason pick to win the conference until they have a loss in conference. I did make one notable exception, with Kentucky. At 3-6 overall and other bid theives in the projection (Wichita State and UAB), I did not want to have the bracket represent three bids taken away at this stage, especially from a power conference with the unlikihood of a bid stolen.
Any teams with a noticebale shortage of games - Ex: Virginia, Duke, UConn, etc. A more predictive analysis is still being used to slot them. I had Duke and Virginia at the top of the food chain in preseason, and they have taken noticeable drops in tiers - however I don’t have enough data yet to support removing them from the field.
As an extension of #2, we have Auto-Bid teams like New Mexico State, EWU, Mount St. Mary’s, and Siena with very minimal data. They will continue to survive until they lose a conference game.
Teams that have played a prudent amount of games are being moved around the board more and more on their merits. Example, Michigan started on the bubble and his shot all the way up to 6 after a hot start with several games played. On the flipside, I’ve seen enough to move North Carolina completley out of the field for now due to the amount of games they’ve played and how they’ve performed.
The Big Board represents a comparison of teams within the reasonable tiers they are placed in. In less than two weeks, a complete bracket exercise will be conducted using the policies and procedures set forth by the NCAA Selection Committee.
Tier Summary
Top Seeds - The first four are about as established as you can ask for. Texas winning at Kansas made that clear. Gonzaga, Baylor maintain the top two spots with relative ease. You could make an argument for Texas to be above Villanova, but its mostly pointless at this stage because the Wildcats defeated the Longhorns in Austin.
2nd Tier - Hard to defend Michigan’s wins over the rest, but what I can defend is their undefeated record. In a cluster of teams with big wins, yet some losing - the Wolverines stand tall. Also, I thought initially that Missouri’s loss to Mississippi State would knock them further, but the resume for today is still very strong and the Tigers sit 12th overall.
3rd Tier - A mix of pathways like West Virginia falling and Minnesota/Clemson climbing within this bunch. These five teams have both significant upside and significant downside possibilities ahead.
In Safely - The higher end of these teams have had success already - like Virginia Tech and Alabama of late. Towards the bottom, remains more of a mystery- Duke and Virginia, as covered above.
In, Not by much - Kudos to Boise State and Western Kentucky for playing their way inside the bubble to date. Still have a lot of work to do to make an at-large bid a reality, however both also have solid chances to win auto bids as well. On the flipside, we still don’t know a lot about Arkansas or SMU’s resume - so the play-in game feels fair.
Knocking on the Door - Syracuse was projected out in preseason, and with limited games and the lack of quality wins, the Orange remain out. Drake has had a lot of attention and well-deserved. The Bulldogs are 13-0 and destorying teams, unfortunately no wins against the Top 150 yet meant we left them just out for now, but a huge two-game series with Loyola-Chicago in Des Moines this weekend can change that. We do have two projected bids stolen today, so if you want to imagine those spots going to at-large teams - you can pencil in Seton Hall and Providence.
Auto Bids - Some changes to highlight since preseason: Navy was the only team to sweep a Patriot League series, welcome aboard Midshipmen. UAB is in for now, despite not playing a CUSA game. The reason is because WKU has a loss, and the Blazers had a slightly better resume than North Texas of the unbeaten teams remaining. UIC, under new HC Luke Yaklich makes an appearance after a 2-0 start. They have a slightly better overall resume than Cleveland State in the Horizon, despite the Vikings impressive 6-0 league start.
Seeds 1-68
Projected Bids Stolen: 2. (Wichita State, UAB).
Preseason Bracketology Big Board 11.25.20
As an intro to the first in-season Big Board of the 2020-21 season, I thought it may be helpful to share the Preseason Big Board. This was not posted previously.
Here is where we started on the journey to Indiana.
2021 Preseason Bracketology: Projecting The Multi-Bid Conferences
Bradley is aiming for a 3-peat at Arch Madness in 2021.
