INTRO
Welcome officially to 2023 Bracket Forecasting season!
The aroma, the sights, the freezing temperatures, upstart programs from the beaches, Louisville falling off a cliff - Our College Hoop season has now hit well past the mid-way point. It has been such a quick time since November 7th and this will all go by fast as well. Let us savor the moments while we can. And yes, it is finally time to get bracket forecasts together and organize all information that is available to the Selection Committee. If you are new to Bracketeer.Org, our site is dedicated to learning and anticipating all topics related to the NCAA Tournament selection process. Although a ton of history is researched, our understanding is that things will be tweaked over time and the committee members have changed each year. Makes the “Bracketology” exercise a difficult one in some respects. I’ll do everything and anything to bring you the most thorough and educational experience from here until Selection Sunday. And a lot of fun will be had along the way!
For the past week - a complete reset was required and a fresh set of eyes on over 120 different NCAA Tournament hopefuls. That work went into today’s forecast and begins to explain why it took me over a week to build. Not all leagues and team profiles are created equal. The Big 12 has a ridiculous six teams in the Top 16 for starters. Others like Kent State and Charleston have very little margin for error and chances overall to impress. The storylines are building early here in 22-23, come along for the ride!
ANNOUNCEMENTS
Prior to diving into the bracket forecast, I wanted to invite you to join along in a few Bracketology-themed shows and activities happening over the next six weeks or so. If you enjoy the work on this site, you will likely enjoy some deeper bracket talk coming too.
Fielding the 68 Show by FIELD of 68.- Every Monday and Friday at 5 PM ET. I will be on this Friday and the following two Fridays to begin with. We will ramp up episodes when we get near March. A composite bracket between the four bracketologists will be posted on @TheFieldof68 twitter’s feed on each day we have a show.
Hoops HD - For the diehards. HoopsHD will once again hold a Mock Selection Committee that I will participate in this March. Additionally, the host Chad Sherwood holds a bracket rundown show every Thursday for the next several weeks. Be sure to Subscribe to Chad’s channel and I have linked last Thursday’s episode.
CBB Mock Selection Committee - Coming soon! This is the second year partnering with Stadium’s Tim Krueger and well-known Bracketologists Dave Ommen of Bracketville, Brad Wachtel of Facts & Bracks, Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report, and Shelby Mast of the USA Today. It is an educational experience for College Hoops lovers and all people in the CBB industry.
TOP SEEDS
Let’s dive in, shall we?
The top two teams are pretty straightforward forward with the Boilermakers and Crimson Tide. Each team has defeated seven projected tournament teams. Purdue has four elite wins according to the Quad 1A breakdown today, and that is two more than Bama. Alabama also has one more loss overall, but much stronger predictive metrics. We will side with Purdue as long as they keep winning.
The other two top-seed spots required a full investigation into about six resumes. The four who were left behind, make up the two-seeds. Arizona, much to my initial surprise, graded out as the best option. The ‘Cats have six wins against the projected field, including four in the Q1A Elite territory. The Maui Classic champs are riding high in some of these tiebreaker areas despite having three blowout losses on their resume. Houston took a surprising home loss by one point against visiting conference-foes, Temple. Second loss this year for a Houston team that is usually dominant. The #1 team in all three predictive metrics still tab Houston as the best in the country and they have some evidence by winning at Virginia and knocking Saint Mary’s earlier this year. The benefit of the doubt went to UH mainly because Tennessee doesn’t have a notable true road win, Kansas is also missing strong wins away from home at the top-tier level, and K-State has the wins but the strength of schedule has been mostly light and the Wildcats have pulled out a surplus of 50/50 games. Again, this was very difficult and took some deep diving. Luckily we have a bunch of basketball left and these comparisons will all be much different very soon.