With the endless amount of data available and daily changes in College Basketball’s current climate, the art of Bracketology has now become more of a comprehensive exercise. Putting the preseason bracket together really prepares me for the season, so this has materialized into an overall rewarding effort. In addition, the bracketing exercise itself is a valuable exercise (about 5-7 hours in length per bracket) any time of year. Looking for repeat matchups, following bracketing rules, what happens if BYU makes it and can’t play on Sundays, etc. The popularity of Bracketology increases each year and there is a lot to explore, review, and consider.
In 2021, we face extremely unique circumstances. Teams will likely play uneven amounts of games, have wide-ranging resumes, and some won’t even play a non-conference schedule. The focus for now becomes team strength and ensuring that we are selecting tournament teams who will at least be near .500 or above in conference (mainly a B1G and Big XII problem there).
Why do these Eleven leagues get so many At-large Bids?
The bracket preview brings us to the Multi-Bid conferences. With the power of TV Contracts and Coaching Salaries, the very large majority of control in College Basketball resides within these eleven leagues. That also translates to a lot of bids. In 2019, 35 of 36 At-Large Bids came from these ten conferences. The exception was Belmont, who had a fantastic resume but barely squeezed into the First Four. The inherit advantages for the ten leagues at the top of College Basketball is simple: more opportunities. Until the committee decides to not consider quality wins more important than a quality record, then the built-in advantage for power leagues will always be protected. The NCAA Tournament revenue model provides distribution per conference. For each tournament game in which a conference member participates, that equals one monetary share for the conference. The more shares for the conference, the more the league will be able to reallocate to their conference members. These ten leagues today are steadfast at sending as many members to the NCAA Tournament as possible, motivated not only by success but monetarily.
Tournament Bid Breakdown
Let’s get into these teams who are fighting to get to the dance and eventually Indianapolis in April. After spending months reading, listening, and tracking personnel changes, I’ve put my best guesses for this season together. You will notice that some leagues have a different league champion than the projected Auto-Bid winner. This was done by design, as it is realistic to see this in at least a couple of conferences. No surprise, the Big Ten leads the way with nine projected bids to start the season. The ACC, SEC and Big XII are next with six bids each. Coming off a bounce back season, we have the Pac-12 getting five bids and same for the Big East. The A-10 and AAC each are projected to snag three bids. The WCC and MVC bring in two each. And for now the Mountain West, just has San Diego State dancing - which could easily change down the road, so the MWC belongs in this group of conferences. Hopefully I am wrong overall here and we witness a few quality programs from the other 20 leagues play their way in to an at-large discussion, but this is our starting point.
Without further ado, here is how I see the power conferences shaking out this year. We can all laugh about this together come April:
Look for our complete Bracket posted later today and 1 thru 68 Seed List. Happy Hoops season!
2021 Preseason Bracket Preview: Projecting The One-Bid Leagues
Hofstra won the CAA Tournament in 2020, but were denied the opportunity to play in the Big Dance.
Bracketology. Here we are for another ride. Year #10 for me publically breaking down teams, resumes and working for those elusive answers from Selection Committee members. The pleasure of reviewing endless scenarios within the infrastructure of entirely unbalanced College Basketball scheduling began many months ago. The unpredictability of 2021 adds a new an important wrinkle to the Bracketology world: what changes will the committee be forced to make? How important is non-conference play now, when some programs won’t get the opportunity? In due time, we will know these answers and much more. Be sure to follow Bracketeer.org for continuous coverage all season and beyond.
We begin the 2020-21 campaign by looking at the projected one-bid leagues. One-Bid leagues are quite possibly my favorite and most frustrating part of doing Bracket work. I believe these leagues are not only intriguing to follow but in many cases overlooked by the committee when it comes to seeding. It is hard to imagine many or any debates between teams like Colgate, Gardner-Webb, and Bradley getting a 14 or a 15 seed in the committee room for example, but that is actually a pretty big deal for those leagues and the schools itself (it also can ding guys like me in Bracket Matrix scoring). The scales have been also tipped in more recent seasons for these leagues to not be able to schedule many or any opportunities for quality wins and it is increasingly more and more difficult to send more than one team to the dance from these 21 conferences specifically. Last season we saw only East Tennessee State inside the bubble on our final Bracketology Big Board, but the Buccaneers won the Auto bid regardless. Two-bid opportunities for the SoCon, CUSA and OVC could be in play in this abbreviated season. Bracketeer has moved the Missouri Valley Conference to the Multi-Bid category this season as we expect Northern Iowa or Loyola-Chicago to secure an At-Large this year. We can only hope to find another league in this position by the end of 2020-21. But it is traditionally difficult to predict where they will come from.
Many of my peer bracketologists will look at these leagues very quickly, and assume “okay this team is picked first” or “this team is currently in first” and just plug them into the bracket accordingly. We will not do that here, we envision which teams are setup well to win the Regular Season Championship, and separately look at which teams are setup to succeed in their specific conference tournament setting. Admittedly, once we get into conference play mid-season, I do change my projected auto-bid winner to reflect who has the inside track to the Conference Tournament #1 seed. It also works as an agent to recognize more programs throughout the season instead of just plugging in the same team every new bracket post. We love recognizing programs here!
For preseason purposes however, I believe it is more effective and thoughtful to predict both outcomes: The Regular Season Conference Champion and the Conference Tournament Champion. Not all tournaments are created equal, FAR from it. Some are on campus, some are in neutral locations and the bracket format varies tremendously from league to league. For these reasons, I have two sets of predictions and the Auto Bid winners will be applied to my upcoming Preseason Bracket. For extra fun, I’ve also added a Darkhorse team to track this year and Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year picks for each conference.
One-Bid League Predictions:
FINAL Big Board 2020 Season
Big Board 03.11.20
Last night brought us new conference champions from the Summit, WCC, CAA, and NEC. All four teams (NDSU, Gonzaga, Hofstra, and Robert Morris) were the top seed. That means very little changes to the Big Board over the past 24 hours. You’ll notice a few ordering adjustments have been made, but no teams changed seed lines overall.
BIG BOARD is reflected on the latest bracket:
Big Board 03.09.20
Monday can throw the best of us curveballs, and I am no exception to the rule. However, here is today’s projected Big Board. Look for a full bracket on Tuesday.
BIG BOARD
Big Board Update 03.07.20
Quick Pre-Saturday update before a very busy weekend ahead.
BIG BOARD
Big Board 03.06.20
BIG BOARD is reflected in today’s bracket prediction:
Quick Analysis - Big Board 03.04.20
The events of Tuesday Night required a quick reconstruction of the Big Board heading into Wednesday. We saw Purdue, Texas, Tennessee, and Rutgers walk away with significant wins. Marquette, Kentucky, Maryland, Penn State, and others had rough performances.
Board Shifts:
Rutgers continues to give me migraines on selection. I am going to slot them in today because they do have an impressive list of home wins. However, the Scarlet Knights are nowhere near safe. Major bubble game coming this weekend at Purdue
Purdue stays out of the projected field. There is no point in projecting both the Boilers and Rutgers into the field together. We know they face each other next and the loser of that game will likely be on the outside looking in. If the loser is Purdue, they are likely eliminated from at-large consideration. No team wtih 16 losses has been selected as an at-large in history.
Michigan State was a major mover again after winning at Penn State. Sparty comes in on the 3-seed line this morning. They are finally playing like the preseason #1 team. And their timing couldn’t be better. A regular season Big Ten Championship is within reach.
Texas enters the field after a major stunner in Norman last night. If you missed it, the clip is below. Matt Coleman banked in an off-balance three pointer to win the game. Both teams came in hot, and the Horns got a much-needed additional win over a team within the bubble and on the road.
Tennessee completely stunned Kentucky in Rupp. Major surprise on both ends - Kentucky was seemingly playing their best hoops of the year and the Volunteers were struggling most of the season. The Vols now get Auburn this weekend, and if they get that win they will start getting a serious look.
The bubble is messier than I remember it being all year. You’ll see on the board, from UCLA (41) down to Memphis (wrong side of bubble), there is a cluster of teams from varying backgrounds to choose from. Pay very close attention to these 15 or so teams from now until late next week, hopefully most of this will play itself out.
Here is where we stand heading into March 4th:
BIG BOARD