Iowa State eeked out UConn for the final 3-seed slot. Although the Huskies beat the Cyclones in Portland this season, the body of work in Ames is a touch better - backed by three elite wins to two for the Huskies. The final 4-seed was a tough one. I believed that Marquette had earned a four. The TCU drubbing at Kansas tipped the scales and pushed Baylor, Xavier, and Marquette down one spot. So the Golden Eagles landed as the most formidable 5-seed on the Big Board.
MIDDLE SEEDS
The Lobos of New Mexico are sitting in a good spot today after notching the win over Boise State. UNM has no time to rest as they get ready to play at Nevada tonight. Lobos headlined the six-seed line due to two Quad 1A Elite wins and a 5-1 record in its six hardest games - leading to a top-heavy profile.
Indiana has bounced back nicely in recent performances and played their way clear of bubble concerns for now. The Hoosiers have impressive road wins at Xavier and at Illinois to go along with five wins over the field. IU headlines the list of 7-seeds followed by Illinois, Providence, and North Carolina.
Florida Atlantic is the toast of the town, all towns USA that is. We have been raving about the Owls, seen the Owls in person, and probably love them more than most bracketologists. But the facts are the facts - an amazing record with just one loss, a road win at SEC Florida, and a lone loss to Ole Miss in a game where Michael Forrest was out. But no wins over a projected tournament team. The NET has FAU 18th, and the Owls own the 12th-best SOR in the nation. So to balance all of this, we felt the Owls belonged just above teams like Michigan State and Iowa (also 8-seeds). N.C. State rounds out the first ballot (a term used in the actual selection process for the top eight seed lines).
BUBBLE
Arizona State took a pair of home losses against the LA schools over the weekend. ASU was pretty comfortably in prior to the week, now find themselves back in their familiar danger-zone position. The lone win for the Sun Devils against a tourney team was over shorthanded Creighton, but the Devils do own three Q1 wins and a winning record in each of the combined quads. That actually stands out against a big chunk of the bubble. Devils are an 11-seed today with little margin for error going forward.
Coach Hurley and the Sun Devils will need to right the ship on the road this week at the Washington schools in order to hang on to its projected bid.
The “last four in” came in as Penn State, Kentucky, Nevada, and USC. The Pack may be a surprise to some for inclusion. They have things to like with competitive home wins over Boise State and Utah State to go along with seven wins in the Q2A area, an unusually high number. Those wins add up, and the sum of the parts was enough to convince me to add them. I write all of this about Nevada just hours before they host New Mexico, which could make us look smart or silly.
Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, and Ohio State are on the outside looking in, despite having three wins apiece against the projected field. The Panthers have four. The issue in totality comes down to selection balance. At this stage of the evaluation, it is critical to have certain criteria in order. Pitt has a 6-6 record in meaningful games (Top 3 Q’s) and has a Q4 loss that tips the scales for them to own a below-average body of work. A marquee road win would help overcome this, or just a tad more consistent winning. Road wins at NC State and Northwestern are encouraging and valuable, but simply not elite enough to overcome some of the poor qualities and ratings (mid-60s Resume and mid-60s predictives).
For the Buckeyes, its more severe in the record column - just 5-7 vs. the Top 3 Quads and that does not include the Q4 home loss to the Buckeyes. I do believe Ohio State would be heavily argued by the committee due to being a Top 20 predictive team, however. So because of that they are close to being in, and who knows, the actual committee might be persuasive enough to get them to Dayton for the first four.
Wake Forest has the opposite issue currently. The Deacs are fine as far as winning pct. within each quadrant benchmark. The problems come from a losing Away/Neutral record (4-5), sub-par ratings in a lot of the measurements and ultimately it was down to a bake-off against USC. We thought the Trojans were slightly stronger as a whole today. Good news for the Deacs community - the scheduling nightmare of 2022 won’t be an issue this season. One less factor to worry about in Winston-Salem after last season’s well-documented gap in scheduling.
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2022-23 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely, Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Wake Forest, Ohio State, Utah State, Oklahoma State
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Utah, Texas A&M
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